Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149545#Comment_119149545

Inflation will probably start to slow towards the end of the year (as end of 2021 inflation was already getting high) so the YOY increase will not be as big as the YOY increases right now so they'll probably say inflation is coming down by itself and it'll be back to 2% start of 2024. When the yanks are making you look foolish, it's a bad look.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119149900#Comment_119149900

Well, it's important to note that there is no constant state in the market and the best we can hope for is for prices and rents to not increase or decrease substantially, they should be fairly consistent YoY for the most sustainable market to exist. That's an equilibrium as far as the property market is concerned. We're obviously no where near that state currently.

Amadan Dubh

Salesforce, Microsoft, Facebook, Twitter all pausing new hires. Is this good news for the rental market and is it likely to make a dent in the demand side of the equation?

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119147732#Comment_119147732

When I was an apprentice dirty years ago I often stay in digs that were similar.

There was five of is in a converted garage with a single bed and two sets of bunk beds.

Stayed in another one in the same area two sets of bunk beds in a standard double room.

Stayed in Dublin for four weeks in house, I think it was in Frederick St, I was in a room with three other men in single beds. It was a kind of B&B, but breakfast was boiled eggs. You got a Fry Saturday and Sunday morning

jj880

Irish Springsteen fans booking flights/hotels/tickets all over Europe as its cheaper than hotels/tickets for Dublin.

Multinationals sending emails to employees begging them to rent a room to new hires as theres nothing else available.

This is madness.

If this isnt sorted the last recession will look like the good times compared to whats coming. Our politicians are running the country off a cliff.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119148328#Comment_119148328

5% minimum….where is your source or is it just your own wild personal prediction ?

MoneyPrinterGoBuurrrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150952#Comment_119150952

Well we are hitting inflation in the double digits which could get out of control and they've already reached that in the US (5.09% currently) and the ECB has confirmed they're following suit with rate hikes in July so it's not outside the realms of possibility. It wasn't too long ago we had double digit rates so what's so "wild" about 5%?

Not every prediction can have a "source", smh.

MoneyPrinterGoBuurrrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150641#Comment_119150641

08 will look like a picnic, MNCs are holding off hiring and in some cases layoffs are already starting in the US due to reckless hiring policies during the pandemic, we will likely see the same in some departments based in Ireland.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119148736#Comment_119148736

Which money supply graph? And have you taken into account the reclassification of savings which made the M2 money supply look like it grew dramatically

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150969#Comment_119150969

Where are rates at 5.09% in the states….the last I looked the fed rate was only 1%

MoneyPrinterGoBuurrrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151006#Comment_119151006

I can't post the link but Google the following:

" Average long-term US mortgage rates edge down, still over 5%

Associated Press "

Or this from 3 weeks ago:

Average long-term US mortgage rates edge up to 5.3%

Independent.co.uk

It's expected they will probably hit 10% by end of 2023 as there is many more rate hikes to come.

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151011#Comment_119151011

The Federal Reserve are forecasting interest rates to rise to 2.8% in 2023, with economists predicting that they will peak at 2.88%. Rates are going to go up for sure, but you're certainly a little out there in predciting 10%.

Inflation is already slowing in the US according to their PCE index (the NASDAQ has risen nearly 10% this week on the back of the figures, the DOW up 4% - not much mention of that here).

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151011#Comment_119151011

So to put what you are saying in context 30 year USA mortgage rates are slightly higher than before covid. Rates are not expected to rise by a further 5% with most analysts predicting about another 2% at max

Pussyhands

Tesla pausing all hiring and says they need to cut staff by about 10%.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-musk-says-tesla-needs-cut-staff-by-10-pauses-all-hiring-2022-06-03/

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151068#Comment_119151068

An 8 week continuous fall fall in share prices was always going to tempt cash back into the market. There is still plenty of it out there with very limited places to preserve its value

Elon musk is setting off the alarm bells this morning noting he had a super bad feeling about the economy with plans to lay off 10% of staff at tesla. This is after the investment banks caution earlier

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-03/tesla-pauses-hiring-musk-says-need-to-cut-staff-by-10-reuters-l3y4nb36

https://www.independent.ie/business/world/jpmorgan-ceo-warns-of-coming-economic-hurricane-41715658.html

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150990#Comment_119150990

Can't find the one I saw before but this is the closest to it I've come across

https://recessionalert.com/relationship-between-stocks-fed-balance-sheet/

The chart below shows the size of securities held outright by the US Federal Reserve versus Wilshire Total market index as stock market proxy. We see the various quantitative easing programs that propelled the stock market higher including the massive Covid19 liquidity injection that set stocks on a never-before-seen trajectory

This is an article about a Société generale report that shows where stock prices would potentially be without QE. Article is pre covid. Pretty scary stuff

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/without-qe-the-s-p-500-would-be-trading-closer-to-1-800-than-3-300-says-societe-generale-11604688442

Villa05

Government progress in tackling (fueling) inflation ☺️

http://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2022/0603/1302821-housing-assistance-payment/

http://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2022/0602/1302731-rental-crisis-ireland/

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119152716#Comment_119152716

FFG can get fcuked. Propping prices yet again. Enemies of the people.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119152716#Comment_119152716

Saw that latter article yesterday. I did wonder if LLs in non-RPZ areas see the writing on the wall and are front-loading rent rises while they still can.

I remember moving here in 2012 and being shocked that HAP existed and at such a high value, competing with people who didn’t have a job (fortunately rent was low then and I had a fairly decent paying job but it still shocked me).

10 years on, not only is it still going it’s being increased!

I like Ireland, it’s been good to me but honestly stuff like this just makes no sense, it’s beyond silly!

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119152716#Comment_119152716

54% of rentals paid for by the state, new hap limits should help increase that number further. Anyone paying their own way can sod off to Oz or something!

The sooner government corporation tax intake reduces the better- they are just squandering it n making things worse for ordinary Joe soaps.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119152795#Comment_119152795

It is not just the level of HAP...it is also who is eligible to get it....combine those two and you have a cluster of a situation that has just been made considerably worse by the announcement today. The madness will never end here.

GoldFour4

Do people not think that SF would likely expand the offering of HAP or other equivalents ? I can’t see things improving on that front for a very long time.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119152771#Comment_119152771

The primetime program that came with that rental increase story is fairly bleak viewing

A woman working 2 jobs breaking down on TV asking what do I have to do? Work 24 hours. She was offered a place at affordable rent in return for sex

The radio is plastered with ads for surveys for employers to do report on gender pay gap in their business and what their going to do about it, the ad finishes with this is an iniative of the government of Ireland

Seriously! We are at full employment, one of the viewers of the house that poor woman was looking at to rent was from a MNC desperately looking for housing for workers in Kildare. Kildare coco have reduced there housing plan recently.

What the fcuk is wrong with our state institutions. If you are out of your depth, for your own and the countries sake please leave and find a job you are capable of doing

freemickey

One of the easiest, most efficient means to reduce the housing crisis is an outright halt on non-eu migration going forward.

Let current visas finish up with no chance of renewal.

That alone would be the equivalent of building x thousands of housing per year, except accomplished with a couple of pen strokes rather than actually building.

EU migration needs also to be scrutinised under the lens of emergency power. Emergency powers equal to the urgency of bonafide crisis.

No need to point out that it is what it is now, the salient point is that everything changes and can change. And in a crisis, should change.

However, further to my own personal belief that this is a purposeful pyramid scheme enabled by migration, the leadership's of this country are hell-bent on doing precisely the opposite. What does that tell you?

See the fast-tracking of a further 40,000 non-eu migrants to take up the unaffordable jobs such as the airport fiasco. How are they going to afford living on these jobs, and where? "Who cares?"

What they are doing right now is exactly, and I can't overstate this, EXACTLY the opposite of what needs to be done to reverse the housing crisis.

It handily explains where this housing crisis originated in the first place.

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153349#Comment_119153349

The housing situation was the Govt's own making. I am not political and don't have any affiliations to any parties.

I am a small landlord with two properties both rented one to RAS and the other to HAP (both well below market rates and both in RPZ).

The State and media have vilified the small landlord and taxed us unfairly compared to the corporate landlord. The corporate landlord only wants the high value rents. A third of properties for sale is from the small landlord as from the Primetime program.

I have suggested multiple times extend the rent a room relief to landlords. Any rent up to a certain limit is tax free anything about that is all taxed. The benefit of this is it allows the tenant save a deposit to actually buy a property, it also encourages builders to build knowing they have willing and financed available buyers waiting to buy.

In the short term it might reduce the number of small landlords leaving the market.

Perhaps the biggest issue (other than the tax) for the small landlord is the inability to evict none paying tenants in a timely fashion.

I note on Primetime the Govt are considering the tax treatment of landlords (but only considering something). Even the housing advocates (not sure if it was Focus Ireland, Threshold or the Peter McVerry Trust) are saying the tax of small landlords should be changed to encourage long term tenancies.

Ironically the two parties making a decent return on this is the State on taxing the small landlord and the REITS paying no tax and if the shareholders are non residents they can claim back any income tax they pay.

Then we have Leo Varadkar say the squeezed middle need to be helped.

Seriously you could not make this stuff up!

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119152393#Comment_119152393

Maybe my opinion is biased because I lived through the 07/08 crash at a cognisant age and people like Dinon didn't have a breeze about what was coming.

But the more experts that claim economic armageddon is coming the more I'm starting to think it won't!

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150279#Comment_119150279

No worries, the government will just keep picking up the slack with the easy money they have access to. In the same way they are propping up hotels, they will keep the residential market propped up at all costs.

Unconscionable and borderline treasonous to impoverish future generations with policies such as this rather than investing in a more sustainable future. FF and FG will have squandered the last twenty years of growth when the whole charade falls apart (likely when SF get into power and it turns out that FF and FG left nothing behind them for SF to work with).

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/housing-planning/2022/06/03/hap-to-be-increased-by-up-to-35-to-tackle-rising-rents/

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153404#Comment_119153404

International migration or lack of is not a solution to national incompetence.

Pussyhands

How can landlords come in and claim they are the good guys and to propose more tax breaks to make it more viable to be a landlord. Yes, there's a shortage of rental properties. There's a far bigger shortage of for sale properties!

You really want investors buying up houses for sale just to rent? How does that solve anything? All these landlords getting out of being a landlord and selling up, so what? They're being sold to first time buyers or other landlords, the properties aren't being demolished ffs.

If you sort the lack of availability of properties for sale, you sort the rental supply issue.