Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118861243#Comment_118861243

Talk of emergency measures is just that, talk. They'd be challenged before the Supreme Court and ruled unconstitutional.

Special measures to support the economy during Covid-19 was one thing, but the Government would have a hard time convincing the Supreme Court that it is necessary to essentially remove planning laws entirely due to a war in a distant country on a far flung corner of Europe. There is precedent in expanding direct provision to support refugees which the Supreme Court would immediately point to.

The refugees will be housed in direct provision or temporary accommodation. That is what is going to happen. The construction industry can barely deliver on the existing housing targets. We aren't going to start churning out tens of thousands of additional units. In fact, I suspect that the profound issues with sourcing building materials will actually lead to a contraction in supply. In the medium to long term housing will be delivered to the refugees who remain in the country and are granted residency through our existing planning laws and procedures.

Amadan Dubh

Time to start stock piling the non-perishables.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-31/putin-says-gas-exports-to-be-halted-if-ruble-payments-not-made?srnd=premium-europe

houseyhouse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860678#Comment_118860678

I spoke to an agent about selling an apartment we used to live in but now let out and he said the market reminds him very much of that with all the pent up Covid savings pushing up prices.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118861584#Comment_118861584

It's a game of poker... Russia need the cash from selling oil/gas..... If Europe refuses to pay then that is a good thing as it will cripple Russia and they will be forced to accept USD/EUR...

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118861615#Comment_118861615

Europe can't afford to let them turn off the gas. If they did follow through, we would also be sunk with, quote frankly, socially and economically devastating consequences. This stand off really needs to end.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118861615#Comment_118861615

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118861740#Comment_118861740

If they turn it off, German manufacturing is screwed. German chemical manufacturers need gas not just electricity, and if they must shut down it will cause supply chain issues for all kinds of engineering and vehicle manufacturers and will be felt all over. Spot prices of gas will skyrocket also, which we will surely feel here.

And I dread to think about next winter how people will heat themselves in the east.

If ever there was an event to cause a major recession EU being cut from russian gas is one. It will probably push building materials up though, so house prices will still go up!

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118861779#Comment_118861779

The markets don’t think it will happen. Gas hasn’t jumped through the roof today

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118861779#Comment_118861779

I will supply good west of Ireland black turf to the East, that should heat them.

The turf mem will become the new Irish oligarchs.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118862206#Comment_118862206

Are there many men around today that would survive a few days in the bog cutting turf by hand 😁

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118862370#Comment_118862370

If this recession comes and I'm back on the dole I'll have plenty of time for turf and cash in hand. You have to be a good thick ignorant man for turf and I have that in abundance. All joking aside I do think there will be alot more people getting plots of bog cut that have back boilers as opposed to oil and gas. 400 euro for a load of turf that would last the winter alot better value that 1.5 a litre for heating oil at the minute.

Villa05

The finest cup of tea, and a sneaky bottle of porter is after a long day in the bog with the sun setting over vews to die for

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118862446#Comment_118862446

If the view is another 50 hoppers for footing in front of you then yes it is a view that would kill you.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118862469#Comment_118862469

Using a hopper is being soft…Real men use a sleàn 😏

I don’t think it will come to that as oil is down 5% today so market isn’t scared of Russian black mail.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-putin-demands-payment-in-roubles-for-russian-gas-supplies-or-contracts-will-be-halted-12578915

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118861779#Comment_118861779

thats if there is not a massive recession first when european businesses en-masse close due to lack of fuel....

Mr Hindley

In a change of topic from the macro-economics and WWIII :( - I asked my mortgage broker today on his view on the market, and he said that while new supply is finally starting to come online and ease the pressure a little, that if I wanted a property that would hold its value, to consider a high-end apartment rather than a house. That way, I'd be less likely to be competing with FTBs, and investors.

Interested in other peoples' thoughts? I'm fairly flexible about what kind of property I go for - the way the market is now, my priority is not to find my forever home, but to get somewhere reasonably quickly and start paying off my own mortgage rather than someone else's, and be insulated from further skyrocketing prices for the next few years.

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118863109#Comment_118863109

I'd say get a new mortgage broker!

High end apts will be the first thing to drop in any economic crash, he's saying you should buy one because nobody wants them now, how do you think it will hold its value during bad economic times?

A low end apt would sound like your best bet to get out of the rent trap if you have no major housing criteria at the moment.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118861740#Comment_118861740

It's might seem a Mexican standoff. However not only do Russia need the revenue it also cannot store the gas elsewhere. It will literally have to burn it off. Imaging burning off a half a billion a day.

If sanctions are hurting Russia right now give it a few weeks and Putin will be burning up his foreign reserves. You are looking at the largest economic block in the world. It's ability to adapt is huge.

Will it hurt. Yes but it will hurt Russia a lot more. If he turns it off will it ever matter if he turns it back on again.?

Sierra Oscar

Interesting segment on Prime Time tonight on the crisis engulfing the construction sector at the minute as a result of material shortages and costs inflation. Large number of developers deciding to finish out current phases under construction in housing estates and deferring all future phases indefinitely. Buckle up, serious supply shock incoming it would seem.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118863109#Comment_118863109

Nearly all apartments are being bought by investors…I would get a new broker with that advice

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118863109#Comment_118863109

Interested in other peoples' thoughts?

Stick with your mortgage broker arranging your loan and not financial guidance.

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118863454#Comment_118863454

There are also a lot of big schemes still pushing ahead. Developers that have the means are simply procuring a lot of packages early in advance of appointing a builder to help manage cost. Essentially they are taking on a larger share of the project risk that otherwise would normally be passed on to the builder.

I wouldnt give too much credence to that Prime Time report - a lot of 'ifs' and 'maybes'. Impacts are being felt now, but we are not closing shop on building anytime soon especially while the returns on investment are there.

The single biggest constraint we have is getting workers, both trades and professionals. And that is harder to deal with because we simply cannot attract workers here on a large scale as they have no where to live.

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118863660#Comment_118863660

I certainly wouldn't like to suggest all developers are deferring projects, far from it. All the same I am aware of two large developments myself that are deferring phases, both in very different areas. It isn't due to a lack of demand either, one development only sold out its current phase within a couple of hours in February. There will inevitably be some impact on supply.

CIF pushing hard for the increased cost of materials to be allowed to be added on to the agreed sale price upon completion. Wouldn't exactly lead to a comfortable environment for would-be purchasers.

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118859479#Comment_118859479

But this would be a short run cycle. Homeowners ultimately will sell at an average of once in every 20 years. Periods where people put of selling are not unusual and usually correspond to an economic shock. Like the one which covid gave us. But we will eventually go back to the trend rate of the expected existing house sale turnover.

Prices are rising because of lack of supply but with new builds edging up. More existing stock to come on market. Rising interest rates cycle to come and a fall in real wages (inflation running higher than wage inflation) I would think the rises will end later this year.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118864067#Comment_118864067

I wouldn't count on rises ending this year..... At the start of the year I thought house prices growth would average around 5% this year.... I am now thinking it will go higher and be closer to 10% because wage increases are becoming more common. It will make no difference if inflation is running higher than wage inflation or if interest rates increase because it is not the repayment that people are struggling with it... they are already able to prove they can afford this by paying rent every month.... It is the ability to borrow because of the LTI limit.... with Wages increasing it means more can be borrowed which equals upward pressure on housing.

You would think that more stock would hit the market with higher prices but it won't because people put off selling when they are uncertain.... normally this is when they are uncertain about future job prospects but at the moment it is because they are uncertain that if they sell they will be able to find alternative accommodation... Even if they were to sell and rent for a year to find a place... they will struggle to find somewhere to rent not to mention find accommodation to buy. With inflation running high we will see projects being mothballed until their is more certainty about building costs which will mean less supply 1-2 years down the road.

JimmyVik

I think the headlines at the end of next year will be "Housing crisis is over - Rate of price rises is going down. Its only 9% per year now."

Not a chance in hell of this country ever catching up with the increase in supply needed even to stand still.

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118865019#Comment_118865019

genuine q for people will anywhere actually catch up with demand? seems like all developed countries going through the same housing woes. if people cant snap them up it'll be funds and they'll have people renting until they die, thats assuming they can afford the rent til they cake it.

Cal4567

I don't think we will ever catch up with demand. Just look at globalization and how that's developed over the last 20 years. Add in emergencies such as Ukraine and the knock on effects that brings. We are one of the most underdeveloped countries across Europe and if there's a need or desire for people to come here, then they will continue to do.

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118864092#Comment_118864092

You can say the same argument why house building won't go down. It is not the cost of construction but availability of builders that is holding it back. Currently only halve of new build planning permission are being build due to lack of bulders. If one developer decides not to build another will snap up that builder for thier project. Builders are out the door for work. Anyway sale prices are rising faster than cost build in many urban locations so makes no sence why developers would not construct. House prices for a 3bed house or apartment in Dublin has probably gone up more than the cost to build since covid so don't see why new builds slowing at all. It will keep edging up towards 30k over next decade which should be well enough for demand.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118865618#Comment_118865618

Costs of materials, land and most of all finance for builds are all rising. Not only do we need more labour, but we need to do something to address rises in materials, ridiculous land prices (driven by speculators and hoarding) and the funding model for construction in this country.

Construction could very well slow down in spite of all the demand due to the above factors making it less and less viable

Taylor365

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118865124#Comment_118865124

You're wrong.

They'll have them empty until they get rented. 1 year, 5 years, 10? Who cares.

He who controls the supply, reaps the reward.