Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

jj880

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115643#Comment_119115643

Number 5 went for 3.45m in February 2021.

Can someone who knows the area have a shot at explaining this? I could do with a laugh this morning.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115703#Comment_119115703

Yes. Last year 42a which is bigger and looks nicer achieved €3,075,000.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/palmerston-road-redbrick-brings-its-a-game-for-3-25m-1.4416719

if the current one gets asking, I'm calling market top in the absence of hyperinflation.

Myhome seems to be levelling off, 12711 now.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119113716#Comment_119113716

Yet cause and effect and the political nature of where the property market finds itself go hand in hand. You point at Greece which was a complete basket case and compare to ourselves. Ireland will pay its debts and always has and it always will but to point at things like HAP and say there will be no money for it in the budget and using this excuse as having the potential for rents and house prices to drop is wrong. The current gov and any gov coming in after FF/G will cut elsewhere and raise taxes on the middle income earners before touching things like HAP and you have to think when we really couldn't afford HAP for the decade after the 08 crash when we as a country were running a deficit in our finances and yet HAP was always paid. I can hardly see any government cutting HAP when we are now on budget with our spend vs tax receipts. So once again I say horsesh1t when it comes to you saying we cant afford HAP going forward as we realistically could not afford it for a long time and for a good decade we as a country were borrowing the money for HAP. So even when our finances were worse off HAP always got paid and our political leanings going forward are going further left so there will be further goodies on the table to entice the welfare class to vote certain ways, other voting blocks will also be pandered to like the public sector. So just on your final comment if you cant see how politics and cause and effects of where we are, are one and the same then you need to do some research.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115703#Comment_119115703

And the garden is directly east facing...

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115007#Comment_119115007

I hope your getting a nice juicy pay rise as Switzerland is a more expensive in almost every area when compared to Ireland including rent??

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Switzerland&city1=Zurich&country2=Ireland&city2=Dublin

mcsean2163

Ireland very likely will not always pay its debts.

https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/earth-end/

We are the 3rd most indebted per capita in the world coming from a recent poverty beackground and it shows with crap government services all round.

If there's an MNC exodus like the lower paid sector in the 2000s e.g. Motorola, 3com, etc. but this time of higher value add e.g. Google, Wyeth,etc. then once again we'll have no money but this time we'll have no rope to run up debt.

Thi might never happen but if it does, it's unlikely the Troika would allow government to continue to pay such huge housing supports.

So once again I say horsesh1t when it comes to you saying we cant afford HAP going forward as we realistically could afford it and for a good decade we as a country were borrowing the money for HAP.

I never said that. I said IF IF the scenario I outlined occurred it's unlikely hap would be paid as it currently is.

In my scenario, I only looked at a possibility around money. Of course politicians will buy votes with hap in order to get elected but I took them out of the equation and said if we had no money, something could happen.

I'm going to leave it there because I imagine this is boring for everyone else here. You can have the last word. Think I've laid out my concern as explicitly as needs be

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115868#Comment_119115868

To counter that, our credit rating got upgraded 2 weeks ago: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0506/1296566-moodys-upgrades-ireland-sovereign-credit-rating-to-a1/

So the markets sure aren't worried about Ireland repaying debt

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115703#Comment_119115703

A lick of paint on the units and you would have a modern kitchen.

Pussyhands

We've struck gold with the MNCs but that is going to come to an end eventually. We're going to look back in years to come and wonder what the f we did with all that extra money we got.

We're getting billions and billions that really, other countries should be getting a slice of too.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115789#Comment_119115789

Double salary after tax (as tax is a lot lower on incomes there) and approximately forty percent increase in cost of living is what it looks like it will work out for rent and general cost of living as set out in Numbeo. Definitely much better off financially in Switzerland than Ireland.

In Ireland it might seem that one earns good money but in fact salaries are far too low for how expensive it is. It is very poor value for money to live here.

Nermal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115643#Comment_119115643

I question whether prices of large period properties like this have properly adjusted to future energy costs, renovation costs and the level of control the environmental and heritage movements have over Government policy. Perhaps I'm naive about the sort of person who drops €3.35m on something like this, but homes like this are going to require whopper investment in future to remain liveable.

Browney7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115563#Comment_119115563

Quick eyeball of the underlying report had this interesting comment:

"Our analysis also raises questions regarding the targeting of supports to lowincome renters. As previously highlighted by Corrigan (2019), we find that a significant number of high-income households in supported rental accommodation pay rent no higher than that of many lower-income households in absolute terms, and much lower relative to their incomes. Conversely, many low-income renters receive no support from the State for their housing costs and face high rent-to income ratios, contributing to the chronic affordability challenges identified by Blackwell (1989), Fahey (2004) and Corrigan et al. (2019), among others"

Seems to be implying once you get assistance you're flying but the ability to obtain that assistance at present is challenging.

Some eye watering numbers in that research

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115902#Comment_119115902

You'd need to rip that whole dreary kitchen out to get anything modern. It's an awful layout.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119116449#Comment_119116449

May somewhat explain why low paid sectors are finding it difficult to fill positions.

Heavily subsidised housing plus fuel allowance less cost of commuting to work versus minimum wage. Bit of a no brainer especially if you can pick up a few days work paying cash

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115721#Comment_119115721

The area between Cowper rd and Temple rd is one of the most expensive areas of dublin. Look at Temple gardens just around the corner. I remember a 300sqm semi-d needing gutting going for €9m in 2006. Now that was a laugh. It sold again in mint condition for €5.85m in 2016. But seriously beautiful period houses on leafy tree lined roads around there.

jj880

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119117400#Comment_119117400

Not tryin to offend you but I just cant stand that kind of estate agent speak after the mess property has made of the economy. Sounds like old houses with trees outside them to me. Wonder how much they were in the mid 90s. Someone made a pretty penny on them for sure.

ittakestwo

No EA here just an observer, but this area was always one of the most expensive parts of Dublin even before the boom. They did go up massively in the boom but so did everything. There is no doubt that the very high end like this went up the most in the boom.

It is funny that someone is giving out today about 300sqm semi-d on temple villas asking €3.45m needing updating as bad value and humours when a similar sized semi d around the corner needing updating on temple gardens went for €9m in 2006. As crazy as the maket is today the high end is still nowhere near those crazy levels of the boom. I actually think that house on temple villas will get over its asking.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119117495#Comment_119117495

Think you're being overly reductive there, they are beautiful houses, they're big and they're in a very sought after area.

If you don't get why they are expensive you don't really get the housing market. Nothing to do with estate agents.

jj880

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119117746#Comment_119117746

I went up and down the street on google maps but I know that's not the same as being there or knowing the area so fair enough. I apologise to @ittakestwo for being dismissive of his/her local knowledge.

I dont agree that property prices (expensive properties or not) are nothing to do with estate agents. I know for a fact developers work with them to drive up prices. They dont inform sellers of offers if they are looking to sell under the table at a discount to their friends / employees. They fake bid. They will take cash payments and give you back a cheque. If theres someone with a lot of money living in an area buying up property they will jack up prices aimed at that individual and to hell with everyone else. I could go on all day. Are they responsible for the entire housing market? No but they are the worst part of buying a property and do drive up prices in my opinion.

jo187

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119115563#Comment_119115563

So the government is using tax payers money to pay private landlords as people working full time can't afford to get by. So essentially the government is also funding employers.

Yet they won't raise minimum wage or have a rent freeze? 🤔

AdamD

Its an amazing road in a great area with massive period houses, hardly a surprise they're expensive.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119113742#Comment_119113742

This is both hilarious and depressing if true. Lagrade is not an economist yet, she is treating the ECB like some kind of monarchy. There are calls from all quarters about interest rates, yet here she is, **** it up again.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119117907#Comment_119117907

Raising minimum wage = inflation

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119117867#Comment_119117867

EAs all over the world are not exactly known as the most honest of professions but the Irish ones are the only I know where you have to assume they are outright crooks and need to call in a third-party to check even the most basic of details. Ultimately it was this rather than excessive prices that made me get out.

jo187

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119118482#Comment_119118482

So what the solution?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119118602#Comment_119118602

if people stop buying things because they dont have enough money then the economy has got bigger problems with job layoffs as businesses make less money. I think not increasing salaries just makes consumers poorer.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119118602#Comment_119118602

Have an excess supply of rental property brought about by either better use of existing property, building more or reducing the population with some form of immigration control. Once there is an excess supply of rental properties renters will have choice and rents will drop.

All of the above is included in government plans with the exception of immigration control as without immigrants businesses would suffer and tax intake would fall. Countries that have adopted such policies because of housing have not had much success because work permits get approved or businesses relocate which leaves a hole in public finances.

Do I think we will see excess supply in the near future? Absolutely not because of constraints within the economy whether it is that costs are prohibiting buildings coming back into use or the lack of builders to build new properties.

Yet the country is full of green fields that could be rezoned which would make a big difference if a heavy tax (80%) was implemented on any gain in land value which would mean that the land would have to be developed to be able to pay the tax and the proceeds of the tax could be used to provide infrastructure for the new developments.

jo187

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119118845#Comment_119118845

I honestly don't believe rental prices would drop in a major way with more supply.

These companies want max profits and if the government is going to pay the rent they will keep it as high as they can

It's quite clear this government created this mess by design or by being stupid.

Amadan Dubh

I find it funny in a tragic way that people think FF and FG want to solve the housing crisis and by "solve" I mean dramatically increase supply and significantly force down housing costs. It goes to the core of their ideology to keep house prices high, even if it comes at a cost to some people ("it's just young people and disposable immigrants who pay, we don't primarily represent them").

We can all talk about what needs to be done to "fix" the problem but the fix necessarily involves something in the region of 40-60% drops in rents and 20-40% drops in house prices - FF and FG don't want to do this, so the solutions we talk about in the context of FF and FG in government is utterly pointless.

That isn't to say that there is a viable alternative but just to say that FF and FG will not do anything to the housing market if rents and house prices would drop 40-60%.

But what does that mean, if you are feeling helpless and at the end of your tether? Well, be prepared for the political change that will happen in Ireland. There is ground support there for dramatic change to how our economy and housing market operate, which will manifest in the coming elections, for sure. Quite simply, in the absence of global economic struggles before the next election (eg the 2022 dotcom crash hurting MNC growth), the single biggest event that will in all probability cause the housing market to correct will be from the next election that will be held in less than 3 years. Looking beyond that, a slightly better than 50/50 chance of a united Ireland referendum passing in the north and south in the next 5-10 years which would likely result in housing costs in the south falling and those in the north rising should a united Ireland follow that event.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119111753#Comment_119111753

Need to add another company to this list, Microsoft.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/microsoft-to-slow-hiring-in-windows-office-teams-chat-groups-1.1771063