Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580059#Comment_118580059

I work in the construction sector and deal with suppliers on a daily basis. Prices should, or at least they say go back to somewhat normal by Q3 this year. Clients are holding out on starting projects until materials prices come down. If they dont come down then projects will be shelved which means a downturn in the market.

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580085#Comment_118580085

this has happened in a new development near me. majority of the 3/4beds shelved until materials come down , only 12 being completed as they were started just as materials began rising last year

GoldFour4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580085#Comment_118580085

Projects being shelved means less supply coming onto the market which will increase prices further.

I see sheep

Good video from Russel Brand about REITs a very bleak view of what's happening in the US.

Could it happen here?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXTPzFSx6oI&ab_channel=RussellBrand

iColdFusion

Has anyone seen any sign of any affordable sale or shared equity schemes coming up from their local authorities or even being allowed to register for future schemes?

We are circa 6 months on from Housing for all being announced and I hear a lot of talk but zero actually happening!

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118579756#Comment_118579756

We have not seen any economic fallout from COVID yet, I agree, and this is because the ECB and the government have done everything to ensure there was little to no fallout. Our GDP, employment and inflation figures, the level of savings and robustness all point to a booming economy. This is because of the actions of the government and ECB, but as you said "we haven't seen any fallout yet".

It's not normal or sustainable to have the government and ECB propping everything up indefinitely and even inflating assets from actions that were supposed to just prevent a crash, not cause a boom! A correction or a cooling ("soft landing") of sorts in assets will follow as things get back to normal and supports are removed, the question is how much of a cooling, but given the massive dislocation between assets and the real economy, there is scope for a material cooling.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580085#Comment_118580085

What about the US1tr infrastructure. The 750bn next gen EU funds. Italy wants to rebuild a whole new high speed train network. The amount of steel, wood, labour needed for that….

not a cent of that has been spent yet. You don't need irish houses for price inflation.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580131#Comment_118580131

These are non residential projects. My point being large multinational clients are shelving alot of Commercial projects which means less demand on materials which in turn leads to greater supply, so we know what that means. It'll be a toppsy turvy year for all with lots of bumps and no one knows what way things will go, particularly for many construction companies who specialize in commercial projects. There will be alot of redundancies if people continue to work from home, as there will be no need for fancy office spaces.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118579695#Comment_118579695

People are going to vote SF because it is the only feasible way to give FF/FG the kick up the arse they really need. It is basically drain the swamp but without the racism.

Trouble is that even if (and it is a very big if) a future government gets its act together, how long would it take for them to actually sort things out? I'm not hanging around for 10 years for it to happen.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580214#Comment_118580214

unfortunately i suspect we ll still be talking about this in 10 years, but if we re not well on the way to resolving it, we re in serious trouble....

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580214#Comment_118580214

By the time this government’s turn runs out we’ll be back to austerity. Sweet f all SF will be able to do then. There was a 1y window for big government Spending and that has passed.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580226#Comment_118580226

theres probably sufficient belief that austerity wont be done again, theres definitely sufficient evidence to support, its a train wreck of an idea, and does far more damage to implement....

jj880

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118579811#Comment_118579811

I didnt say the next crash (and contributing factors) will be the same as the last one.

"People have savings. The price of houses AND materials are going up this time so prices will level off. There's no supply of houses."

These are the new versions of: Rent is dead money, Are you renting or buying? There'll be a soft landing, Bertie on the TV saying the tiger will roar for another 20 years and anyone who whinges should jump off a pier somewhere.

Everyone has their own definition of hysteria. Mine would be people panicking and convincing themselves to buy towards the end of a bubble.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580124#Comment_118580124

Yes, and there will be alot more of this happening. People tend to bury their head in the sand and think everything is great, big wages, massive mortgages. Its unsustainable whether we want to believe it or not.

Underground

SF will get in to government at next election, make a balls of it, and then lose to FF / FG / FF & FG coalition combo and we will be right back here, only at that point Leo or Helen or whoever is leading FG will be able to say "now didn't we tell you not to vote for those silly shinners?"

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580253#Comment_118580253

Agreed, so are you buying? lol

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580256#Comment_118580256

sf are actually the only ones talking sense, its clearly obvious the ffg approach is never going to work, but sf will absolutely struggle to get their ideas off the ground, and since the electorate has had enough, they may only get one go at it, and this issue will absolutely not be resolved in a single term.....

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580233#Comment_118580233

so Argentina’s approach is working then?

because that’s what the west is trying to do now. The US will be the first to turn away from it (22, definitely 24), and the resulting $ strength will force the EU to follow.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580354#Comment_118580354

oh ffs, no its not!

countries such as Argentina, Zimbabwe, Venezuela etc etc, are the way they are for various different reasons, the most common being due to serious supply side issues, and the fact that the bulk of their debts are in foreign denominations such as the dollar, the majority of our debts are in euros....

again, we are in this situation primarily due to our default position of the over reliance on the private sector money supply, the credit supply, the only way to counteract this is to increase our reliance on the public supply, i.e. public debt, and become less reliant on the credit supply, in which is hard wired for returns, public debt isnt, it just needs to be serviced, and can, and regularly is, permanently rolled over, until fully serviced. it is rare that a country fully pays its debts, doing so, would more than likely cause a serious economic crisis, as it would result in a dramatic fall in the money supply, as debt is the money supply....

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580396#Comment_118580396

Well whatever.

prices will rise until the western “needs based” welfare model breaks.

so don’t expect any drops in property prices.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580410#Comment_118580410

yes, prices will more than likely keep rising, largely due to our chronic supply problems, and the fact, we re still driving a primarily fire sector approach to this need, again, credit is its main tool, and credit is hardwired to maximise returns, at all costs, a similar issue is also occurring at the corporate level, hence the dramatic rise in financialised activities such as share buy backs etc etc, i.e. returns are easier and faster via these methods, rather than investing in productive means, i.e. creating new assets etc....

what in gods name are you talking about 'needs based welfare model'?

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580278#Comment_118580278

SF are making some big promises that to me seem pie in the sky stuff and I expect them to double down on them when there's an election coming but I think they will be their own undoing, whatever social housing demand is at the moment it will rise sharply if they get into power, shur why wouldn't it when they are promising everyone a brand new state subsidised house or apt!

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580435#Comment_118580435

Unemployed/low level employed people getting a €250k house for pennies rent, a dole that is higher than the average salary in China.

Chinese people have a higher iq than irish, better education (in science subjects) and MUCH better work ethic. Eastern china should be richer than Ireland. Simples as. Currency and price moves will force that adjustment over the next decade in a globalised world. If their living standards go higher someone else’s has to drop, hence the so called “supply bottlenecks”, in reality this is just countries getting richer buying up e.g. all the LNG at any price as they can afford this now. This won’t go away.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580481#Comment_118580481

yup, oppositions tend to make all sorts of promises that simply cant be made, and that is more than likely the situation here to, sf are gonna really struggle in government, theyre gonna have to pony up with all sorts of uncomfortable partners, in order to get the job done, and that might not work out for anyone.... social housing alone wont solve this, we need a broad arrange of solutions and approaches, we ll also need major involvement from private sector entities to, including the fire sectors, all that wont be easy.... they ll struggle...

SmokyMo

I am biased because of my extreme dislike at dysfunction and blatant corruption of FF/FG culture. However.

Watching Eoin Ó Broin stumble over his words on prime time and not able to answer core questions, which were simple enough was, alarming. I understand the program is too short for any meaningful discussion and should be a long format. Still I think Darragh O'Brien came off better.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580507#Comment_118580507

be ta jaysus!

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580481#Comment_118580481

is what FF/FG are promising any better ? half a billion spent on HAP alone in 2020...

jj880

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580271#Comment_118580271

😆

Yeah got my eye on a bedsit in Athlone. 500k. Bit of a fixxerupper but need to get on the ladder.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580225#Comment_118580225

Things like the latest Metrolink delay don't exactly fill me with confidence. Maybe if these projects got rammed thru planning as quickly as all the cycle lanes on the Dublin Quays did then maybe Ireland would have a hope.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118580627#Comment_118580627

yea these delays are a serious problem, if we want to get serious in regards reducing carbon etc, we ve got to crack on with public transport, this is the only way to truly deal with the problem, we have to flood the country with alternative transport options, we cant keep defaulting to the personal car