Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118209362#Comment_118209362

the majority of prisoners in Mountjoy come from 4 council estates in Dublin. It isn't some hazy detail about anti-social behaviour in council estates versus private. You can get anti-social behaviour from anybody but is just a fact the less educated you are the less social responsibility you will have. The less educated the less you earn the more likely you will need social welfare accommodation. These are known things and it doesn't mean all people in these council estates are bad but they have their own social issues. One of the reason for mixed estates it to break up that concentration so peer pressure is balanced out.

I grew up near Coolock, never saw a burnt out car in our estate but when I went to Coolock there were multiple burnt out cars. The flats by Nortside shopping centre regularly had a fire going against the block and people would just add to it by throwing their furniture out. Blach has the highest drop out rate of schools in the entire country. If you don't think this is a result of poor social housing policies then you are ignoring reality.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214748#Comment_118214748

I agree with everything you said. I'm not ignoring anything.

We don't want big council estates, but yet we don't want social housing beside our houses in our private estates. What's the answer?

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214579#Comment_118214579

You keeping banging on about the benefits of social housing but seem to be avoiding social housing areas in Blanchard.

Pot, kettle, black.

CorkRed93

Irish property is undervalued by 17%, says EC, so will prices rise further?

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/irish-property-is-undervalued-by-17-says-ec-so-will-prices-rise-further-1.4735594

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214778#Comment_118214778

Don't be ridiculous. I avoid houses in Lucan also, but they're all private.

I saw a house in cabra the other day, is that ok?

What's your point?

Fattybojangles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214786#Comment_118214786

I'd love to live on the planet those fools live on.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214786#Comment_118214786

It’s undervalued based on rental prices in the report. It does doesn’t take into account that the majority in the rental sector can’t get a mortgage because of CBI rules.

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214764#Comment_118214764

Make those people to buy their own houses like everyone else? If they cant afford to buy in Dublin they need to move out to somewhere cheaper like working families have to, why should the taxpayer have to subsidise their housing? Why don't we subsidise housing for nurses instead, they actually contribute to society and have a very tough job?

There is something fundamentally wrong with the system when the economy is booming, massive employment opportunities for good wages but the social housing list keeps getting longer and longer.

Ray Palmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214764#Comment_118214764

Some people don't want mixed estates and some people don't want big social housing estates. People will argue about it. There isn't an answer there is arguing and it won't go away so people will block it every way they can. SF won't be able to solve it and actively block developments of all kinds. I don't want social housing added to my area because the council sold the social housing in the area to the tenants. The area did it's time and gentrified. New estates should be mixed with a housing officer to remove problem tenants from social housing and put them in some form of sin bin and even eventual removal from all social housing if issues continue.

Sinn Fein won't solve anything, that's for sure!

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214764#Comment_118214764

proper policing by both AGS and local authorities , currently we have little from either

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215137#Comment_118215137

What do you suggest AGS do?

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215171#Comment_118215171

well AGS need the support of government but penalties for the parents of youths engaged in repeated delinquent behaviour in estates in the way of welfare reduction would be a good start.

local authorities need to ban those evicted for life from the housing list or homeless services , if you terrorise your council estate , you live under a bridge or just pay your own way

we,ve had two generations of endless carrot at the behest of liberals , its failed miserably beit with tinkers or local authority estate residents who make life hell for their neighbours

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215218#Comment_118215218

You can't take money from people because someone related to them engages in bad behaviour! Also, the state cannot just make people homeless.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215281#Comment_118215281

under my proposal , if local authority tenants breach conditions and are evicted , they presumably must seek shelter elsewhere , beit with relatives or privately , that isnt the " state making people homeless " but your reply does speak volumes , your concern is for the delinquents who have been removed from the locality where they are wreaking havoc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215356#Comment_118215356

I have no concerns for such people!

What do you suggest that we do with anti social house owners?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205646#Comment_118205646

Anecdotally, I am seeing this in the upper end of the market in South Dublin and North Wicklow. Having spoken to a couple of agents they have said it's gone quiet and unsure if due to seasonality.

At the lower end of the market it's still brisk.

L1011

Discussion of social housing tenants in the manner which has been happening for a few pages is against forum rules, and its also off topic. Stop it immediately.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214786#Comment_118214786

I'd be bookmarking that report for when it blows up and the taxpayer is threatened with footing the bill.

Do they give any mention of rents being in a bubble?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215780#Comment_118215780

Can we have a system where children and their parents in emergency accomodation be swapped out for anti social Tennant's

Is that feasible?

Have at least some sort of response to delinquent behaviour. Right to housing has to be balanced with respect for same

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215946#Comment_118215946

Yes, I'd love to see a similar report on whether rents are under or overvalued. Is there one?

I like that the report highlighted low interest rates and their link to house prices, also noting the risk of a correction should interest rates rise. On that point, there is a link between stocks and house prices and their value increasing, but there are a couple of things that make me think that stocks at least are in a bubble of sorts which is leading to uncertainty in some quarters; our own regulator is clamping down on certain investments that funds can enter into, particularly more speculative products. The other point is to do with the big players offloading their shareholdings; as posted last week and I see again today Musk is dumping more Tesla shares. Why would the regulator be getting nervous about speculative instruments and the rich guys offloading shares if the fundamentals were strong and there was room to run?

One last point is to do with McWilliams and his position that understanding bubbles is about understanding psychology and reading people's minds more than it is about pure economics. For the last while there is absolutely a mood that the only way is up and if some sort of correction occurred I think it is fair to say that a lot of people would claim that "no one saw it coming". That in itself is a warning for me! While I'm a renter I'd welcome a rental market crash, happy to admit that. But I also have parents who plan on selling their home and live off the proceeds for the rest of their retirement but unfortunately they are wedded to the idea that they could make more by holding out longer and also that they will only end up buying somewhere overpriced as well if they sell at the moment - not listening to the advice that "a bird in the hand" etc. Personally invested in the two camps.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215946#Comment_118215946

Even if houses prices crashed how would it translate to the taxpayer footing the bill. We could have a crash the same as 08 and banks would be ok this time around due to changes in regulation…they regularly stress test this and publish the results.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205106#Comment_118205106

The average salary for a single public sector worker in 2019 was €56,666. If there were two in a house, obviously you double that.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118206070#Comment_118206070

I for one don't begrudge you a cent that you have and am glad you have been clever with your finances. Some call it a property ladder, but for those who make the right decisions and have some luck with timing, it can be closer to a property train.

straight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118216985#Comment_118216985

As far as I am aware PTSB have never passed those stress tests.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118216542#Comment_118216542

The regulator is concerned about speculative instruments because as investors chase yield they are taking on more and more risk and unless the investors is a sophisticated Investor they may know the level of risk they are undertaking. The same thing happened in banking in 08 where derivatives were sold to people that didn’t understand them and lost a fortune as a result. This time around it is the funds that are using them and investors may not be aware of the risks.

With regards the risk of the stock market crashing all the big banks have highlighted this risk. The problem is that people don’t know when it will crash. Greed and fear move markets and at the moment there is more greed than fear.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118217234#Comment_118217234

I think the regulators have already missed the boat on this, as mentioned before in the context of the staggering size of the shadow banking activity going through Ireland (in the trillions). In the build up to 08 you had a lot of fraud and risk; higher yielding fixed income instruments have grown at warp speed in recent years to become this absolute monster. We also have a lot of fraudulent activity and you can take your pick here; Chinese housing market; the entire crypto world but even with ETFs which to me are a bit of a con (especially around their liquidity).

I am worried for the post-pandemic unwinding of economic supports as I don't see how we can persist with the same conditions as we have not quite but almost gotten used to the last 18 months as it has supercharged asset price growth which cannot happen in isolation to the real economy or even disconnected to wages, without something giving. It's squeaky bum time as they say.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118217113#Comment_118217113

PTSB is not deemed a systemically important bank. Maybe that will change when they take over some of the ulster bank book

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118217320#Comment_118217320

Which part of shadow banking do you see impacting the Irish economy? The majority of it is just the packaging up of debt and selling to global investors who are chasing yield and the only direct impact would be people working in this industry

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118217113#Comment_118217113

Not that there was much confidence about in those tests at the time. Markets laid off the banks because of central banks actions rather than any confidence in the banks balance sheets