Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Marius34

decreds wrote: »

How is this trolling, it's very immature and quite lazy to counter a post you don't like with trolling/tin foil hat theories.

Because its absolutely false information that land in cities are same value as outside urban areas.
And he keeps repeating this nonsense.

Ace2007

random_banter wrote: »

Had this convo with the O/H yesterday. We’ve been looking in South Dublin for a year now.

As always, grateful to see discussion and debate of the property situation by all contributors in this thread.

Don't want to come across the wrong way, but this is half the problem - people have a certain area they want to live in and just look and stay within those boundaries.

Why pick an area in Dublin that is expensive - you will probably get a bigger house on the North side for instance, or in Maynooth, Navan or surrounding commute belts.

House prices and even rent are only stupidly high because people want to live in certain areas, or choose not to live in others. Or want the modern houses etc.

Post Covid, majority of office type roles and business are talking about a hybird model of working - 2/3 days in the office etc, so do you need to live in the city? If even say your are a doctor - you could always move to a hospital not in Dublin etc.

I'm sure South Dublin is lovely etc, but remember when you search myhome.ie etc that instead of searching an area, maybe search by budget just to see what you can get elsewhere.

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

At a time when our competitive advantages are being chipped away, it would be a brave move to grasp another opportunity of cheaper housing to gain significant advantage over our Western competitors.
Cheaper everything as a result of cheaper housing/property could help greatly in rebalancing our taxation system in ensuring that everyone contributes something and innovation and endeavour is rewarded over land and property sector lobbyists.

Childcare costs are half the quoted prices in Limerick over Dublin dito rents for staff 2 cities only 2 hours apart. The only reason this could be the case is high priced property as all other factors are equal

Imagine the standard of living people could enjoy if most of your high expenditure costs were reduced by up to 50%
Think of the revenue that is been lost from this country as increasingly property moves to a tax free status and landlords are foreign based

As a country are we moving backwards or forwards to the benefit of 1 sector and at the expense of all others plus the country and its people

Childcare cost will be higher in Dublin because there are more alternative jobs available that pay more. Property prices won’t account for all the differential in price. I would also hazard a guess that insurance will be be more expensive for childcare in Dublin because with the population there are probably more claims.

Bass Reeves

bubblypop wrote: »

Jaysis! That's some jump. Good for them then

They would have been my h cheaper than lads based in lEger urban area's up to until six months plus ago. However the back log of work created by COVID has created a shortage in not just electrical trades people bit trades people in general. Passed through Tralee the other day a big sign outside a site looking for ground trades people basically building labourers.

Locally construction machinery drivers are earning 700/ week, there a lad going to a site in Cork an hour away for 1100/ week. Those are before tax wages. The lad going to Cork is getting part of 1100 paid as a meal and travel allowance 40/ day.

It not all extra for the electrician's. You go into an electrical or plumbing providers between 8 and 10 and you will be there 40-50 minutes where before you be out in 20 minutes. Materials are gone up 20-30%.

Murph85

random_banter wrote: »

Had this convo with the O/H yesterday. We’ve been looking in South Dublin for a year now. The last 9 months or so, it was very much a standard asking prices, maybe based on 2018(ish) prices. This, coupled with lack of supply and pandemic panic resulted in crazy bidding wars for these properties, all going over asking and sometimes up to 100k over asking (we’re talking 3/4 bed semi Ds).

Human behaviour relatively slow to adapt - and now we can see this reflected in asking prices the last month or two. Asking prices are pumped based on the bidding wars of the last 9 months. The asking for some places is truly sickening.

It’s utterly depressing. The prices are going up faster than we can save right now. Had the deposit ready to go based on 2018 prices and now need far more if we are to buy now. There is a great fear that we could get our pants pulled down if we buy in the near future. Willing to wait it out but how long we will be waiting is finger in the air stuff (as has been discussed on this thread).

As always, grateful to see discussion and debate of the property situation by all contributors in this thread.

Your current living scenario would be a large decider in my opinion, on what you should do... I.e are you being robbed paying market rent. Public or rivate sector jobs etc...

Villa05

Timing belt wrote:

Childcare cost will be higher in Dublin because there are more alternative jobs available that pay more. Property prices won’t account for all the differential in price. I would also hazard a guess that insurance will be be more expensive for childcare in Dublin because with the population there are probably more claims.

Higher paying jobs in Limerick also and it is one of the few areas with above average incomes in the state.
Childcare requires third level qualifications,

Population size is irrelevant to insurance pricing more premiums, more claims. If any the more premiums the greater spreading of risk

Insurance higher in Limerick City, there is a premium on limerick addresses as it is perceived to have a compo culture for motor insurance. I would be surprised if this premium stretched into public liability

Cyrus

decreds wrote: »

It's ironic that Props receives grieve for his predictions, despite the fact that props probably has the best record of predictions of every poster on this thread combined.


The dogs in the street know the property market would've crashed last March if it weren't for insane Government intervention which has only kicked the can down the road.



Smart money is leaving the market as we speak, just before we have to pay the piper. Couple it with the fact we will probably be in and out of lockdowns for the next few years, it wouldn't be dramatic to expect a 20-40% drop in Dublin property prices within the next 5 years.

He is predicting it in the next few weeks and what predictions has he gotten correct I must have missed them.

If the market was going to crash last March why will it take 5 years for your prediction of a 40 percent decrease to occur? Surely it will happen pretty quickly once the covid supports are removed.

Finally what government intervention has stopped the market from collapsing right now? Because they aren't buying at all levels of the market for social yet those levels are still holding up.

Cyrus

decreds wrote: »

Agreed, there is a commonality among those who undermine him here.

And a commonality among those who support him even though his central thesis is just daft.

If his predicted price drops for August come anywhere close I'll stop posting here for good.

Cyrus

bubblypop wrote: »

No, I don't believe he is, I think many posters don't agree with him.
It's not correct the way he is spoken about on thread either, shouldn't be allowed, it isn't in other forums.

If course property prices in Dublin and the country should be discussed, it is the property thread, not the Dublin property thread.

If you or anyone else has an issue with a post then report it, or set up your own safe space WhatsApp group or something where no one is allowed disagree with anyone no matter how outlandish the argument.

People want to belive he is right I presume because they want to buy a house, cheap if possible.

mcsean2163

bubblypop wrote: »

If I own a site in Dublin, outright.
And I own a site in Leitrim, outright.
Can I get a house built for the same price on either site? If not, why not?

Exactly, that's been propqueries line of questioning.

I think it's an interesting question especially in relation to social housing and the cost to build on government land.

random_banter

Ace2007 wrote: »

Don't want to come across the wrong way, but this is half the problem - people have a certain area they want to live in and just look and stay within those boundaries.

Why pick an area in Dublin that is expensive - you will probably get a bigger house on the North side for instance, or in Maynooth, Navan or surrounding commute belts.

House prices and even rent are only stupidly high because people want to live in certain areas, or choose not to live in others. Or want the modern houses etc.

Post Covid, majority of office type roles and business are talking about a hybird model of working - 2/3 days in the office etc, so do you need to live in the city? If even say your are a doctor - you could always move to a hospital not in Dublin etc.

I'm sure South Dublin is lovely etc, but remember when you search myhome.ie etc that instead of searching an area, maybe search by budget just to see what you can get elsewhere.

After living in other parts of Dublin and the world we’d love to be within 20-25 minutes of our aging parents. It’s where we grew up, so it’s where we want to settle and have our own family. Our support network is there and we’ll be the support network for them.

I don’t disagree that this advice would help other people who don’t have ties to an area they want to live in, but for us it’s not about it being a nice place, it’s family and work requirements (we already know we’re required back in).

jill_valentine

Cyrus wrote: »

If you or anyone else has an issue with a post then report it, or set up your own safe space WhatsApp group or something where no one is allowed disagree with anyone no matter how outlandish the argument.

People want to belive he is right I presume because they want to buy a house, cheap if possible.

I don't agree with most of his angle or even his routes to those conclusions, but it seems to me there's a reflexive vitriol towards the fact he's making them at all that is not warranted.

As an example, his assessment of what Cairns' share price means - I don't agree that's very meaningful due to how many other factors could be in account.

Is it really so much less meaningful though than the REIT prices - which were being freely discussed by several journalists on social media all week - that it warrants quite personally charged swipes in response? If people are trying to divine the future from one, why is applying the same logic to another pounced on like a character failing rather than just an argument we're not buying?

The amount of daily willy waving in this thread is its least interesting feature.

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

If you or anyone else has an issue with a post then report it, or set up your own safe space WhatsApp group or something where no one is allowed disagree with anyone no matter how outlandish the argument.

People want to belive he is right I presume because they want to buy a house, cheap if possible.

You can disagree with his posts all you want, on thread.
I just said I don't believe it is fair to talk about a poster on thread. And I did report the post

mcsean2163

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Exactly, that's been propqueries line of questioning.

I think it's an interesting question especially in relation to social housing and the cost to build on government land.

Exactly
And no-one can answer it.
Except just because it's 'Dublin '

Graham

Mod Note

if you have an issue with a post, report it.

Leave the moderation to the mods please.

fergus1001

once these buckos with the savings able to pay beyond the 3.5 times salary dry up there will be a correction in the market to the central bank level regardless of supply issues,

if nobody can afford it nobody can buy it

Ace2007

random_banter wrote: »

After living in other parts of Dublin and the world we’d love to be within 20-25 minutes of our aging parents. It’s where we grew up, so it’s where we want to settle and have our own family. Our support network is there and we’ll be the support network for them.

I don’t disagree that this advice would help other people who don’t have ties to an area they want to live in, but for us it’s not about it being a nice place, it’s family and work requirements (we already know we’re required back in).

But if you consider the size of Dublin for instance, or even south Dublin, if everyone who is born or raised in that area wanted to live there, then the cost of houses will be sky high - that's before even thinking about those that want to live there because it might be a nice area.

What if the house prices continue to sky rocket and you are priced out of the area - what then ? Which i think your beginning to see.

I think from reading your posts, your set on area for the wrong reasons. You'll end up buying a house that you either can't afford, or isn't what you are looking for and potential end up in negative equity and be stuck - all because you want to be near a "support network".

Are you going to be in the same job in 20 years time? What if the job moves to a different location? what if you move jobs etc.

Marius34

bubblypop wrote: »

If I own a site in Dublin, outright.
And I own a site in Leitrim, outright.
Can I get a house built for the same price on either site? If not, why not?

Probably not, I'm not an expert in building costs in different locations, won't tell you why. But I can tell you with confidence that same size Dublin site is much more expensive, than Leitrim, it ridiculous to think otherwise.
And if you want to sell that land in Leitrim and Dublin, would you sell it for the same price? if not, why not?

mcsean2163

random_banter wrote: »

After living in other parts of Dublin and the world we’d love to be within 20-25 minutes of our aging parents. It’s where we grew up, so it’s where we want to settle and have our own family. Our support network is there and we’ll be the support network for them.

I don’t disagree that this advice would help other people who don’t have ties to an area they want to live in, but for us it’s not about it being a nice place, it’s family and work requirements (we already know we’re required back in).

Yep, i hear ya. We're in a similar boat. Personally, I'd have been delighted to exit planet Dublin but it's not an option.

For those of us with parents in Dublin, options are limited. It feels as if i've been sold a pup. Study work hard, study, more hoops and then you might finally afford a house worse than your parents but consider yourself lucky that your life savings went into that house because....

If I'd any sense I'd have gone into construction instead of university and just bought a few houses in the nineties and rented them out. We then could have bought a house anywhere when needed. The taxes I've paid/ sacrifices made and for what? So that a developer reaps all the rewards? So that the public sector can do SFA?

Anyway, grumpy old man territory now but yeah. For many with family in scd especially, options are limited.

Good luck!

cnocbui

fergus1001 wrote: »

once these buckos with the savings able to pay beyond the 3.5 times salary dry up there will be a correction in the market to the central bank level regardless of supply issues,

if nobody can afford it nobody can buy it

REITs and all the people who aren't beholding to the banks can afford it. If the central bank or government try to force property prices down, Dublin becomes even more attractive to foreign investors, with higher yield, relative to alternatives.

Property prices and affordability were far better prior to the neocon economics that espoused globalisation which has lead to general populaces becoming relatively poorer and the rich, vastly richer at their expense.

Governments allowing the rich to invest in housing at scale as yet another wealth generating vehicle, is an incredibly bad idea, IMO.

am_zarathustra

House prices in the UK doubled roughly from 2000-2010 and then almost doubled again from 2010 to last year. There are areas of London outstripping even this growth. This is a global phenomenon, investment in properties from funds drives increases in prices and creates the supply of renters who can't afford to buy.

The idea prices can't keep rising is simply not based on long term inflationary pressure. In the immediate term there may be a downturn but in the long term it's probable prices will rise. People who were in negative equity in the recession would have been fine if their mortgages had been 3.5 or less and properly stress tested, they could have absorbed a few years of a down turn and bar the insane 1 beds in mad areas most would be comfortably out a negative equity. Long term house prices, especially in urban areas, will probably continue to rise.

I don't like this but it's hard to see any reasonable argument against this with growing populations, more money and our obsession with inflation being almost a good thing.......Germans we are not

am_zarathustra

cnocbui wrote: »

REITs and all the people who aren't beholding to the banks can afford it. If the central bank or government try to force property prices down, Dublin becomes even more attractive to foreign investors, with higher yield, relative to alternatives.

Property prices and affordability were far better prior to the neocon economics that espoused globalisation which has lead to general populaces becoming relatively poorer and the rich, vastly richer at their expense.

Governments allowing the rich to invest in housing at scale as yet another wealth generating vehicle, is an incredibly bad idea, IMO.

Agreed, as long as neoliberal ideals mean speculation is rewarded with yields far in excess of normal interest rates it's inevitable prices will rise.

Plenty of people's pensions funds are also invested this way, and in fossil fuels etc but few bother investigating!

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Yep, i hear ya. We're in a similar boat. Personally, I'd have been delighted to exit planet Dublin but it's not an option.

For those of us with parents in Dublin, options are limited. It feels as if i've been sold a pup. Study work hard, study, more hoops and then you might finally afford a house worse than your parents but consider yourself lucky that your life savings went into that house because....

If I'd any sense I'd have gone into construction instead of university and just bought a few houses in the nineties and rented them out. We then could have bought a house anywhere when needed. The taxes I've paid/ sacrifices made and for what? So that a developer reaps all the rewards? So that the public sector can do SFA?

Anyway, grumpy old man territory now but yeah. For many with family in scd especially, options are limited.

Good luck!

I don't get that you can get from one side of Ireland to the other in a few hours why would you need to buy a house near your parents?

Cyrus

jill_valentine wrote: »

I don't agree with most of his angle or even his routes to those conclusions, but it seems to me there's a reflexive vitriol towards the fact he's making them at all that is not warranted.

As an example, his assessment of what Cairns' share price means - I don't agree that's very meaningful due to how many other factors could be in account.

Is it really so much less meaningful though than the REIT prices - which were being freely discussed by several journalists on social media all week - that it warrants quite personally charged swipes in response? If people are trying to divine the future from one, why is applying the same logic to another pounced on like a character failing rather than just an argument we're not buying?

The amount of daily willy waving in this thread is its least interesting feature.

Do I understand your argument correctly? Just because some one else equally ill informed made the same argument on social media that we should ignore it here?

And I'm not sure why any of you think it's personal I don't know the person from Adam it's the content of some of the posts (and he is by far the most prolific poster in these threads) that I disagree with. If I was making personal attacks I'd have been banned like some of the people noted on page one.

am_zarathustra

Cyrus wrote: »

I don't get that you can get from one side of Ireland to the other in a few hours why would you need to buy a house near your parents?

His parents could be elderly and may need assistance, he may need them for childcare, or any number of things, or they just love them and having them in their lives regularly is enriching.....asking someone why they might prefer to live near people they love is hardly a question people should have to really answer.

Cyrus

<SNIP>

Cyrus

am_zarathustra wrote: »

His parents could be elderly and may need assistance, he may need them for childcare, or any number of things, or they just love them and having them in their lives regularly is enriching.....asking someone why they might prefer to live near people they love is hardly a question people should have to really answer.

It depends on your definition of near.

So by your logic if my folks live on ailesbury Road I should have a reasonable expectation of living next door?

Cyrus

am_zarathustra wrote: »

House prices in the UK doubled roughly from 2000-2010 and then almost doubled again from 2010 to last year. There are areas of London outstripping even this growth. This is a global phenomenon, investment in properties from funds drives increases in prices and creates the supply of renters who can't afford to buy.

The idea prices can't keep rising is simply not based on long term inflationary pressure. In the immediate term there may be a downturn but in the long term it's probable prices will rise. People who were in negative equity in the recession would have been fine if their mortgages had been 3.5 or less and properly stress tested, they could have absorbed a few years of a down turn and bar the insane 1 beds in mad areas most would be comfortably out a negative equity. Long term house prices, especially in urban areas, will probably continue to rise.

I don't like this but it's hard to see any reasonable argument against this with growing populations, more money and our obsession with inflation being almost a good thing.......Germans we are not

Yet we have people and posters in this thread advocating a relaxation of the central Bank rules the same people that complain about house prices it's lunacy

And arguing against stricter repossession laws.

Its actually hard to know what it is people want.

Ace2007

am_zarathustra wrote: »

Agreed, as long as neoliberal ideals mean speculation is rewarded with yields far in excess of normal interest rates it's inevitable prices will rise.

Plenty of people's pensions funds are also invested this way, and in fossil fuels etc but few bother investigating!

While pensions funds are heavily invested in property, the fossil fuels arguments is changing due to ESG regulations.

If property investment funds didn't exist - then that is one less growth asset that is available for pension schemes - the majority of Irish people have no idea what their DB/DC pension funds are invested in, they might think oh it's a default - and not realize that there is property funds within the default growth funds for instance. So while a large number of people complain about it - they are oblivious to the fact that their pension may be invested in those funds.

Ace2007

am_zarathustra wrote: »

His parents could be elderly and may need assistance, he may need them for childcare, or any number of things, or they just love them and having them in their lives regularly is enriching.....asking someone why they might prefer to live near people they love is hardly a question people should have to really answer.

But the majority of people in this country would want to do that - it's just not possible.

Do the parents for instance want their son to be up to their neck in debt just so they are living close to them? The poster has already said that the deposit he had saved is no longer big enough and the savings can't keep up with deposit inflation so to speak.

Dublin is not that big of a city - they could easily buy a house on the north side, or the commuter belt and be within an hour of the parents.

If i grew up in Howth, should their be a reasonable expectation that i can afford a house there - just because my parents are there and my support bubble, regardless of whether i can afford it?

I'm not having a go at said poster, it's just that he's already said he can't afford the deposit as it stands, so unless there is property crash - he's going to have to look elsewhere - and maybe the sooner they do that the sooner they can get a home.

mcsean2163

Cyrus wrote: »

I don't get that you can get from one side of Ireland to the other in a few hours why would you need to buy a house near your parents?

Hard to know where to start. I used to spend 4 hours a day commuting to and from my South Dublin job and I lived in South Dublin. Traffic is unreal.

Imagine if you work Mon - Friday and have kids. You might want to be near your parents in order to help care for them as they get older. That's the big one.

I expect there's not many that would think, "ah it's 8.30, the kids are in bed, I'll be up to my parent (s) in two hours, have a 30 minutes chat and be home by 1am, great."

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Hard to know where to start. I used to spend 4 hours a day commuting to and from my South Dublin job and I lived in South Dublin. Traffic is unreal.

Imagine if you work Mon - Friday and have kids. You might want to be near your parents in order to help care for them as they get older. That's the big one.

I expect there's not many that would think, "ah it's 8.30, the kids are in bed, I'll be up to my parent (s) in two hours, have a 30 minutes chat and be home by 1am, great."

A lot of people's parents move closer to them if they need care as they get older that's an alternative.

As for your commute is that less of a factor now if you can wfh partially?

Personally I work Monday to Friday and have small kids and my parents are an hour and a half away I don't really see the issue. At least not now, if it becomes an issue in the future we can address it but that could be 20 years away.

fergus1001

cnocbui wrote:

REITs and all the people who aren't beholding to the banks can afford it. If the central bank or government try to force property prices down, Dublin becomes even more attractive to foreign investors, with higher yield, relative to alternatives.

let's assume that they are successfully thwarted from the Housing market and kept in the Appartment sector, prices of housing will fall

Ace2007

fergus1001 wrote: »

let's assume that they are successfully thwarted from the Housing market and kept in the Appartment sector, prices of housing will fall

I know where you are coming from, but for those that don't want to buy a family home, why is it fair that the funds can buy up apartments? It's equally unfair although targeted at a different sector.

am_zarathustra

Cyrus wrote: »

It depends on your definition of near.

So by your logic if my folks live on ailesbury Road I should have a reasonable expectation of living next door?

I'm not suggesting that, I am suggesting that being able to afford to buy in Crumlin or a bit out in Rathcoole or Newcastle isn't unreasonable if you've a good career and have worked hard, you shouldn't['t need to move two hours away. It would be near impossible for someone in Dublin to buy right beside their parents but within 30 minutes etc is reasonable in my opinion, especially given our poor home care and extortionate child care.

Ace2007 wrote: »

But the majority of people in this country would want to do that - it's just not possible.

Do the parents for instance want their son to be up to their neck in debt just so they are living close to them? The poster has already said that the deposit he had saved is no longer big enough and the savings can't keep up with deposit inflation so to speak.

Dublin is not that big of a city - they could easily buy a house on the north side, or the commuter belt and be within an hour of the parents.

If i grew up in Howth, should their be a reasonable expectation that i can afford a house there - just because my parents are there and my support bubble, regardless of whether i can afford it?

I'm not having a go at said poster, it's just that he's already said he can't afford the deposit as it stands, so unless there is property crash - he's going to have to look elsewhere - and maybe the sooner they do that the sooner they can get a home.

I agree, I've literally just done this myself. It's a harsh reality but something its best to face up to. Being near enough to call over easily in the evening gives you a pretty big radius really. But saying you just need to move somewhere else entirely is not reasonable.

snow_bunny

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Yep, i hear ya. We're in a similar boat. Personally, I'd have been delighted to exit planet Dublin but it's not an option.

For those of us with parents in Dublin, options are limited. It feels as if i've been sold a pup. Study work hard, study, more hoops and then you might finally afford a house worse than your parents but consider yourself lucky that your life savings went into that house because....

If I'd any sense I'd have gone into construction instead of university and just bought a few houses in the nineties and rented them out. We then could have bought a house anywhere when needed. The taxes I've paid/ sacrifices made and for what? So that a developer reaps all the rewards? So that the public sector can do SFA?

Anyway, grumpy old man territory now but yeah. For many with family in scd especially, options are limited.

Good luck!

You're not in "grumpy old man territory" at all.

The quality is awful and asking prices are comical. "Fixer uppers" (compete wrecks) are priced as if the renovation work has already been carried out! Then you've to consider the recently increased cost of a renovation and the difficulty of getting anyone to do it. You quickly end up in lala land territory cost wise and could probably just buy a mansion for the money you'd spend.

The asking prices last summer were fairly standard and the same as they'd been for 2 years. The start of it all here was when a house near us, (small 3 bed semi in an average estate) sold for 300k, the most ever paid for a house of it's size in the estate. It went into a frenzied bidding war and was sold to a rumoured drug dealer for cash. This was like a bloody rag to a shark. Since that, every house that's come up in the estate has an asking price of about 60k more than what they achieved in 2018/19. All these houses need complete redecoration at a minimum and they're a total rip off. The 300k house had a massive extension and converted attic whereas these are zero frills. They have literally gone up in price overnight, all the estate agents seem to be benchmarking off each other and attempting to set a new price floor.

I do wonder sometimes do people not sit down and look at the PPR and realise they are about to pay 60/70k more a year later for the exact same house? I've wondered about the 1950's renovation jobs going for 340k in another part of town and the added 150k estimated restorations. Half a million to live in a semi D that's not in Cork or Dublin? I also wonder about the people who know all this and then go straight in bidding the asking price. Ffs stop doing this.

Another thing I've noticed is that there's zero way to know if bids are genuine. The whole system is wide open for abuse. People defend the registered bidding platforms that some estate agents offer but honestly, they could easily make up a bidding profile. Also, what's to stop a seller getting their friends or relatives to pose as buyers and drive up the price? All they've to do is keep bidding until you pull out and then come back to you saying the other buyer fell through! The AIP "proof" is another joke, anyone with a PDF editor can fake an AIP letter.

The whole thing is like taking a massive gamble with your life savings and your future security. Most people we know are putting off buying for a couple of years nmore now because we've all seen what happened last time and we're all paying through the nose for it even though we didn't partake.

fergus1001

no it's not fair at all, in my mind the funds should be allowed to fund the building of houses and apartments but then sell them on the open market instead

basically lend money to developers ect

Donald Trump

drogon. wrote: »

Kind of crazy but found this house in Kilcock

Looks like it was bought in an auction in 2020 for €265,000
https://bidx1.com/en/en-ie/auction/property/40363

Was done up nicely and put on the market for €450,000; since then has sold and assuming the seller would have gotten close to the asking price as well
https://www.property.ie/property-for-sale/96-The-Village-Green-Royal-Meadows-Kilcock-Co-Kildare/4626609/

Nice flip on the house if you ask me.

Fixing pyrite issues can be costly.

BidX1 because once the hammer falls, it is the buyers problem.

Buyer spends money, fixes issues, gets all clear and sells on. That is the reason for the jump there

Ardillaun

Our perspectives on property are naturally shaped by the Anglosphere but we should be looking elsewhere for solutions as well. Vienna, for example, seems to have done a better job on social housing than we have.

https://www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/housing/2019/09/housing-basic-human-right-vienna-model-social-housing

And experienced a much smaller property bust in this century, partly because a large social housing sector tends to dampen boom-bust cycles:

https://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp201705.pdf

On the other side, the private sector certainly has a role to play and bigger landlords do have their advantages. When a pipe bursts I’d much rather be calling a large corporation than some DIY eejit with his ancient bag of tools.

Re: building a radically increased number of homes near Dublin, we have ‘rolling prairies’, as Colm McCarthy likes to put it, on the city’s doorstep. San Fran we ain’t. But how optimistic should we be that the nimby-loving gombeens who run this country will sort these problems out? Let’s hope they defy our expectations.

Cyrus

snow_bunny wrote: »

Same here, except in the west and you're not in "grumpy old man territory" at all.

It feels like the more we save the more expensive they get. We've a massive deposit at this stage but nothing to buy as the quality is awful and asking prices are comical. "Fixer uppers" (compete wrecks) are priced as if the renovation work has already been carried out! Then you've to consider the recently increased cost of a renovation and the difficulty of getting anyone to do it. You quickly end up in lala land territory cost wise and could probably just buy a mansion for the money you'd spend.

The asking prices last summer were fairly standard and the same as they'd been for 2 years. The start of it all here was when a house near us, (small 3 bed semi in an average estate) sold for 300k, the most ever paid for a house of it's size in the estate. It went into a frenzied bidding war and was sold to a rumoured drug dealer for cash. This was like a bloody rag to a shark. Since that, every house that's come up in the estate has an asking price of about 60k more than what they achieved in 2018/19. All these houses need complete redecoration at a minimum and they're a total rip off. The 300k house had a massive extension and converted attic whereas these are zero frills. They have literally gone up in price overnight, all the estate agents seem to be benchmarking off each other and attempting to set a new price floor.

I do wonder sometimes do people not sit down and look at the PPR and realise they are about to pay 60/70k more a year later for the exact same house? I've wondered about the 1950's renovation jobs going for 340k in another part of town and the added 150k estimated restorations. Half a million to live in a semi D that's not in Cork or Dublin? I also wonder about the people who know all this and then go straight in bidding the asking price. Ffs stop doing this.

Another thing I've noticed is that there's zero way to know if bids are genuine. The whole system is wide open for abuse. People defend the registered bidding platforms that some estate agents offer but honestly, they could easily make up a bidding profile. Also, what's to stop a seller getting their friends or relatives to pose as buyers and drive up the price? All they've to do is keep bidding until you pull out and then come back to you saying the other buyer fell through! The AIP "proof" is another joke, anyone with a PDF editor can fake an AIP letter.

The whole thing is like taking a massive gamble with your life savings and your future security. Most people we know are putting off buying for a couple of years nmore now because we've all seen what happened last time and we're all paying through the nose for it even though we didn't partake.

This is another misnomer if you think about the incentives for an estate agent to make up bids they aren't there, they make there money from a sale an extra 10 or 20k is a few hundred quid in commission.

snow_bunny

Cyrus wrote: »

This is another misnomer if you think about the incentives for an estate agent to make up bids they aren't there, they make there money from a sale an extra 10 or 20k is a few hundred quid in commission.

I don't agree. It's about more than estate agent commission, in fact that has little to do with it really. One of the main agency players here gain their business by exaggerating possible sale prices to the vendor. Their strategy seems to be price it sky high, add 10% and then even if it achives 10% under asking, the buyer will think they've got a bargain and the vendor will still have achieved a crazy price for the property. It's not a good look for them if this isn't kept consistent, it's more about reputation and economies of scale than it is about commission. An extra €200 is nothing but an extra ten clients is huge.

Then there's the separate issue of the vendors. Say I have approval in principle. If my friends are selling their place and they need to push the bidding up another ten grand I can register, view and bid with no intention of buying. I can simply change my mind in the event of becoming the highest bidder and the under bidder will think they've "won the bidding". If it doesn't work, it cost nothing and can go back bidding at lower price. If it does work, nobody will ever know. There's nothing even illegal about that.

That's not even getting into how easy it would be to commit fraud and fake the whole thing down to the AIP letters.

It comes up as an issue for buyers constantly, there's no trust there. It could be fixed so easily by having to pay a non refundable bidding deposit. It's not fixed because the current format has zero accountability and works very well in the agency's favour.

Cyrus

snow_bunny wrote: »

I don't agree. It's about more than estate agent commission, in fact that has little to do with it really. One of the main agency players here gain their business by exaggerating possible sale prices to the vendor. Their strategy seems to be price it sky high, add 10% and then even if it achives 10% under asking, the buyer will think they've got a bargain and the vendor will still have achieved a crazy price for the property. It's not a good look for them if this isn't kept consistent, it's more about reputation and economies of scale than it is about commission. An extra €200 is nothing but an extra ten clients is huge.

Then there's the separate issue of the vendors. Say I have approval in principle. If my friends are selling their place and they need to push the bidding up another ten grand I can register, view and bid with no intention of buying. I can simply change my mind in the event of becoming the highest bidder and the under bidder will think they've "won the bidding". If it doesn't work, it cost nothing and can go back bidding at lower price. If it does work, nobody will ever know. There's nothing even illegal about that.

That's not even getting into how easy it would be to commit fraud and fake the whole thing down to the AIP letters.

It comes up as an issue for buyers constantly, there's no trust there. It could be fixed so easily by having to pay a non refundable bidding deposit. It's not fixed because the current format has zero accountability and works very well in the agency's favour.

You are inventing a conspiracy that doesn't exist. As for an ea setting prices someone has to buy it at that price if they don't it won't sell, they don't sell they make no money.

It's an enemy that isn't really there.

snow_bunny

Cyrus wrote: »

You are inventing a conspiracy that doesn't exist. As for an ea setting prices someone has to buy it at that price if they don't it won't sell, they don't sell they make no money.

It's an enemy that isn't really there.

In your opinion you mean. Unfortunately, that doesn't make it any less likely. I wasn't the first and I won't be the last to point out the huge potential for abuse that the current system allows. There's nothing conspiratorial about it.

It reminds me of the conversation about Tidy Towns on Newstalk the other day. There was a Councillor on talking about how the entries would be sent in by photographs this year. Pat Kenny asked "what if they photoshop them?" and the Councillor replied "oh gosh no, shur nobody would do that".

I'm not as inclined as some to give estate agents and vendors the benefit of the doubt when we're talking about tens of thousands of euro and my potential home.

cubatahavana

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Yep, i hear ya. We're in a similar boat. Personally, I'd have been delighted to exit planet Dublin but it's not an option.

For those of us with parents in Dublin, options are limited. It feels as if i've been sold a pup. Study work hard, study, more hoops and then you might finally afford a house worse than your parents but consider yourself lucky that your life savings went into that house because....

If I'd any sense I'd have gone into construction instead of university and just bought a few houses in the nineties and rented them out. We then could have bought a house anywhere when needed. The taxes I've paid/ sacrifices made and for what? So that a developer reaps all the rewards? So that the public sector can do SFA?

Anyway, grumpy old man territory now but yeah. For many with family in scd especially, options are limited.

Good luck!

I don’t want to be rude, but that’s your option. Millions of people emigrate and live in different countries than their parents. It can be done no problem. Your options are limited just by your wish to live near them

snow_bunny

snow_bunny wrote: »

In your opinion you mean. Unfortunately, that doesn't make it any less likely. I wasn't the first and I won't be the last to point out the huge potential for abuse that the current system allows. There's nothing conspiratorial about it.

It reminds me of the conversation about Tidy Towns on Newstalk the other day. There was a Councillor on talking about how the entries would be sent in by photographs this year. Pat Kenny asked "what if they photoshop them?" and the Councillor replied "oh gosh no, shur nobody would do that".

I'm not as inclined as some to give estate agents and vendors the benefit of the doubt when we're talking about tens of thousands of euro and my potential home.

If you have evidence of wrong doing, make a complaint to the relevant authority.

It never ceases to amaze me how hung up people get about advertised guide prices. EAs don’t get to set the selling price, the seller and buyer do. The accuracy of the guide price only becomes apparent after the market has set the actual selling price, sometimes it’s above, sometimes below, but the price depends on what the highest bidder is willing to pay for it, not what the EA advises it is worth.

Yes the process is open to abuse, by both sides. It is any less abuse by a buyer who bids beyond what they can afford, bids on multiple properties, changes their mind after price has been driven up?

Just remember, vendors want to sell for as much as possible, and the EA works for the vendor. Some day you might be on the selling end of the process, your concerns will be a little less important to you at that time.

Cyrus

snow_bunny wrote: »

In your opinion you mean.

No.

super_furry

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Interesting, I guess I'm disappointed that the predicted executor sales are not happening.

Was looking at this

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/26-quinns-road-shankill-dublin-18/4503082

Equivalent house sold for €200k less in 2017

10/07/2017 €447,500.00 79 QUINN'S ROAD, SHANKILL, DUBLIN 18, Dublin 18

We seem to be in real nose bleed territory now.

Funnily enough I bid on 79 back then and it really isn't an equivalent. If I remember rightly the asking price was €425k and the house needed a huge amount of work as well as being 50% smaller than the one currently for sale - so much so that the couple that bought it back in 2017 still haven't moved into it yet - they're still midway through a rebuild. Covid and the rest obviously hadn't helped but 79 was a 50s house that was barely touched since then. Minimum needed back in 2017 would have been a total rewiring and heating system - there was a back boiler that ran off that gas heater in the kitchen in the photos.

You can still see the original photos here - https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/79-quinns-road-shankill-dublin-18/3851810

Things were getting up there even back then though and that was the house that convinced myself and the wife that we'd need to go back to the bank and look for a bigger mortgage.

Obviously things have heated up since then but those houses really aren't like for like and even back in 2017, number 26 would have good for at least 125k more. Still think they might be pushing their luck asking for 645k especially when it needs updating but who knows, they'll probably get it.

Graham

Mod Note

Thread split, Why Does It Cost More to Build a House in Dublin than Other Counties

snow_bunny

Yes the process is open to abuse, by both sides. It is any less abuse by a buyer who bids beyond what they can afford, bids on multiple properties, changes their mind after price has been driven up?

Thanks.That's literally my whole point. We need a deposit system whereby you'll lose a few grand if you pull out as the top bidder.

Ace2007

snow_bunny wrote: »

Thanks.That's literally my whole point. We need a deposit system whereby you'll lose a few grand if you pull out as the top bidder.

Agreed, there has to be some sort of financial loss for bidding and pulling out - say 5% the value of the house - that would soon get rid of all the weeds and then you would see who is a real time buyer.

I've mixed feelings on the need proof of finances/AIP to view houses - I can understand the reasons behind it, i'm just not sure if it's the right way to go about it. A lot of people view houses that they would love to buy one day, or if they get money from somewhere - it's their goal to own house in x location.

I can't realistically afford to buy a Lamborghini does this mean i shouldn't be allow to view it and/or take it for a test drive.