Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118888611#Comment_118888611

So your advocating the government undertakes secretive discrimination and creating a system that is open to bribery.

Social housing needs to cater for everyone even if they have a bad credit rating, do not have a bank account or work in the gig economy where it wouldn’t be possible to deduct at source. If such processes existed the people not paying rent would take the government to cleaners with discrimination proceedings and still get away without paying.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118888771#Comment_118888771

I'd just leave if you can and not play the game anymore. You are being fleeced for your tax money and utilised as a tool to prop up the housing market via the high rents that have been manufactured for you to pay.

On my side, it looks like it's good news on the job front, perhaps another week or so to get official confirmation. We're hoping we will be leaving this basket case by the end of the year and not playing the game anymore; to say I'd be relieved is an understatement as it is like the titanic or a slow motion car crash that's happening in Ireland. I no longer really care what happens to the property market here but it is clear that it is being manipulated by vested interests in a manner which leads me to think that economically we will be hit quite hard if the MNC gravy train stalls or reverses, given the staggering public expenditure which is just going to waste rather than being invested. And I don't want to be here when SF get into power, as much as I don't think much of FF/FG.

Villa05

There are issues at social housing levels and affordable housing levels, IMO the issues are greater at the point where working people can't afford rents as they have additional costs of working and most likely commute further. Most would have no issue with deduction from source when rent is more affordable and potentially a shorter commute

State housing can't cater for everyone straight away, breed a culture of compliance that sets the standard which quickly changes behaviour and delivers significant cost savings to the recepient. Success breeds sucess

We don't want to make things easier for the drug dealers and there hench(wo) men, much better to make it easier for the folk that work and play by the rules.

I'm sure there are exceptions that can be done for the people you cite, the main objective would be to minimise troublesome candidates that aid in ghettoising estates.

If people who benefit from a scheme and fail to contribute there reduced contributions, we need measures that counteract it, same with private rent and mortgages. No such measures = failed state

keoclassic

Ya, but the problem is that its not getting better for the working, its getting worse!! We have shouldered enough for the country while the divide between the classes gets bigger and bigger. I think your right amadán dubh, but maybe they should stop building for the social housing and start building for us, the workers! Let the lads who need social housing emigrate instead like some of us have done in the past if work was tight.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118889296#Comment_118889296

The troublesome candidates such as dealers and their henchmen wouldn’t have any issues with any of your suggestions. They could easily have income deducted at source all it takes is to be put on the books of the gym, hairdressers, nail bar or garage that they use to wash their cash.

what is needed is a more fair an equatable system that is not just available to a selected segment of society.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118889530#Comment_118889530

What I propose would be open to everyone, many will choose not to as social/affordable rents are determined by household income.

Would it be fair to say that the working poor are the ones most disadvantaged by the current market and a scheme that focused on them would be a step towards the fairness you speak of

mcsean2163

Hi Datadude,

Establishing costs before bid. Bit of a shock and definitely limited in what we can bid as a consequence.... Mortgage broker has been a total nightmare querying lots of purchases etc. and expecting multiple surveys. Hopefully not a load of money down the drain.

mcsean2163

House is over 100 years old with thick walls. To be honest, I was told that's the price and would need to get a few builders to tender, so not like trying to pull the wool over my eyes or anything, really helpful but was also shown precovid price which was lower.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118890934#Comment_118890934

It’s the squeezed low to middle earners who don’t earn enough to buy and who earn to much to qualify for help. Some of these individuals will have good jobs and would be in a position to pay a mortgage rather than rent but are unable to do so because they can’t save while paying rent at the same time and are locked out of the housing market as a result.

Providing a housing model whereby they would be able to save would make a big difference for younger generations so they could buy in the future but there is a large number of people that will be older that could be self sufficient and pay a mortgage that also need to be catered for now or accept that come retirement will need state support to pay rent.

Regardless of whether the model is to rent or to buy it all depends on the ability to build new housing and we all know that regardless of what housing model we are constrained by the no of builders.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118891149#Comment_118891149

Best of luck if you do decide to proceed. Buying a walk in house was awkward enough for us, so I don’t envy the task you have ahead.

Have heard similar stories from friends and family getting quotes from small extensions to full builds and it’s always - “two years ago it would only have cost you…”. Tough to hear.

I do wonder with the Fed rate action and rapid shrinking of the balance sheet whether we might see a quick reversal of the madness of the past two years. Time will tell!

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118891761#Comment_118891761

Do you really think that former hedge fund manager JayPowell is serious about hiking rates and killing the golden goose of endless monetary inflation?

The federal government will hardly be able to run the current deficits and debt levels with 4% long term rates. Unless they actually start cutting expenditure and the deficits, I wouldn’t trust anything they SAY.

and I can only laugh about all the people who want to emigrate…. Going to Australia, NZ, Dubai, Canada, US, UK and then complaining that ireland is “too neoliberal” and “rightwing” and pushing for left ideas. Lol oh the irony….

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118891416#Comment_118891416

I think we are speaking about the same people. Security of tenure allows those people to move on with their lives and have families or whatever else they wish to pursue.

In addition a private market that walks away from middle to lower earners, but still sufficient income to contribute to their own homes should be viewed as an opportunity.

We may be moving towards a global slowdown/ recession with long term money still very cheap. This may provide an opportunity for increased labour and cooling effect on material prices. The state still has plenty of land if we can move away from dependence on vested interests, there may be an opportunity to make serious inroads into solving the issue, offsetting the expected recession and putting us in a much better place for the new world which is at major tipping point

getoutadodge

"On my side, it looks like it's good news on the job front, perhaps another week or so to get official confirmation. We're hoping we will be leaving this basket case by the end of the year and not playing the game anymore; to say I'd be relieved is an understatement as it is like the titanic or a slow motion car crash that's happening in Ireland. I no longer really care what happens to the property market here but it is clear that it is being manipulated by vested interests in a manner which leads me to think that economically we will be hit quite hard if the MNC gravy train stalls or reverses, given the staggering public expenditure which is just going to waste rather than being invested. And I don't want to be here when SF get into power, as much as I don't think much of FF/FG."

Good luck with the move ( i'll likely follow next winter) but regrettably there's no somewhere over the rainbow where property is affordable ..say at 3 to 4 multiples of gross annual income that was the post WW2 norm. I know because I looked on the ground not just on line. The multiple is 10 now in Dublin but even worse in Madrid, Lisbon, Rome, or London or Barcelona or further afield outside the EU such as Istanbul or anywhere in Oz or NZ. Most people by way of example in Lisbon take home an average of 1100 euro net. There is not much stock under 250k that is livable i.e. it's impossible for the average joe to ever own a home by leveraging a salary against a mortgage. Renting a room at the age of 30 plus while fully employed is reverting to 19th century model where most were forced to live in "lodgings". Millions emigrated from this continent on a wing and prayer to the Americas, South Africa or Oz etc ...in desperation to get the monkey off the back. Now a century later if I m sitting in a slum in Lagos or Cairo etc I can go on line and navigate the Social Welfare entitlements in Dublin or Stockholm etc ...and pack my bags. Flights are cheap.

getoutadodge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118877825#Comment_118877825

Nail on the head job!

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118889052#Comment_118889052

If you leave your just playing the game elsewhere maybe rules are a bit different but generally it’s swings and roundabouts.

wishing you all the best on your new adventure and hope it all works out well in the end.

Subzero3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118888771#Comment_118888771

Strategically you are better off going all in trying to get a council house. If it means not working or being "homeless" to get you or your family up the que then you will get emergency accommodation. The system at present is not fair for hardworking middle income earners. You can give out about welfare class ect but I prefer to think of it as don't hate the player, hate the game. And the game sucks.

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118893972#Comment_118893972

Plus you dont understand the rules of the game or have any local knowledge in another country, people do seem to think the grass is always greener and I'm sure the OP has done their homework but even I was surprised to see how low Irelands income taxes were compared to some other EU countries.

I think the only really bargains involve full time WFH with an Irish salary in the likes of Canary Islands, Croatia etc, unfortunately anywhere in the EU that is offering you a good salary will likely have similar problems to Ireland and you have no safety net of friends and family.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118894343#Comment_118894343

Everywhere has problems but the problems are different. What I found with buying in London is that they don't fart around like Irish EAs do, with only unsold properties listed and the asking price is what you end up paying. However there are things like council tax and water charges that Ireland does not really have.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118887209#Comment_118887209

surely if rates go up it will be gradually cost the state more to borrow to make debt repayments and will necessitate even higher taxes here to meet existing obligations... higher interest rates coupled with higher taxes sounds like a dire version of 2008 all over again.. hardly a cure to our national housing crisis...

mcsean2163

Interesting

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/william-s-grove-ardclough-celbridge-kildare/4580878

Ardclough is a nice spot but development not sold out. Seems to be a lot more on the market now maybe councils not buying second hand homes is having an affect?

Just noticed this

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/existing-home-sales#:~:text=Existing%20Home%20Sales%20in%20Ireland%20averaged%202391.60%20Units%20from%202010,Units%20in%20January%20of%202010.

All time high in December 2021. Methinks prices may start to decline a little.. .

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118895975#Comment_118895975

All time high since 2010…. More up-to date info on cso

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118896074#Comment_118896074

Thanks.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2022/additionalindicators/

significant drop in January. Will be interesting to see February.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118895975#Comment_118895975

Looking at the 5 bedroom. It 1800 sqft. It has two pokey on suites, a downstairs toilet and another ensuite with doors to two bedrooms and a small bathroom

What is this with squeezing in ensuites for the sake of it. Even the bedroom must be handy sized.

Pussyhands

Dutch Property Prices Fall

After years of steadily rising house prices, the housing market shows the first sign of cooling. Homebuyers, on average, paid 2.1 percent less for an existing house in the first three months of 2022 than in the previous quarter, realtors' association NVM reports. That's the first quarterly price decrease since the beginning of 2019. Compared to the first quarter of 2021, home prices were still much higher."

https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/07/dutch-housing-prices-fall-first-time-three-years

Interest rates on mortgages are rising sharply while the average adjusted disposable houshold income is dropping sharply due to inflation, which combined with sentiment in the market could mean a turning point on the housing markets. For a variety of reasons the reported decrease in prices isn't as significant as it might seem, but it might be an early sign we're approaching a potential turning point on the housing markets worldwide. Inflation in the Netherlands is rising extremely quick, from 1,4% in July to 11,9% in March, an indication the reduction in adjusted disposable income and rises in interest rates on martgages aren't temporary.

Average selling prices dropped from EUR 440,000 to EUR 428,000. Publications (Dutch only): https://www.nvm.nl/wonen/marktinformatie/

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118897014#Comment_118897014

Interestingly, asking prices in Dublin (particularly more expensive parts) ticked downwards during Q1 also. SCD down 2.1% after 2 years of massive growth.

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/b52f2a466477d05576bc/?s=urban

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118896569#Comment_118896569

Personally I think an abundance of en-suites is a massive plus and it's clearly the way purchaser demand is moving.

I'd definitely rather every room with a small one than having one or two large en-suites and then a shared bathroom between the remaining 3 bedrooms. I shudder when I see 2000sqm, 5 bed, 1bath houses that seemed to be the standard back in the day. Privacy of my own bathroom is an absolute non-negotiable!

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118897051#Comment_118897051

We've seen it I think around 2019 when prices dropped a little. I won't hold my breath that the next quarter prices go up 4%.

Something has to give. I just think the price of houses are insane.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118897292#Comment_118897292

And people wonder why houses are gone expensive. An on suite is minimum 4-5k extra a pop. Nobody is advocating a single bathroom in a 5 bed house.

How often is a guest room used at best one week in three or four. Another issue in that house is the down stairs ensuite is not suitable ( mainly too small) for someone with a mobility issue.

Browney7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118896265#Comment_118896265

Isn't there always a seasonal bounce in December with people closing out sales negotiated in the months prior before new year (the "in by Christmas" effect). Whereas there's a lull in Jan with people having annual leave in December and houses not coming to market till the spring typically?

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118897292#Comment_118897292

Its a chronic waste of resources

With 5-6 people living in a house, how often will more than 2 bathrooms be in use? You certainly have no need for 5 - an appalling waste of space.

1 downstairs toilet, 1 upstairs main bathroom, and at a push 1 ensuite in the master bedroom. Anything beyond that is excess for the sake of excess