Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118688643#Comment_118688643

Yeah good point actually, now that you say it I remember some price reductions back in 2020. Hard to work out from the PPR as there are so many different types of houses down the Marina.

Weird thing is, it doesn't even look bad value these days...especially when you consider it against Durkans looking for €1.6m for the 240sqm new builds on Church Lane. But yes, they could have at least made a bit of effort making the house look nice to justify their €300k profit!

reds86

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118689187#Comment_118689187

Sorry I meant north east facing back garden.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118689272#Comment_118689272

I suspect that in the coming weeks and months, all mention of the state's reaction to Covid will disappear, only to be replaced by talk of the Russians and how they have caused this inflation. I agree that the state is likely to use money printing to address high prices, because the tried and tested way of dealing with high prices is to give everyone more money, right? Shure if we all were given a million euros, the housing crisis would be over...

I do have to wonder where this is going. The plan here seems to be to convert the majority of younger generations and those yet to be born into life-long renters to keep investors and the pension funds of the older generations and civil service afloat. Can that be sustained? No main stream political party calls this out, and those that do are those deemed "alt right". We don't even need to talk about the Left...

How did we fall so far to be in this situation? Were humans always like this, or is there something uniquely selfish and myopic about the post-World War Two generation, the "boomers" as they are called?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118687102#Comment_118687102

You'd think if we had a government that had housing as their number 1 priority every effort would be made to make sure such obstacles would be overcome.

Maybe their bogged down in the paperwork for 27,000 working visa applicants already in the system just like Irish linked Ukrainian citizens waiting on travel visas that every other EU country does not require.

Labour supply ignored

Free money left on the table

Land left idle and costing money in upkeep and security

City centres left to fall to wreck and ruin with falling debris killing pedestrians.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118688186#Comment_118688186

If your a FTB you could buy the new build and sell within 6 months if you dont like the house or the area, at least you will pocket the 30k FTB grant + any price increase (could be a decrease) minus the selling costs and then you can choose to rent or buy again after. Its a hard call I do not envy anyone buying or renting today. Just be wary of people on here giving advice. Do your own research all indicators that I see are pushing prices up but I am no expert and its hard to try and predict the unintended consequences of certain decisions being made or from certain events. I mean no one thought prices would go up during covid but no one could of predicted the record levels of savings built up over the last couple of years as people could not spend meaning people buying anything not just property had more firepower when it comes to purchasing. So anyone telling you on here that they have a beat on property prices are either guessing or has a vested interest. You need to look at the indicators for pushing prices up or down and weigh up your own unique situation. Best of luck let us know on here how you got on.

danfrancisco83

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118689969#Comment_118689969

Just a note on "at least you will pocket the 30k FTB grant", you can't sell before 5 years with HTB grant. I'm not sure how that actually plays out, maybe you just pay back the tax

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690011#Comment_118690011

Yeap good call just looked that up your spot on.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690011#Comment_118690011

I think it gets pro-rated. Sell after 1 year - repay 80% HTB, 2 years 60% etc.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118689785#Comment_118689785

Look the government are bad but you and others on here that are talking about housing being the number 1 priority will simply not be seen as the number 1 priority for a lot of other people living here, for example people who already own a home wont see housing as their number 1 priority. Now that may sound selfish but a person is not going to worry about something that is not affecting them. Anyways that is just an aside. Have you any link to the 27k workers coming in. I see that figure as what will be needed additionally for the retrofitting scheme but nothing on the workers migrating in here?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/new-generation-of-construction-workers-needed-for-housing-supply-1.4664403

Your also talking in riddles debris killing pedestrians is that the guy who got killed when a branch fell on him after the storm? and how does that tie into housing?

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118688361#Comment_118688361

these were simply sold way too cheap.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118646176#Comment_118646176

https://lisney.com/property/2-feldberg-upper-glenageary-road-glenageary-co-dublin/

they cut to 1025 (from 1100). Obviously there was no interest at that level.

bought for 850 ao adding 200k it might sell around there now.

Villa05

We have a government that at various stages claimed the following were there priorities

Best little country to do business

Housing

And lately combating inflation

Guess what - affordable housing is the silver bullet, so the question needs to be asked why government continually pursue policy that achieves the opposite from a position of oversupply an abundance of land, and reducing cost of Finance. There policies have reversed all those advantages in housing provision over a decade

I'd question your assertions that existing homeowners are not concerned about housing affordability given their inclination to have children and potential dependency for income on children in their retirement.

All claims submitted have been backed up by links on this thread in the past

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690350#Comment_118690350

If someone continually does one thing whilst saying another, what does that tell you?

I think that you are correct that many homeowners are starting to realise that ballooning prices are not a good thing when they have "children" in their mid 30s who cannot move out. However, there are many more who benefit from this or simply don't care. Regardless, the policies that created this disaster were cooked up by people who certainly do benefit from the current situation. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

My own opinion is the housing will continue to inflate until something outside of the power of the state causes this to change. I don't know what that could be, but one thing is very clear to me. The state and a sizable slice of the population want this to continue for as long as possible, and they are willing to sacrifice the futures of anyone who doesn't benefit to keep it going as long as possible. If there is anything that gives me hope it's that after the 2008 crash and massive money printing of the last two years, enough people may finally reliase that the state's ability to interfere in the economy has got to be reigned in.

Separation of Church and state was a good idea. Let's see if we eventually get the separation of economy and state.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118689687#Comment_118689687

Exactly.

* Whirrrrrrr * go the QE, magic money printers in the ECB.

Another article trotting out a narrative about the Ukranian crisis. The groupthink at the establishment in politics and the ECB has us already over the edge of a cliff and the question is how bad the fall will be as there is no way the State can unwind its economic and markets supports and be replaced by an economy which generates sufficient activity to replace the State. I really think it's just so convenient that COVID came along right when the whole thing was starting to unravel and at the exact same time that COVID is over we have a new "crisis" to justify the massive money supply increase. Groupthink is most certainly present with the establishment so embedded in State organs for so long, in Ireland and Europe such as France and Germany. But it seems we are entering a new phase with what has happened in the last German and Irish elections with France due to have elections this year.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/cliff-taylor-another-wave-of-economic-uncertainty-has-hit-1.4811364

Having just come through the unprecedented economic storm of the pandemic, another wave of uncertainty is now hitting.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690676#Comment_118690676

Is QE and permanent money printing the new way markets are supposed to work?

Soon they wont need a crisis and it'll just be the way it is. Constantly in a battle against inflation, and ever increasing house prices.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690676#Comment_118690676

As I recall, there was a lot of talk in 2019 of a coming economic correction. I think some states in Europe did actually go into mild recessions that year, but I can't find the source.

Anyways, the Faustian pact that was globalism really is running out, and the devil wants his due. If money is constantly printed, hyper-inflation will be the result, and if that happens, we'll yearn for the good old days of 2008.

growleaves

In the Commonwealth of Virginia:

https://theroanokestar.com/2022/02/24/virginias-inventory-of-homes-for-sale-plummets-to-all-time-low/

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690508#Comment_118690508

Wonder if those people realise the a massive correction could well coincide with their retirement and with generations to come saddled with debt and extortionate costs, who pays for their living and healthcare expenses

Why do you think Russia and China are flexing their muscle right now, they know the West has backed themselves into a corner. Don't interrupt your enemy when they are destroying themselves

Putin is a chess player and kgb agent, as well as a war monger everything is well calculated

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118691121#Comment_118691121

Unfortunately I think Russia and China together have the West by the balls with their military and economic power combined. Even with Ukraine, the EU can do diddly squat as we're too reliant on Russian gas. At the same time I think that's why nothing big will really happen with the Russians invading Ukraine as Ukraine is not in the EU to have strong allies there nor is it in NATO. It's just going to get what Russia wants to give it.

The net effect is that economically we are in an absolutely retched state and geopolitical tensions will show just how weak the collective EU economy is (due to misdirected QE towards assets instead of more sustainable and productive endeavours) when it comes to bargaining power and the harder the EU pushes the greater risk of strong pushback which could have devastating impacts on our economies and lead to the significant asset corrections that are being threatened.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690676#Comment_118690676

Funnily enough gas prices are down 25% in the last 3 months and nearly half the peak price in that period set on the 27th of Jan

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690904#Comment_118690904

There are two prongs to this catastrophic scenario;

1. With the magic money printers and ECB bond buying to date, if it were to stop today, would the ECB ever be repaid? No, absolutely not, as the sovereign debt numbers involved are far too large to even contemplate repayment to the ECB.

2. If the ECB were to unwind its bond buying/QE programme, where will the money come from to replace the ECB? There doesn't seem to be anything in the economy generating enough activity to replace the ECB bond buying which means that in order to sustain their valuations assets (incl. houses) would need to either have the ECB keeping the printers whirring or else have something else pushing cash into assets. But there is nothing else! So the only way this works is if the money supply keeps rising exponentially. Lane, Lagarde and others are just desperate to make it to retirement before the whole thing comes to a shuddering halt, clinging to their models and traditional views, fighting the last war in the hope that they won't get left with the blame for a decade of lost growth and opportunity. The post-08 crash approach has been like the hungover man who chooses the hair of the dog cure for his hangover instead of assessing why he ended up with a hangover and aims to avoid it happening again, but the hangover can only be delayed.

Villa05

https://play.acast.com/s/the-david-mcwilliams-podcast/214-are-the-central-banks-working-for-you-or-big-money

Not that they didn't know what they were doing

GoldFour4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118688186#Comment_118688186

Just on the topic of new builds holding their value - I think in the event of a correction they’ll suffer a bit more than other houses. They’re typically a bit in the outskirts of towns and many are being built and sold on the promise of a “new community” or “new townland” which may not be fully developed and hence will harm the value of the house especially considering people will not have HTB as an incentive to purchase.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118688186#Comment_118688186

As to new builds holding their value, depends on location really, but well insulated houses with no refurbishment required are desirable.

whatever you do, dont buy a house with that aspect, your back garden is going to be cold most of the year, you cannot change your aspect and its not something i would want to be stuck with. it makes a massive difference 6 months of the year.

ionapaul

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690676#Comment_118690676

What are you suggesting with your comments about the timing of COVID, and now the Ukraine crisis? That either/both are somehow manufactured to 'keep the show on the road', keep house prices high via loose monetary policies? If so, it really comes across as a wild conspiracy theory TBH. Maybe I'm misreading your post, if so I am sorry.

Whatever happened to that PropQueries poster? He loved a good link dump and trying to connect all sorts of political and economic news to the Irish property market.

L1011

PropQueries was threadbanned after multiple warnings to improve his posting style. We're also five months beyond the absolute latest date they claimed the market was going to implode now!

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118691868#Comment_118691868

Late 2019/ 2020 there were rumblings of a massive share price correction. That collapse started in Feb 2020 and the markets dropped round 30%.

CoVid arrival gave the excuse to restart the QE and ever since then the money going into the markets has been eye watering and share prices and assets are at price levels not seen since 1929. Jeremy Grantham has a few videos on YouTube well worth a watch if you've 45 mins to spare

https://youtu.be/JlEGU2ypr1Q

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118691868#Comment_118691868

I'm not implying they were fabricated events, my position is that the central bankers are looking for whatever excuse they can find to delay QT and raising interest rates. They'll, aided by a panicked herd of market participants, desperately look for any excuse to keep delaying. COVID was easing and inflation staying high so markets have been baking in rate rises and QT and it looked like COVID really would no longer be a justification to delay and now we are seeing already the narrative from the ECB that the Russian Ukranian skirmish could cause economic upset. If the Russian Ukranian skirmish deesecalates quickly, there will be a new reason jumped on. It is desperation and attempting to jab thumbs in dam holes for as long as possible and hope the water somehow doesn't break through.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118692481#Comment_118692481

The 2019 Fed repo bailout was potentially, though it is mysteriously hard to glean information, the stopgap to avoid total economic meltdown. The whole US financial system was potentially on the brink of meltdown. 2019 seems to have been the edge of the cliff.

For those unaware the 2019 repo bailout involved the Fed in the US effectively bailing out the huge Wall Street banks in the amount of $4.5tn in Q4 2019. Exactly what had happened and why such a bailout was needed is not public knowledge.

This is a phenomenal source on what happened;

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/01/2-7-billion-in-credit-default-swaps-blew-up-one-day-before-the-fed-launched-its-repo-loans-bailouts-in-2019/

The identities of the banks that receieved a bailout had been subject to a gag order;

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/01/theres-a-news-blackout-on-the-feds-naming-of-the-banks-that-got-its-emergency-repo-loans-some-journalists-appear-to-be-under-gag-orders/

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118692819#Comment_118692819

All that happened was liquidity dried up and the central bank provided liquidity to the market in the form of a secured overnight loan. There was no ‘bail out’ as it is standard practice as part of the central banks open market operations.

I think the BOE even have a video explaining how it works:

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/bank-of-england-market-operations-guide

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omo/html/index.en.html