Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118846620#Comment_118846620

exactly hard to build or buy with rampant inflation the way it is.. already kbc and boi are reporting dropping consumer sentiment for march .. we havent seen anything yet as consumers start to factor in the 2000 euro annual hit to disposable income

MacronvFrugals

Another big BTR development on the way, this time for the former Glass Bottle site

https://twitter.com/BuildingIndex/status/1508448137362481152?s=20&t=2_zLCrPD6tcpc4w592Ne-Q

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118847406#Comment_118847406

Long overdue but also no where near what was planned for the site. I got the feeling this would be purposely drip fed into the market when the deal had been agreed and it looks like this will be the case. The unpaid, unelected but powerful civil servants in the Dept of housing of course the main culprits here, doing their institutional friends a big favour.

At the same time, surely this land is going to be flooded in the next 15 years onwards on a regular basis. Looking at projected flood maps, it's guaranteed to have issues with rising sea levels.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118846211#Comment_118846211

Availability trending up since Christmas.

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118847473#Comment_118847473

It's just the first phase of the plan, there are a lot more units planned.

It's a joke that it has taken this long so far.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118847477#Comment_118847477

That’s just the seasonality.

now is the prime listing seasons (to move in the summer for new school year) and not much coming on.

MacronvFrugals

Some of the age breakdowns for the latest Red C/SBP poll yesterday

Age 18 to 34 - SF: 32% --- FF: 17% --- FG: 12% --- GP: 10% ---SD: 9%

Age 35 to 54 - SF: 42% --- FG: 14% --- FF: 12% --- GP: 4% ---SD: 4%

Age 55+ ------ FG: 28% --- SF: 25% --- FF: 19% --- LP: 6% --- GP: 4%

Amadan Dubh

It's interesting to note that the 18-34 year olds are as into SF as the over 55s but that is because the 18-34 year olds are more in favour of the loopier lefties. 18-54 years of age is over half the electorate, this is going to have huge ramifications politically in less than 3 years when we see who SF end up in bed with. All of us have only ever known FF or FG in power in some form so it will be a huge change. Issues like a United Ireland referendum will become real political topics, by way of example, as well as our economic model of being about attracting tax neutralising MNCs who employ well-paid services sector workers, which would not really be the demographic SF would typically represent.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118847634#Comment_118847634

Not typically, but as more and more of those "well-paid services sector workers" can not afford homes either the resentment is building and so is SF voter base.

Housing is the single biggest issue and it shows.

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118847599#Comment_118847599

any 18-35 year old voting for FG needs their heads tested.

Cannot believe that amount of 35-54 will vote Sinn Fein.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118847990#Comment_118847990

The youngers just have more votes split off to more social policy led parties like SD and Greens, which has always been the way with the youth.

As you get older its all about money, housing, health, taxes. All things that current 2 incumbents have totally screwed up throughout successive governments. 35-54 are old enough to remember it.

55+ are old enough to have profited off it!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118848008#Comment_118848008

They are old enough to remember exactly where Sinn Fein come from also, though. That's why I'm surprised

ElektroToad

It's not that want anyone wants to vote Sinn Fein. It's more the fact that a vote for FF or FG isn't worth a **** for anyone under 40 working and saving hard for their own house for past 10-12 years. Desperate times calls for desperate measures.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118848010#Comment_118848010

Who cares?

Genuinely, who cares about that? Its another country/jurisdiction, and has no real bearing on us in the south.

People care about the cost of housing, taxes, healthcare, fuel. Things that directly impact their livelihood. Allusions to the troubles and paramilitary action 30 years ago do not impact people's day to day.

For the record I do not thing SF will fix housing, but its crystal clear that FF and FG will not as they have had ample time in power to try and have made things much worse.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118848029#Comment_118848029

Plenty of people care. I'm not sure what another country means?

The IRA had a lot of bearing on us in the South. Plenty remember, plenty care. I'm just surprised by the amount that don't.

CorkRed93

i think you'll find, any 30 something couple stuck renting, with 2 good jobs dont give an toss about where sinn fein came from and what they did a lifetime ago. they want someone to at least pretend like they'll tackle the biggest issue in the state from the minute they get into government.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118847659#Comment_118847659

Anyone that is hoping to buy a house will be totally screwed if SF get into government as all resources will be redirected away from private builds and into social housing meaning a small supply of properties for FTB’s. On top of that they will see increases in taxes to pay for all the social housing. So less supply and less disposable income.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118847990#Comment_118847990

Puts to bed the argument that existing homeowners want to see higher house prices. It would appear that most in the country now see that high house prices are bad for them and the economy

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118848077#Comment_118848077

How will SF provide cheaper housing?

They will increase the supply of social housing and at the same time reduce the no of private house built.

Lower supply = higher prices

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118848077#Comment_118848077

I genuinely have no idea how you have arrived at this conclusion from those figures. Can you show your working out?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118847634#Comment_118847634

SF LP & SD next government? Would LP get a significant Bacik bounce and take some of the SF vote. Would be worrying if SF were the strongest party. Maybe SD and LP merge to maximise tds

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118848291#Comment_118848291

This will literally be the end, FF/FG have spun and spun and couldn't get it done I don't have any truck with people being unhappy with them. But the parties your talking about have policies where the costs are going to cost the average tax payer they are going to be on the hook to pay so much more for our social welfare trap that a large % of those working will feel they are working so that those who earn less or don't work at all are allowed to stand on their shoulders to access housing and other benefits. This cannot end well the math will prove this and it might be a self fulfilling prophecy that SF will bring in a recession that so many on here are looking for but it will only be for those who are already paying through the nose currently and paying for everything

Villa05

Labour Party brought us free third level education you should see the difference that made with my brothers and sisters

2 in education before it came in

2 in education after it came in

The difference in there lives are quite stark when it comes to jobs salary and tax revenue. Night and day

Relax brah

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118839202#Comment_118839202

Further update on this:

1. Open viewing on Saturday was first showing of property
2. Opening offer came in this morning €40k over asking price (opening bid)
3. EA was fairly candid and explained to me that it was an elderly couple downsizing

It’s insanity. How can I compete with that?

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118848876#Comment_118848876

Simply put, you don't. I'm in the same position. People like us are the collateral damage of keeping the state's slumlord elite in pay and pensions.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118848339#Comment_118848339

FG and FF still have plenty of support. It may seem like the out of control market is a huge problem, but to someone who is sitting in a mortgage-free house that is worth multiple times what they paid for it, it's not a problem at all. If a problem doesn't affect someone directly, it's not really their problem; that's just how humans are. Thus, many will still still vote for the candid neo-liberals in FG and FF. Everyone else will vote for the useful idiot lefties in the other parties.

Anyways, what will really change? The civil service largely runs the country, and those people are not elected. There is no housing crisis to these people because this is a direct result of policies that they put in place; this is what they want, and they will not give it up without a fight. The only thing that will "fix" the shortage of housing is some global even that kills demand. Then, and only then, will prices fall. What could do that? I don't know.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118848095#Comment_118848095

SF will provide cheaper housing when all the MNCs stop growing their employee headcount here and the older generations panic sell their houses.

But SF have plans to redivert that unlimited ECB cash towards State built social housing which will, if implemented, take a lot of social housing tenants out of the private market which is causing at least to some extent the lack of affordability in the market by quenching supply and putting a floor under rents.

Timing belt

The cheap cash is gone….rates have already risen on the back of ECB announcements…SF will need increase taxes to pay for it…whatever they give with one hand they will takeaway more on the other hand with increases in tax unless you are on a low wage and then you will get cheap accommodation.

if the MNC’s are impacted then it won’t just be immigrants impacted it will also be Irish people and an increase in social spending requirements which will also equal higher tax.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118849503#Comment_118849503

It will probably be gone by the next election, but if you can currently get 10 year money for just over 1% and inflation expected to be over 8%. The current real rate is - 7%.

We know current policy is to source property from the private market at max price so this opportunity that has been around for years has been squandered.