Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

cnocbui

genericgoon wrote: »

Based on the table provided of what qualifies as a "property tax" then it would seem the comparison on that site is indeed based on a combination of recurring (e.g. LPT) and non-recurring (e.g. inheritance) taxes. My focus was on recurring taxation which is slightly below average as per the OECD 2020 report on Ireland.

If you increase recurring property taxes, then Ireland's total property tax take will increase and deviate even further from the norm. But why not, many of Ireland's taxes are well above the norm and many don't even exist in other countries.

Go for it. Increase them as much as you like. I'm getting out of property ownership.

DataDude

awec wrote: »

I never understood why Foxrock was so popular. There is nothing in it!

It always makes me chuckle that the centrepiece of Foxrock is...the worst golf course in Ireland.
And the most expensive road in Foxrock (Kerrymount) is basically in Carrickmines. A very confusing place altogether. Have some relations who live there and they fully believe it's the best place in Ireland and everyone would live there if they could afford to.

awec

DataDude wrote: »

It always makes me chuckle that the centrepiece of Foxrock is...the worst golf course in Ireland.
And the most expensive road in Foxrock (Kerrymount) is basically in Carrickmines. A very confusing place altogether. Have some relations who live there and they fully believe it's the best place in Ireland and everyone would live there if they could afford to.

Lovely houses on Torquay Road, but the closest public transport is the bus stop on the N11 and I don't see too many residents hopping on the bus.

It's an odd little enclave.

Sweet.Science

Cyrus wrote: »

Ordinary house in an extraordinary location

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/uninterrupted-sea-views-in-dalkey-for-2-85m-1.4565420?localLinksEnabled=false&utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Gang+warns+it+will+publish+HSE+data+unless+ransom+paid+by+Monday+-+report&utm_campaign=lunchtime_latest_digest

Pretty ordinary alright

derekgine3

David McWilliams stated on his recent podcast the reason why the US saw 4.9% Inflation rate YOY is because the data was tracked April 2020 - April 2021 and in April 2020 many businesses did not foresee long lockdowns and had dropped prices significantly to attract customers after the predicted short lockdown would end in May.

All this QE/printing recently points to inflation but maybe i'm cynical in my old age and don't believe the narrative the MSM are putting out regarding sure thing inflation in the short/medium term. Experience has thought me to never trust the MSM when it comes to economics/housing.

cnocbui

DataDude wrote: »

It always makes me chuckle that the centrepiece of Foxrock is...the worst golf course in Ireland.
And the most expensive road in Foxrock (Kerrymount) is basically in Carrickmines. A very confusing place altogether. Have some relations who live there and they fully believe it's the best place in Ireland and everyone would live there if they could afford to.

It's possible that the best places to live in Ireland are not in Dubin at all.

DataDude

derekgine3 wrote: »

David McWilliams stated on his recent podcast the reason why the US saw 4.9% Inflation rate YOY is because the data was tracked April 2020 - April 2021 and in April 2020 many businesses did not foresee long lockdowns and had dropped prices significantly to attract customers after the predicted short lockdown would end in May.

All this QE/printing recently points to inflation but maybe i'm cynical in my old age and don't believe the narrative the MSM are putting out regarding sure thing inflation in the short/medium term. Experience has thought me to never trust the MSM when it comes to economics/housing.

Our old head of the CBI doesn't see inflation in the medium term either. One of the crucial factors in the future of property prices and it's as clear as mud at the minute!

"“There is nearly zero connection between any kinds of spikes under the reopening of the economy and what goes into the inflation trend,” Mr Lane told an online event"

"“When you’re climbing out of a hole, you’re still in a hole,” he said, adding that a rebound does not deliver a sustained recovery."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/reopening-price-spikes-do-not-mark-new-era-of-inflation-philip-lane-1.4570494

DataDude

cnocbui wrote: »

It's possible that the best places to live in Ireland are not in Dubin at all.

Agreed. Have tried to convince all my friends and family to move out west and form a commune, but no luck so far!

awec

DataDude wrote: »

Agreed. Have tried to convince all my friends and family to move out west and form a commune, but no luck so far!

Too wet out there, they're just right.

derekgine3

My daughter and son-in law are house hunting within Dublin at the moment and have noticed a recent trend.

It seems the poor quality/undesirable location properties have reached a price ceiling in certain areas. These properties should realistically only be going for 200/270k max (3bed) but have been advertised at 350k+ due to the recent market lunacy.

Every single inquiry for said properties over the past week has been met with prompt replies by estate agents for viewings and no bids have been received. All within the sample size have been on the market for at least 4 weeks.

This may not be a good indicator to infer anything from but in shark contrast to properties that are in ok locations it seems both private buyers/funds are not entertaining crazy high prices for thrash. Although private buyers may if they could borrow more. Just a thought.

JDD

DataDude wrote: »

Our old head of the CBI doesn't see inflation in the medium term either. One of the crucial factors in the future of property prices and it's as clear as mud at the minute!

"“There is nearly zero connection between any kinds of spikes under the reopening of the economy and what goes into the inflation trend,” Mr Lane told an online event"

"“When you’re climbing out of a hole, you’re still in a hole,” he said, adding that a rebound does not deliver a sustained recovery."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/reopening-price-spikes-do-not-mark-new-era-of-inflation-philip-lane-1.4570494

There probably won't be inflation in the medium term either. The old adage of the more money in the economy the higher risk of spiking inflation has not held true over the past eight years. It's an odd one, but it seems to be true.

Now, that being said, there may be inflationary spikes in certain areas rather than a wholesale rise in prices. Certainly it would seem that there will be a rise in property prices once the vaccination programme comes to an end and life returns somewhat to normal. There's such a huge increase in built up household savings, with a large chunk of those savers saying that they are going to use their new found savings for a house deposit/big purchase. It seems that a spike in prices is inevitable. I see nothing from the government that will prevent this spike.

As for Foxrock I agree with the other posters. From the outside it has literally nothing going for it. Not by the sea. No village to speak of. No amenities and not close to any public transport. What it is is essentially a gated community like you might see in America. I worked with an intern a few years ago who grew up in one of the fancy houses. She said that everyone knows everyone, they all go for dinner parties in each others houses, and the children all go out with each other - in fact are kind of encouraged to do so by the parents. It struck me as sort of a mirror version of a traveller halting site. Too insular for my liking.

cnocbui

DataDude wrote: »

Agreed. Have tried to convince all my friends and family to move out west and form a commune, but no luck so far!

Well, they have a point, it's not for everyone.

Ardillaun

yagan wrote: »

It just occurred to me that in all the talk about the property market at the moment I have not heard anyone in the public sphere use the phrase "getting on the property ladder". The housing ministers "help to buy unaffordable homes" isn't being swallowed by the public either.

The happy talk about property never fully recovered from the crash which is a good thing. Young people are getting wise to this game.

Graham

Ardillaun wrote: »

The happy talk about property never fully recovered from the crash which is a good thing. Young people are getting wise to this game.

'property ladder' wouldn't describe our current approach to homeownership.

What we have is more of a single property step with a semi at the top.

timmyntc

Graham wrote: »

'property ladder' wouldn't describe our current approach to homeownership.

What we have is more of a single property step with a semi at the top.

The reason being nobody wants to risk buying an apartment and then moving up the ladder later in life because they might get stung like those who bought in the last boom

JDD

timmyntc wrote: »

The reason being nobody wants to risk buying an apartment and then moving up the ladder later in life because they might get stung like those who bought in the last boom

Yeah, I'd never advise a young couple or young family to buy an apartment now. Not unless they are happy to live in it for the rest of their lives.

I think most of the Gen Z's accept that there will only be one property step in their lives - if they get to make that step at all. And that step will be taken at a age when, in years past, people would have been making their second step on the ladder. So it's no longer "buy a starter home, then trade up to your forever home when your children are young", now it's "save from the minute you leave college, and in 10-15 years you might be in a position to buy one property, of which you will be massively grateful for, and be prepared to live there for the rest of your lives".

I grew up in Sandymount and it's amazing to think that the houses that were perhaps perceived to be a bit downmarket are now going for €1-2m euro.

handlemaster

I think we approaching the near 300k for 3 beds in Dublin no matter where its located and possibly 190k /200 k for one bed apartments. Wouldnt be long hitting the boom year highs if the increases keep going like this.

Jmc25

timmyntc wrote: »

The reason being nobody wants to risk buying an apartment and then moving up the ladder later in life because they might get stung like those who bought in the last boom

Veering slightly off topic here but on top of being stung with negative equity after the last boom and essentially being stuck in apartments until fairly recently, many apartment owners had the added bonus of forking out tens of thousands of euro to fix construction defects which were down to developers not bothering to build apartment blocks to spec and the state not being bothered to check their own regulations were being followed.

DataDude

JDD wrote: »

There's such a huge increase in built up household savings, with a large chunk of those savers saying that they are going to use their new found savings for a house deposit/big purchase. It seems that a spike in prices is inevitable. I see nothing from the government that will prevent this spike.

See this being mentioned loads but is it not being a bit overblown? Back of the cigarette box calcs. Household deposits up 14%. There was already an upward trend so lets say 10% extra cash on average in peoples pockets due to COVID that they wouldn't have otherwise have.

I would wager that the big winners in all this are higher income people who are more likely to own a home anyway, but ignore that for a second.

Lets assume all prospective home buyers are 10% richer in cash terms than they'd have been without COVID-19. Lets assume the average deposit is 20%. So even if every home buyer ploughed every last cent of their extra cash into a house, you're only talking a 2% rise in the purchase price they can attain. Add in that "people" form only a part of the total transactions in a year (AHB's, LAs, REITs etc). It's a 2% increase in a subset of the market, not even the whole market.

Ok, perhaps you pull a few FTBers who wouldn't have been ready just yet forward and they can attain leverage they wouldn't have otherwise been able to. But that's just moving a small bit of demand forward a bit by a few months, will wash itself out quickly enough and doesn't add to aggregate demand over a longer period. It just creates a slight artificial hump in demand which will be followed by an equal and opposite artificial dip at some point in the future

JDD wrote: »

As for Foxrock I agree with the other posters. From the outside it has literally nothing going for it. Not by the sea. No village to speak of. No amenities and not close to any public transport. What it is is essentially a gated community like you might see in America. I worked with an intern a few years ago who grew up in one of the fancy houses. She said that everyone knows everyone, they all go for dinner parties in each others houses, and the children all go out with each other - in fact are kind of encouraged to do so by the parents. It struck me as sort of a mirror version of a traveller halting site. Too insular for my liking.

using this analogy anytime I speak to someone from Foxrock going forward.

Graham

timmyntc wrote: »

The reason being nobody wants to risk buying an apartment and then moving up the ladder later in life because they might get stung like those who bought in the last boom

and when we run out of a semi for everyone in the audience where do we end up?

Here.

derekgine3

So now that we know the government are doing sweet FA to prevent vulture funds from gobbling up the country, when do we take to the streets?

timmyntc

Graham wrote: »

and when we run out of a semi for everyone in the audience where do we end up?

Here.

It's hardly the fault of would-be buyers that things are the way they are?

The lack of suitable apartments for raising a family is one problem here - if you want to raise a family in this country you NEED a house, current apartments dont cut it.
And the boom-bust nature of our housing market (that everyone can see) leaves most people afraid to buy an apartment and buy in to the idea of the "ladder" because they've all seen how badly people who bought pre-08 got stung. Can't blame them for having the sense not to engage in the madness.

Lmkrnr

timmyntc wrote: »

It's hardly the fault of would-be buyers that things are the way they are?

The lack of suitable apartments for raising a family is one problem here - if you want to raise a family in this country you NEED a house, current apartments dont cut it.
And the boom-bust nature of our housing market (that everyone can see) leaves most people afraid to buy an apartment and buy in to the idea of the "ladder" because they've all seen how badly people who bought pre-08 got stung. Can't blame them for having the sense not to engage in the madness.

Apartments work in other countries. Visit any major city outside Ireland/UK and its all surrounded by apartments. Good infastructure in place, ie easy to get to work Via public transport.

Why don't they built proper apartments here near major city's instead of houses.

Graham

timmyntc wrote: »

It's hardly the fault of would-be buyers that things are the way they are?

Did somebody suggest it was?

Although I must admit I find the notion of the 'forever' home particularly bizarre.

Villa05

derekgine3 wrote:

All this QE/printing recently points to inflation but maybe i'm cynical in my old age and don't believe the narrative the MSM are putting out regarding sure thing inflation in the short/medium term. Experience has thought me to never trust the MSM when it comes to economics/housing.

There was a story last week there was a shortage of flakes for 99 ice creams
Low and behold on the same day what showed up on my bargain alerts only boxes of flakes at huge discount on amazon delivered to my door for free

Maybe Borris bought them in to ensre the Brits don't run out or perhaps the weather

Beware of the media

JimmyVik

I have a new prediction.
Intergenerational mortgages mortgages to be a thing in the next 5 years.

handlemaster

JimmyVik wrote: »

I have a new prediction.
Intergenerational mortgages mortgages to be a thing in the next 5 years.

Didn't happen during the boom. Won't happen now..

handlemaster

JimmyVik wrote: »

I have a new prediction.
Intergenerational mortgages mortgages to be a thing in the next 5 years.

Give it time. Dont get to excited prices will dip. Always do.

cnocbui

handlemaster wrote: »

Give it time. Dont get to excited prices will dip. Always do.

Could you post a graph showing these dips?

JimmyVik

JimmyVik wrote: »

I have a new prediction.
Intergenerational mortgages mortgages to be a thing in the next 5 years.

That's kinda what shared equity scheme is, isn't it? Anyone who needs the scheme to get a house, won't be able to afford to repay the equity portion back, meaning when you die, the state either takes their portion back (approx 50% of the house value perhaps) or the kids pay it back.




*50% is guesswork

MacronvFrugals

It seems renters are rapidly becoming discontent....



https://twitter.com/GerardBrady100/status/1395078923340365828?s=20

derekgine3

From general chit chat IRL, it seems people have this strange notion that prices will only keep going up forever and they need to purchase now before it's too late (sounds familiar).

Can we have some sort of rationale agreement that this isn't the case and prices will very likely dip in the short term and maybe even crash within 5-10 years.

fliball123

derekgine3 wrote: »

From general chit chat IRL, it seems people have this strange notion that prices will only keep going up forever and they need to purchase now before it's too late (sounds familiar).

Can we have some sort of rationale agreement that this isn't the case and prices will very likely dip in the short term and maybe even crash within 5-10 years.

You have proof of this of course? So no doubt with your your power to see into the future your already a very wealthy person as anyone who could predict what your trying to spin would be very very wealthy in 5-10 years time. Any chance of the lotto numbers for Saturday

derekgine3

fliball123 wrote: »

You have proof of this of course? So no doubt with your your power to see into the future your already a very wealthy person as anyone who could predict what your trying to spin would be very very wealthy in 5-10 years time. Any chance of the lotto numbers for Saturday

I never said i had proof, what a lame response and cliche question to chalk it off.


To expect property prices to continually rise for what would be 15-20 years if no dips occurred in the midst of a global pandemic of which we are yet to see the real economic effects of covid (thanks to government support payments) is completely asinine.


Prices will drop within the next 5 years, it would be a few % or a huge crash. A correction will be due once the true economic impact of covid is felt when the government sedation is removed from the equation.

Marius34

derekgine3 wrote: »

From general chit chat IRL, it seems people have this strange notion that prices will only keep going up forever and they need to purchase now before it's too late (sounds familiar).

Can we have some sort of rationale agreement that this isn't the case and prices will very likely dip in the short term and maybe even crash within 5-10 years.

You looking for rational agreement, with irrational comment.

am_zarathustra

Literally neoliberal capitalism means prices will rise, with occasional blips. It's not a coincidence rich people by properties and land.

growleaves

derekgine3 wrote: »

From general chit chat IRL, it seems people have this strange notion that prices will only keep going up forever and they need to purchase now before it's too late (sounds familiar).

Can we have some sort of rationale agreement that this isn't the case and prices will very likely dip in the short term and maybe even crash within 5-10 years.

I wonder has this monetary system that is in place since 2009, based on asset inflation, altered normal boom/bust dynamics though.

There has also been a 13 year bull market in stocks. Bull runs in the stock market typically last around seven years (figure quoted from memory).

I suspect prices can go higher for longer than anyone is expecting. Especially since physical assets are seen as a hedge against currency collapse.

derekgine3

Marius34 wrote: »

You looking for rational agreement, with irrational comment.

So it's irrational to predict prices will not keeping rising for the next 10 years?


Of course prices will fall within the next decade, we have record unemployment and haven't even seen Government supports remove yet and don't forget the tax payer will be footing the covid bill.

Marius34

derekgine3 wrote: »

So it's irrational to predict prices will not keeping rising for the next 10 years?


Of course prices will fall within the next decade, we have record unemployment and haven't even seen Government supports remove yet and don't forget the tax payer will be footing the covid bill.

There is no such notion here for the start:
"chit chat IRL, it seems people have this strange notion that prices will only keep going up forever"
but than you come up telling what will happen instead.

fliball123

derekgine3 wrote: »

I never said i had proof, what a lame response and cliche question to chalk it off.


To expect property prices to continually rise for what would be 15-20 years if no dips occurred in the midst of a global pandemic of which we are yet to see the real economic effects of covid (thanks to government support payments) is completely asinine.


Prices will drop within the next 5 years, it would be a few % or a huge crash. A correction will be due once the true economic impact of covid is felt when the government sedation is removed from the equation.

The problem with you thesis is people have been saying what your saying for the last 5/6 years. At some stage you might be right but that could be 10/20 years from now or 6 months from now. The one thing that is certain about property prices is no one knows how the market will play out. Case in point 2020/2021 the worst pandemic to hit the globe and prices have shot up. Very few if any seen that coming.

enricoh

fliball123 wrote: »

The problem with you thesis is people have been saying what your saying for the last 5/6 years. At some stage you might be right but that could be 10/20 years from now or 6 months from now. The one thing that is certain about property prices is no one knows how the market will play out. Case in point 2020/2021 the worst pandemic to hit the globe and prices have shot up. Very few if any seen that coming.

True re 2021 prices, but if we didn't have government money buying + renting such huge numbers of houses surely prices would have fallen. They literally are the market these days!

Post economy corona they won't have the money to spend as much anymore imo especially with corporation tax getting a hit.

Marius34

enricoh wrote: »

True re 2021 prices, but if we didn't have government money buying + renting such huge numbers of houses surely prices would have fallen. They literally are the market these days!

Post economy corona they won't have the money to spend as much anymore imo especially with corporation tax getting a hit.

I don't think they will decrease spending on housing by any significant numbers.

fliball123

enricoh wrote: »

True re 2021 prices, but if we didn't have government money buying + renting such huge numbers of houses surely prices would have fallen. They literally are the market these days!

Post economy corona they won't have the money to spend as much anymore imo especially with corporation tax getting a hit.

I flagged back in late 2019 that governments participation in buying and their rental schemes along with the paradigm change of Ireland property no longer being local and being an international market where the guaranteed rental scheme would put most stocks/shares to shame with regard to a guaranteed ROI and all throughout 2020 I was ridiculed saying prices would not be dropping and would stay fairly consistent. All indicator point to an upward trajectory with regards to prices how long that remains the case is anyone's guess but once demand > supply the prices are not going to drop. The big unknown is Sinn Fein they will be in power in the a few years I reckon a lot will depend on how full of sh1t they are when it comes to fixing the housing problem.

PropQueries

Some interesting comments from the housing minister today on AirBnB etc.:

“Under the new plans a property would not be allowed to advertise on the platform without the requisite planning permission.”

“He said that an Airbnb property which is occupied for three months during the summer season can make “significantly more money than a property rented out for 12 months. However, by letting properties on a seasonal basis, large amounts of homes across the country are lying vacant for the vast majority of the year.”

“During a time when we’re facing a critical lack of supply of housing, we can’t afford to have perfectly good homes lying empty for over 50 per cent of the year. “While tourists might want to book a holiday home for a two-week break during the summer, local families are left struggling to find a home at a price they can afford.”

Link to article in Irish Times today: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/minister-says-time-is-right-to-act-on-airbnb-1.4570720

Bass Reeves

derekgine3 wrote: »

From general chit chat IRL, it seems people have this strange notion that prices will only keep going up forever and they need to purchase now before it's too late (sounds familiar).

Can we have some sort of rationale agreement that this isn't the case and prices will very likely dip in the short term and maybe even crash within 5-10 years.

The problem with this assumption is for how long do you rent. At present rental costs are higher than mortgage costs. They can exceed mortgage costs by 7-10k/year. If houses crash in 2026 will they revert to 2012-2014-2018 or 2021 prices. If they do will you be able to access finance to benefit from that crash. Property prices seldom crash in isolation. Usually there are other financial problems as well. Who benefitted from the 2008-2014 crash. By the way it was as much a credit crisis as a property crash.

It was not just property. The price of cars dived faster and earlier. In early to mid 2009 car dealerships were awash with second hand cars that they refused to discount. A three year old Avensis was costing 15-16k by August the same car could be bought at auction for sub 10k

Maybe some here are right and there is a massive load of houses to come on the market over the next 6-12 month's. If there is where will the floor be. But maybe it will be 18-24 months or 30-40 months time. Will it be a 10%,20%,30% or 40%+drop.

Timing belt

enricoh wrote: »

True re 2021 prices, but if we didn't have government money buying + renting such huge numbers of houses surely prices would have fallen. They literally are the market these days!

Post economy corona they won't have the money to spend as much anymore imo especially with corporation tax getting a hit.

The government won’t cut back on spending on housing the political fall out of homelessness is an optic they will avoid at all costs. Much more likely to see new taxes or increase in existing taxes.

The only thing that will cause house prices to drop is when supply is greater than demand.

Whether that is caused by all the uninhabited properties that hitting the market at once. ( Which seems highly unlikely).

Or whether it is a drop in rent to a situation where it is cheaper to rent than buy (yet again unlikely to happen)

Or we see people pack their bags and emigrate ( more likely to occur but where will the go if things are as bad as you suggest...remember Ireland is not the only country to borrow billions.

Or we see low immigration into the country that would reduce demand for housing (this is a possibility but I think a lot of Irish have returned during Covid that will offset this)

The only thing I see as a possibility of prices dropping significantly is if we build more or if the government started building large scale council houses. That is just my thoughts on the matter and I think for the next few years we will continue to see more funds enter the market to chase yield...this may lead to lower rents as they have capacity to lower yields and still get a better return than other asset classes but they wouldn’t do that until they have to when supply to rent increase... but remember that as the rent supply increases it leaves less property for buyers which will support the high prices.

Marius34

Timing belt wrote: »

The government won’t cut back on spending on housing the political fall out of homelessness is an optic they will avoid at all costs. Much more likely to see new taxes or increase in existing taxes.

The only thing that will cause house prices to drop is when supply is greater than demand.

Whether that is caused by all the uninhabited properties that hitting the market at once. ( Which seems highly unlikely).

Or whether it is a drop in rent to a situation where it is cheaper to rent than buy (yet again unlikely to happen)

Or we see people pack their bags and emigrate ( more likely to occur but where will the go if things are as bad as you suggest...remember Ireland is not the only country to borrow billions.

Or we see low immigration into the country that would reduce demand for housing (this is a possibility but I think a lot of Irish have returned during Covid that will offset this)

The only thing I see as a possibility of prices dropping significantly is if we build more or if the government started building large scale council houses. That is just my thoughts on the matter and I think for the next few years we will continue to see more funds enter the market to chase yield...this may lead to lower rents as they have capacity to lower yields and still get a better return than other asset classes but they wouldn’t do that until they have to when supply to rent increase... but remember that as the rent supply increases it leaves less property for buyers which will support the high prices.

In short, I think there are 2 scenarios why property price could fall below 2020 levels.
1) Very significant increase in residential construction
2) Economic crisis, with very high unemployment (actual, not PUP)

I mentioned before, personally I don't think we will ever return to 2020 prices, because I don't think we are heading to any of those 2 scenarios in near term.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Some interesting comments from the housing minister today on AirBnB etc.:

“Under the new plans a property would not be allowed to advertise on the platform without the requisite planning permission.”

“He said that an Airbnb property which is occupied for three months during the summer season can make “significantly more money than a property rented out for 12 months. However, by letting properties on a seasonal basis, large amounts of homes across the country are lying vacant for the vast majority of the year.”

“During a time when we’re facing a critical lack of supply of housing, we can’t afford to have perfectly good homes lying empty for over 50 per cent of the year. “While tourists might want to book a holiday home for a two-week break during the summer, local families are left struggling to find a home at a price they can afford.”

Link to article in Irish Times today: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/minister-says-time-is-right-to-act-on-airbnb-1.4570720

Put enough into a brown envelope, and you can get an Irish minister to say and do almost anything, no matter how stupid.

wassie

derekgine3 wrote: »

So it's irrational to predict prices will not keeping rising for the next 10 years?

Of course prices will fall within the next decade, we have record unemployment and haven't even seen Government supports remove yet and don't forget the tax payer will be footing the covid bill.

In taking a long term horizon of 10 years, I would suggest that if Ireland experiences sustained positive population growth driven primarily by immigration, then yes its conceivable that house prices over the long term increase.

Timing belt

Marius34 wrote: »

In short, I think there are 2 scenarios why property price could fall below 2020 levels.
1) Very significant increase in residential construction
2) Economic crisis, with very high unemployment (actual, not PUP)

I mentioned before, personally I don't think we will ever return to 2020 prices, because I don't think we are heading to any of those 2 scenarios in near term.

I don’t think an economic crisis would cause a massive drop in prices unless we saw emigration.. even if someone ends up unemployed and unable to pay their mortgage they won’t be kicked out of the house so we wouldn’t see a fire sale that would crash the housing market. The only way I would see a fire sale is if enough people emigrated and sold their house.

Even with the construction of new builds we always look at no of units built but are these the right type in the right area...probably not as a lot of the units are flats for the rental market or houses in commuter towns whilst investors and the council sit on massive land banks and do nothing with them. Until we start using these assets there will continue to be a shortage. If the councils use this land for social/affordable housing then it would free up rentals and reduce the HAP bill.