Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the Irish Times it was due to:

"KPMG currently occupies two buildings in Dublin city centre, one at Stokes Place on Harcourt Street, and another in the IFSC, but is looking to accommodate its entire complement of 2,500 office-based workers under one roof following the expiration of its existing leases in 2026."

And only a few weeks ago, KPMG in the UK:

"Accounting and consultancy group KPMG has told its 16,000 UK staff that they will have to work only an average of two days in the office each week from next month, as the firm revealed its plans for a post-pandemic hybrid working model."

I would imagine KPMG Ireland implementing a similar policy soon as well.

Link to article in Irish Times article on KPMG headquarters here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/kpmg-selects-hibernia-reit-to-develop-new-dublin-headquarters-1.4577907

Link to KPMG new WFH policy here: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/05/kpmg-uk-staff-to-work-in-office-only-two-days-a-week-after-pandemic

Maybe, maybe not. The fact remains they are investing significantly in their office space.

I see you have come around to the idea of hybrid working. Wasn't long ago you were insisting this would never happen.

Ace2007

optogirl wrote: »

Cabra is a no go? Tell that to the people buying 2 bed ex-council houses for the guts of half a million

I put up a house for 350k in Cabra the other day and some said they wouldn't touch it because of the area...

optogirl

Ace2007 wrote: »

I put up a house for 350k in Cabra the other day and some said they wouldn't touch it because of the area...

I'll give you 320 for it :P

Ace2007

Ace2007 wrote: »

I put up a house for 350k in Cabra the other day and some said they wouldn't touch it because of the area...

Your property was in West cabra though..........
Sure in dublin, turn a corner into a different road, there could be hundreds of thousands in the difference of prices!

C14N

JimmyVik wrote: »

To someone who could use the land to build houses for people who need somewhere to live.

But it's already being used productively as a university, and as housing for thousands of students, and provides local amenities in terms of sports facilities and public greenspace. I wouldn't consider a college campus to be particularly under-utilised at all.

Ace2007 wrote: »

I put up a house for 350k in Cabra the other day and some said they wouldn't touch it because of the area...

Some wouldn't, but evidently some others would, which is really all that matters.

optogirl

bubblypop wrote: »

Your property was in West cabra though..........
Sure in dublin, turn a corner into a different road, there could be hundreds of thousands in the difference of prices!

West Cabra, East Cabra...it's much of a muchness in fairness

timmyntc

JimmyVik wrote: »

Nobody wanted those properties a few years ago.
And now we moan about people who bought them as investments or holiday homes when noone else would buy them.
People on boards were actually laughing at people who bought property either for investment or holiday homes.

Using housing as a speculative asset led us to the crash in 08.
Now using housing as a speculative asset has led us in part to a massive housing shortage.

The lack of demand after the crash is hardly some kind of contradiction.

C14N

L1011 wrote: »

There is a farm beside DCU, which is inside DCC.

Clontarf GC is also in DCC.

Technically, Bull Island is also apparently part of DCC (Today I Learned) and has two golf courses, but again, I think this is veering off the original point.

awec

bubblypop wrote: »

Your property was in West cabra though..........
Sure in dublin, turn a corner into a different road, there could be hundreds of thousands in the difference of prices!

Or as an EA would call it... Castleknock.

L1011

C14N wrote: »

Technically, Bull Island is also apparently part of DCC (Today I Learned) and has two golf courses, but again, I think this is veering off the original point.

Its also a SAC so never going to have much else built on it!

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Maybe, maybe not. The fact remains they are investing significantly in their office space.

I see you have come around to the idea of hybrid working. Wasn't long ago you were insisting this would never happen.

Not at all. I think I said companies will try it to keep all sides happy in the short-term with hybrid and then many will decide to go full time WFH or full time in office.

It will obviously take time for the impact to be fully felt due to companies being tied into existing lease terms etc. But as reported today in the Irish Times, AIB is looking to sub-let due to its new post-covid working environment.

I think the best way to get a picture of it's potential impact on the commercial office space would be to think if someone found a loophole where all office leases could expire on the 1st August with no penalty.

What percentage of companies would renew?

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Not at all. I think I said companies will try it to keep all sides happy in the short-term with hybrid and then many will decide to go full time WFH or full time in office.

It will obviously take time for the impact to be fully felt due to companies being tied into existing lease terms etc. But as reported today in the Irish Times, AIB is looking to sub-let due to its new post-covid working environment.

I think the best way to get a picture of it's potential impact on the commercial office space would be to think if someone found a loophole where all office leases could expire on the 1st August with no penalty.

What percentage of companies would renew?

What sort of question is this?

It could be 0%. It could be 99%. All we can go on are the actual facts. Offices are being built, offices are being leased, some businesses are moving to hybrid models, some businesses are moving to hybrid models and still investing in offices.

It would seem that the recent insistence that offices are dead has been premature.

optogirl

The company I work for, which has 2 floors in a building in Sandyford, are reducing to one floor and adopting a hybrid model from September. Not sure what that will look like yet. Sandyford was already a ghost town outside of working hours so hard to see how the local shops & cafes will survive.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

What sort of question is this?

It could be 0%. It could be 99%. You and I have absolutely no notion as to where to even begin. I would bet it's a lot closer to 99 than 0 though.

Well, AIB's lease on No 2 Burlington Road expires in 2027 and they're looking to sub-let due to their new post-covid working environment. We can assume at least that they wouldn't renew in such a scenario?

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, AIB's lease on No 2 Burlington Road expires in 2027 and they're looking to sub-let due to their new post-covid working environment. We can assume at least that they wouldn't renew in such a scenario?

Sure.

We can assume that KPMG would renew if they weren't building their new building instead, right? TikTok would renew their brand new space. etc etc etc. Do we need to collate a long list?

C14N

optogirl wrote: »

The company I work for, which has 2 floors in a building in Sandyford, are reducing to one floor and adopting a hybrid model from September. Not sure what that will look like yet. Sandyford was already a ghost town outside of working hours so hard to see how the local shops & cafes will survive.

Wouldn't quite call it a ghost town, there's always a bit of activity around Beacon South Quarter, but I do agree it's very lacking in any kind of evening amenities with only a handful of restaurants and no bars (a craft brewing company wanted to set up a taproom in a vacant lot but were denied permission by the council).

I'd like to believe a reduction in office usage would cause the councillors to loosen zoning restrictions but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Sure.

We can assume that KPMG would renew if they weren't building their new building instead, right? TikTok would renew their brand new space. etc etc etc. Do we need to collate a long list?

Well TikTok's lease terms were a 15-year lease with 10 years term-certain and a rent-free period of around 18 months. Hardly confidence boosting for the commercial office space and that building is very prime both location wise and build wise.

MacronvFrugals

optogirl wrote: »

The company I work for, which has 2 floors in a building in Sandyford, are reducing to one floor and adopting a hybrid model from September. Not sure what that will look like yet. Sandyford was already a ghost town outside of working hours so hard to see how the local shops & cafes will survive.

Agreed on the ghost town part, it was already very transient(y) before Covid, without the office workers even down at BSQ will be miserable

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Well TikTok's lease terms were a 15-year lease with 10 years term-certain and a rent-free period of around 18 months. Hardly confidence boosting for the commercial office space and that building is very prime both location wise and build wise.

It is completely unsurprising that you would try spin TikTok taking out a 10 year lease as bad news.

Hubertj

awec wrote: »

Sure.

We can assume that KPMG would renew if they weren't building their new building instead, right? TikTok would renew their brand new space. etc etc etc. Do we need to collate a long list?

https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/google-submits-plan-for-10-storey-city-extension-as-itbets-their-staff-will-return-to-the-office-40489559.html

Also found this interesting as some “expert” contributors on thesis thread suggested offices were finished and google were leaving as they are only here for tax purposes.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

It is completely unsurprising that you would try spin TikTok taking out a 10 year lease as bad news.

What those lease terms tell me is that the bargaining power has shifted to the tenants in the commercial office space.

I see a similar development happening in the residential space from around August.

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

I see a similar development happening in the residential space from around August.

Based on?

You've given lots of reasons, none of which stand up to even basic scrutiny, and which you've distended timelines on when its become clear they aren't happening. Not one of those is actually going to cause some drastic change in the rental market.

MacronvFrugals

The leasing regime has every two bit chancer rushing here before they've had breakfast



Bouwinvest invests EUR75m in Irish social and affordable rental housing venture led by Ardstone

Jasper Petit, Senior Portfolio Manager Europe at Bouwinvest, adds: “Specialists like Ardstone, who have boots on the ground((Eddie Hobbs )), give us local market knowledge and access to the increasingly sought-after affordable and social rental housing asset class. In our home market, the Netherlands, there is a huge shortage of rental accommodation in the mid-range and social segment. A similar situation exists in Dublin. That supply/demand imbalance in Dublin is precisely what we are targeting with our investment, as this enables us to create value in both social and financial terms.”

https://www.propertyfundsworld.com/2021/06/02/301181/bouwinvest-invests-eur75m-irish-social-and-affordable-rental-housing-venture-led

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

What those lease terms tell me is that the bargaining power has shifted to the tenants in the commercial office space.

I see a similar development happening in the residential space from around August.

Maybe, but that's a different issue entirely to what has been previously suggested.

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

Based on?

You've given lots of reasons, none of which stand up to even basic scrutiny, and which you've distended timelines on when its become clear they aren't happening. Not one of those is actually going to cause some drastic change in the rental market.

I believe I have always stated it's around July/August where I see big movements happening. We'll find out within three months I guess.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Maybe, but that's a different issue entirely to what has been previously suggested.

What's been suggested? Most of these companies are tied into long leases and some are already trying to get out of them e.g. AIB trying to sub-let it's Burlington Road office space etc.

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

What's been suggested? Most of these companies are tied into long leases and some are already trying to get out of them e.g. AIB trying to sub-let it's Burlington Road office space etc.

AIB have recently outsourced a whole department to India that would've worked 3 days a week from this building, its not surprising to me they're looking to downsize

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

AIB have recently outsourced a whole department to India that would've worked 3 days a week from this building, its not surprising to me they're looking to downsize

So those jobs are actually fully gone?

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

I believe I have always stated it's around July/August where I see big movements happening. We'll find out within three months I guess.

You were originally saying July, you're now saying August - not July/August.

The end of August is eight weeks away. The things you think are going to have an influence will take months to years to happen; if they ever happen and if they ever have an impact.

Amadan Dubh

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The leasing regime has every two bit chancer rushing here before they've had breakfast



Bouwinvest invests EUR75m in Irish social and affordable rental housing venture led by Ardstone






https://www.propertyfundsworld.com/2021/06/02/301181/bouwinvest-invests-eur75m-irish-social-and-affordable-rental-housing-venture-led

It seems like they are getting out of the Netherlands and trying to rush into Ireland before the residential property investment gold rush is over here.

There are proposals in the Netherlands to ban private investors in the housing market in a few of its large cities (not Amsterdam). I don't think we are that far off extreme measures at this stage.

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/05/major-cities-aim-to-ban-investors-from-housing-market-from-2022/

The law, which was passed by the lower house of parliament in March, would allow local councils to ban private investors from buying homes to rent out. Investors have been blamed for driving up house prices and putting them beyond the reach of first-time buyers.

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

So those jobs are actually fully gone?

Yes they are to an MNC, its not much <80 but its less prime office space and a killer for the local cafes etc

These staff actually occupied 2 sets of offices during the 5 day week, no longer needed now.

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

You were originally saying July, you're now saying August - not July/August.

The end of August is eight weeks away. The things you think are going to have an influence will take months to years to happen; if they ever happen and if they ever have an impact.

That's where you're spot on with your analysis into my thinking. I believe this has been in train since mid 2018. So, in my thinking we're already c. two years in.

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

That's where you're spot on with your analysis into my thinking. I believe this has been in train since mid 2018. So, in my thinking we're already c. two years in.

Or more realistically, we're two years in to you expecting an imminent and massive crash based on very strange bases, and it hasn't happened.

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

Or more realistically, we're two years in to you expecting an imminent and massive crash based on very strange bases, and it hasn't happened.

Not at all. The potential supply hasn't been significantly reduced from what I understand. A lot of the supply that was ready to enter the market pre-covid is still there and has been added to significantly over the past 12 months. In my mind, it's just a matter of pin pointing when it will all be released into the market.

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

Not at all. The potential supply hasn't been significantly reduced from what I understand. A lot of the supply that was ready to enter the market pre-covid is still there and has been added to significantly over the past 12 months. In my mind, it's just a matter of pin pointing when it will all be released into the market.

And despite being wholly unable to identify where this supply is, you believe it will all appear on the market within eight weeks?

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

And despite being wholly unable to identify where this supply is, you believe it will all appear on the market within eight weeks?

Yes, by the end of August, I believe it should start to become evident.

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

Yes, by the end of August, I believe it should start to become evident.

Which is weeks later than you originally claimed, of course.

And when it doesn't, what will you do?

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

Which is weeks later than you originally claimed, of course.

And when it doesn't, what will you do?

I don't believe I'll be wrong. But in the off chance I am, I'll have another look at the signals.

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't believe I'll be wrong. But in the off chance I am, I'll have another look at the signals.

...and presumably just give another date to be missed.

Timing belt

L1011 wrote: »

And despite being wholly unable to identify where this supply is, you believe it will all appear on the market within eight weeks?

It's behind you!! Oh wait.. The magic supply that props claims will come on the market is based on probate (Already proven in previous posts that there is no major backlog) and the magic properties that the funds bought from the 08'crash that they have been sitting on and will now dump on the market.... the only problem is that the bought very little property but a lot of debt. And this debt won't provide the magic supply....

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

...and presumably just give another date to be missed.

Another date to be missed? I haven't been proven wrong yet. It's the start of June...

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

Another date to be missed? I haven't been proven wrong yet. It's the start of June...

You've pushed July to late August. I'm certain the push to a date beyond late August will happen within weeks.

You cannot prove the apparent supply exists. You cannot give solid reasons as to why anyone sitting on supply would suddenly throw it all to market.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

It's behind you!! Oh wait.. The magic supply that props claims will come on the market is based on probate (Already proven in previous posts that there is no major backlog) and the magic properties that the funds bought from the 08'crash that they have been sitting on and will now dump on the market.... the only problem is that the bought very little property but a lot of debt. And this debt won't provide the magic supply....

During the Celtic Tiger years, nearly every town in Ireland had several different developers building on several different sites around those same towns. How many of these sites do those developers still own?


If they don't own them, who does?

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

You've pushed July to late August. I'm certain the push to a date beyond late August will happen within weeks.

You cannot prove the apparent supply exists. You cannot give solid reasons as to why anyone sitting on supply would suddenly throw it all to market.

Still haven't, as you assert, been proven wrong yet though.

PommieBast

awec wrote: »

Last year Google pulled out of one of the big building in the docks. Total doom, according to the property forum on boards, that was the end of it all, offices were sooo 2019. Building has since been let by TikTok.

From memory TikTok got what is effectively a pretty steep discount though.

yagan

PommieBast wrote: »

From memory TikTok got what is effectively a pretty steep discount though.

And how long will TikTok last before the next social media fad replace it?

Easy come, easy go. Google on the other hand has become a verb.

andrewfaulk

optogirl wrote: »

West Cabra, East Cabra...it's much of a muchness in fairness

Only about 30-50k in house price in the difference..
All my life long Cabra neighbours say Cabra East was always more settled of the two but both are fine..

The split is nowhere near as pronounced as Finglas for example

Balluba

L1011 wrote: »

You've pushed July to late August. I'm certain the push to a date beyond late August will happen within weeks.

You cannot prove the apparent supply exists. You cannot give solid reasons as to why anyone sitting on supply would suddenly throw it all to market.

L1011 what do you think will happen to the property market here by the end of August??

yagan

PropQueries wrote: »

How many of these sites do those developers still own?


If they don't own them, who does?

I know of one development of about 15 houses at foundation level that the landowner dug up and returned it to farming!

L1011

Balluba wrote: »

L1011 what do you think will happen to the property market here by the end of August??

Its short time away in summer, stuff gets quieter. Unlikely to be much change either direction