Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118546563#Comment_118546563

40 percent isn't that unusual in that time frame in desirable locations as mad as that sounds

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118545026#Comment_118545026

Bungalows are relatively scarce aswell and desirable to those trading down so that'll be a factor also.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118551479#Comment_118551479

I guess....

It looks kind of like a prison to me. I hope I never feel the urge to move to such a place on retirement.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118551315#Comment_118551315

Existing home owners account for nearly half of all property purchased.. rising house prices don’t benefit them when they are selling and buying at the same time. But they still contribute to price increases especially if competing with FTB’s

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118552585#Comment_118552585

I would think 45% is low on long term averages. But even if 45% is the norm, it is 45% of a very low number.

Buyers moving up/down/sideways should always account for bulk of purchases. We want more of them buying and selling, not less.

I've no idea of the figures, but I would guess if you found the long term averages you'd find that currently existing owner occupiers are a little below the average, FTBers are a little above average and non owner occupiers significantly above average.

AdamD

Wouldn't rising interest rates also slow down construction growth?

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118553161#Comment_118553161

I agree that it is a 45% of a low number but unless you have owner occupiers downsizing and other owners upsizing at the same time you are dependent on first time buyers or non owner occupiers entering the market and buying used houses to enable properties to become available for sale.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118553702#Comment_118553702

Yes it would as construction costs especially financing costs of new developments would become more expensive which would mean that cost of building would increase and if developers are unable to sell at a higher cost then they won’t build which results in more upward pressure on rents.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554063#Comment_118554063

You'll get no argument from me that you need owner occupiers up/downsizing/moving sideways at the same time, which is exactly why I said the low turnover rate is the root of all the problems. Once the turnover rate begins to rise to the norms a lot of the current problems will be alleviated.

Villa05

The state won't build and traditionally the private sector built for youngish couples at close to peak earnings that were buying for the future, hence the proliferation of the 3 bed semi d.

There is nothing to downsize too.

The building sector have us all between a rock and a hard place and magically now a 1/2 bed unit is more expensive than a 3 bed semi.

I suspect it's a bit more about knowing where the money is rather than knowing the cost of construction

.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554223#Comment_118554223

Sociology people are reluctant to sell at a lower price than they originally purchased for or think what there property is worth despite the fact that property they would buy may also be lower.

Even if there was more churn it wouldn’t lower the prices it would just increase the supply available for sale and at the same time increase the demand so can’t see how it would alleviate problems in the housing market.

Villa05

Won't come as a shock but...

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/housing-for-all-wont-mean-more-new-builds-for-private-buyers-fc91b2ca

There will be no increase in the number of new-build homes available to purchase on the private market this year, a Business Post analysis has found

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554380#Comment_118554380

I suspect if there was more churn, Housing stock would be used more efficiently, less likely to be empty and fall into disrepair

The costs associated with buying and selling are a deterrent

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554399#Comment_118554399

But isn’t this what happens when people want to the reduce the numbers on HAP. It moves the pain point elsewhere unless the overall supply of new properties increases sufficiently to absorb social housing

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554534#Comment_118554534

If the churn was due to people downsizing yes it may lead to property being used more efficiently. But as you pointed out there is hardly any properties available to downsize to.

the costs associated with buying and selling are irrelevant in churn of existing property owners at they will be both buyers and sellers at the same time.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554534#Comment_118554534

Exactly. It is shortsighted to say if an owner sells and buys it will make no difference. That’s only true if everybody is buying and selling the same type and size of property, but the exact opposite is true of trader uppers and downsizers.

The biggest problem at the minute is inefficient allocation of existing housing stock. The sooner turnover rises the sooner the stock will be allocated more efficiently.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554571#Comment_118554571

Which came first - the chicken or the egg?!

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554571#Comment_118554571

Exactly our planning system should take into account housing needs for various life stages. It appears to be driven by one

Then they will have both buying and selling costs plus potentially loosing favorable mortgage terms like trackers. Moving house can also be one of life's more stressful events

Timing belt

If you want people to downsize to free up existing property you need smaller units built in established areas not in some new location miles away.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554939#Comment_118554939

what is an example of an established area in which people in existing property wish to downsize but does not have smaller units already built in that area?

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554399#Comment_118554399

No surprise as the FF and FG government are interested in maintaining the status quo or at the very least do not want to see a big increase in supply if it would force down rents and house prices. What is surprising is how we are now two years into this political cycle and only three left but the government has made no progress at all on the single biggest issue from the last election - things have gotten much worse.

Also published today is the unwaivering support gathered via opinion polls for SF. I'm not pro-any political party but I understand people not voting FF and FG. However, I'm not looking forward at all to SF in government and do think we are heading there. In the absence of the bubble popping in the next three years I think SF getting into government is what will be the biggest impact on our housing market, even more so than wfh and corporate tax reform which restructs the number of immigrants working for big companies here in Ireland.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118555002#Comment_118555002

If you want older people to downsize to free up larger properties they are unlikely to move into an 1/2 bed apartment in a new area away from friends and family. If there was new energy efficient 1/2 bed houses in their existing area that is cheaper to run they are far more likely to downsize.

hometruths

Plenty of existing suitable properties everywhere for downsizing, they're just not for sale.

Plenty of existing suitable properties everywhere for trading up, they're just not for sale.

It's not difficult to see what the problem is here.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118555427#Comment_118555427

There are practically no small one/two bedroom houses that would be old age friendly near me. Maybe you are looking at downsizing to a 3 bed house from a 4+ Bed house and yeah they exist but that is looking at a totally different end of the market.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118556392#Comment_118556392

Different end of the market from what? The point is that currently the entire market is clogged up.

It is shortsighted to say if an owner sells and buys it will make no difference. That’s only true if everybody is buying and selling the same type and size of property, but the exact opposite is true of trader uppers and downsizers.

Turnover is important because there are so many different types and size of property that make up the market as a whole. Every transaction has a knock on effect in the entire market. Currently there are too few transactions.

Timing belt

Different market in saying there plenty of places to downsize to.

The average house in Ireland is a 3 bed house…There is not much options for a couple whose kids have grown up and are looking to downsize to a property cheaper to run in retirement because there are very few 1 or 2 bed houses for them to downsize in their existing location that are not apartments. You are saying there are plenty available but not available for sale. All I am saying is that I don’t think the exist.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118556975#Comment_118556975

As well most smaller two bed would be town houses. These would have a single living and dining/ kitchen room. If you transferred into one of these you would have no room downstairs capable of being used as a bedroom. Other than that it is an apartment. Then you have the decision that many of these tend to have a large portion of them as rental properties.

Very few people will downsize from a four bedroom to a three bedroom. The quality of a lot of these two bedroom houses is questionable as well. Most will only have one bathroom upstairs as well. That means an older infirm person may need to climb those stairs 4-6 times a day.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118556975#Comment_118556975

I agree that we need more options for older downsizers, just not convinced there are effectively zero options currently. My point about the transaction volume is that is doesn't matter what end of the market the ball starts rolling in, each transaction triggers another transaction and it will have knock on beneficial effects across the whole market.

I have argued on here before that we should stop building 3 bed semis for FTBers and concentrate on developments than can be attractive for elderly downsizers.

If I was getting on a bit and lived in an SCD street with a few other older folk with large gardens, I'd be trying to get together with the neighbours to market adjoining houses as single site for development. Sell for big cash plus promise of pick of the prime properties when complete.

Sooner or later that will be the only way to shift some of these houses at current prices.

Amadan Dubh

Rory Hearne writing in the Examiner yesterday, analysing the report on the Housing For All progress so far. In short, it has been a complete failure one year on and there are extremely mixed messages from the government around institutionals and how big a part they are actually playing.

Irish Examiner: Rory Hearne: Is the Government's housing policy working?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40796187.html

according to the update report, our very own Department of Housing and Government is actively courting global real estate funds to continue to come to Ireland. This seems quite a reversal of the claims by the Taoiseach that the role of institiutional investor funds in Irish housing delivery was being exaggerated. The report states they are leading “engagement with institutional investors, including tradeshow events, to communicate policies and encourage sustainable investment in residential accommodation”.

The rents the funds charge are hardly ‘sustainable’ from a renters perspective. Then the report notes a department “investment group has invited funding partners to attend and present to the group on their role and experience in funding residential housing delivery”.

But there is no detail on who is this investment group and who they met. We need to know this and who is driving our housing policy and delivery. It seems the private developers and investor funds have a firm grip on the steering wheel.

danfrancisco83

790 properties available to rent in Dublin on Daft, 230 of those are 1 bed/studio. Ryanair will recoup most of their losses by flying planes full of people leaving here this Summer on one way tickets.