Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

gibgodsman

Trying to buy a house ourselves at the moment, sadly banks are only willing to give us 173k so have to make up the remainder ourselves, currently have 25k deposit, houses where we are go for 220-250 depending on the estate

Going to be a long and hard few more years of saving every penny, both working full time for the past 3 years

Wanderer78

gibgodsman wrote: »

Trying to buy a house ourselves at the moment, sadly banks are only willing to give us 173k so have to make up the remainder ourselves, currently have 25k deposit, houses where we are go for 220-250 depending on the estate

Going to be a long and hard few more years of saving every penny, both working full time for the past 3 years

i think this is all coming to ahead now, so hopefully something dramatic changes for you and your partner, in order to make the process easier, best of luck

PropQueries

Interesting letters to the editor in the Irish Independent today in relation to their readers opinions on the Government's housing actions this week.

One letter to the editor states that:

"Fine Gael’s mask has slipped regarding our housing crisis...when Taoiseach Micheál Martin said that housing was the Government’s number one priority, Mr Varadkar wanted to know when this was decided...So now we have the truth...Good luck to Fine Gael in the next election...it will need it."

Another letter to the editor asks:

"With regard to the 10pc stamp duty for multiple purchases of new housing stock, am I the only person who sees that this is almost beyond a joke?"

Both letters kind of sum up what many people in Ireland now think IMO

Link to Letters to the Editor in the Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/letters/fine-gaels-mask-has-slipped-regarding-our-housing-crisis-40447037.html

Cal4567

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/private-sector-to-build-majority-of-housing-under-government-targets-1.4570897


This in today’s IT does show some thinking into how the learned minds in the Department of Housing and Economic Social and Research Institute view our property future, although getting to 33,000 new properties each and every year is still some way off.

Assuming it were possible, the 33,000 would be made up of 11,800 private homes (35.76%), 5,600 private rental sector (16.97%), 4,100 new affordable homes (some sale/some rent?) (12.42%) and 10,300 (31.21%). These percentages don’t actually add up completely to 100%. I hope their other analysis to arrive at these conclusions were based on a sounder footing.

So, around a third new private sale homes, maybe a small number more if some of those proposed affordable units are for sale.

mcsean2163

This weeks all Ireland myhome figures.

date total
17/05/2021 12002
19/05/2021 11990
21/05/2021 11972


Not going in the right direction...

DataDude

mcsean2163 wrote: »

This weeks all Ireland myhome figures.

date total
17/05/2021 12002
19/05/2021 11990
21/05/2021 11972


Not going in the right direction...

The strong upward surge that had been occurring for the last 3 weeks definitely stopped this week. That said, even when it is growing, it does so on Friday evening - Sunday. Falls throughout Monday - Friday then jumps when you check again the following Monday. Hopefully same again next week.

Must just be how the EAs bulk upload them.

PropQueries

Cal4567 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/private-sector-to-build-majority-of-housing-under-government-targets-1.4570897


This in today’s IT does show some thinking into how the learned minds in the Department of Housing and Economic Social and Research Institute view our property future, although getting to 33,000 new properties each and every year is still some way off.

Assuming it were possible, the 33,000 would be made up of 11,800 private homes (35.76%), 5,600 private rental sector (16.97%), 4,100 new affordable homes (some sale/some rent?) (12.42%) and 10,300 (31.21%). These percentages don’t actually add up completely to 100%. I hope their other analysis to arrive at these conclusions were based on a sounder footing.

So, around a third new private sale homes, maybe a small number more if some of those proposed affordable units are for sale.

There really doesn't appear to be a plan outside of keeping rents at near enough the highest levels in the EU in order to keep attracting the funds into the market over the next ten years. Even that really isn't a plan as it's dependent on interest rates remaining at existing levels for the next ten years IMO

Given that small developers can obviously buy a site, build and sell a-rated 3 bed semi-detached houses down the country for c. €200k all in, why doesn't the state just parcel out their vast landbanks in Co. Dublin to these smaller developers and tell them to build.

Give 50 sites to each small developer and tell them that the site is free, no levies, no infrastructure costs, no tax on profits, no VAT etc. as long as they sell the end house for a maximum of c. €150k.

They would gladly accept such an offer and more importantly actually deliver IMO

timmyntc

PropQueries wrote: »

There really doesn't appear to be a plan outside of keeping rents at near enough the highest levels in the EU in order to keep attracting the funds into the market over the next ten years. Even that really isn't a plan as it's dependent on interest rates remaining at existing levels for the next ten years IMO

Given that small developers can obviously buy a site, build and sell a-rated 3 bed semi-detached houses down the country for c. €200k all in, why doesn't the state just parcel out their vast landbanks in Co. Dublin to these smaller developers and tell them to build.

Give 50 sites to each small developer and tell them that the site is free, no levies, no infrastructure costs, no tax on profits, no VAT etc. as long as they sell the end house for a maximum of c. €150k.

They would gladly accept such an offer and more importantly actually deliver IMO

Not a notion that would happen - not a very efficient use of valuable land either. We need to find a way to reduce the cost of building apartments - per unit they should be much cheaper than the equivalent house due to the bulk nature of developments and cheaper land prices - clearly thats not the case right now so the government should intervene to make it cheaper - although most govt intervention rarely has the intended results.

mcsean2163

DataDude wrote: »

The strong upward surge that had been occurring for the last 3 weeks definitely stopped this week. That said, even when it is growing, it does so on Friday evening - Sunday. Falls throughout Monday - Friday then jumps when you check again the following Monday. Hopefully same again next week.

Must just be how the EAs bulk upload them.

Interesting, I guess I'm disappointed that the predicted executor sales are not happening.

Was looking at this

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/26-quinns-road-shankill-dublin-18/4503082

Equivalent house sold for €200k less in 2017

10/07/2017 €447,500.00 79 QUINN'S ROAD, SHANKILL, DUBLIN 18, Dublin 18

We seem to be in real nose bleed territory now.

Lmkrnr

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Interesting, I guess I'm disappointed that the predicted executor sales are not happening.

Was looking at this

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/26-quinns-road-shankill-dublin-18/4503082

Equivalent house sold for €200k less in 2017

10/07/2017 €447,500.00 79 QUINN'S ROAD, SHANKILL, DUBLIN 18, Dublin 18

We seem to be in real nose bleed territory now.

Great news for anyone selling to move abroad. Anyone who bought the properties for sale in early 00s would have doubled in value at minimum.

Also how many people gave up a house when it was negative just to see the same house now back to or above the price they would of purchased it for.

PropQueries

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Interesting, I guess I'm disappointed that the predicted executor sales are not happening.

Was looking at this

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/26-quinns-road-shankill-dublin-18/4503082

Equivalent house sold for €200k less in 2017

10/07/2017 €447,500.00 79 QUINN'S ROAD, SHANKILL, DUBLIN 18, Dublin 18

We seem to be in real nose bleed territory now.

And the biggest home builder in the state, Cairn Homes share price today is €1.04. In 2017, it was c. €2.00.

One would think given that if we truly need to build c. 35k new housing units each year for the next ten years that their share price would be exploding. It's IPO price in 2015 was €1.00

Their share price doesn't appear to align with the current housing shortage narrative and if it's undervalued, it's the buy of the century IMO

JohnnyChimpo

PropQueries wrote: »

Their share price doesn't appear to align with the current housing shortage narrative and if it's undervalued, it's the buy of the century IMO

Really? Better than Netflix or Tesla? Wild.

Thank you for this latest reading of the tea-leaves though, it will be filed in the same place as the others

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

And the biggest home builder in the state, Cairn Homes share price today is €1.04. In 2017, it was c. €2.00.

One would think given that if we truly need to build c. 35k new housing units each year for the next ten years that their share price would be exploding. It's IPO price in 2015 was €1.00

Their share price doesn't appear to align with the current housing shortage narrative and if it's undervalued, it's the buy of the century IMO

"Cairn Homes sees revenue and profits tumble due to ‘material’ impact of Covid"
"Gross profit fell by almost 50pc to €42.7m in 2020 from €85.3m the prior year, according to annual results from the group."

https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/cairn-homes-sees-revenue-and-profits-tumble-due-to-material-impact-of-covid-40157190.html

mcsean2163

PropQueries wrote: »

And the biggest home builder in the state, Cairn Homes share price today is €1.04. In 2017, it was c. €2.00.

One would think given that if we truly need to build c. 35k new housing units each year for the next ten years that their share price would be exploding. It's IPO price in 2015 was €1.00

Their share price doesn't appear to align with the current housing shortage narrative and if it's undervalued, it's the buy of the century IMO

Actually may not be quite as bad as I thought. Here's one without the apostrophe before the s.

03/11/2017 €546,000.00 46A QUINNS ROAD, SHANKILL, DUBLIN 18

DataDude

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Interesting, I guess I'm disappointed that the predicted executor sales are not happening.

Was looking at this

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/26-quinns-road-shankill-dublin-18/4503082

Equivalent house sold for €200k less in 2017

10/07/2017 €447,500.00 79 QUINN'S ROAD, SHANKILL, DUBLIN 18, Dublin 18

We seem to be in real nose bleed territory now.

Nice house. South(ish) facing garden. Lot of potential. Don't know Shankill pricing that well but doesn't seem the worst value wise?

2018 was a big year for house prices so anything sold pre then is going to look very cheap in today's terms. That said I don't think they're equivalent. Looks like 26 is a solid 50% bigger than 79 was. Not disagreeing with your nosebleed prices comment though!

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/79-quinns-road-shankill-dublin-18/3851810

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

"Gross profit fell by almost 50pc to €42.7m in 2020 from €85.3m the prior year, according to annual results from the group."

https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/cairn-homes-sees-revenue-and-profits-tumble-due-to-material-impact-of-covid-40157190.html

Well, their share price in December 2019 (pre-covid) was c. €1.30. Still well below their 2017 heights of c. €2.00.

They also purchased many of their sites for c. €15k each, so should have a cost advantage over most of the developers who entered the market later on.

To me, that signals that investors don't truly believe this housing shortage narrative and that they believe either this Government or the next Government will most likely unlock all the post-crash supply that's most likely still hanging around in the background in the near future IMO

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, their share price in December 2019 (pre-covid) was c. €1.30. Still well below their 2017 heights of c. €2.00.

They also purchased many of their sites for c. €15k each, so should have a cost advantage over most of the developers who entered the market later on.

To me, that signals that investors don't truly believe this housing shortage narrative and that they believe either this Government or the next Government will most likely unlock all the post-crash supply that's most likely still hanging around in the background in the near future IMO

unless you have sat down and worked out what the cairn business is worth, what earnings they are likely to produce over the next 5-10 years and thus what a share should be worth please stop.

Villa05

Marius34 wrote:

"Cairn Homes sees revenue and profits tumble due to ‘material’ impact of Covid" "Gross profit fell by almost 50pc to €42.7m in 2020 from €85.3m the prior year, according to annual results from the group."

I thought share price was forward looking, anyone know how it compares to UK builders performance over the same period

mcsean2163

Cyrus wrote: »

unless you have sat down and worked out what the cairn business is worth, what earnings they are likely to produce over the next 5-10 years and thus what a share should be worth please stop.

Are you suggesting that only an actuary who has specifically studied the cairn business should be allowed to comment on cairn on an anonymous forum?

That strikes me as bullying.

wassie

No. I take it as saying you cant read anything into the share price of a company over the short term.

PropQueries

wassie wrote: »

No. I take it as saying you cant read anything into the share price of a company over the short term.

Short-term? It’s being falling near enough consistently since January 2018.

wassie

When you look at the last 12 months its up by over 50%.

Your point?

Marius34

Villa05 wrote: »

I thought share price was forward looking, anyone know how it compares to UK builders performance over the same period

Yes it's forward looking. Back in 2017/2018 they may have expected better profits. And now they may expect higher expenses than what they thought 3 years ago.

PropQueries

wassie wrote: »

When you look at the last 12 months its up by over 50%.

Your point?

And it’s still down c. 50% from it’s 2017 heights and circa no higher than it’s 2015 IPO price.

My point being is that investors don’t appear to believe the housing shortage in Ireland narrative and haven’t believed it for the past three years.

Otherwise, they would see an undervalued company and jump in IMO

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

And it’s still down c. 50% from it’s 2017 heights and circa no higher than it’s 2015 IPO price.

My point being is that investors don’t appear to believe the housing shortage in Ireland narrative and haven’t believed it for the past three years.

Otherwise, they would see an undervalued company and jump in IMO

This is another significant jump to a conclusion that is not realistically supported by the evidence.

Villa05

L1011 wrote:

This is another significant jump to a conclusion that is not realistically supported by the evidence.

Significant enough when the Taoiseach declared housing as the number 1 issue during the week and the share price is as low as its ever been

Certainly worthy of discussion

L1011

Villa05 wrote: »

Significant enough when the Taoiseach declared housing as the number 1 issue during the week and the share price is as low as its ever been

Certainly worthy of discussion

A portent of potential significant Government intervention in the housing market is not something that would send a private sector builders shares rocketing.

To try claim "this means there's no housing crisis" is a ridiculous jump.

wassie

As reported last month by Morningstar

Cairn Homes PLC - Irish homebuilding company - Revenue for 2020 slumps to EUR261.9 million from EUR435.3 million in 2019, while pretax profit drops over 100% to EUR14.8 million from EUR58.6 million.

Says current closed and forward order book of new homes underpins growth for 2021 with an underlying margin "comfortably higher" than reported margin in 2020. 2020 operating margin weakened to 9.3% from 15.6%.

"Our construction sites have been closed since the start of the year and assuming they fully reopen on 6 April 2021, Cairn's construction activities will be limited to just over 8 months in the current year. This will have an impact on the number of new homes which we will be able to build and sell in 2021," company says

...oh wait a minute, Taoiseach said what? SELL SELL SELL

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Are you suggesting that only an actuary who has specifically studied the cairn business should be allowed to comment on cairn on an anonymous forum?

That strikes me as bullying.

Are you suggesting that's what I said? Because it's not, your understanding of my post strikes me as something but I'll leave it to your imagination.

Explain the bullying thing to me please.

decreds

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i think this is all coming to ahead now, so hopefully something dramatic changes for you and your partner, in order to make the process easier, best of luck

Agreed. We've reached a tipping point, any FTB who is max leveraging right now is insane.


Prices will start dropping soon, imo.

Ace2007

wassie wrote: »

When you look at the last 12 months its up by over 50%.

Your point?

Also care to share link for over 50%?

Majority of growth assets are up that much over the last year, as they take into account the dip around covid. Look longer term to see the real impact.

Over 5 years Cairn are down around 30%

Marcusm

PropQueries wrote: »

And the biggest home builder in the state, Cairn Homes share price today is €1.04. In 2017, it was c. €2.00.

One would think given that if we truly need to build c. 35k new housing units each year for the next ten years that their share price would be exploding. It's IPO price in 2015 was €1.00

Their share price doesn't appear to align with the current housing shortage narrative and if it's undervalued, it's the buy of the century IMO

The current value will be strongly correlated to the ability to deliver a pipeline of built homes at a price point which can be achieved. Covid lockdowns have limited the ability for completions over the past 12 months but has also seen a movement of Labour out of Ireland and strong material price inflation. This means that Cairn will be pushed to deliver the expected number of completed homes and need to achieve stronger sales prices which may be difficult given the strong anti-funds narrative which will remove some of the available purchases. Taken together wit greater competition for builder resources (eg Land Dev Agency builds which will be bigger and last longer with a strong financial covenant behind it) will likely mean that Cairn will find it harder to deliver a pipeline and have negative margin pressures. In that light, given the relative under investment in small Irish listed companies, it’s not surprising that it’s share price has come under pressure.

PropQueries

Marcusm wrote: »

The current value will be strongly correlated to the ability to deliver a pipeline of built homes at a price point which can be achieved. Covid lockdowns have limited the ability for completions over the past 12 months but has also seen a movement of Labour out of Ireland and strong material price inflation. This means that Cairn will be pushed to deliver the expected number of completed homes and need to achieve stronger sales prices which may be difficult given the strong anti-funds narrative which will remove some of the available purchases. Taken together wit greater competition for builder resources (eg Land Dev Agency builds which will be bigger and last longer with a strong financial covenant behind it) will likely mean that Cairn will find it harder to deliver a pipeline and have negative margin pressures. In that light, given the relative under investment in small Irish listed companies, it’s not surprising that it’s share price has come under pressure.

But it’s been falling since January 2018. In December 2017, it was c. €2.00. In August 2019, it was €1.06. In January 2020 (pre-covid), it was €1.35. Today it is €1.04.

The significant and near continuous fall in its share price over the past three years doesn’t appear to have anything at all to do with Covid or the lockdown and appears (to me anyway) that investors don’t truly believe the housing shortage narrative.

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

The significant and near continuous fall in its share price over the past three years doesn’t appear to have anything at all to do with Covid or the lockdown and appears (to me anyway) that investors don’t truly believe the housing shortage narrative.

One thing that stands out for me in all there sites being closed up to April must mean they are not getting any of the social housing contracts.
That's a significant pie that they seem to be excluded from

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

One thing that stands out for me in all there sites being closed up to April must mean they are not getting any of the social housing contracts.
That's a significant pie that they seem to be excluded from

And Cairn Homes recently stated that:

“Our landbank comprises suburban and commuter belt low- density housing sites (c. 11,700 units at an average historic site cost of c. €32,000 per unit, including c. 8,000 starter home units at an average historic site cost of €21,000 per unit) and city centre, suburban and commuter belt high-density apartment sites (c. 5,100 units at an average historic site cost of c. €63,000 per unit).”

They appear to have a significant advantage in relation to cost per site over many other more recent developers in the market. They’ve basically purchased many of their Dublin sites for the price of sites outside Dublin where developers are currently selling a-rated three bed semis for c. €200k.

Remember, the proposed affordable housing bill puts a price cap on new build a-rated houses of c. €225k in Co. Tipperary and c. €450k in Co. Dublin. This is despite Cairn Homes average selling price last year bring c. €350k.

Call me insane, but based on its current share price, I believe investors currently (and have for the past c. three years) truly believe that house prices in Dublin are going to fall and fall significantly.

Unless, of course, the council is buying/leasing the end product.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

But it’s been falling since January 2018. In December 2017, it was c. €2.00. In August 2019, it was €1.06. In January 2020 (pre-covid), it was €1.35. Today it is €1.04.

The significant and near continuous fall in its share price over the past three years doesn’t appear to have anything at all to do with Covid or the lockdown and appears (to me anyway) that investors don’t truly believe the housing shortage narrative.

Look, I explain as a small investor, and who is thinking to buy Cairn Homes stock for a while. (I know its not a right forum)
It's all comes to the profit. Back in 2018 January, market was hot, Cairn Homes where a growing company, lots profitable projects had on the stream. It was already expected that they should have very good profits for 2018. And they delivered for that year, with 52m in profit for that year, and completing 800 units. With expectation for expansion and increase in profits
During 2018 market started to cool down, as well as expectations on expansion and profits.
In 2018 January, Investors may have expected that company should have no problem to generate over 50m in profit on average. Those expectations are mostly gone, since around second half of 2018. The projects in the future are not expected to be as profitable anymore, for various reasons, labor costs, material costs, restrictions, etc...
The last weeks news is not any good for investors, as it could cause some issues blocking some projects for REITS/Funds.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

Look, I explain as a small investor, and who is thinking to buy Cairn Homes stock for a while. (I know its not a right forum)
It's all comes to the profit. Back in 2018 January, market was hot, Cairn Homes where a growing company, lots profitable projects had on the stream. It was already expected that they should have very good profits for 2018. And they delivered for that year, with 52m in profit for that year, and completing 800 units. With expectation for expansion and increase in profits
During 2018 market started to cool down, as well as expectations on expansion and profits.
In 2018 January, Investors may have expected that company should have no problem to generate over 50m in profit on average. Those expectations are mostly gone, since around second half of 2018. The projects in the future are not expected to be as profitable anymore, for various reasons, labor costs, material costs, restrictions, etc...
The last weeks news is not any good for investors, as it could cause some issues blocking some projects for REITS/Funds.

As you say:

“Those expectations are mostly gone, since around second half of 2018. The projects in the future are not expected to be as profitable anymore, for various reasons, labor costs, material costs, restrictions, etc.”

Then, explain these a-rated three bed showroom semis in Co. Wexford currently asking €205k.

Link to MyHome here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/an-glasan-greenville-enniscorthy-co-wexford/4364806

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

As you say:

“Those expectations are mostly gone, since around second half of 2018. The projects in the future are not expected to be as profitable anymore, for various reasons, labor costs, material costs, restrictions, etc.”

Then, explain these a-rated three bed showroom semis in Co. Wexford currently asking €205k.

Link to MyHome here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/an-glasan-greenville-enniscorthy-co-wexford/4364806

We have explained this to you twenty time over the last 12 months so just look back over the threads and you will see the answer. Copy and pasted it on to a word document. Then increase the letter size from size 10/12 to 16. Set it to Bold and print it out. You will have it for reference. Then the next time you bring Cairns or any thing about build costs in Dublin up you will have it for reference

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

Has anyone argued that there is a land shortage?

So, if there’s no shortage of land in Dublin, outside of land costs, what’s the primary reason that the proposed affordable housing bill believes that a new build a-rated three bed semi should sell for c. €225k in Co. Tipperary and the exact same size and quality house should sell for c. €450k in Co. Dublin?

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

We have explained this to you twenty time over the last 12 months so just look back over the threads and you will see the answer. Copy and pasted it on to a word document. Then increase the letter size from size 10/12 to 16. Set it to Bold and print it out. You will have it for reference. Then the next time you bring Cairns or any thing about build costs in Dublin up you will have it for reference

What reasons? It’s obviously not a shortage of land.

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

So, if there’s no shortage of land in Dublin, outside of land costs, what’s the primary reason that the proposed affordable housing bill believes that a new build a-rated three bed semi should sell for c. €225k in Co. Tipperary and the exact same size and quality house should sell for c. €450k in Co. Dublin?

quote="PropQueries;117231599"]What reasons? It’s obviously not a shortage of land.[/quote]


We have explained this to you twenty time over the last 12 months so just look back over the threads and you will see the answer. Copy and pasted it on to a word document. Then increase the letter size from size 10/12 to 16. Set it to Bold and print it out. You will have it for reference. Then the next time you bring up the difference in site costs between Tipperary or Timbuktu and Dublin up you will have it for your reference

TheSheriff

Why can cairn homes build/sell a house far cheaper in Wexford compared to Dublin? This has to be the most answered question on this thread, and yet the question is still repeated constantly.

Repeat x100

MacronvFrugals

The Examiner's view for Tuesday and Friday -

They're stating the obvious but all this dysfunctional market will do is lead us down the road to the one thing official Ireland fears most...

In the months ahead, it will be interesting to see how willing the Coalition is to tackle the deep-seated reasons for our “speculative, volatile, and expensive” housing market, to quote the National Economic and Social Council.

The Government needs to pay attention to the disaffection felt by all of those locked out of the property market because the housing crisis is likely not only to shape the political agenda in the months ahead but determine the outcome of the next election.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael could find themselves evicted from power if they do not meet their needs.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/ourview/arid-40291511.html

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/ourview/arid-40294913.html

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

Why can cairn homes build/sell a house far cheaper in Wexford compared to Dublin? This has to be the most answered question on this thread, and yet the question is still repeated constantly.

Repeat x100

Hasn’t been answered at all IMO

If even Cyrus believes there’s absolutely no shortage of land to build on in Co. Dublin (see his quote today), what do you believe accounts for the c. €250k difference in build costs for the exact same build quality a-rated three bed semi detached house in Co. Dublin compared to Co. Wexford?

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

Hasn’t been answered at all IMO

If even Cyrus believes there’s absolutely no shortage of land to build on in Co. Dublin (see his quote today), what do you believe accounts for the c. €250k difference in build costs for the exact same build quality a-rated three bed semi detached house in Co. Dublin compared to Co. Wexford?

We have explained this to you twenty time over the last 12 months so just look back over the threads and you will see the answer. Copy and pasted it on to a word document. Then increase the letter size from size 10/12 to 16. Set it to Bold and print it out. You will have it for reference. Then the next time you bring what you consider the difference in housing supply costs between Tipperary or Timbuktu and Dublin up you will have it for your reference

AlmightyCushion

PropQueries wrote: »

Hasn’t been answered at all IMO

If even Cyrus believes there’s absolutely no shortage of land to build on in Co. Dublin (see his quote today), what do you believe accounts for the c. €250k difference in build costs for the exact same build quality a-rated three bed semi detached house in Co. Dublin compared to Co. Wexford?

Just because there isn't a shortage of land doesn't mean that land is cheap. There is no shortage of diamonds, you can go out and buy a load of diamonds tomorrow if you like. It will cost you though.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/site-the-village-newtowncashel-co-longford/3205004

5 acres with planning permission for 6 houses in Longford. The land is advertised at 150k which is 30k an acre and 25k per house.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/site-site-adjacent-40-taney-avenue-goatstown-dublin-14/3212033

A tiny sliver of land beside someone's house in Dublin 14 with planning permission for a house. It is advertised at 385k.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/site-wits-end-the-rookery-rathfarnham-dublin-16/2532127

0.86 acres in Rathfarnam with planning permission for 5 houses advertised at 1.45m.

PropQueries

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Just because there isn't a shortage of land doesn't mean that land is cheap. There is no shortage of diamonds, you can go out and buy a load of diamonds tomorrow if you like. It will cost you though.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/site-the-village-newtowncashel-co-longford/3205004

5 acres with planning permission for 6 houses in Longford. The land is advertised at 150k which is 30k an acre and 25k per house.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/site-site-adjacent-40-taney-avenue-goatstown-dublin-14/3212033

A tiny sliver of land beside someone's house in Dublin 14 with planning permission for a house. It is advertised at 385k.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/site-wits-end-the-rookery-rathfarnham-dublin-16/2532127

0.86 acres in Rathfarnam with planning permission for 5 houses advertised at 1.45m.

“There is no shortage of diamonds, you can go out and buy a load of diamonds tomorrow if you like. It will cost you though.”

So, you’re comparing the land market in Dublin to De Beers previous control over the diamond market.

That’s actually a very good analogy IMO

AlmightyCushion

PropQueries wrote: »

“There is no shortage of diamonds, you can go out and buy a load of diamonds tomorrow if you like. It will cost you though.”

So, you’re comparing the land market in Dublin to De Beers previous control over the diamond market.

That’s actually a very good analogy IMO

I just picked diamonds because they are expensive but not exactly short in supply. Maybe my analogy works better than I originally thought.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Hasn’t been answered at all IMO

If even Cyrus believes there’s absolutely no shortage of land to build on in Co. Dublin (see his quote today), what do you believe accounts for the c. €250k difference in build costs for the exact same build quality a-rated three bed semi detached house in Co. Dublin compared to Co. Wexford?

Has anyone argued that there is a shortage of land in County Dublin? It feels like you are creating both sides of the argument yourself .

It's certainly a finite resource and one that's more desirable depending on the exact location but it's not scarce overall.

PropQueries

PropQueries wrote: »

Hasn’t been answered at all IMO

If even Cyrus believes there’s absolutely no shortage of land to build on in Co. Dublin (see his quote today), what do you believe accounts for the c. €250k difference in build costs for the exact same build quality a-rated three bed semi detached house in Co. Dublin compared to Co. Wexford?

Because companies just add on fees for nothing, just because it's Dublin. There is no need except they just can.
I can get an electrician to completely rewire a house in Cavan or leitrim for approx 2/3K. The same house in Dublin will cost at least double, probably more. We know the reason is just because they can.
In the same way, they can build cheaper, they just don't.