Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713181#Comment_118713181

Well its all guess work what way prices will go but you can inform yourself using different mechanisms that will sway the way property prices will go.

For going up or down you have:

Interest rates rising.

Wages not rising as quickly as inflation or the price of housing.

the new retrofit scheme taking workers away from building new housing.

Rent prices are above what you pay for a mortgage.

A soon to be refugee crisis from Ukraine some reports have nearly 3/4s of a million people leaking over to Poland and other countries, these people will need housing. Also this will push up the price of oil and gas and other materials needed for housing

The changing of our time frame from 8 years to 4 months to process undocumented migrants in Ireland.

Lack of building workers

Costs of building sky rocketing.

The government both the ones in power and the new suitors for the throne Sinn Fein all have not got one documented theory as to how they solve the housing crisis. Politicians no 1 goal is power and making sure they are set for life with their pensions.

I am sure there are others but looking at the macro economics of how Ireland fits in to this world. There are more pressures from the above that will push prices up. Just my opinion.

Just for yourself it took nearly 5 years for the 08 crash to bring houses down to its lower point in 2013. Have you calculated what you would pay for in rent over the 5 years as apposed to a mortgage.?? You might be surprised by the numbers

J_1980

Holding cash (especially EUR) is becoming a bigger risk than owning property.

J_1980

Seen some Greek guy coming out trying to sponge more by suggesting a “European energy fund” to buy exploding commodities with even more debt. Lol what does he thi k will happen then? Inflation 20%?

at current levels I’d almost be more comfortable with Russian ruble cash than Euros.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/greece-propose-eu-energy-solidarity-fund-tackle-crisis-2022-02-27/

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713451#Comment_118713451

Cash is fast becoming something akin to meme-crypto coin. The state can print it out of thin air whenever it wants, so it may as well be worthless.

Honestly, I’m thinking of dumping what I have into gold, be it physical or EFT. Bullion gold is VAT free too. It may seem a little extreme, but I’m beginning to think that we’re coming to the end of the fiat currency experiment.  The printing of money has gone nuclear in the last two years, and if hyper-inflation is triggers, it’s game over.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713402#Comment_118713402

Thanks for your reply. Everyone is entitled to his/her opinion etc and take all views on board. Some houses are 100k overpriced, and thats not an exaggeration. We have been looking at a house in Galway, it on daft for 550k, been on daft since last October so pushing 6 months, highest bid on it so far is 480k. probably worth 450k. So its either a case people are holding fire for now of people simply cant afford it. If its the latter then if houses prices continue to go up, people simply will not be able to purchase them as they will not be able to afford it. Not amount of economics, supply, demand are relevant if people simply do not have the funds available to purchase. Wages might go up but they wont by that much. Companies are squeezed too, cost of living affects them as well and not just employees. I've read articles recently on whats driving house prices (whether its incorrect or not) at the moment is the bank of mam and dad and savings over the pandemic, neither of these 2 are sustainable and will be weeded out in the next 12 months. Its all well and good people saying that house pries are going to continue to rise because of x,y and z, but they will only rise to prices which people can afford to pay. If people can only borrow 3.5 times salary then anything above that is not even in the question. So if houses rise to an average of lets say €500k in price (just taking this as an example), a couple would need to be earning a combined salary of 120k with a deposit of 100k, not many people have either that deposit or that combined salary. Not everyone has the bank of mam and dad and alot of the time the asking price is not even reached. With the cost of living rising people will just be unable to afford to put every penny they have into buying a house.

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713515#Comment_118713515

some of the nonsense spouted on here is getting out of hand

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713515#Comment_118713515

That’s the main reason I don’t want to move. I’d have to sell first and then buy (chains don’t really exist here). Even 2-3 months of cash holding is too risky for me.

unless something dramatic happens I simply can’t see the ECB ever raising rates. Can’t even see them fully ending QE.

CorkRed93

grown men with brain rot thinking EUR is more like dogecoin. lads lay off the kool-aid.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713532#Comment_118713532

The reason I dont come here too often, cash going to evaporate soon, I've heard it all now....

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713543#Comment_118713543

Dogecoin cant be printed willy nilly

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713520#Comment_118713520

How do you deem certain houses to be over priced? What are you measuring against the only true price of something is the price that someone is willing to pay? If this property doesn't achieve the price in the the short term the people selling it will have the options of waiting, reducing the price or just taking it off the market.

Also your take on affordability is not really valid there are areas all over the globe that are not affordable for the average person, New York , Paris. London to name a few but in this day and age of local property markets being globalized it means there are more players and more importantly more rich players in the game than ever before. Ireland has a USP for property in that if the property matches a certain criteria it can be given to the government for up to 25 years with no maintenance for the owner and a Government backed ROI, now to me in the current stratosphere of money being printed hand over fist and the cash that was in your bank account is now worth less now than this time last year. Throw in the horrors unfolding in the Ukraine and a solid safe investment is where a lot of investors will be running too. My advise is to put an offer in for the house at a price your happy with and tell the EA to get back to you if it doesn't sell that way your base is covered for a property (you think is over priced) and you will get it at a price point your willing to pay.

I wish you good luck with your future but I would not be just counting on the bog standard Irish citizen being the only players in the Irish property market as you have foreign investors, REITS, vultures and the county councils also buying up property and these entities have very deep pockets.

Like 500k average property is a long way off (i know you were just picking an arbitrary number but its over 200k higher than the average house price currently as its 290k. ,maybe do the math again on 290 instead of 500?) . People will have to get their head around the fact that areas in Ireland like Dublin, Cork and Galway are very desirable places to live. You may have to buy something a little further out and then as your wages and savings go up and your mortgage goes down you may be able to afford something closer to where you want. Its been like this for the last 30 odd years.

enricoh

There is another thread on boards discussing the fact that the government is buying half of all new houses at the minute. Iirc a third of all rentals are subsidised by the state n that number is rising.

Prices ain't gonna fall as long as the government is pumping in the billions. I see coveney said we could take in over 20k Ukrainians so I can only see government spending increasing this year. I don't think it's in any way sustainable but prices ain't falling til government spending on housing does, they are only feeding the bubble imo.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713533#Comment_118713533

If the conflict in Ukraine sucks in other states, then we’re in trouble. Wars always cause spending to balloon, and if that happens, the printing presses will be turned up. I doubt that the ECB would raise rates, but then again, I don’t know.

Personally, I’m rather at a loss as to what to do.  I’ve tried to buy a house, but anything that would be suitable to me has gone far, far over the asking price, and moving to somewhere cheaper isn’t really viable as I have to care for my mother and elderly grandmother.  I currently have about 150k in cash, and I’m very concerned about inflation.  Bullion is the tempting option, and I kind of like the idea of having a “stash”, but the problem with it is that it can be difficult to liquidate, and if there’s some sort of implosion, it would be years before the value rose back up again.

It's a fine mess we’ve been landed with eh.

AlmightyCushion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713558#Comment_118713558

There is no hard cap on the amount of Dogecoin that can be created and 5 billion Dogecoines get created a year.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713660#Comment_118713660

Have you a link to the intake of Ukrainians? 20k , how many houses were we building this year I think I seen a figure of 20k as well. I know its not a 1 to 1 correlation I think someone put a figure of 2.5 being the average household size in Ireland. So thats 8k houses gone out of the 20k new builds. I know they wont be getting new houses but it will be 8k off the over all house supply and on myhome there is only a between 10 and 11k properties available for sale. As I pointed out a week or so ago with regards to the Ukraine the properties of unforeseen circumstances for housing in this county will square hit supply again

enricoh

It's on today's indo online, link is not coming up on the page for me- it's probably me computer skills realistically! 6k initial figure, 20k if a million refugees flee which is not unrealistic imo, think half that are gone already to poland-

“If you were to have an estimate of up to a million people crossing into the EU and Ireland’s proportion of that in terms of the population which is often the allocation key when it comes to financial allocations or whatever, it comes to 2pc and that’s 20,000 people to start with.”

wassie

We have 4 star hotels for those seeking asylum.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/holiday-inn-at-dublin-airport-shuts-after-seven-months-to-become-asylum-centre-1.4808471

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713769#Comment_118713769

I seen reports that other countries are receiving refugees as well with another 1/4 of million hitting Moldova, Romania and Hungary. So 3/4 of a million and the war only a week old.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713769#Comment_118713769

I don't think these Ukranians can afford our rents and we don't even have rentals for them; they will have to stay in repurposed hotels. Even if the State increased direct and indirect (i.e. via housing bodies) social housing acquisitions (because the State doesn't build) to help house the war-fleeing Ukranians, it will come at a cost to well-paid workers emigrating to Ireland (which IMO has already happened from the rental-demand-inflating policies to date) who desperately need to see supply increasing and rents decreasing in order to decide to move over which will feed into corporates stalling or slowing growth plans in our country which will in turn feed into corporate tax not increasing to match the ever increasing public expenditure. We are caught in this self-perpetuating housing cost increase cycle where the State is being forced to spend more on housing due to rising costs which in turn causes further increases in housing costs and thereby requiring more State spending on housing costs. It seems like FF and FG are hoping to keep the charade going until SF get into power so then SF will get blamed for the inevitable catastrophe.

Separately, on interest rate rises and inflation, a bizarre article in the IT today that the Ukranian Russian crisis would actually somehow delay interest rate increases. So even though inflation will go higher from the crisis, thereby requiring interest rates to increase even more urgently, this crisis-inflation would not need interest rates to increase. I'm not an expert but my view is that the central banks will have to make higher and sooner interest rate increases and as a result of the crisis, but I'm not a hedge fund boss (though perhaps that means I don't have a vested interest in low for long interest rates?).

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ukraine-war-likely-to-delay-interest-rate-rises-says-man-group-chief-1.4815198

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713817#Comment_118713817

Yeap we do but as I pointed out umpteen times our process will now only take 4 months to have asylum seekers go from that status to legal in Ireland down from 8 years. I would hazard a guess a lot of people who will come here out of the war in the Ukraine will look at Ireland as a safe place to live but also the welfare benefits are incredible.

Villa05

We have a relatively poor country holding back the largest and most experienced army in the world with a significantly under equipped small army and citizens with home made petrol bombs.

Given that we seem to be unable to build enough houses for our small population, these brave people will be a welcome edition to the gene pool.

Refugees! They are the bravest, strongest, courageous people to stand on this planet. Their leader is an example to every world leader

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118715126#Comment_118715126

Not the thread for it, but most males 18-60 are required to stay and fight in Ukraine as of a few days ago - wouldnt these demographics overwhelmingly be tradesmen we would want? No disrespect to women and children, but in the context of the housing crisis these refugees will not be some kind of boon to Irish house building. More than welcome to come for refuge, but worth pointing out the accommodation crisis will deepen.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118715164#Comment_118715164

govt will apparently look for volunteer homes to take ukranian refugees in im sure there will be a generous uptake from kind hearted irish people

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713829#Comment_118713829

10 year gov debt has dropped 40bps the past few days so it’s not just hedge fund managers predicting rates not rising

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713852#Comment_118713852

This is not accurate at all. Fake news

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118715612#Comment_118715612

Well I am only the messenger.. if you think its fake take it up with the Irish independent. I am not even going to debate it with you you sound like Donaldo Trump

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/we-will-not-be-found-wanting-ireland-could-accommodate-up-to-20000-ukrainian-refugees-says-coveney-41398328.html

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118713181#Comment_118713181

Well a lot of people have already been holding out for countless years and things like body clocks continue to tick. It is what you have to swallow to live in Dublin these days.

SmokyMo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118715164#Comment_118715164

Do you think women and children would want to remain here long if their other halfs, family members are at home? they would all go back at first opportunity.

L1011

Could everyone in the recent posts read the mod note in post 1 please, which has been there for years at this stage.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118715642#Comment_118715642

Your link has nothing to do with your claim that asylum seekers will be legal in 4 months. You are Donald Trump I'm afraid, I deal in facts.