Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118647299#Comment_118647299

That might explain this nonsense so. Poor me with my €100k deposit and 2 x incomes from a tech firm...can only afford Portmarnock.

I know the Indo is a rag but this is scraping the barrel. And an insult to people who genuinely cannot afford to buy a house.

IMG-20220219-WA0007.jpg

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118660417#Comment_118660417

Dublin has 3000 listings, 2000 of these are up to 500k.

they (in indo) can easily buy something, probably has to be the 3bed semi scd coast…

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118658378#Comment_118658378

These “big investors” aren’t a bunch of wealthy guys. These are widely held pension funds etc.

if central banks push rates to 7% below inflation what do you expect pension funds to do? Not everyone has a gold plated public sector pension.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118660822#Comment_118660822

So they're essentially faceless entities which are harvesting resources from individuals? There is absolutely no way this is sustainable and I also have a feeling something is going to give; faceless corporates or individuals - it cannot be that faceless corporates hoard housing while individuals can barely afford to survive, in a Western country as well. I sense there is a big assumption or multiple assumptions (eg demand is stable) that is actually a foundation of sand on which to state the housing market will remain solid and not correct significantly.

There are too many assumptions about the current housing situation that make me stand back and think "wow, there is something seriously wrong here and the situation cannot be sustainable." For example, in a country of home ownership being a targeted outcome for individuals in society, we let investment funds take on 90% of all new build apartments?! The wacky assumption is that somehow without the funds these apartments wouldn't even exist; that is a ridiculous assumption that gets credibility but honestly it's a total con and is one of the facades of our housing market that will collapse and be revealed to be a con.

Edit: considering the context for this post is the asset bubble, the other ridiculous assumption that seems to have credibility is that somehow valuations are justified. This is the S&P500 performance for 20 years. Can anyone credibly claim that this is in any way sustainable?! Just look at it versus its past twenty years, it has exploded so high, so quickly that I just laugh at commentaries writing about corrections of only 20%; that would still look like a ridiculous graph with only 20% taken off current valuations! Essentially, we have been in a euphoric state in recent years where the insane has been painted as normal or sustainable but it absolutely is not and I think reality will have to hi home at some stage that maybe central banks just keeping the magic money printers on full power perpetually is not a stable policy to run economies on. The funny thing is that despite central banks in Europe and the US printing so much money in recent years, a liquidity squeeze will occur and everyone will wonder what happened to all the cash that had been printed which was sloshing around assets when the liquidity squeeze happens; it will turn out that the hyper QE cash was just squandered into assets and enriching further the already rich.

mcsean2163

6 Nov 2022

All 12156

Wicklow - 468

Kildare - 498

10 Dec 2021

All - 11657

22 Jan 2022

All - 10711

30 Jan

All - 10758

Wicklow - 383

Kildare - 462

19 Feb 2022

All - 10895

Wicklow - 405

Starting to tick up ever so slightly.....

LJ12345

It’s a house of cards globally, and manipulated to the point of no return, markets in the US are either going to crash badly this year or the rabbit will be pulled out of the hat for as long as possible which would lead to lord knows what sort of implosion down the line. Ireland will be insulated for a while but I see red flags in Europe and those in power are likely to either lead us toward huge unchecked inflation or huge deflation and possible recession, or perhaps a bit of both. (I really hope I’m wrong)

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118660938#Comment_118660938

NEVER look at rising asset prices on its own. Always look at ratios.

for example:

london (house prices/ M4 money supply) are at the same level they were in mid 80’s yet you constantly hear how unaffordable these are. Total nonsense as evidently there is enough money out there to buy them (record volumes, record prices).

all the QE cash has to go somewhere. Been going to assets since 2008 and only recently circulated into the economy since covid. As soon as you do that you have “real inflation” on a massive cost of living crisis scale.

rising house prices frustrate maybe 20% of the population (private renters, up-sizers) who vote sinn fein now in addition to the core “republican vote”. The rest doesn’t care. Rising cost of living frustrate 70% of the population. All big revolutions (arab spring, fall of iron curtain, French Revolution) started because of the latter, not the former.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118661559#Comment_118661559

I think at least the fed will hike interest rates to a degree to curtail asset prices. Still don't thing the ecb can even exit QE, half of the eurozone is technically bankrupt.

and even if they do, irish property prices are mid level valuation compared globally. Maybe expect more choice but not lower prices.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118658378#Comment_118658378

We are past the cusp here. Housing is not an area big business should be allowed to play in. The Germans have realised this, which may be why their funds are over here buying up all the assets of the naive Irish.

Even developers stick in my craw. I think the ideal, which is how things used to be in Oz, is for people wanting a house to find and buy a block of land and then engage a builder to build a house on it.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118662352#Comment_118662352

So you want even more sprawl?

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118661972#Comment_118661972

I think the rising house prices are frustrating more than 20% these days as we saw in the 2016 census that approximately 80% of 25-34 year olds were not home owners and I think the 2021 census will probably show us a similar proportion but probably you could extend that from 25-39 year olds. Five years later that becomes 80% of 25-44 year olds etc. What this means is that you have two very polarized groups in society; non-homeowners happy to see the whole property market crash and homeowners happy to see it remain in a growth trajectory as their house is their wealth, for now and into retirement. Unfortunately I don't see how the two competing groups can be united at this stage so it is really going to come down to who commands more voting power that will determine the course of our property market and of course the voting power appears to be shifting swiftly from one side to the other.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118662352#Comment_118662352

Germany has some of the biggest property funds (Vonovia, Deutsche Wohnen) which absolute dwarf the Ireland based reits in size.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118662409#Comment_118662409

Yes, the more the merrier.

IamMe33

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118662569#Comment_118662569

Not to mention all those those already home owners but housing all their non yet home owner offspring.

All of whom appear to have no hope of ever moving out due to government complicity with vulture funds, councils treacherously snapping up homes and driving up prices from under FTB's noses, and incompetence on a grand scale by absolutely no basic grasp of future planning to a growing population's basic requirement for housing - even going so far as to put a halt to all construction for a good portion of a year!

Throw in all the shady NAMA deals that fire-saled so much excess property to aforementioned funds, entities now employing former high-level NAMA directors and the public generally locked out of snapping up these bargains at the time, and this FFG mob can only but appear a corrupt stain who have been long selling out this country's people.

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118662689#Comment_118662689

In a large open country like Australia I would think that would be the best thing.

Is the bush land uninhabitable due to high temperatures or too far away from the cities for people to reasonably live there? I'm wondering why a partly empty continent has a housing crisis.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118662899#Comment_118662899

There is no reason to inhabit a lot of Australia, with the lack of rainfall and anywhere to store it being more an impediment than the heat. The southern coastal fringe is where most settlement has ocurred as it tends to get more rainfall, is cooler and is nicer in terms of recreation opportunities. The housing crisis is down to too much immigration and probably not enough 'tradies'. Most of the issue is just Sydney and Melbourne and the universal great attractor problem of large cities and everyone wanting to live in them and as close as possible to the harbour, in Sydney's case. While I haven't checked, I doubt there's a problem in Perth.

LJ12345

what is the possibility of cohesion in society against these institutions that seek to control the most fundamental basic human need of a home the benefit of which can be paid off before retirement. Is it feasible to imagine a situation where tenants might come together en masse to force them out through non payment of rent... would Ireland with its pro tenant laws be better placed to push these institutions out of the market.

Homeowner or not it’s concerning for the future of society and the potential fall out from preventing people from ever achieving their home owning goals. If this is the start of the ‘great reset’ there is bound to be a backlash somewhere!

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663103#Comment_118663103

There are also EU property laws to adhere to. You can’t force out/disadvantage german/European pensioners who own these and just nationalise stuff below market rate. This would be the end of the EU. Or Ireland leave the EU (and goes back to potato farming 1848 style….)

only option is higher interest rates, bit that would obliterate the entire welfare state.

houseyhouse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118660417#Comment_118660417

I saw this too. Reminds me of the couple in the IT a few months ago that ‘couldn’t afford’ a house in a Dublin on a combined €150k salary. These types of articles make it seem like the whole housing crisis is really more of an entitlement crisis when in reality there are lots of people who are genuinely struggling despite making sacrifices and compromises.

Why are we not hearing about individuals/couples/families just above the social housing limits who can’t get housing assistance and also can’t build up a deposit because so much of their income goes to rent?

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118661336#Comment_118661336

Number of properties advertised on sale on Daft in Ireland

No of properties for sale in Dublin

No of properties for sale in Cork

handlemaster

There was a funny article this week in the indo. Couple want to live in a high cost part of Dublin bemoaning the fact they cant buy there. Thats life and will continue to be the case for everyone in a capitalist system. The say system thats paying his wages.

Caquas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642170#Comment_118642170

This is far better value than the Culanor house. Detached, 350 sq. m. , extensive private grounds, sea views.

But there is the world of difference between €1.1M. and this house because €1.45M will become €1.6M. to get that E1 BER rating up to A. No photos of the bathroom and ensuites so I assume they need serious upgrades.

Very few buyers can go much beyond €1M. because of Central Bank rules. So there is no value to be had under a Million and prices at that level are close to peak but if you can go seriously higher (>€2M.) you can get properties at about half their Celtic Tiger peak and much better value in terms of price per sq. metre.

Anyone with €1.7M. looking for a family home with privacy and garden space would so very well here. Plus, all the conveniences of Ballybrack Cross are less than a 10 minute walk away!

Sadly, the tennis court needs reseeding and the "Georgian" windows are naff - a deal breaker for me 😜

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663403#Comment_118663403

It does matter though. The whole system is interlinked. If the tech couple on €150k can’t afford to live in the traditionally expensive areas, they move down into the cheaper areas which pushes ‘normal’ people out of those houses.

David McWilliams has written extensively on this. The struggles of the high earners directly impacts the low earners. If you’re on €40k then you need the guy on €200k banging the drum that he can’t afford a 5 bed in Dalkey, because as soon as he starts to accept the 3 bed semi in Finglas as normal, well then the guy on €40k is truly f*kd

Gael23

When a sale falls through does it get offered to other bidders involved in the previous process or do you go back in the market all over again?

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118664165#Comment_118664165

Oh yes and in a socialist system everyone live in a wonderful properties in beautiful areas like 1980s east berlin lol

houseyhouse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118664904#Comment_118664904

I understand how it works. I grew up in a beautiful Georgian house is south county Dublin that I will likely never be able to afford. But there is a difference between not being able to buy the house that you would like in the location that you want and not being able to afford to buy a house full stop. I don’t think entitlement plays well. It doesn’t with me anyway. I have no sympathy for those people.

Did you read the article in the Indo? The guy said there were only ‘a handful’ of 3 bed houses available under 550k in Dublin on Daft. I checked. There are 750. If none of those are good enough for him, then that says as much about him as it does about the housing market.

Meanwhile there are plenty of people who find themselves in genuinely very difficult situations that rarely seem to be in the paper (at least the ones I read).

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118664374#Comment_118664374

Agree with you on almost everything except I don't think 150k would touch the sides to start a refurb and ber improvement!

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118665264#Comment_118665264

I do to be honest. By most yardsticks, €150k a year is a good number. He probably sacrificed a lot to get there. Many would consider him ‘rich’, demand his income taxes be higher etc.

Had a quick scan there of what 550k gets you in Dublin. Not much. Certainly not the house of a rich man.

Do I feel as sorry for him as the nurse on 40k who’ll never buy anything at all? Of course not. But still think they are both falling foul of very unfortunate timing. Any first time buyer right now is doing so at the worst timing in history through 0 fault of their own. I wouldn’t belittle anyones struggles no matter where on the spectrum they fall.

houseyhouse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118665587#Comment_118665587

We bought our first house in 2020 so I understand how hard it is.

But I still think that he came off entitled and that articles like that make the situation seem like a problem of high expectations. But if you disagree, that’s ok too!

Caquas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118665289#Comment_118665289

Yes, I reckon around €150K for BER upgrade and €100K for bathrooms. That why I said it would suit someone with €1.7M.