Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

Ozark707 · 31-01-2022 12:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558424#Comment_118558424

It is now getting to the stage where companies will not be able to bring in people (if these figures decrease even more) as there will simply be nowhere for them to stay. As some other posters on this thread have stated the only option will probably be that those employers engage directly with REITs and block book several units.

awec · 31-01-2022 12:20pm

Great article on RTE this morning about how the housing market has changed since the mid-80s and how the challenges for first time buyers now are different:

How everything is different for today's first-time buyers (rte.ie)

RichardAnd · 31-01-2022 1:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558270#Comment_118558270

It's a complete failure if one believes that the intention of that scheme was to give average, younger citizens a fair chance to own a home. If, however, one were cynical, one could postulate that it was yet one more step towards what seems to be the goal of the state. Namely, turning citizens from property owners into life-long wealth generating units. If the latter is true, then I think it's mendacious to claim that it was a failure at all...

My two cents, but I'm cynical.

J_1980 · 31-01-2022 2:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558424#Comment_118558424

There is still massive net migration to Ireland. As long as the government still hands out free or almost free/heavily rent subsidised homes this won’t change. It’s time for some tax hikes on the irish middle class.

i have zero sympathy for people who push the left wing narrative and can’t buy a home.

only economically prosperous places in the world without any housing crisis: Texas, Florida, switzerland, Singapore, Japan - all free market low tax jurisdictions.

PommieBast · 31-01-2022 2:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118559279#Comment_118559279

I've long believed that the real goal of the government is to bail out all those people who massively overpaid for housing back in the 2000s. People locked into life-long renting being "accepted" collateral damage rather than a primary goal.

Amadan Dubh · 31-01-2022 2:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118559502#Comment_118559502

This is my view as well that policy which lead to the problems today was implemented ten years ago to bail out the negative equity property owners who, to be fair made up the majority of the voting electorate at the time, but our government lost control around 2016 when the recovery was complete and we needed to get out of the "cap in hand to the international markets" mentality and have a bit more confidence in the strength of the country and its growth prospects ie take back control from the foreign investors and don't be afraid of upsetting them as we would still be an attractive place to invest.

IT have an article on a recruitment company survey of employers, the headline providing that some professional services employees are in line for 25% pay rises in Q1 this year. Since it looks like COVID is finally over in Ireland and restrictions are easing, the tussle between employees and employers will start to play out in the coming months, known as the Great Resignation in the US last year as they reopened. In turn this wage inflation could feed into even more general inflation expectation which will then put even more pressure on the economy.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/professionals-set-for-pay-rises-of-up-to-25-in-coming-months-1.4789796

There is little point in companies offering a pay rise as a morale booster if the impact of that increase isn’t really felt in the real world – and so we are increasingly seeing more companies consider the cost of living when determining the average pay rise.

“Businesses will have to decide how much to raise their salaries to keep their employees, whilst also deciding how much to pass on those costs to their clients and consumers.”

timmyntc · 31-01-2022 2:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118559431#Comment_118559431

All those places bar Texas in parts, are extremely expensive.

In Singapore, housing is almost exclusively state managed. Japan is not a low tax country, and in the cities is extremely expensive.

Switzerland is incredibly expensive also

RichardAnd · 31-01-2022 3:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118559502#Comment_118559502

I'd say that's part of it. Of course, with prices approaching Celtic Tiger highs once again, they well well damn another swath of the population to massive amount of debt, unless they hope for inflation to take care of it. Either way, I for one believe that the state's ability to interfere in the economy to such an extent should simply not exist.

31-01-2022 3:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558424#Comment_118558424

A good few of those are listing with multiple properties, including 1, 2 and 3 bed to rent. Basically all the big developments are only counted once in that number.

Accept that those are generally expensive though. Don’t know how people afford to rent here

hometruths · 31-01-2022 3:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118559502#Comment_118559502

Nail on the head. That's what has caused all the current problems. I suspect those people are in for a shock though when SF start making the rules.

fliball123 · 31-01-2022 4:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118560166#Comment_118560166

People really need to look at Northern Ireland and how Sinn Fein has promised and not delivered on areas such as housing before drinking in the lies that they all spin not just the Shinners. What needs to be done is a huge amount of properties built and people who can no longer pay their mortgage should have their property repossessed. FTB and all other supports for people buying today should be taken away. Level the playing field. We should also stop all vultures and REITS buying and limit landlords to x amount of properties maybe 1 or 2. What rules do you think the shinners will bring in that will make any difference, they cant magic the properties needed out of thin air and I have yet to hear a clear and concise strategy on how they will deal with the housing crisis

iColdFusion · 31-01-2022 4:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118559502#Comment_118559502

I think it was more to do with increasing the value of the loan books the government and NAMA ended up with after the bailouts, higher prices means less losses for them to write off and generating international demand to buy up ghost estates.

I base that on the fact that it would have been a complete U-turn in government policy to actually start giving two f#cks about normal people being able to afford a home, they didn't when they were promoting the Celtic tiger gravy train property bubble and they really, really, really didn't want to do anything about it these days until SF came knocking at their door!

I use the term "government" pretty generally as FF or FG are largely the same and I think a lot of policy is actually dictated by long term civil servants.

Wanderer78 · 31-01-2022 4:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558776#Comment_118558776

...i hope they mentioned the financialisation of our property markets, effectively handing this critical need over to the fire sectors, and the rest is history?????

hometruths · 31-01-2022 4:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118560399#Comment_118560399

I have no idea what SF will do.

What I do know is the current situation has developed because FF and FG (I think FG shoulder more of the blame) pursued policies designed to look after their base - those that got hit hard on paper in the crash of 08.

They are sort of stuck in that lane now.

SF will get into government because those that have suffered from these policies, the younger generation are fed up getting fecked over just to protect the property values for a bunch of people who overextended themselves 15 years ago. This will be the base that SF have to look after.

Whatever SF do, it will be designed to favour their own base and if there is pain to be felt it will be disproportionately felt by FG's base. That's what I meant by "I suspect those people are in for a shock though when SF start making the rules."

RichardAnd · 31-01-2022 4:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118560166#Comment_118560166

I think that Sinn Fein's getting into power would make little difference. There are legions of civil servants who have enormous influence, and they are not elected. Besides, the Left in general all too often play right into the hands of neo-liberalism, whether they realise it or not.

Given that there has been recent talk of a "post-covid boom", I think it is a safe bet that we are condemned to ride this rollercoaster of economic chaos for another decade at the least.

Wanderer78 · 31-01-2022 4:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118560502#Comment_118560502

...i think we re starting to see the major backlash of neoliberalism now globally, i think its toast, so i think sf will have a different approach, but will struggle to change things as the status quo is very strong

Villa05 · 31-01-2022 4:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118559502#Comment_118559502

Those In NE were certainly on their minds as they are more likely to vote than renters, but I'd say the primary target for the government was the rescue of the banks and their balance sheets

Renters in Ireland are second class citizens. Think of the response when energy bills rose a bit. 100 euro for everyone.

Rents are a multiples of energy costs with substantial annual increases. Do you think they'd get even as much as a tax credit

fliball123 · 31-01-2022 5:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118560476#Comment_118560476

I think its FF who should shoulder the blame they were there pre 08 and after making a c0ck up of it and FG were left with an economy that was on the floor. So lets see how SFs tax the rich go when they all flock out of the country as the people they are looking to make the rules against have the capacity to stick 2 fingers up and leave :) its going to be an absolute sh1t show and those on the middle income will be squeezed yet again

amacca · 31-01-2022 7:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118560646#Comment_118560646

FF definitely to blame...totally reckless what they did

FG also to blame, they have had long enough now (even with covid) to not make such a massive cock up of it ..... their policies are moronic so they don't get a free pass afaic.....there have been many many highly questionable policies/decisions under their watch and not just in relation to housing.

SF I shudder to think what kind of bolokology they will come up with....I can't believe I'm saying this but with what I've seen so far from them it looks like they could easily make things even worse.

The only thing I can imagine being worse is if we were somehow governed by the dregs of the Conservatives currently destroying our neighbours across the water...that's literally it, the only solace I can find is Boris Johnson isn't the Taoiseach.

And our current greens with their heads either in the clouds or firmly inserted up their own back passages will get to make a mess of environmental policy no matter who gets in so there's that to look forward to.

Wanderer78 · 31-01-2022 7:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118560646#Comment_118560646

the fault of the crash is a complicated one, i suspect it probably would have occurred who ever was in government before it, as it was a global issue, but ff certainly played their part in it, as did others, including central banks etc. an fg government before the crash, may in fact have been a much worse outcome, as they tend to be a more strictly conservative party, but who knows....

i wouldnt be overly concerned about sf and their tax the rich, they ll try, but they may not succeed, its relatively easily to move capital about the place..... theres also not enough wealthy individuals to tax, to resolve our issues, as most wealth is in fact stored in the value of assets, which are concentrated in wealthy businesses, corporations, institutions, including financial institutions etc etc. we actually need to figure out how to spread this wealth more evenly, but that wont be easy, sf may not be able to do this, and may only get one term to try, so.....

sf do need to crack on with creating public institutions and bodies though, to try somewhat circumvent the need of the taxation of wealth, as wealth primarily uses its own abilities to be able to effectively commandeer assets, including once publicly held assets, these institutions and bodies will gives us a limited ability in creating these assets...

fliball123 · 31-01-2022 7:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118561309#Comment_118561309

I agree I have been on here a few times stating that any party getting into government should have a clear and concise 10 point plan as in 10 things they will do for joe public if and when they get into government for the 4 years. When they are in at the end of the 4 years if they don't get elected again their pensions should be cut by the % of what was not implemented so if they impliemented 1 out of 10 things they promised then they should only get a pension pot of 10%. Its nearly like the bankers back in the boom , getting paid bonuses for arranging 110% mortgages with no one keeping an eye on it not to mention there was no drawback if a person didnt bother paying the mortgage, the lads legged it with their bonuses. I find it galling that any spoofer can promise the sun, moon and stars and have 4 years of first class flights, Limos, champagne and caviar on the tax payers dime and not bother with any of the promises that got them there in the first place and worse still is they get paid a pension when they head into the sunset. This needs to be addressed in order to keep politicians to their word.

Timing belt · 31-01-2022 8:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118561373#Comment_118561373

I agree that crash was a global issue but it was decision to guarantee all the banks deposits that made the crash 100 times worse for Ireland. This decision was made by the government of the time based on the advise of bank leaders and economists such as David McWilliams. It was decision that caused an inflow of cash into Irish banks that contributed to the large cash flows out of the UK and European banks that helped push them over the edge and make the global issue worse.

The following is how SF plan on increasing tax revenue by 2bn but if they generate less tax than expected due to the fact that wealth can be structured so it can sit outside of the tax nets then like every government before them they will resort to taxing the middle income earners to make up for lower than expected tax take.

From a housing perspective I can see how introducing a 2nd Home Charge of 400 euro is going to encourage someone to sell a holiday home.

I don't know how the Wealth tax at 1% will work but if it does included your principal private residency then you could have a lot of people caught up in this net if they own a house in one of the more expensive suburbs of Dublin. 1% may seem small but lets not forget 1% of a million is 10k per year.

Remove the Help to Buy Scheme will result in less private property being built and maybe that is the plan on getting social houses built.

Stamp duty increases on property over 700k will result in people trying to buy under that threshold and create even more demand on regular property.

The increase of the CGT rate to 40% will reduce the supply and probably push up the price of housing on properties over 500k.

I think that all that will happen with housing is that they will increase the supply of social housing which will reduce the pressure on rents but it will be at the expenses of the number of new private houses coming to the market and FTB's will be worse off but that is just my opinion. One thing for sure is that whatever government is in place they will not resolve the issues with housing over night and probably not in a full term in office.

Villa05 · 31-01-2022 9:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558776#Comment_118558776

The evolution of dysfunction

hometruths · 31-01-2022 9:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118561724#Comment_118561724

I don't know how the Wealth tax at 1% will work but if it does included your principal private residency then you could have a lot of people caught up in this net

I think there is no chance it includes PPR given the furore they made about the property tax burden. Net wealth I'd guess removes PPR value as well as liabilities. Something very similiar operates in parts of Spain.

The increase of the CGT rate to 40% will reduce the supply and probably push up the price of housing on properties over 500k.

The CGT one is worded weirdly - 40% on individual incomes above 500k.

But it is a capital tax. Does it apply to all gains irrespective of size if you earn over 500k? Or only to gains over 500k irrespective of income?

It's not very clear. Either way I don't see how that measure specifically effects property over 500k?

RichardAnd · 31-01-2022 9:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118560516#Comment_118560516

There certainly is a back-lash to globalism / neo-liberalism, but I think it's going no where. Really, beyond the online circles of politics or economics, most seem to have no idea what neo-liberalism or globalism is. Furthermore, there are investment funds now that control assets that dwarf the GDP of entire states. Blackrock investment controls, I believe, something in the region of ten trillion dollars. Thus, I disagree that neo-liberalism is toast, respectfully.

With regard to the Irish situation, I genuinely think that SF will do absolutely nothing one way or the other. They can pontificate, wave tri-colours, promise the earth, moon and the stars, but the entire apparatus of the state is a well oiled machine to promote and further the causes of globalism. Just look at something like Ireland 2040. Do you think that that that was cooked up by politicians? SF may as well be a collection of gorillas in suits for all the difference it will make.

The only political parties that seem to have a handle on globalism and actively call it out are those deemed "alt-right", and I would not bank on any of them getting anything more than a few seats here and there. These parties suffer from a massive hinderance in that they almost always court, or are composed of, fundamentalist Catholics, and that will only alienate people who otherwise may have been supporters.

Thus, what do I think that this means for housing? Well, I expect this mess to get worse over the coming years. There will, almost certainly, be one hell of an economic upset somewhere down the road. The state has learned that it can burn out the funny-money printing presses, call the inflation that occurs a boom and not once get called out by the venal, perfidious collection of hit-piece writers referred to as the media. This would be a comedy were it not so sad...

My two cents (rising with inflation).