Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118753180#Comment_118753180

The Kosovo war lasted approx 15 months and the majority of refugees returned home. It's their home.

combat14

Looks like the country is poorly prepared at present for the current war and host of consequences.. our housing, transport, food, defence, emergency/contingency and energy infrastructure are all an absolute shambles ... serious problems economically ahead... Ireland faces major economic risks from war, Ministers told

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ireland-faces-major-economic-risks-from-war-ministers-told-1.4821807

A wide-ranging confidential briefing for Ministers, which drew on information from every Government department, outlined the array of risks facing the country.

Threats to food production and consumer prices are severe, it warned.

Villa05

Are the peat burning power stations beyond being plugged back into the grid

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118755183#Comment_118755183

How much that 40-50 billion printed during the last few year could have helped out here. I'm utterly against money printing, but there's going to be funny-money printed, it should at least be used to fund infrastructure. Instead, it went right into asset bubbles.

But look, this is what happens when those granted power face no consequences for failure. The worst that could happen to a senior civil servant guilty of malfeasance is an early retirement. Until that changes, Ireland will continue to stumble from one crisis to another, though I have a feeling that we're heading towards something that will leave fare more bruises than previous encounters.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118755425#Comment_118755425

money creation can be beneficial to society, if its used correctly, but its been primarily being used to inflate asset prices such as property. we need a continual supply of new money via debt creation, but we must use it for productive means, including creating new assets such as new properties, its also important to remember, the majority of money creation is still occurring in the private domain, in private sector financial institutions, but now the central banks have also gotten in on the act, and are using their money creation systems, i.e. qe, to also inflate asset prices, this is catastrophically failing!

J_1980

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0308/1285193-cost-of-building-two-bed-apartment-jumps-14-since-2020/

construcion costs up 14%. Probably up another 5% this month alone…

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118755425#Comment_118755425

Exactly and this is why, when people say, "other countries have housing crises, it's not just Ireland", it is an argument ignorant of the fact that other countries have asset bubbles as well caused by the same thing. This also applies to mean that trouble elsewhere will also mean trouble in Ireland.

At the same time, if house prices and rents dropped 30/40% (losing half the gains in this bubble), don't be fooled into thinking that the individuals in Ireland are the ones who will suffer. In fact, we will find that actually this has not put many if any in negative equity (due to LTV and LTI limits) and renters will be happy to see the rental market bubble deflate. The biggest losers will be the institutional investors this time around (unless the government decides to funnel more borrowed cash into their pockets to soften their landing).

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118755524#Comment_118755524

Hmm given that the people who hold the reigns of power here (along with most of the older generations) know that their pensions are coming from funds, I think it's safe to say that they will fight to the end to protect them, regardless of the costs.

Villa05

The cost of building a 2bed apartment is 219k and that is up 27k from 2020. I think that underlines the complete and utter failure of the state to address housing when the country was flush with extra corporation taxes, rising tax income in all other areas, stable material prices, and 0 cost money.

It further underlines how our system adds additional costs far in excess of the build cost

Housing has been made into a gravy train. Every politician in the country should hang their head in shame, quit and forego their pensions for the mess they have made of the state.

If Putin decides to invade us, he will not need to install a puppet regime, it comes pre packaged

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118755559#Comment_118755559

The politicians are merely the tip of the iceberg. There are legions of civil servants who played a part in this mess, and they don't even have to face the public.

Honestly, if I were in power, I would forego my pension, resign and then publish a letter of apology to the Irish people. There wouldn't be much of a choice in it; my own conscience would eat me alive if I didn't.

MacronvFrugals

Its all well and good giving ABP ultimate decision on new developments but can already see the new slums of the future with zero services that nobody wants to live in, is the hypothesis 'build it and the services will come?'

She’s run Magic Moments from Quadrant House on Chapelizod Road since 2014, but last June, she got a one-year notice period from her landlord for her creche to close to make way for a development of 131 homes.

The application, which is at a pre-planning stage, hasn’t so far proposed a replacement creche, and parents in the area say that there are already limited options.

Parents will have to drive from the already traffic-choked Chapelizod to find childcare, says Sophie Nicoullaud, an independent councillor.

The An Bord Pleanála inspector’s report on the planning application for the apartment blocks that would replace Magic Moments said that more clarification on the provision of childcare is needed, recognising that the creche will be closed.

“A replacement creche facility is not proposed and the existing facility has been included within the baseline data presented,” it says, suggesting that there was an analysis done that counted the Magic Moments creche within neighbourhood provision.

An Bord Pleanála did not respond to queries sent Monday asking for clarity on that.

In Chapelizod, a Creche Faces Closure – to Make Way for New Housing

https://dublininquirer.com/2022/03/09/in-chapelizod-a-creche-faces-closure-to-make-way-for-new-housing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118755425#Comment_118755425

It sure does not look good. Is there any in this country actually fit for purpose? Housing, Healthcare, Public Transport to name a few things are all lagging considerably, with zero signs of them improving anytime soon.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118755457#Comment_118755457

more and more talk of looming recession on the cards the longer this war in ukraine goes on the prices of energy and more keep rising...

deisel now 2.15 in anticipation of cut to excise duty .. most people will start cutting back their spending on everything else at these prices .....serious recession on the way...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118755524#Comment_118755524

Interesting thoughts, but will the rent bubble / property bubble deflate anytime soon?

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118756080#Comment_118756080

Does any country really get this right? My own opinion is that the state has far, far too much power and influence. I would rather have a small state with limited services and low taxes. The states simply aren't sustainable in the long term, and we need to think of the future generations. What we have instead is a system where the government is involved in every aspect of life. I don't especially like that, and I would rather govern my own life. However, I've more than once been told that I'm a radicle heh.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118756098#Comment_118756098

"Gooooood. Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen"

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118756080#Comment_118756080

Is our healthcare, public transport, education and excellent housing system not the reason for house prices have soared the last 7/8 years? People have been saying that the fundamentals are solid so presumably they are referring to all aspects of Irish life that have improved from the excellent investments made the last decade.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118756106#Comment_118756106

People who hate doomsayers like to dismiss them by saying "Being early is the same as being wrong". But that doesn't mean that there is no credibility to what is being flagged as a risk factor. I mean, people were saying things about our housing market years before 2008.

And I know people say that "well if you listened to people in 04/05/06 etc" you'd be in a worse position today, but my premise is that the assumptions they use to argue that are not without risks, ie that today is more stable and not a bubble. The main contention I have is that you take away the State and its squandering of our cheap and easy to access borrowing and its minority-favouring property market policies and the whole thing falls apart. In effect, that our property market "recovery" post-08 is just as much of a sham as it was in the build up to 08 and this will be found out when it turns out that actually it is not sustainable for the State to redirect so much cash into propping up housing costs while other aspects of the economy are destitute (infrastructure, education, energy and food security).

Biggest risk factors to revealing that the property market emporer has no clothes;

1. Political - loopy lefties get in to power, referendum on united Ireland passes, EU membership questioned etc.

2. Economic - inflation continues to soar, government has to redirect precious cash away from property and into other areas; interest rates rise more than 1/2% in the next 1-2 year, government cannot borrow at zero percent rates anymore except for investing in energy, defence, food etc.

3. Demand - wfh, MNC growth plans change, corporate tax impact, cost of living, housing shortage etc all reduce well paid workers coming to Ireland and it is obvious that Ukranian refugees, students and low paid Brazilians won't be the ones to sustain our current housing costs let alone further increases.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118756106#Comment_118756106

Good question

The system as it stands is to maintain high rents and asset prices, however that system has been pushed to the limits by Governments, Central banks and financial industry plus various vested interests and I think its close to collapse

Villa05

Even now, the State is putting demand side policies for energy costs it needs to be rationed immediately

Compulsory wfh where its requested by employee. Park and ride facilities at population centres. Army and every bus in the country fully utilised to get people to work that need to be there.

This is not just about costs and supply, it's just as much about where the money is going.

If it's funding the bombing of schools hospitals and children. We should all be on bycicles

And if wind turbines and solar farms are an inconvenience to your views from your home, try the barrel of a tank. Planning objections to these should be reviewed

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118756106#Comment_118756106

It cant.

What we have now is ordinary tax payers having their own tax dollars used to bid against them. Driving up the price of houses for them if they ever do get another chance to buy. Also their tax dollars being used to prop up rents too, with them being used to pay for expensive leases on properties that the tax payer will never get a sniff of.

So there you have it. Ordinary people not being abale to afford to buy or rent, but actually they are buying and renting - for other people who arent contributing.

What a fcuked up situation. The only way out is to get out of this tax system by either just quitting and giving up or leave the country to somewhere where you arent getting taxed to death and getting nothing for it.

danfrancisco83

I'm guessing the catch here, is that whoever buys this house will have a battle on their hands getting the property back from the tenants. Looks like a nice estate, 3 bed semi-d in Dublin, for just over 200k? https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-17-ashfield-way-balbriggan-co-dublin/3726388

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118757357#Comment_118757357

I know 2 different people going on 4 years now trying to get no paying tenants out. So it could be some battle.

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118757357#Comment_118757357

I don't think any bank will give a mortgage on a property with in situ tenants like that, has to be a cash buyer, unusual it isn't on BidX1 and the like.

cubatahavana

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/75_johnstown_road_dun_laoghaire_co_dublin_ireland-462918/

Differences between 2020 and 2022.

Number 75 sold in 2020 for 465

Number 77 sold in 2022 for 670

Amadan Dubh

200 brand new homes at the edge of Bray to be bought up for social housing.

What an absolute con the whole housing market is for working people. I have a job interview for a transfer within my company to another European country later this week; the only way to avoid this farce is to leave the country at this stage.

"Demand is solid" = demand is being manipulated to remain artificially high.

"This time it's different" = individuals aren't over leveraged to the same extent but the taxpayer will still be on the hook for the inevitable bust.

https://m.independent.ie/regionals/wicklow/news/200-homes-in-bray-to-be-sold-to-provide-social-housing-41425747.html

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758558#Comment_118758558

if new job in Luxembourg make sure you get free accommodation with the job…if you think things are bad here….lux can be an eye opener. Most of the employees commute in from other countries as prices are so crazy.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758558#Comment_118758558

I'm afraid all the European countries are the same governed by the ECB that have got inflation so wrong its actually frightening. Ireland is a special case though a real special case in how to sell its honest decent hard working people out. Ireland, oppressed by the English, got Independency and became oppressed by the Catholic church, then became oppressed by the troika now we are oppressed by the Multinationals and the Investment firms that control our government that sold us out.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758558#Comment_118758558

Theres another 200 apartments that we have all bought here. Good on us for bidding against ourselves and leaving most of us stuck renting.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758653#Comment_118758653

This is what some people are looking for the government to do….have social housing and stop paying HAP….

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118758699#Comment_118758699

The way i see it is the tax payer is being frozen out of the market while being asked to pay for housing for those who dont pay tax.

The more you earn the worse off you are in this country. And its getting worse all the time.