Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117737792#Comment_117737792

There has been a capacity crisis with Limerick regional hospital, with significant numbers of patients on trolleys, for at least the last 18 years. Bigger hospital needed - duh!. Plans for such? - non-existant. The need for a decent national children's hospital was identifid in the mid 1990's.

Sorry, but you don't live in a country that can sort out the most basic of problems within a persons lifetime.

agoodpunt

small lls are screwed in ireland higher rents for them is higher taxes and rules keep on coming

Jmc25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117744972#Comment_117744972

Every pay rise for me means higher taxes too but it doesn't mean I'm not better off than I was previously.

padd b1975

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117702183#Comment_117702183

Cha-ching?

Timmyr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745396#Comment_117745396

Yea its good for us, but just shows how messed up it is here

Cookie_Monster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117702183#Comment_117702183

25% increase in year to June in NZ. Our build isn't even finished and its valued 20% higher last week for the bank than when we started, lol.

agoodpunt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745101#Comment_117745101

if you dont get paid do you still go to work? we always have some crazy comparsions to rental market am sure this has been made before.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117743866#Comment_117743866

So he sold it for more than the outstanding balance on the mortgage, which is not a loss at all. In fact, it is a gain, with the gain being the difference between the balance outstanding on the mortgage and what he sold it for. His personal issues are undesirable of course but irrelevant to the fact he made a financial gain, not a loss and to paint it as a loss is incorrect.

Jmc25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745927#Comment_117745927

The difficulties in evicting non paying tenants is a real problem and something needs to be done there. To be fair not many people would disagree with that and there have been some horror stories.

That issue won't be solved with a tax cut.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746311#Comment_117746311

Oh maybe he should have spoken to you. :)

If only you had bought it from him he wouldnt have had to have all those sleepless nights and his wife crying herself to sleep.

And you could have made that phantom profit.

There are loads of landlords around who cant make it work. If I were you, with your superior skills at the landlord game I would buy them all up cheap and retire to the Seychelles in a few years.

Jmc25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117744191#Comment_117744191

Driving them out by maintaining pretty much the same rate of tax as when they entered it?

There's loads of issues for small landlords - not least of all the difficulties in evicting non paying tenants. They're well documented on this forum.

Small landlords are leaving the market at a time of record high rents. In some cases the rents are double what they were 10 years ago. If this isn't enough of a financial incentive to keep them in the market then a tax cut won't be either.

The tax cut will disproportionately benefit those landlords who had no intention of leaving the market anyway.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117747035#Comment_117747035

If it was enough it might encourage other to enter the business.

I doubt it though. Damage has been done.

yagan

Haven't been able to keep up with this thread recently as I'd been busy helping a returning relative find a house in the south west, but made some interesting observations on the way. The budget was above the average price and they had no interest in new builds in estates so it was nearly all established homes with a good sized garden and a BER of no less than C.

Initially when general covid restrictions allowed viewings there was a rush on viewings, time slots were extremely tight, but now they seem to have slackened off entirely, zero problems getting a viewing.

One estate agent through which we viewed a few houses even said last week that in that segment interest has almost dried up. They did have a few international buyer buy covid bolthole sight unseen but they tended to be really expensive coastal properties.

I did ring one developer who was building an exclusive low density development aimed at around the 600K mark and two months ago they only had one unbooked house in the current phase. But when I rang last week it was back to five available and "going fast" in their words, although fast in reverse in reality.

I won't be surprised if we see in that price segment a good second and third quarter sales splurge before a fourth quarter lull.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745880#Comment_117745880

Is the NZ bubble as crazy as the one we had up to 2007 ?

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117747035#Comment_117747035

Reducing tax may go some way to stem the exit of small landlords. It is highly unlikely that the pro tenant legislation is going to change.

Rental income may have increased but the rpz, the difficulty in evictions and the extended notification periods for termination of leases have all favoured tenants at the detriment of landlords.

Anything anti tenant from a political perspective is political suicide and unless landlords get "something" they will continue to leave.

cubatahavana

Three apartment blocks in cabinteely sold for social/adorable housing. Two blocks in beechpark and one in Johnstown road (with another being built in front of it that probably will end up the same)

https://cabinteelylife.com/2021/08/14/entire-apartment-development-at-beechpark-cabinteely-purchased-by-social-and-affordable-housing-fund/?fbclid=IwAR02q5TCZPGYeMUjIqqu7MFmdb6VIyhiEDf_jhEQJV5u2JaG7Dr7V7FWA8w

Eclectic Econometrics

"€500m for developers to coax them back to building"

"Half-a-billion euro is to be provided directly to developers by Government in a bid to get them to overcome concerns about making housing schemes a commercial success.

The move, never before attempted in the history of the State, will subvent builders in creating homes in both cities and towns across Ireland.

It comes as property experts warn that the large-scale return of workers to offices from next month will trigger a deeper crisis in the availability of housing, particularly in the rental sector."

Go to the Independent .IE for the story.

I still can't post links again on this new s(h)ite.

TheSheriff

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117756547#Comment_117756547

Just heard this on the news.... Speechless. I think those waiting the last few years for a correction will be waiting many more...

Mr Hindley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117755728#Comment_117755728

Ah, FFS. I drive past these every week and had been telling myself 'well, at least that's some more properties coming onto the market soon, that should help'. I try to be calm and rational and see all sides of the argument, but this does just make you wonder why those of us expecting to work hard and pay for our own homes bother.

cubatahavana

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117757015#Comment_117757015

I agree with social policies to help people that cannot purchase a home, but I think as well that people that are looking to buy apartments as a first step into the ladder, are fecked with these policies. Have a friend earning 100k that cannot afford to buy an apartment on her own in a place near her work. If a sole purchaser on 100k cannot afford to buy an apartment in a good-ish area, but over 200 apartments are in the same-ish area going to social, there is something wrong.

cnocbui

With developers aware that 500 million is avaiable, it will be like the childrens hospital and every other thing the government does with extreme incompetence; so I guess that will mean 500 3 bedroom houses will be built, and then later there can be an enquiry with incredibly restrictive terms of reference to ensure no individuals are named or identified as being to blame, and millions more will be poured into the pockets of barristers and ex senior civil servants and retired judges to carry out this show enquiry.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117757237#Comment_117757237

How can she not afford an apartment?

I earn less then that and I wouldn't have a problem buying an apartment in Dublin.

TheSheriff

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117757237#Comment_117757237

What area is this? Not aware of any areas where an apartment cannot be got for 350k??

cubatahavana

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117757836#Comment_117757836

Of course, when you’re looking for a property, you set some goals. There are apartments for 350 in the area, but they’re either small, not modern, or built a long time ago with worse building standards. Most of those prices as well are asking prices, not what property is being sold at. I’m not here to comment on the standards that she wants for her apartment, but to say that over 200 apartments built to a very high standards in cabinteely have been removed from the market for first time buyers swiftly

jmlad2020

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117757400#Comment_117757400

She probably spends all her money renting a city centre pad, buys throwaway clothes and makeup maybe?

If I was on that sort of money I can guarantee I'd be saving at least 70% a year. But then again I'm just a Bloke🥴

AlmightyCushion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117758657#Comment_117758657

100k is roughly 60k after tax and that's assuming you aren't contributing to a pension which you really should be especially on that income. So, that's 18k a year, 1500 a month. If you share a place that could be doable enough but not if you rent on your own.

cubatahavana

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117758657#Comment_117758657

Not going to enter in arguments about what she spends as and what she doesn’t because that is only her business. Your approach looks terribly sexist, though.

Again, the main issue is that 200+ apartments in a prime location have been wiped from the market for benefit of the funds

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117756547#Comment_117756547

As an aside from the main point, the Indo pushing a myth that a large scale return to offices is happening next month, I wonder why? We can barely sit inside a cafe and a bar, yet they will be getting rid of mask mandates and social distancing in the next 3 weeks? It seems that January 2022 at the earliest is when large scale return to offices will happen, if it ever does. Irish Times have also changed the headline on their article from Saturday to put out a narrative that somehow offices are returning en masse in 3-7 weeks.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/cliff-taylor-property-crunch-coming-in-the-autumn-1.4646434

It's ludicrous not just from a covid point of view but also the government is risking the population physically confronting them on the streets with protests of the housing situation keeps getting worse. They will not be abandoning the message that workers should continue to wfh if possible if it would risk a surge in demand for rentals.

Edit: actually this morning there was an indication on the easing of restrictions published on the IT. It says that the government will only look to publish the revised roadmap at the end of August which means it won't come into effect until a few weeks later. This quote is why a mass return to the office is unlikely, maybe a very staggered, slow return through the autumn and winter in a best case scenario would happen.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-19-relaxation-of-social-distance-rules-under-consideration-1.4647842?mode=amp

Officials also considered setting a physical distance of one metre in workplaces, indoor public spaces and healthcare settings until spring 2022. Masks for shops and public transport and in healthcare settings are set to be retained until at least next spring.

yagan

Just saw the State Street announcement about not returning to their midtown Manhattan premises which they'll now sublet.

The bottom line is that the city cluster model as we knew it is going into permanent contraction. This will affect cities like Dublin with stock built specifically targeting the multinational financials who may now only need a full time presence workforce a fraction of its former operation.

For the financials WFH is a huge cost saver.

Amadan Dubh

Yeah, there's definitely a "premium" to be paid for having workers in an office versus at home, sometimes playing out as "workers who WFH likely to earn less". Doesn't hold much water to argue WFH commands a lower salary, as the employee going to the office is the one commanding a premium on the salary to cover his cost of commutting, maybe higher living cost for being in the big city, insurance, security, cleaning, electricity in the building, teas and coffees even or else rent to be paid to cover it all. It's hard to predict how the chips will fall but I think hybrid for those that want it is going to be the closest to a five day in office week that employees will get to. For many, as we can see from the surveys, they would prefer even just 1 or 2 days in the office maximum per week, if not full time wfh.

I've noticed how the estate agents publish these "state of the commercial market" reports and to me the past year or so it is very much about trying to polish a turd; with phrases such as "better than expected" and "outlook is good with enquiries up". It really shows that the narrative put out in the media and by those involved in the industry tells it as they want it to be rather than how it actually is. I can absolutely see how "no one saw the crash coming". It's a case of head in the sand and hoping the warning signs just disappear essentially rather than trying to adapt before the crash.