Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576058#Comment_118576058

To even attempt to sort a problem, you must first, stop making it worse

I think most people understand that and that the big issue with FFG

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576707#Comment_118576707

Could the converse be said about this circa 2008-12? I appreciate credit availability was severely restricted, however rents were so unbelievably low also that there was no incentive to purchase. I recall it not being uncommon for renters to jump ship every few months because of a massive over supply and a better deal could be had.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576513#Comment_118576513

The third level accommodation is too expensive for most students, you'd think they would have incorporated that into their plans

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576572#Comment_118576572

Cheers thanks for your reply. There seems to be alot of experts on here but I appreciate your advise seeing as you have recently bought and yet you are not biased towards stating one must buy. I just think the current market is so heated it's not sustainable and if prices further rise then people just wont be able to afford tye houses. I guess we can only call the present as we see it. The houses we have viewed are so ran down and overpriced. If the prices do go up further then so be it, but we wont panic buy a house that we may have out grown in a few years.

Excellent point very well made. My brother is in this boat. Thinks it's great his house has gone up in value, wants to buy a bigger house but the jump is far greater than what he would make on his current property.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576886#Comment_118576886

Thanks for your reply. Whether we are right or wrong but I'm with you on this one. Some of my friends are literally borrowing money from family on top of a maxed mortgage just go get a house they want now, but a few years ago wouldn't have even viewed. Some cant even furnished it they are so broke from borrowing. All the best to them but I hope they dont regret it in 2 or 3 years time.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576729#Comment_118576729

Cheers for reply. If prices go up by 250k in 2 years then we all may forget about living. The world will officially be gone mad.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576512#Comment_118576512

If you work in construction will you get a mortgage in a few years if building goes bang again? Does your missus have a secure job? At e850 rent a month you have it handy, I'd be inclined to squirrel away a few quid for a couple of years.

I don't believe the amount of houses the government is buying is sustainable at the current rate and they will have to put the brakes on. They are fuelling price rises and the whole thing is the Celtic tiger 2 at the mo. Your friends that bought at 750k, would the materials cost much more than 100k to build it?! I doubt it

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118577840#Comment_118577840

Cheers thank you. Yes, herself works in medical sector so has secure job. We are putting away roughly 3k between us a month so if we keep that going it seems itll suffice. Yeah, 750k was a ridiculous price but they really wanted it, hope they dont regret it in a few years.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576392#Comment_118576392

" I work in the Construction industry and commute for work now, so I know what a house 'should' be worth. Are people crazy to buy houses that are at least 70k overpriced and sometimes even more?"

How you can tell what's the house real value? and how much it's overprices? Different people will see different value. Who is right, who is wrong...

JDigweed

Popcorn at the ready for Prime Time!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118578279#Comment_118578279

Yes, fair point. A house means more to people than the materials in it.

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118578640#Comment_118578640

The guy hosting the debate Fran did a great job of putting pressure on them but my god they are both experts at not answering a straight question!

Eoin o Broin didn't say anything that would convince me he could actually deliver on SF's promises, he thinks he can just snap his fingers and bring 5000 vacant properties back to life in one year, he's totally wrong on them being the quick solution, it's far easier for a council to build 50 houses on a greenfield site than refurb 50 vacant or derelict houses.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118577031#Comment_118577031

For me it is also about supply picking up, not just about prices potentially dropping, so people have a bit more variety in what is available at these high prices rather than bidding over the odds for something they're not fully happy with just to have anything.

The way things are going with COVID ending, it looks like heading into spring/summer 2023 would be a more optimistic time to be buying the long term home. Particularly as a home buyer, a lot of people coming over here for jobs aren't coming here to buy homes and building sites were shuttered for months the last past two years so I don't think that the post-covid migration tap being turned back on will impact on the home buying market too much particularly in terms of the availability of properties, if not the price.

It's amazing how people think anything over a year or two years in the grand scheme of a 25/30 year mortgage is someone a long time but I see people fretting the whole time and not appreciating that COVID restrictions ending followed by a period of recovery to normality will take time, at least a year when it's over, so no need to be so panicked.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118578931#Comment_118578931

House prices won’t drop until you start seeing a drop in rents due to more rental supply and more properties available for sale. If you think this will happen by spring/summer 2023 you are more of an optimist than myself.

After watching the debate tonight it looks like SF are only concerned about social housing and will suck all resources into it with less private houses available to buy as a result. Whether this policy would free up rental properties and reduce rent would be dependent on whether they priorities people living at home with parents or HAP recipients. I can’t see how there policy will help FTB’s

jj880

Its really crazy to think this is happening again. Im gettin a strong smell of "This time it will be different" in this thread - just waiting on someone to say it will be a soft landing any day now.

We're completely fvcked and if people thought the 2008 crash was bad they better get strapped in.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118579178#Comment_118579178

how will it crash this time?

Property crashed the last time because of an oversupply on the market and the fact that banks stopped lending. This time around we have an undersupply and it is highly unlikely that banks will stop lending except an individuals credit deteriorates as the regulator has taken steps to prevent this happening.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118577840#Comment_118577840

100k in building materials isn't a lot and it's a hell of a lot less than what you could get for that 18 months ago.

I hope you aren't thinking a 100k would go along way in building a house.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118579178#Comment_118579178

There is a wall of saved money driving this, massive shortfall in supply.

Hopefully house price increases will stop, it's a false economy.

However outstanding debt has fallen to a 17 year low, household savings are at an all time high. Irish house hold debt to GDP is very, very low.

It's not 2008 but House prices here are a serious problem.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118579178#Comment_118579178

The last time the market crashed we were building 80k+ houses a year. That is 4 times last year's number's. From 2000-2008 we build 550k houses or 60 k houses a year.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-mip/measuringirelandsprogress2012/economy/economy-housing/

When we reach 2/3 of the numbers for 3-4 years in a row I will be getting worried

JDigweed

I'm going to give SF the benefit of doubt and hope that when they talk about social housing its a for a mix of incomes and not just the lower incomes that sit on housing lists. There's a high proportion of people that earn above that threshold and are priced out of the market currently. They should have an option to buy or rent good quality social housing and not this shared equity nonsense.

I'm only on this thread a day and there seems to be 2 sides to this debate. People who have bought a house in the last 12 months are telling people to buy buy (with the exception of one or two). Whereas people like myself see how dysfunctional the current housing market is and are happy to wait and see and not buy a house we dont really want. Renting seems to be a dirty word in Irish society of late. Which approach is right remains to be seen. I know I would rather pay rent for the next 12 to 18 months and see how things go than be stuck with a huge mortgage for a house I dont see myself in in 5years time. I recently read am article by a well known economist asking potential buyers to pull out of the market as its complete dysfunctional. We haven't seen any fallout from Covid 19 yet. It's going to affect everything considering the debt the state have ran up. No such thing as free money. That's just my opinion so please dont get defensive anyone, each to their own.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118579178#Comment_118579178

I just wish people would stop with the hysteria. People need to realize the materials that go into new houses are at an all time high. Take timber for example, this has almost risen by 50% in price over the last 12 months. People need to realize that these material prices will come back to where they were pre pandemic. People will not literally be able afford to live if inflation didnt sort itself out in the next 12 months. A combination of factors have seen the rise (Covid 19 shutdown, cost of transportation etc). The same goes for the second hand car market. It was stated just last week some second hand cars are being sold for more than a new car in the same model, and yet people are still buying these second hand cars. I really cant get over how some people think! People need to take a few deep breaths and less of the panic buying.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118579213#Comment_118579213

No, you would probably need 250k at present to build a nice size house, provided you have been given a site. I come from a rural part of the west of Ireland. My friends sister is building a house at present, herself and her husband are project managing it. This basically means they are coordinating all the trades and cutting out the middle man so to speak. Saves them a tonne of money. They are building a very nice two storey house, I was talking to them over the Christmas and they said it will be finished of for 230k. And remember the materials they are buying are at an all time high, timber for example has risen 50% in the last 12 months. They decided not to wait because they had the money, and in fairness 230k is a very decent price for the house they will have when finished. If they had waited until price of materials come down or in hindsight had built pre-pandemic, they would have the same house for about 180k.

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118579756#Comment_118579756

I agree with your sentiment that the housing market seems and feels dysfunctional at the moment, but I have been reading posts by people encouraging others to adopt a 'wait and see' approach on here for literally ten years now.

Back in 2012 the market was set to fall further, in 2014 it was a dead cat bounce about to implode again, in 2018 there simply wasn't value for money and the rest is history. Those that purchase have a substantial chunk of their mortgage paid off by now.

If you can wait to see it out then great, you should do so. Factor in house price increases in your scenario planning though in the same way that you are banking on a collapse in the market.

Some people don't have the time to wait endlessly for the big collapse though. Life moves on, they're getting older, people have children and circumstances dictate that it's time to get serious about buying. So let's not look down on those that are in the market at the minute.

DataDude

Milltown residents say build-to-rent scheme will create ‘a ghettoised population’ (irishtimes.com)

Blackrock residents oppose seven-storey Frascati apartment scheme (irishtimes.com)

Two articles published on the same day. The sheer contempt held by home owners for the younger generation and renters as a whole really is staggering. It amazes me that these people are comfortable putting their names to such comments and I really hope one day they become socially unacceptable. Similarly all the talk of the "cost of living crisis" at the moment because energy bills are going up. If you think that's bad, try renting in Dublin for the last 5 years...but of course that's not news worthy because renters aren't real people.

"Milltown residents Mary Hennessy and Ton van Nuenen have told the council that the units proposed “will create a significant transitory population due to little variation of tenancy, or size of unit across the accommodations”. 

They said “the effect of such a ghettoised population will be to create a significant disruption factor within what is a mature residential area”, adding that renters “will contribute little to the support of an established community”. "

"The objection lodged by Dr William Killeen on behalf of the association said that he and its members “feel that any investment made in our houses run the risk of serious monetary impairment if the scheme is approved”.

A number of other objections have been lodged from the area, with Daniel Crean telling the council that “Ireland needs new houses – everyone deserves a home to live in, but it needs to be done in the appropriate manner and in the right location”.

Underground

Just read an article in the IT about Milltown residents objecting to plans for a 97 unit BTR scheme.

Holy sh*t, I thought Ranelagh residents were bad but the disdain for renters and love of NIMBYism seems to have had a contagion effect and infected Milltown. Some of the quotes from residents in the article are nothing short of disgraceful.

There's the usual line about how the scheme will harm the character of the locale and "injure" the social / visual amenities of the area, literally something I never hear anyone talk about ever. The only time I see the character of a locale referenced is in nimby articles in the paper.

Residents are complaining that the units would create a "transient" and even "ghettoised" population, as the prospective tenants would be filthy renters and not setting down family roots.

One of the residents note that the proposed scheme effectively "locks out" anyone who may have wanted to purchase a home in Milltown. I'm not exactly sure how they've arrived at that conclusion. I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that if these apartments were built for sale to the general public instead of BTR, this person would still be wholeheartedly objecting to the scheme.

It's the same old story. Well-off middle aged homeowners pulling up the drawbridge after them. It's the case with property as with pensions in this country.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118579968#Comment_118579968

I agree with you to an extent. I'm not expecting a big collapse at all. I just feel right now the selection of properties are pretty abysmal. In 12 months time prices may have increased but you'd hope one might have more options if new houses have been built and will get a house closer to what they want than just buying any kind of house now.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118579811#Comment_118579811

What makes you think they only go up 50%?

people all want big government and need low interest rates. Last time that was tried was the 70’s and prices rose far more than 50%….

this whole supply chain excuse it total nonsense. Spouted by lefties who realise their economic model still isn’t working…

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118579695#Comment_118579695

....this is going to be critical going forward, we urgently need to increase the stock of 'public housing', this is a combination of both social and other types of accommodation, but all these types must always remain in public ownership. an increasing amount of people cannot afford either rental or purchasing, this is where the state must step in, and public housing is the way to do it, many of these individuals can afford to pay substantially more than many social housing tenents, large amounts of public borrowing is required to build, and these individuals can pay a significant amount of this debt.