Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Heraclius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117843859#Comment_117843859

Based on what I can see on the CSO website 65,000 people immigrated to Ireland in the year to April 2021 of whom 30,000 were Irish nationals, 14,000 were in the non-irish, non UK, non-EU category. I think 56,000 left. I'm a bit confused about this 79% figure.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117843859#Comment_117843859

Well I'm glad you follow, I was misconstruing your intent.

About the incredulity you feel, and no doubt others are of equal skepticism at the outrageous brazenness of it all, you need to direct that emotion and energy toward the perpetrators of this scam.

They are getting away with it by separating facts, and then relying upon the general population to not have the wherewithal to join the dots.

They are not going to keep getting away with this, surely the sun is setting on this pretence of housing "crisis" versus the reality of artificial design.

lossless

To shelga and richardand above....

This is the truth of the situation, the personal hardships and consequences that simply cannot be captured in statistics or reports. The fallout of this circus show that's enriching a few sneaking rats, while large swathes of the country are being silently destroyed under false pretence.

Im aware of many similar stories.

Watch the numbers, follow the money, and then direct that resultant anger in constructive ways. At the very least, question the next politician you come across on the numbers that you'll know so well. See how well they know them. See what excuses or admittances they give.

If you're waiting for the profiteers to end the gravy train of their own accord, you'll never not be waiting.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117844147#Comment_117844147

What scam?

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117843997#Comment_117843997

I hope I'm not out of line but maybe you both should go on a date😘

If you hit it off you might have enough for a deposit 😉

mcsean2163

Property for sale in Ireland - 12318 Results

Myhome supply seems to be trending upwards as propqueries suggested. I wonder how many sellers build for all will flush out?

Maybe not that many...

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/government-s-plan-won-t-fix-our-housing-problem-1.4663495?

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117844345#Comment_117844345

Haha playing the match maker! My inbox is always open for PMs :D

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117844216#Comment_117844216

The whole economic system and property market by extension needs a constant flow of new people into the system to push more wealth up the pyramid. Our economy and property market depends on population growth, like a pyramid scheme! That and the metrics used to tell people the last ten years have been prosperous (ie GDP and high house prices), yet it seems to a lot of people that their real life does not reflect what they are being told - that is the scam.

People are finding that actually their own net cash after housing costs and other expenses are paid is getting smaller each year in a large way due to the massive inflation in the housing market but the government keep saying how great everything is. With the H4A plan, it very much comes across as gaslighting to be honest and one of the big holes in it is how 33000 homes per year is in any way adequate based on the population growth figures alone.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117843599#Comment_117843599

Going off the 2018 and 2019 figures given the pandemic disruption in 2020.

30,600 non - Irish nationals from outside the EU came to Ireland in the year April 2018 to April 2019 while 11,200 in that demographic emigrated during the same period.

I just question whether it is sustainable to have these levels of immigration until housing supply picks up and with non-EU people we have a higher chance of controlling it without EU free movement rules.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117844952#Comment_117844952

Yes, before the pandemic.

I just find it hard to believe that over 23,000 'other' immigrants came to Ireland in 2020. How many visas were issued, and what type of visas?

Also, I don't believe the immigration of the last few years will continue. Things have changed, we haven't seen the affects on the economy yet imo.

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117843920#Comment_117843920

Exactly this is the real effect of the housing crisis. It takes its toll personally on those who contribute most to society through hard work. I feel your pain and while it does disproportionately affect a younger cohort, it is an inter-generational issue none the less.

Their is no shortage of couples in their 40s with kids in the same boat who equally have continual worries at not being able to buy a house. Many of these have returned home from overseas to be with family. They now find themselves questioning what they have done, leaving places like Australia & Canada where they had great quality of life to a situation of stress and no end in sight. Their situations are precarious as they are at the mercy of not having security of tenure in their overpriced rentals, facing the stress of the very real prospect of having to pull kids out of schools (again) in order to house them by way of forced relocation should their landlords decide to sell up. That stuff keeps you up at night.

I know of some in their 50's who having done it tough working their way out of lost fortunes from the last recession, only to get back on their feet and be priced out of the market for the last few years and very worried at how they are going to live out their retirement.

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117845203#Comment_117845203

I would say a vast majority could easily be foreign students - It doesn't give the full story, but I suspect based on the following, it could be that students X students left. while Y students arrived and Z students ended up getting a job and decided to stay ?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40370168.html

An estimated 35,000 non-Irish nationals arrived to live here during the period, and 31,200 non-Irish nationals emigrated, to give a positive net migration among non-Irish nationals of 3,900 – down a staggering 28,300, or 86.2%, on the previous year.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/government-to-seek-revival-of-2-5bn-international-student-sector-1.4503824

In 2019, 44,000 international students studied in Ireland, either as undergraduates or postgraduates, providing substantial financial injections to universities and colleges

lossless

Regardless of who or where extra people are coming from, it is straight up duplicity to state

1) we are tackling the housing crisis by building x amount of homes

While simultaneously

2) we are also allowing a practically equal amount of people to move here

It therefore doesn't increase the housing supply and it won't lower prices. It maintains the "crisis".

They are not idiots. They have all the information to hand and have made conscious, well-informed decisions to continue selling this duplicity. This is the driving force of the "crisis" and has been for years, and they have stated unequivocally that they intend to maintain this nonsense for at least the next decade and beyond.

And why? Well, there's a shed load of money to be had.

This doesn't get any easier to understand. Build 'em, fill 'em, rob 'em.

Just watch how they meet their targets on net migration every year without fail, while every year they will build less housing without fail.

Sierra Oscar

I've noticed a trend for some new build developments in Dublin lately whereby the developers are reluctant to sell off the plans. Instead they are building the units and opting to sell upon completion. Looks like they are banking on sizeable price increases in the next 12 - 18 months and want to cash in.

This is in developments where previous phases were all sold off plan before construction began.

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117845598#Comment_117845598

Close to where I live, about 100 apartments where built (and later acquired by a REI) and put on the market for rent at crazy prices. Been over 6 months since they were completed and on the market and you can clearly tell only a hand full of people have moved into the place.

My gut also tells me they are hoarding rental units rather than reducing rental prices, assuming once rent falls, they can't increase the price quickly due to RPZ in place.

Although I don't see a crash in the future, the market will have to eventually correct itself as I believe rental prices are as high as they are because they are kept that way artificially.

I also do believe the rental market is linked with the property market, if people can't afford rent they will try and get on the property market at any cost as it will most likely be cheaper to pay a mortgage than rent.

Greed will be the final downfall, same as the last time !

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117844216#Comment_117844216

Perhaps he/she thinks they are adjusting the immigration tap to ensure the cup is always full, at the behest of their real constituency, large foreign corporations and REITs, in order to prop up the value of their assets and their aspirational rents? I certainly think the foreign corporation cargo cultism practiced in this country since the 90's would suggest that such a view may not be entirely baseless. You could even make a case for the allowance and encouragement of regional councils in promulgating and maintaining their 'not if you are not from around here, you don't' planning restriction filters (something the EU should curtail), which also might be serving to keep the pressure on the Dublin housing market as it restricts the alternatives.

Only net immigration/emigration stats are really meaningful.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117846068#Comment_117846068

You're correct, that is absolutely what I interpret from government statistics.

As said above, in 2020 there were approximately 20,000 housing units built.

Also in 2020 there was a NET addition of 29k extra people through migration. 6k of those were from the combined eu27, Canada, USA, UK and Australia. The other 23k were from "rest of world". During a pandemic, mind.

Here are the complicated mathematics of that...20k housing + 29k people = fixing the housing crisis...according to government maths, that is.

The governments "new housing plan" proposes 300k new builds by 2030.

The government's migration targets/projections (same thing) are that by 2030 they will accommodate a net gain of approximately 360k

So, 300k housing units + 360k net migrants = a piss take in terms of solving the housing crisis.

And what are the odds that both 1) they will not reach the housing goal and 2) the migration numbers will be higher?

This is a complete and utter shambles, it's shocking how poorly disguised it all is. The only thing more shocking is that many people seem completely oblivious to it. People need to start talking in real life about this, to challenge it, because we are being taken for a ride.

Eclectic Econometrics

A couple of points on the immigration issue.

First of all I do believe that immigration is having an effect on house prices. If net 50,000 people a year were leaving the country then in all likelihood prices would dropping. I say in all likelihood because deaths, marriages, divorces and children coming of adult age also have to be taken into consideration with the population figures, not just immigration. But for the sake of argument we say all things being equal etc.

You cannot fully stop non-EU as a percentage of those no-EU are spouses of EU citizens. A French man married to a Mongolian woman moves to Ireland, or whatever floats your boat. The spouse will have equivalent EU rights.

Non-EU people are not rocking up to Ireland and getting mortgages and buying new builds. They have to establish themselves in the country before a bank will provide them funds. I am guessing it is the same for EU people too, I do not think there is a EU wide credit score system being used here, correct me if I am wrong as I do not know.

There was a "20,000 people 20,000 new homes" suggestion made earlier in the thread. Again I agree with the overall point but it definitely isn't this simplistic. I know of 3 non-EU households near me. Two of the residences have 5 women a piece within them (they're both overcrowded). The places are lived in by women from India and the Philippines who are all nurses. The other place is a guy who lives opposite me and supports his 3 children and stay at home wife. That's 5 people per dwelling. Now, this is obviously anecdotal. However, if I were to guestimate how many houses the 20,000 people took up it would be a lot likelier to be closer to 5,000 than 20,000. With the Irish that came home in the pandemic I would estimate that a very large number of those literally went home, to their parents, as opposed to came back to rent or buy straight away, which they may end up doing after a while.

The final point I want to make is that, going back to the three households near me, these people are all making a positive contribution. The nurses are obviously doing an important job. The guy opposite me is contributing a disproportionate amount of tax than the average Joe. His cost of living, housing, food, kids etc., without any car/restaurant/holiday is going to be 60k a year easy. So he is earning a healthy six figures and the paying the tax that comes with that. I just make this point because more often than not, especially on this site, foreigners are depicted badly.

If I was going to stop non-EU people coming here, to improve housing availability, I would probably first start with stopping non-EU people who have absolutely no intention of living here from buying houses.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117846323#Comment_117846323

Those numbers I have quoted are net gains, everything taken into account already.

That is correct about 1 housing unit not necessarily being equal to 1 new arrival. That information doesn't exist. However, I would find it entirely implausible to suggest that the ratio is a high as 1:4. The majority of new developments are apartments, and increasingly so year upon year, 56% last year, iirc. That immediately reduces the potential occupancy down to a likely majority of 1:2, and decreasing over time.

The overall point remains that the vast majority of housing both built and proposed will be soaked up the second they appear on paper. As it stands, right this very second, the new housing plan is already rendered negligible.

As you say, if 360k people permanently left this country tomorrow, not to be replaced, the impact on the house prices and rent prices would be apparent within days. So it's only logical to assume the addition of 360k people NET will have the same effect.

As for whether anyone is contributing economically or not, we have a housing crisis. We do not have an economic crisis, we do not have a labour crisis.

Eclectic Econometrics

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117846370#Comment_117846370

Trust me when I tell you I agree with the overall point you are making. When I said if X amount left I assumed you would take it from that I also assume the opposite to be true.

I still think you are off with the number of houses non-EU people are taking up. The apartments example is not taking into consideration how other nationalities feel about apartment living. From what I gather from here, I am not Irish, the mindset is very much house with garden. But, in all other countries I have lived people are far more comfortable having 2 adults and a child, even two, in a two bed apartment, to use your example. How likely is it a guy on Deliveroo wages is in an apartment as opposed to a house share? etc.

As for your last point, the example I gave specifically mentioned nurses. You can find numerous articles online taking about the shortage of nurses in Ireland. So my point is, we can say that stopping non-EU people settling here would have an effect on house prices, I agree with you 100%, but also let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater.

mariaalice

Some eastern europens lived beside me about 15 years ago, a normal 3-bed semi it has grandparents in a one-bedroom, son and daughter in law in another bedroom and 18 years old grandson in another all worked, all of their friends live in a similar way. Immigration is at best a small issue in the housing issue.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117844952#Comment_117844952

Like with all things there needs to be a balance... there are genuine skills shortages in the country that need to be filled such as nurses, Doctors etc.

Immigration is required in Ireland if we are to be a central hub for all the tech companies etc. These immigrants pay taxes and yes they will need to be housed. Rather than blame the whole housing crisis on them maybe we should look to them to help resolve the crisis and help build the houses that should have been built over the past 5 years.

Blaming immigrants for the housing situation is a joke.... Is it their fault that not enough properties have been built... and the ones that have been built have been gobbled up by investors to rent out at crazy prices. Are they the ones objecting to building plans?

Yes they increase demand on housing but lets not forget that without them their would be a lot of people in Ireland without jobs as companies would look to locate somewhere else where they could find the required skills.

Just to be clear I am not saying we should have an open door to all immigrants but we need a certain amount of immigration of skilled labour to keep the economy growing.

Timing belt

Don't know does this include investors or not but gives an indication of who is buying houses in Dublin.

Source: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/fp/fp-cropp/characteristicsofresidentialpropertypurchasers2010-2019/locationofpurchasers/

javaboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848349#Comment_117848349

It’s worth bearing in mind that the 86.3% of Dublin purchases made by people giving a Dublin address are omitted. They would dwarf them all.

This chart gives the impression that British people or other EU purchasers are some major players when they really aren’t.

Hubertj

I see we’re back to blaming the foreigners again. It’s been a few months since that came up. Stay classy.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848326#Comment_117848326

"the whole housing crisis" is not being blamed on immigration.

I have posted before how there is a strong correlation between the explosion in rents and our net immigration figures, especially since 2015 (mainly because supply is not at 50000+ new homes per year). However, in my view there is a causation factor at play as well due to the lack of supply being built. It is not blaming anyone but part of the multi-factor explanation of how we are in a property bubble once again. These are largely educated people and here to take up work, according to the CSO, so they can of course pay the rents in Ireland, generally speaking (begrudgingly of course). The second point on that is that due to the rental market inflation, it has also pushed a lot of people into the home-buying market for reasons like "it's far cheaper to pay a mortgage than rent" or "there's no stability in the rental market" or else there were and are significant gains to be made by renting a house for an investor. The rental market bubble is so large that it has also assisted in creating the large increase in house prices, again in conjunction with other factors; with the main factor, creating a scary economic and property bubble, dwarfing 08, being low interest rates and QE from central banks.

Summary point; net immigration has been correlated to big increases in rents, due to absence of supply, therefore projected population growth can reasonably be interpreted to assume that it will also correlate to further increases in rents and house prices, unless supply dramatically picks up. But the H4A plan does not dramatically increase supply so it is in my view okay to question the sustainability of our immigration unless we can enhance our resources and infrastructure. Otherwise it's just a race to the bottom and we will see social unrest, populism and God knows what else.

And Hubertj, post reported as that is lazy, baiting and your presence is not missed I have to say these days with those hollow one liners.

Hubertj

Just giving my opinion the same way you give yours except I don’t write an essay to try and make a point.

it’s clear from reading the last page or 2 where things are going. Mad stuff altogether.

have a good Sunday.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848512#Comment_117848512

Being reductive isn't classy either

It's about recognising influential factors in terms of demand , if you have an immigration figure which is completely mismatched with the figure of new housing stock , shortages become a reality.

Making it taboo to identify these realities achieves little unless virtue signalling is the main priority?

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848594#Comment_117848594

No you engage in smug dismissals instead.

Hubertj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848787#Comment_117848787

It was just a dismissal, not a smug dismissal.

If you look a few posts up you will see that some genius is suggesting that immigration is the sole reason there are shortages of housing. Population increases and new home formation contribute to demand.

and why does it matter if an immigrant is eu or non-eu?