Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

JimmyVik

I give up.

You just arent getting it are you.

More concerned with virtue signalling than understanding peoples points.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205960#Comment_118205960

So which part of this is wrong?

So long as people put so much emphasis on the value of their houses, instead of buying a home that suits their needs, there will be issues.

Estates need a proper mix of housing and tenants and people need to worry less about what their neighbours are paying.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205976#Comment_118205976

no body is saying that everyone in social housing is antisocial. What they are saying is that there are higher chances of antisocial behaviour. That’s not snobbery that’s a fact of life.. whether the antisocial behaviour is due to not having the same opportunity or have problems at home, boredom or whatever you will find higher levels of antisocial behaviour in social housing and that’s a fact. If there were no issues then why do the government have DESH schools with social workers and supports in the school that you wouldn’t find in a regular school….

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118206424#Comment_118206424

why do estates need a 'proper mix' and how do you define a 'proper' mix.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118206544#Comment_118206544

Deis schools?

Almost Every national school in Leitrim, Cavan and Donegal is designated a deis school! What does that have to do with social housing?

So, still no one wants social housing estates, but no one wants social housing mixed with private .......🤔

javaboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118206635#Comment_118206635

I DO want mixed estates. I want people who buy a house for 500k to live next to other people who could afford a little less and get a boost.

And people who could afford a 300k house to live next to other people who needed a little boost etc.

What I can’t abide is a system that puts people paying nothing or very little next door to those paying 500k. It’s not fair. It doesn’t incentivise or reward hard work. It actually inflames the anti social housing sentiments.

Amadan Dubh

Two interesting articles in the IT today which raise important issues; (1) the rock and a hard place position of the government who do not want house prices to fall at all but then claim to want to sort the housing crisis (which requires house prices and rents to drop significantly); and (2) the State has inflated the bubble.

What is interesting about (1) is that it was written by a research director at BNP Paribas Real Estate - the wheels of the economy are coming to a grinding halt from this housing mess and when you have the likes of Dermot Desmond and this research director criticizing the lack of affordability, calling for prices to drop, then the game must be up. It occurred to me today that the exodus of small landlords the last few years, while bad for the rental market, was a stroke of genius and excellent timing for the small landlords as the direction of travel from here is extremely uncertain and "past performance is not a guide to future performance" is an apt warning.

O'Broin being given a platform in the IT is giving real legitimacy to SF's housing policy and the penny must be starting to drop that whether people like it or not, SF are a mainstream, credible alternative party. For housing alone, I will vote for them but I am not affiliated to any political party, they just resonate with me.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/opinion-government-does-not-want-house-prices-to-fall-1.4734722

Wishing to be re-elected, the Government desperately wants to deliver more homes. But this presents a conflict, because it is equally fearful of doing something that would cause house prices to fall. There are four reasons for this. First, politicians know that 70 per cent of Irish households own their own homes, and they fear alienating these voters with policies which would erode housing wealth. Second, through painful experience, the Government has learned that falling house prices can quickly get out of control. Once prices start sliding, all that is needed for a self-fulfilling deflationary spiral is the expectation that this will continue. A third, and related, concern is the banking system. Banks typically lend to first-time-buyers at loan-to-value ratios of up to 90 per cent. This provides limited leeway for price slippage before the outstanding mortgage balances exceed the value of the assets that are securing them. Finally, house price deflation conflicts with the objective of delivering more homes. 

Successive governments have taken a pragmatic approach to resolving this dilemma, by channelling increased public funding into schemes which subsidise occupiers. Interventions like Help-to-Buy, the Rebuilding Ireland Home Loan, the Housing Assistance Payment (HAP) and Social Leasing tick multiple boxes for politicians. First, they help people to secure accommodation that would otherwise be unaffordable. Second, because these schemes increase the amount that people can pay rather than reducing the housing costs that they face, they carry no deflation risk. On the contrary, by giving households – or State-sponsored agencies acting on their behalf – more money to procure housing solutions, they actually support prices, incentivising development.

Aside from this inflationary impact, the elephant in the room is the sheer scale of State involvement on the demand side of the housing market. A total of 12,304 new homes were purchased last year. State bodies accounted for 2,873 of these. A further 6,202 buyers of new homes claimed Help-to-Buy subsidies of up to €30,000. And 7,292 additional HAP tenancies were created, through which private landlords receive rents directly from the State. Meanwhile, 1,400 homes were leased in the private market for social housing.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eoin-%C3%B3-broin-time-to-look-deeper-into-underlying-factors-in-dysfunctional-rental-sector-1.4734788

Seventy-two per cent of the last government’s social housing targets were to come from the private rental sector. This has absorbed an enormous volume of private rental supply. Almost a third of all private rental tenancies are social housing tenants subsidised by a variety of Government schemes.

While the new Government’s housing plan does not contain targets for new HAP tenancies to 2025, its low social housing targets make an increase in HAP tenancies inevitable. Meanwhile the number of available properties in the private market has been falling. Since 2017 there has been a net loss of about 20,000 rental properties.

s single property landlords are leaving, new rental stock is being supplied by large institutional investors. Supported by excessive tax reliefs and retrograde changes to apartment design standards, much of the new stock is high-end, high-price and Dublin city centric.

The speculative nature of much of these schemes has pushed up land and development costs, hardwiring viability and affordability problems into our private rental sector for years to come.

Strangely, despite large volumes of planning permissions for such schemes being granted by the controversial Strategic Housing Development fast-track process, only a fraction has commenced construction.

In response to these dynamics successive government ministers have, since 2014, promised direct State investment in affordable cost rental accommodation.

The first cost rental homes were tenanted late this year, but October’s budget allocated only €70 million for next year. This means that cost rental output will be in the hundreds rather than the thousands of homes that are needed to meet demand.

Last thing, a Central Bank economic letter published today touching on inflation and how current cost of living rises could lead to higher wages and then further cost of living squeezes and increased inflation expectations - no s**t! This, for me, is not a probably scenario but an almost certain scenario and it is deeply troubling to think our regulator does not use more definitive language about it. The central banks are stuck at this point; raising interest rates will hamper their "growth" indicators but there are no tools left in the toolkit to further continue along the path they are on as the rock bottom interest rates can't go lower and QE must be wound down given the pandemic is on its last legs.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/cost-of-living-squeeze-could-persist-on-foot-of-higher-wage-demands-report-warns-1.4735523

Gael23

Family member just gone Sale Agreed 37k over asking after 10 days on the market in South Wexford

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118206627#Comment_118206627

People don't seem to want council estates

I would like to see the state providing housing to everybody in a much more affordable level, estates with social housing, cost rental, affordable to buy altogether.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118206627#Comment_118206627

thats like asking a liberal progressive why gender quotas are important

its an article of faith for them that they are

MacronvFrugals

In the last week we've learned BAE systems (pension fund) and Katie Taylor are leasing gaffs to the councils.

When the ECB talk about "pockets of exuberance" are they actually referring to the Irish state lol

It really seems like there's a tsunami of capital falling over themselves to take advantage of 25-year inflation linked leases.

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/olympic-star-taylor-leasing-investment-properties-to-dcc-for-social-housing-0dd882ad

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118206932#Comment_118206932

The conclusion paragraph of the central bank states a different perspective to your conclusion.

wassie

Seems to be the view quite a few Central Banks, including the Federal Reserve earlier this month;

Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory. Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have contributed to sizable price increases in some sectors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

And Australia's Reserve Bank;

Inflation has picked up, but in underlying terms is still low, at 2.1 per cent. The headline CPI inflation rate is 3 per cent and is being affected by higher petrol prices, higher prices for newly constructed homes and the disruptions in global supply chains. A further, but only gradual, pick-up in underlying inflation is expected.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207240#Comment_118207240

You need to look at the continent to see the financial exuberance.

Here is restrained in comparison.

That's a reflection on the wild approach elsewhere.

Villa05

Some interesting demographic stats in the I. T article written by the BNP employee.

Net migration peaked in 2018, reduced birth rate and increased death rate

New homes beginning to outpace household formation

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205976#Comment_118205976

You refuse to accept what people believe that they don't want to live with or near social housing. Again I will reiterate it is the minority of social housing tenants that destroy it for the majority.

It is also the states unwillingness to deal with said minority.

You have previously posted that you have 500k to spend on a property and do not mind living in working class areas or close to social housing. If you purchase in a traditional working class area then you should be able to purchase a property that meets your requirements and still have funds left over.

I am not sure of the purpose of your continous posting. Other posters have expressed views which you refuse to accept that they differ from yours. You may not agree with them but you seemed determined to argue that your viewpoint is right.

It may be right for you but it's not for others and you just can't accept that.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207467#Comment_118207467

The fact they make no mention of housing shows how utterly lost they are and no one should for one second think our regulators have moved on from '08 and won't let us down again. Too tied to traditional barometers and modelling that is not that useful in the modern era.

Although to be a bit fair to our own central bank; the ECB is really our central bank so our guys in Dublin are just talking heads and data collectors. The real work happens at the level of the ECB.

Amadan Dubh

Maybe there's some sort of conscience between the civil servants at DCC after all. The social housing lease with BAE Systems is being reviewed apparently.

I would still like to see the Davy long term leases investigated by some journalists in the context of the link to Owen Keegan. There is just such a huge volume of Davy entities in long term social housing leases with DCC compared to any other corporate entity that it is a bit peculiar.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/construction-of-850-dublin-homes-at-oscar-traynor-site-approved-1.4735849

Meanwhile senior council housing officials are to seek legal advice on Tuesday on the proposed lease of social housing from the pension fund of British arms manufacturer BAE Systems.

Councillors on Monday night said they were opposed to the council officials proceeding with an agreement to lease the homes recently purchased by the company. These include a mix of newly-built apartments and houses, as well as refurbished homes on different roads in Kimmage and Crumlin which were snapped up by the pension fund.

Dave Dinnigan, the council’s director of housing delivery acknowledged councillors had concerns and said he believed they were “well meant” he said: “I will be talking to our law agent in the morning on what options are available to us and I will come back to the members with our decision. I don’t want to get into the particulars of that case tonight, but we will be making a decision on this as soon as I’ve talked to the law agent tomorrow.”

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118208490#Comment_118208490

it is right and they are wrong. Very simple. They just don't have any good reason.

we don't want large social housing estates, we don't want social housing in our private estates. What would you suggest?

Also, not one single person has been able to show anymore chance that your neighbour will be anti social if they are social tenants, then if they are private tenants.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118208587#Comment_118208587

The Irish regulators do not set monetary policy it’s the ECB and they are afraid that tightening monetary policy will cause a recession throughout Europe.

Have a read of the latest speech on the topic

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2021/html/ecb.sp211119~3749d3556c.en.html

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118208653#Comment_118208653

You are now just trolling. Multiple posters have highlighted personal experiences of anti social issues in social housing estate and with a minority of social tenants and you refuse to accept people's personal experiences.

You are not getting the answers you want to hear so refuse to accept the answers you are being given.

For this reason I see no point in engaging further with you on this topic as its pointless.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118209231#Comment_118209231

I am not refusing, I have no doubt posters have those personal experiences.

There are also many many people who have had the same experience with private tenants. I think the fact that you think it's somehow ok and perfectly justified to tar all people of a certain social background As criminals and anti social deviants, says a lot about you.

Maybe you should listen to the many many posters who have had issues with their neighbours who own their houses? Or rent privately?

So long as there are attitudes like yours in this country we will have a housing problem

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118209362#Comment_118209362

I would suggest you read my posts carefully again. You are blinded by your opinion. I said it was the minority of people but sure hey interpet my posts to suit your narrative.

klose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118206970#Comment_118206970

"asking price" is a bit meaningless these days, estate agents will list for under the actual valuations to get the ball rolling.

On to that, what standard median income style homes have gone for below or at asking price in the last 18 months? Very few if any I'd imagine.

If you're looking at homes in your area and the asking is 200k I'd say slap 15 on top of it minimum before you get close to getting it, if you go into the housing market thinking you're getting a "good deal" at the moment you're deluded I would say.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118208377#Comment_118208377

Do you have a link to the article?

Gael23

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118209453#Comment_118209453

There’s not much in the area so we weren’t expecting to get past asking, mostly people live there to commute to bigger areas because houses are affordable

Asking prices are way under the bidding. Presumably estate agents are not taking the lack of supply into consideration.

I viewed a house, normal 3 bed semi, in Blanchardstown, close to the village, a few weeks ago. Wasn't a great house, just an ok house, asking 370,000 i bowed out at 420,000.

There's a house a friend of mine is bidding on in Palmerston, asking 260,000 bidding currently at 320,000 and likely to go higher. Good house, but needs work.

Lack of supply is pushing all houses up and up.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118213353#Comment_118213353

I find you confusing. You keep talking about how you love social housing but seem to be ignoring affordable properties in d15.

Care to explain?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118211651#Comment_118211651

It's the 1st of 3 linked by Amadan Dubh yesterday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118213930#Comment_118213930

I'm not sure what you mean? I look at houses that suit me, and my list of requirements.

There are lots of houses in lots of areas that I don't look at.