Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Hasn’t been answered at all IMO

If even Cyrus believes there’s absolutely no shortage of land to build on in Co. Dublin (see his quote today), what do you believe accounts for the c. €250k difference in build costs for the exact same build quality a-rated three bed semi detached house in Co. Dublin compared to Co. Wexford?

It has been answered, many times over the past year.

You choose not to accept/acknowledge/engage with the answer as it does not support your narrative.

TheSheriff

bubblypop wrote: »

Because companies just add on fees for nothing, just because it's Dublin. There is no need except they just can.
I can get an electrician to completely rewire a house in Cavan or leitrim for approx 2/3K. The same house in Dublin will cost at least double, probably more. We know the reason is just because they can.
In the same way, they can build cheaper, they just don't.

While this may be partly true, an electrician in dublin will have higher costs for housing/salaries/possibly transport etc. This is perfectly normal in any capita city I would imagine.

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

While this may be partly true, an electrician in dublin will have higher costs for housing/salaries/possibly transport etc. This is perfectly normal in any capita city I would imagine.

An electrician working in Dublin does not necessarily live in Dublin.
It's just an excuse to double costs.

Himnydownunder

decreds wrote: »

Agreed. We've reached a tipping point, any FTB who is max leveraging right now is insane.


Prices will start dropping soon, imo.

I had been saying prices would drop also for years. But when is the question? You will eventually be right, but at the moment there is phenomenal talk of inflation. That could shove up house prices further, though admittedly it will make mortgages more expensive with higher interest rates. I would have said a year ago that Covid would make the housing market collapse, but houses only went up in value.

Cyrus

TheSheriff wrote: »

While this may be partly true, an electrician in dublin will have higher costs for housing/salaries/possibly transport etc. This is perfectly normal in any capita city I would imagine.

Remember we are posting in a thread where the chief contributor believes a new build in ballsbridge should cost 350k.

Mad_maxx

PropQueries wrote: »

And it’s still down c. 50% from it’s 2017 heights and circa no higher than it’s 2015 IPO price.

My point being is that investors don’t appear to believe the housing shortage in Ireland narrative and haven’t believed it for the past three years.

Otherwise, they would see an undervalued company and jump in IMO

2+2=5

Investors might just see a company that is not especially well ran or numerous other reasons

No automatic correlation with housing shortage

Mad_maxx

bubblypop wrote: »

Because companies just add on fees for nothing, just because it's Dublin. There is no need except they just can.
I can get an electrician to completely rewire a house in Cavan or leitrim for approx 2/3K. The same house in Dublin will cost at least double, probably more. We know the reason is just because they can.
In the same way, they can build cheaper, they just don't.

It must be a tiny cottage if you can get it rewired for three grand?

Bass Reeves

bubblypop wrote: »

An electrician working in Dublin does not necessarily live in Dublin.
It's just an excuse to double costs.

This as well has been explained twenty times. An electrician or any tradespeople living outside Dublin but working in Dublin will look for a premium above local rates to work in Dublin. As well they will want to be compensated for the extra time traveling to the job. No trades person el price a job 5 minutes away as a job 90 minutes away.

You will have the extra costs of materials. This is because of higher commercial rental costs the of. as any other capital city. In genera suppliers will be busier and when you go to order or collect materials it will take longer. Finally you have the extra transport costs to get to the site if it's a distance away.

mcsean2163

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

I just picked diamonds because they are expensive but not exactly short in supply. Maybe my analogy works better than I originally thought.

Propqueries has been saying if the land in Dublin is free (council land) why can't they build cheaply like they did previously in tallaght. I guess we'd need a non corrupt quantity surveyor to answer that.

He/ she seems to be saying the council is not getting value for money and intrinsic cost is lower.

There are many factors that add cost to an inner city Dublin build, wages, cranes and building difficulties as highlighted by other commenters. Propqueries argues that these are insufficient to make up the cost.

The only time I worked on a site in Dublin was the nineties and I couldn't believe the money the lads were getting. My guess is that it's probably the same now. Likely lads from Donegal, Belfast have to be offered a LOT of money to travel in covid19 times and that boosts wages for everyone. I don't know why but not many dubs seem to get into building despite huge wages.

I'm with propqueries to a degree in that I think the building could be done for less and don't believe Tom parlon, however how much less is questionable. I think the Dublin building labor market seems a bit broken at the moment.

TheSheriff

bubblypop wrote: »

An electrician working in Dublin does not necessarily live in Dublin.
It's just an excuse to double costs.

Yes, but SOME electricians working in Dublin DO live in Dublin and hence, will have increased costs.

If an electrician living in Dublin charges 5k to rewire a house, and people can pay this (as evidenced by the electrician having work), why would an electrician living in meath who regularly works in Dublin charge any less?

Your point is moot, just because you can get a good or service somewhere cheaper does not mean you should be able to get the same good or service for the same price everywhere.

This effect is across the board with the service industry and again, I would imagine is pretty reflective of any capital city in the context of that countries wider economic regions.

Mad_maxx

Mad_maxx wrote: »

It must be a tiny cottage if you can get it rewired for three grand?

No.
Regular 3 bed semi detached. Ordinary houses.

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

Yes, but SOME electricians working in Dublin DO live in Dublin and hence, will have increased costs.

If an electrician living in Dublin charges 5k to rewire a house, and people can pay this (as evidenced by the electrician having work), why would an electrician living in meath who regularly works in Dublin charge any less?

Your point is moot, just because you can get a good or service somewhere cheaper does not mean you should be able to get the same good or service for the same price everywhere.

This effect is across the board with the service industry and again, I would imagine is pretty reflective of any capital city in the context of that countries wider economic regions.

You have just proved my point.
Dublin adds extra just by being mentioned. It doesn't mean anything is actually more expensive.
I live in Dublin, but I do not get paid more then people in the same job as me living in the country.

MacronvFrugals

We have passed the aspirational price territory

https://twitter.com/crazyhouseprice/status/1396031720919650311?s=20

TheSheriff

bubblypop wrote: »

You have just proved my point.
Dublin adds extra just by being mentioned. It doesn't mean anything is actually more expensive.
I live in Dublin, but I do not get paid more then people in the same job as me living in the country.

Your extrapolating your scenario to others, I have not proved your point.

random_banter

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

We have passed the aspirational price territory

https://twitter.com/crazyhouseprice/status/1396031720919650311?s=20

Had this convo with the O/H yesterday. We’ve been looking in South Dublin for a year now. The last 9 months or so, it was very much a standard asking prices, maybe based on 2018(ish) prices. This, coupled with lack of supply and pandemic panic resulted in crazy bidding wars for these properties, all going over asking and sometimes up to 100k over asking (we’re talking 3/4 bed semi Ds).

Human behaviour relatively slow to adapt - and now we can see this reflected in asking prices the last month or two. Asking prices are pumped based on the bidding wars of the last 9 months. The asking for some places is truly sickening.

It’s utterly depressing. The prices are going up faster than we can save right now. Had the deposit ready to go based on 2018 prices and now need far more if we are to buy now. There is a great fear that we could get our pants pulled down if we buy in the near future. Willing to wait it out but how long we will be waiting is finger in the air stuff (as has been discussed on this thread).

As always, grateful to see discussion and debate of the property situation by all contributors in this thread.

mcsean2163

Great to see the HSE stepping in to take up the slack now that the private sector can no longer afford prime city center rates.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/corum-secures-the-hse-as-tenant-for-one-kilmainham-square-1.4561949?mode=amp

Next the civil servants should take over Grafton Street, who cares, it's only money.

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Great to see the HSE stepping in to take up the slack now that the private sector can no longer afford prime city center rates.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/corum-secures-the-hse-as-tenant-for-one-kilmainham-square-1.4561949?mode=amp

Next the civil servants should take over Grafton Street, who cares, it's only money.

29 euro a sq foot is less than half prime city center rates.

Villa05

Bass Reeves wrote:

This as well has been explained twenty times. An electrician or any tradespeople living outside Dublin but working in Dublin will look for a premium above local rates to work in Dublin. As well they will want to be compensated for the extra time traveling to the job. No trades person el price a job 5 minutes away as a job 90 minutes away.

At a time when our competitive advantages are being chipped away, it would be a brave move to grasp another opportunity of cheaper housing to gain significant advantage over our Western competitors.
Cheaper everything as a result of cheaper housing/property could help greatly in rebalancing our taxation system in ensuring that everyone contributes something and innovation and endeavour is rewarded over land and property sector lobbyists.

Childcare costs are half the quoted prices in Limerick over Dublin dito rents for staff 2 cities only 2 hours apart. The only reason this could be the case is high priced property as all other factors are equal

Imagine the standard of living people could enjoy if most of your high expenditure costs were reduced by up to 50%
Think of the revenue that is been lost from this country as increasingly property moves to a tax free status and landlords are foreign based

As a country are we moving backwards or forwards to the benefit of 1 sector and at the expense of all others plus the country and its people

mcsean2163

Cyrus wrote: »

29 euro a sq foot is less than half prime city center rates.

Truth! It's crazy to think the hse might work somewhere like city West and buy an asset instead that could be disposed at a profit.

https://www.daft.ie/commercial-property-for-sale/2050-orchard-avenue-citywest-business-campus-citywest-co-dublin/3212856

Rates must be lower on Grafton Street too at the moment. Perhaps they could do at deal with brown Thomas?

In retrospect, the d8 office is less than ideally situated beside the lowly Hilton and luxury Clancy quay apartments. Somewhere on Dawson Street would be more suitable offering a superior array of dining options.

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Truth! It's crazy to think the hse might work somewhere like city West and buy an asset instead that could be disposed at a profit.

https://www.daft.ie/commercial-property-for-sale/2050-orchard-avenue-citywest-business-campus-citywest-co-dublin/3212856

Rates must be lower on Grafton Street too at the moment. Perhaps they could do at deal with brown Thomas?

I thought it seemed like a reasonable deal for brand new top spec office space tbh!

PropQueries

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Propqueries has been saying if the land in Dublin is free (council land) why can't they build cheaply like they did previously in tallaght. I guess we'd need a non corrupt quantity surveyor to answer that.

He/ she seems to be saying the council is not getting value for money and intrinsic cost is lower.

There are many factors that add cost to an inner city Dublin build, wages, cranes and building difficulties as highlighted by other commenters. Propqueries argues that these are insufficient to make up the cost.

The only time I worked on a site in Dublin was the nineties and I couldn't believe the money the lads were getting. My guess is that it's probably the same now. Likely lads from Donegal, Belfast have to be offered a LOT of money to travel in covid19 times and that boosts wages for everyone. I don't know why but not many dubs seem to get into building despite huge wages.

I'm with propqueries to a degree in that I think the building could be done for less and don't believe Tom parlon, however how much less is questionable. I think the Dublin building labor market seems a bit broken at the moment.

If I read one more Government or media report that states the issues around the cost of delivering affordable housing in Co. Dublin are "complex", I will go insane

Here's a simple back of envelope solution that can be accomplished within one week and they can start tackling the real issues the week after and have solutions in place 2 weeks after that.

All they have to do is take the example of the new build a-rated three bed semi asking €205k in Co. Wexford below and draw up a two column spreadsheet in excel titled 'Co. Wexford House' and 'Co. Dublin House'.

The rows down the side can be land, profit margin, plasterer, electrician etc. i.e. all the costs associated with the house selling in Co. Wexford for €205k. Then type in the costs for the exact same house in the column titled 'Co. Dublin House' right next to it.

They would then be able to immediately spot where the additional costs associated with building the exact same house in Co. Dublin are and work on getting those additional costs associated with building the exact same house in Co. Dublin down to Co. Wexford prices. They may even spot that the additional costs associated with building the Co. Dublin house don't make any sense in any shape or form.

Link to €205k new build a-rated three bed semi on MyHome.ie here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/an-glasan-greenville-enniscorthy-co-wexford/4364806

cnocbui

If only Dublin were a small provincial town instead of the capital city of an entire country with 36% of it's population.

Look at property prices in Edinburgh, for example, the average house price there is only €370,000. In Dublin it's €275,751 ... wait what? Something's not right...

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

If I read one more Government or media report that states the issues around the cost of delivering affordable housing in Co. Dublin are "complex", I will go insane

Here's a simple back of envelope solution that can be accomplished within one week and they can start tackling the real issues the week after and have solutions in place 2 weeks after that.

All they have to do is take the example of the new build a-rated three bed semi asking €205k in Co. Wexford below and draw up a two column spreadsheet in excel titled 'Co. Wexford House' and 'Co. Dublin House'.

The rows down the side can be land, profit margin, plasterer, electrician etc. i.e. all the costs associated with the house selling in Co. Wexford for €205k. Then type in the costs for the exact same house in the column titled 'Co. Dublin House' right next to it.

They would then be able to immediately spot where the additional costs associated with building the exact same house in Co. Dublin are and work on getting those additional costs associated with building the exact same house in Co. Dublin down to Co. Wexford prices. They may even spot that the additional costs associated with building the Co. Dublin house don't make any sense in any shape or form.

Link to €205k new build a-rated three bed semi on MyHome.ie here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/an-glasan-greenville-enniscorthy-co-wexford/4364806

You are just trolling at this stage

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

If only Dublin were a small provincial town instead of the capital city of an entire country with 36% of it's population.

Look at property prices in Edinburgh, for example, the average house price there is only €370,000. In Dublin it's €275,751 ... wait what? Something's not right...

It's less than an hours drive to Mullingar. I would think if electricians, plumbers, plasterers etc. in Dublin are paid a multiple of midlands salaries, they would make the one hour drive each morning and evening. Especially as they generally start before 8 a.m. and wouldn't need to deal with traffic etc.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

It's less than an hours drive to Mullingar. I would think if electricians, plumbers, plasterers etc. in Dublin are paid a multiple of midlands salaries, they would make the one hour drive each morning and evening. Especially as they generally start before 8 a.m. and wouldn't need to deal with traffic etc.

Lots of them do, what point are you making exactly.

TheSheriff

Cyrus wrote: »

Lots of them do, what point are you making exactly.

Wasn't 'neutralguy' of forum past a carpenter who used openly say the only reason they drove to work every morn in dublin from drogheha was for the salary.

We live in dublin, recently had a kitchen worktop installed by a lad from somewhere in meath.

cnocbui

Cyrus wrote: »

Lots of them do, what point are you making exactly.

I think it's called attempting to divert.

Villa05

cnocbui wrote:

Look at property prices in Edinburgh, for example, the average house price there is only €370,000. In Dublin it's €275,751 ... wait what? Something's not right...

Something is not right indeed.

Latest CSO data puts Dublin median price at 390,000.

Median price would be significantly below average

cnocbui

Villa05 wrote: »

Something is not right indeed.

Latest CSO data puts Dublin median price at 390,000.

Median price would be significantly below average

https://www.thejournal.ie/daft-report-3-5395912-Mar2021/

THE AVERAGE HOUSE price rose by 7.6% in the year to March 2021, according to the latest Daft.ie House Price Report.

The average price during January, February and March of 2020 was €256,000 – this has increased to €275,751 this quarter, a rise of almost €20,000.

That was the basis for my figure.

Villa05

cnocbui wrote:

That was the basis for my figure.

Your quoting the national figure, Dublin is quoted at 398,127 plus that is an asking price report while cso is achieved price

cnocbui

Villa05 wrote: »

Your quoting the national figure, Dublin is quoted at 398,127 plus that is an asking price report while cso is achieved price

Whoops, my bad. Still, the point stands that Dublin and Edinburgh are near equivalent. Dublin house prices don't seem enormously high for an OECD capital city.

Cyrus

cnocbui wrote: »

Whoops, my bad. Still, the point stands that Dublin and Edinburgh are near equivalent. Dublin house prices don't seem enormously high for an OECD capital city.

This will be the basis for a restart of the Dublin is a sh1th0le rheoteric that predominated on an incarnation of this thread previously,

And round and round we will go

Until August at least when we can see if props predictions are coming true.

cnocbui

What was the prediction, I mostly skip over or just skim his posts? Was it a 30% rise in property taxes to preserve his pension?

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

As you say:

“Those expectations are mostly gone, since around second half of 2018. The projects in the future are not expected to be as profitable anymore, for various reasons, labor costs, material costs, restrictions, etc.”

Then, explain these a-rated three bed showroom semis in Co. Wexford currently asking €205k.

Link to MyHome here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/an-glasan-greenville-enniscorthy-co-wexford/4364806

I'm not sure how this is still related to Cairn Home price decrease.
In short, regular land around small towns are cheaper, than in the cities, all around the world. Based on economic fundamentals due to Demands/Supplies. If you ask again kids style question "Why", I consider that you are trolling by now.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm not sure how this is still related to Cairn Home price decrease.
In short, regular land around small towns are cheaper, than in the cities, all around the world. Based on economic fundamentals due to Demands/Supplies. If you ask again kids style question "Why", I consider that you are trolling by now.

It can’t be land costs. Because DCC said they can’t build houses on state land for less than c. €400k and I believe it’s now been agreed by both the bulls and bears here that there’s no shortage of land in Dublin.

It can’t be labour costs as otherwise all the tradesmen would be driving the one hour it takes to drive from e.g. Mullingar each morning to get that multiple times salary they’re apparently all getting in Dublin compared to the rest of the country.

It also can’t be material costs as otherwise new build a-rated 3 bed semi-detached houses in Co. Wexford wouldn’t be currently selling for c. €200k.

What economic fundamentals are you referring to that should result in a new build a-rated home in Co. Dublin selling for €450k (as per proposed affordable housing bill) compared to the exact same type of new build house currently asking c. €200k in Co. Wexford.

The price difference between Co. Dublin and Co. Wexford obviously has got near nothing to do with economic fundamentals, so it must a political decision for whatever reason IMO

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

It can’t be land costs. Because DCC said they can’t build houses on state land for less than c. €400k and I believe it’s now been agreed by both the bulls and bears here that there’s no shortage of land in Dublin.

It can’t be labour costs as otherwise all the tradesmen would be driving the one hour it takes to drive from e.g. Mullingar each morning to get that multiple times salary they’re apparently all getting in Dublin compared to the rest of the country.

It also can’t be material costs as otherwise new build a-rated 3 bed semi-detached houses in Co. Wexford wouldn’t be currently selling for c. €200k.

What economic fundamentals are you referring to that should result in a new build a-rated home in Co. Dublin selling for €450k (as per proposed affordable housing bill) compared to the exact same type of new build house currently asking c. €200k in Co. Wexford.

The price difference between Co. Dublin and Co. Wexford obviously has got near nothing to do with economic fundamentals, so it must a political decision for whatever reason IMO

Trolling and conspiracy.

drogon.

Kind of crazy but found this house in Kilcock

Looks like it was bought in an auction in 2020 for €265,000
https://bidx1.com/en/en-ie/auction/property/40363

Was done up nicely and put on the market for €450,000; since then has sold and assuming the seller would have gotten close to the asking price as well
https://www.property.ie/property-for-sale/96-The-Village-Green-Royal-Meadows-Kilcock-Co-Kildare/4626609/

Nice flip on the house if you ask me.

Graham

Mod Note

ok folks. As a courtesy to posters trying to discuss the property market in general, if you want to continue to discuss why a property in Dublin is more expensive than a property in Wexford please start another thread.

I think the last few days have proved this debate is just going in circles.

Do not reply to this post.

mcsean2163

<SNIP>

Mad_maxx

bubblypop wrote: »

No.
Regular 3 bed semi detached. Ordinary houses.

cant be done for that money , not a full rewiring

Mad_maxx

Mad_maxx wrote: »

cant be done for that money , not a full rewiring

Sorry, but I know if two 3 bed semi detached houses completely rewired for approx 3K.
One was last year, the other about 3 years ago.

hillsiderunner

cnocbui wrote: »

If only Dublin were a small provincial town instead of the capital city of an entire country with 36% of it's population.

Look at property prices in Edinburgh, for example, the average house price there is only €370,000. In Dublin it's €275,751 ... wait what? Something's not right...

https://www.hometrack.com/uk/insight/uk-house-price-index/
"hometrack" shows £241000 average for Edinburgh at the moment, at the current exchange rate that's just under E280000.

That would put them at the same level when Edinburgh feels a good bit cheaper. But maybe it's an issue of average size/quality in Edinburgh being better (even though there are far more apartments in Edinburgh, the dimensions tend to be pretty good).

Bass Reeves

bubblypop wrote: »

Sorry, but I know if two 3 bed semi detached houses completely rewired for approx 3K.
One was last year, the other about 3 years ago.

Rural electricians prices have gone up by 40-50 % in the last 6 months

Bass Reeves

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Rural electricians prices have gone up by 40-50 % in the last 6 months

Jaysis! That's some jump. Good for them then
Amazing how the prices rise for no reason!

decreds

Cyrus wrote: »

This will be the basis for a restart of the Dublin is a sh1th0le rheoteric that predominated on an incarnation of this thread previously,

And round and round we will go

Until August at least when we can see if props predictions are coming true.

It's ironic that Props receives grieve for his predictions, despite the fact that props probably has the best record of predictions of every poster on this thread combined.


The dogs in the street know the property market would've crashed last March if it weren't for insane Government intervention which has only kicked the can down the road.



Smart money is leaving the market as we speak, just before we have to pay the piper. Couple it with the fact we will probably be in and out of lockdowns for the next few years, it wouldn't be dramatic to expect a 20-40% drop in Dublin property prices within the next 5 years.

decreds

Marius34 wrote: »

Trolling and conspiracy.

How is this trolling, it's very immature and quite lazy to counter a post you don't like with trolling/tin foil hat theories.

TheSheriff

bubblypop wrote: »

Surely the property market in general includes property prices in the city and the country and the reasons behind those prices?

Not really when the discussion for near on a year is "cairn homes can build a house in Wexford for 200+k, I can't understand why a house in dublin doesn't cost the same'

Repeat the above evrytime someone explains why a house in dublin costs more than a house in Wexford.

This poster is trolling.

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

Not really when the discussion for near on a year is "cairn homes can build a house in Wexford for 200+k, I can't understand why a house in dublin doesn't cost the same'

Repeat the above evrytime someone explains why a house in dublin costs more than a house in Wexford.

This poster is trolling.

No, I don't believe he is, I think many posters don't agree with him.
It's not correct the way he is spoken about on thread either, shouldn't be allowed, it isn't in other forums.

If course property prices in Dublin and the country should be discussed, it is the property thread, not the Dublin property thread.

Ardillaun

There was a time when property inflation was seen as a sign of our prosperity so we are making some progress, and we’re not alone in struggling with these problems - the second largest country in the world seems to be running out of space to build homes where people want them.

Canada’s housing market is running hotter than just about anywhere else in the world.

But despite the anxiety about irrational bidding wars and fears of the bubble bursting, what's fundamentally driving it is a worsening imbalance between supply and demand: Buyers want large homes but increasingly can’t have them because there isn’t enough space in and around the major cities where people work.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-18/the-second-largest-country-in-the-world-is-running-out-of-land

For Ireland, though, soaring prices in Dublin could affect our ability to attract young workers for the MNCs and all the other jobs they create in the economy. In the coming era of international tax harmonization we must stay competitive on cost of living, and housing is a key part of that bill.

Ace2007

drogon. wrote: »

Kind of crazy but found this house in Kilcock

Looks like it was bought in an auction in 2020 for €265,000
https://bidx1.com/en/en-ie/auction/property/40363

Was done up nicely and put on the market for €450,000; since then has sold and assuming the seller would have gotten close to the asking price as well
https://www.property.ie/property-for-sale/96-The-Village-Green-Royal-Meadows-Kilcock-Co-Kildare/4626609/

Nice flip on the house if you ask me.

I've seen the same house on two different property websites for with 200k in difference, I think some website either misleadingly put the wrong price, mistakenly put up the wrong price or are just chancing their luck. if you check that house out on the property price register - you see if sold for 271k this year.