Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118598909#Comment_118598909

flemming is clearly full of sh1t, this is a global phenomenon, central banks, along side other major institutions, arent exactly sure what causes inflation, as this is the first time in decades we ve been experiencing it, but clearly it has something to do with the fact, global supply chains have been severely disrupted over the last couple of years, causing significant problems in most supply chains. many businesses are also struggling to survive, so in order to combat all of this, they must raise their prices.....

again, borrowing and giving this money to citizens, to help them meet their needs, makes perfect sense, as most money that has been created in both the public and private domains in recent times, has simply been used to inflate asset prices, in particular property, these actions have only helped current asset owners....

flemmings comment is just the height of ignorance, and he truly believes it, along side others in government, one of the main reasons for the cost of living is clearly directly related to policies implemented over the years, of which ff have played a major role, but its much easier to pick on the people, isnt it!

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118598968#Comment_118598968

Because it a lot of people disposables incomes seemed higher during COVID. People have come from a situation COVID where they struggled to spend money to where now we have inflation on top of them being able to spend money. They feel as if there freedom is gone

It amazing for the call for price controls on untilities and day to day items. We tried this in the 70/80's and it failed as it kept prices up.

Remember as well we have bought minimum alcohol pricing. This has again fueled inflation on a certain group of individuals. This is the cohort that often shout loudest.

His slab has gone up by 10 euro, the wife's two bottles of wine by 5-6 euro. There diesel bill may have trebled as one may have being working from home.

Really interesting one I heard was of a lad that has his own business and had an empty shed. When heating oil was at 43c/ L he filled IBC's with 10k litres of kerosene cost him 4,k because of the volume he bought. That is an extreme correlation of the difference between living hand to mouth and planning your spending.

Amadan Dubh

This article could have been written about Ireland - a sign of things to come.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/feb/07/uk-house-prices-reach-new-record-but-cost-of-living-crisis-threatens-growth

“While the limited supply of new housing stock to the market will continue to provide some support to house prices, it remains likely that the rate of house price growth will slow considerably over the next year,” said Russell Galley, a managing director at Halifax.

Halifax, which has previously said that the housing market “defied expectations” last year, said affordability remains at historically low levels as price rises continue to outstrip growth in earnings.

Last week, the Bank of England raised interest rates for the second time in three months, as it sought to temper inflation, which is running at a 30-year high of 5.4%, with analysts expecting further rises later this year.

Homeowners are also facing a dramatic increase in living costs, including higher energy and food bills, rising phone and broadband charges, and increased national insurance payments from April.

“This situation is expected to become more acute in the short term as household budgets face even greater pressure from an increase in the cost of living and rising interest rates begin to feed through to mortgage rates,” said Galley. “Despite record levels of first-time buyers stepping on to the ladder last year, younger generations still face significant barriers to homeownership as deposit requirements remain challenging.”

“Deposits will be key to the level of house price inflation this year,” said Anthony Codling, the chief executive of the property data site Twindig. “Those with a big deposit will be able to rise above the living and mortgage cost rises, those without will not unfortunately. The deposit poor will also find it harder to save as living costs rise.”

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599016#Comment_118599016

So we are back to the magic money tree. We tried that I. The 70'.s, 80's, and noughties it ended in tears every time and will again. It means higher taxation at some stage. This means middle Ireland will pay for all the inflation.

MacronvFrugals

Hadn't heard this policy was coming to an end...

Strict new rules for councils when buying property on the market for social housing

"Department of Housing issues ban on second-hand purchases to avoid competition with first-time buyers"

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/strict-new-rules-for-councils-when-buying-property-on-the-market-for-social-housing-41323141.html

AlmightyCushion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599294#Comment_118599294

Can they actually stop them or are they just essentially asking them to stop? What happens if a council continues buying properties?

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118596782#Comment_118596782

Plus wages in Nes Zealand are lower than in Ireland on average

Pussyhands

Serious upwards pressure on rents again now that the borders are open.

The desperation can be seen in facebook groups. Brazilians begging for somewhere to stay as their accom runs out in a few days.

Foreign students delaying their exchange because the accom crisis is so bad.

FF and FG are a disgrace. And then people felt sorry for Leo because he had a few people shouting outside his window. Give me a break.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118598045#Comment_118598045

North Wicklow is basically Dublin prices. Worse in many cases.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118597594#Comment_118597594

that seems incredibly ambitious pricing. Even in the context of the current market.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118598909#Comment_118598909

I think most people understand this. Dunnes can be h&s hazard lately with heads down on phone calculators as they speed through the specials and then a mad dash to Aldi/lidl.

Inflation has for decades been wholly caused by state intervention, protected sectors, ineffective regulation taxes and governance

Fleming and his colleagues would do well to get the led out and (a) stop making things worse (b) correct the uncompetitive practices implemented over those decades

Lecturing us on what we already know, typical nonsense from clueless representatives

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599036#Comment_118599036

You must also remember that during lockdown peoples spending habits changed whereby they spent more on goods than services. The weighting’s on the CPI didn’t change so any inflation on goods was understated in the CPI during that period and 2 years inflation showed up when spending on services returned leading to a higher CPI.

As the economy returns to normal the consumer is hit with a reduced disposable income and price rises leading to them feeling the effect of inflation. This then in turn has lead to the expectation that they will see further inflation which has lead to price increases as business raise prices so not to get caught on the wrong end of inflation.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118598909#Comment_118598909

Biggest problem is people may struggle with time to do things like this. One of the most interesting phenomenon's over the last 30 years is the drift to prepaid utilities or paying insurance over 10 months. Both add 25-30 % to the bills.

Would there popularity coincide with 0 hours contracts and people on low wages waiting up to a month for wages and then hamerred with emergency tax

Son started first job, just some of the issues encountered. Six weeks before first payment. Was not like that when we started.

All gov driven changes

yaknowski

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599528#Comment_118599528

Yes and I assume the name change/removing the street address on the adverts is to avoid people seeing what it sold for less than 2 years ago.

Max 200k renovations.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599687#Comment_118599687

The renovation looks to be done to an ok standard, not high end but not basic either, and BER is B2 now, i can imagine they may have spent 300k maybe bit even at that 1.35m seems very very frothy

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599432#Comment_118599432

There was also never a market for the "well paid staff" of MNCs to pay London rental prices in the new build apartments like Capital Dock at €2.5k pm for 1 beds, €3k pm for 2 beds etc. Most normal MNC workers do balk at even €1k pm for a room in a pretty basic apartment in a city like Dublin.

Yes, Brazilians and other student-type / low-paid workers need somewhere to live as well as these better paid MNC workers but the demand only exists at affordable levels; not €2k+ pm for a place! I could see a decent sized employer like a PayPal or a Facebook make some sort of announcement regarding future hiring plans in Ireland the way things are going.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118596868#Comment_118596868

Ireland is dyfunctional and expensive hole. I have been sale agreed for over 12 months and am about to pull out unless they pay up. REAs not working on weekends, a pigs breakfast of a legal system that makes property and other things incredibly inefficient and expensive.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599780#Comment_118599780

As wages increase in the tech sector they will be on a London wage and be able to pay a London rent especially when they have no other choice due to low supply of rental properties.

jo187

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118598909#Comment_118598909

I unfortunately have to pay my insurance over 10 months as don't have money upfront.

It's the TD Flemings tone. Do some work instead of blaming the government.

Petrol is high because of tax, they voted against rent freeze and haven't done anything to help the spiralling rents.

How the hell am I suppose to shop around that

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118598909#Comment_118598909

Covid did not drive energy through the roof, a ludicrous faith and over investment in utterly unreiable wind energy caused this. Europe added heaps of new wind infrastructure in the summer and so didn't think much gas would be required in the winter because Nordstream 2 would open and the wind would be howling. Putin moved over 100k troops to threaten Ukraine and made opening Nordstream an issue and the wind didn't blow this winter. Add to that the utter stupidity of shuttering zero CO2 nuclear plants in mid winter, and the Germans have screwed over Europe big time. The French are usuallly handy with supplying the rest of Europe with surplus cheap zero CO2 nuclear power, but they have had to cut back for some unscheduled repairs after some cracks were found after 20 years of reliable operation.

Simple supply and demand. The demand for gas went up, and was unforseen, while supply was constrained.

As for Ireland's great energy policy:

Wind producing less than 1% of the nations needs at 6pm.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599872#Comment_118599872

During Covid the price of oil fell heavily for a period which lead to a large % increase in CPI when oil prices recovered to pre pandamic levels. This Base effect added at least 2% to the CPI as it is measured Year on year. This increase will disappear from the CPI this year leading to a lower inflation on energy despite energy prices increasing.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118598645#Comment_118598645

I would love to buy pharmaceuticals from the UK, or Europe, where they are 80% cheaper, but the Irish government has taken one of those stupid special case loop holes in the supposedly common market and used it to deny Irish people access to cheaper markets. Protectionism wasn't supposed to be a core feature of the 'common' market, but Ireland manage it with cars, pharmaceuticals, fuels, and alcohol. If houses were transportable, they would find a way to close that off too.

The stitch up with pharmaceuticals is just unconscionable. Irish people have the worst and least access to low priced generic drugs in the EU or OECD, and it's deliberate.

I did just get 3.5Kg of coffee from Germany, so at least there are a couple of holes the Irish government hasn't managed to plug, like with that wonderful VRT import duty stand-in.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599838#Comment_118599838

Rent increases are capped at the lower of 2% or Inflation.

As inflation is higher than 2% this means that the cost of rent in REAL terms is falling

jo187

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599933#Comment_118599933

Yeah sure. I must remember that when I spending most of my money on rent

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599913#Comment_118599913

Do you mean they are pulling energy from the CPI basket?

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599950#Comment_118599950

No what it means is energy prices fell during COVID this hid inflation last year and the year before. Now we are seeing energy prices not only recorrect but catch up with the three years they missed out on. That process will not be repeated we hope

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599291#Comment_118599291

Seems logical that the state should build on under utilised land to fulfill social/affordable targets to help protect middle ireland as opposed to sourcing from the private market.

Every house built potentially frees up another one

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599950#Comment_118599950

No.... What I am saying is that the price increase in the CPI is measured by comparing todays price to the price last year.

For the period Feb-2020 to Feb-2021 the price of oil was low because of covid and when you compare todays price to a year before it leads to an larger % increase which is what is used in the CPI Calculation. This Base effect will fall away from Feb 2022 onwards which will result in a lower % increase in energy prices in the CPI because they will be comparing the price rise to the price that is closer to the long term average of Energy.

e.g

If you compare the price of oil in Apr-2020 to Apr-2021 it shows an increase of 240% which is what is used in the CPI calculation despite the fact that the price of oil was more or less at the same level as 2019.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118599913#Comment_118599913

Central banks are just as concerned about core inflation (stickiness) as they are about the headline rate.

The trend in oil price is still upward and airlines for example are someway off pre pandemic levels of demand. Oil is up a third on pre Xmass price

cnocbui

Er, yeah, that's obvious. I thought you were inferring something eles. Are carbon taxes included in the CPI, because those utter mongs in government don't appear to be concerned at the rise in energy prices they have orchestrated and so far have stated they have no intention of backtracking on?

A few pages back you stated government debt per capita wasn't a good way of looking at it or some such.

My benchmark is government debt per income tax payer, which at €150,000 per head is insane in my view. Sinc e income tax payers are a small group, they are the rock from which the blood has to be squeezed in order to pay the debt. Simply not possible that I can see. We are more indebted than Greece. God, I can't wait to get out from under this: imagine something large, heavy and descending fast in a classic Road Runner cartoon, as being fairly appropriate.