Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119239352#Comment_119239352

A good 10k are empty cause they are new builds.. If one assumes they are to be sold, why aren't they not in the open market. Is property considered an asset I wonder, a bit like bitcoin.. Buy it and do nothing, wait for its value to increase.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119240316#Comment_119240316

once a house had a roof, windows and doors installed it is counted as habitable. Most new builds are turnkey so explains why new builds are counted as vacant in census

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119240567#Comment_119240567

Are you sure though ? These stats are from the latest Census which just happened 3 months ago. I have my doubt census enumerator where going around to houses/flats that are still being built which probably won't even have an Eircode.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119240590#Comment_119240590

the same definition as previous census. As quoted above by the cso “dwellings being vacant for census purposes does not necessarily entail that they are available for re-use or to house other persons”

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119240621#Comment_119240621

Fair enough

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119240316#Comment_119240316

It's not the new build figure that jumps out most in my opinion.

It's the 35,000 vacant rental properties during a period in which daft's rental report noted:

In Dublin, for example, there were almost 1,750 homes available to rent on 1 January 2020, up nearly 30% from the 1,350 available two years earlier. Outside Dublin, the number available had also increased – from 1,900 to 2,200. TThis meant that, on the cusp of covid19 in early 2020, there were roughly 4,000 homes on the market at any one point in time.

Availability of new rental homes has collapsed since then. On May 1st this year, there were just 851 homes available to rent nationwide – down 77% year-on year and a frankly unprecedented number in a series extending back to the start of 2006.

And yet the government still dither on a vacancy tax.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119240238#Comment_119240238

esri also predicting a possible 2% drop in house prices per 0.5% increase in interest rates which they predict could rise by 2% over next year .. though potential reduction in house prices is somewhat mitigated by migration in their forecast

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119240173#Comment_119240173

I don't know. Just rough figures. However, I'd imagine a lot of one beds are for two people...

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119240697#Comment_119240697

A vacancy tax is virtually unenforceable. There will be opt-out for those in nursing homes. After that you will probably only need a PPS number to validate the house is not vacant. Any ody with children/ grandchildren over 18 will be able to avoid the tax.

The biggest issue out there is the fear if you rent that you may have issues with nonpayment, trying to get the house back or damages to the property. The tax is a massive disincentive as well. A resolution to a few of them issues might help more than a tax that people can avoid

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119241174#Comment_119241174

This idea it is unenforceable is very silly.

Apply only in RPZs.

Exempt all PPRs.

Exempt all properties with an RTB registered tenancy either current or terminated within last 6 months.

Exempt all properties with planning permission for STLs.

Exempt all properties with dependent relative living in them.

Task Revenue with collecting the tax. Stiff interest for non payment.

Make a compliance cert requirement of sale or RTB registered tenancy.

Compliance cert requires either proof of payment or proof of exemption.

That should cover most of it.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119241247#Comment_119241247

Or do as Bass said and stop screwing private land Lords

I wouldn't want to rent out a place if it was possible some goon could live it in for up to 18 months rent free before I could legally move them on....with practically no recourse (that's worth chasing) for any damage done in the meantime.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119241489#Comment_119241489

I agree that the disincentives to private landlords should be removed as well. Use a carrot and stick approach to solve this problem.

but that’s a slightly separate argument. My point above was it could be enforced very easily if the will to introduce it was there. The idea that it is unenforceable is just an excuse.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119241489#Comment_119241489

I agree with your point on lack of support in dealing with problem tennants, but what is the point in a landlord having a house and not renting it out.

Would our fishermen/women tie up there trawlers because it might sink in the sea

35,000 rental homes empty, that is nuts. How can any government be serious about housing with this going on

cnocbui

I doubt this will alter any opinions about how Ireland's property affordability isn't bad comparatively:

https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/australia-ranks-fourth-on-global-property-risk-list-will-we-dodge-it-20220623-p5aw4b.html

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119241174#Comment_119241174

Free rent in such an instance should be seen as a gift and then taxed accordingly. Also, my kids grandparents certainly wouldn't want to make fraudsters out of grandchildren....

combat14

great to see asking prices for houses up 12% outside dublin year on year ...

meanwhile in the real world musgraves (supervalu, centra) and other retailers express serious concerns for september noting spending has already changed in store in the last 6-8 weeks, stating consumer sentiment is now fragile with covid savings spent they are concerned for sept. when post holidays & back to school expenses are paid the next set of even higher than usual winter energy bills hit consumers - the real pain will be felt then

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119242313#Comment_119242313

You can sense it everytime you do the weekly shop, mass conversions to lidl/aldi/dealz. Dunnes are churning out vouchers at faster pace than the ECB to try and get footfall through the door. The pinch is being felt

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119242028#Comment_119242028

So children should be charged if they stay at home. It's not going to happen. Let's deal with reality not with wishy washy morality statements

https://www.boards.ie/profile/hometruths

Say that PPR or houses used by dependent relative should be exempt as well as properties with planning for STL and those with a registered RTB tenancy in the last six months.

It's highly unlikely that any Government ( even the Shinnors if in power) would levy the tax on a house where a child of the owner is resident. Even if they do I know situations where children or grandchildren are housing sitting for security reasons. For them it will be as easy to pay the tax.

What is the purpose of the tax. Is it to collect tax or encourage owner to take a risk to rent properties that they are leaving vacant at present

This is all sloganeering just like Pearce Doherty half shouting about taxing so called windfall profits in hotels or in businesses whether it's construction. He knows it not possible so he screams about it and a section of society believe it.

A vacancy tax will not solve this issue. As the CSO says some of these houses are in disrepair. Just drive through any urban area whether it's a city or a small village and there are hundred of thousands of older commercial building with unused area above them. It's what the Census enumerator I spoke to highlighted. You want to encourage owners of these to bring them back into the residential use. But these are so many pitfalls none will consider it.

Gant21

we’re on the down hill, I’ve wore the shirt.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119242432#Comment_119242432

It's highly unlikely that any Government ( even the Shinnors if in power) would levy the tax on a house where a child of the owner is resident.

That's why I am saying make that exact situation exempt. Problem solved.

What is the purpose of the tax. Is it to collect tax or encourage owner to take a risk to rent properties that they are leaving vacant at present

To encourage some of those 35k rental empty rental properties to be either rented or sold. To reduce the vacancy rate. It's not about the tax take. The less tax collected on this the better from the governments point of view.

This can be done very easily. It is just a variation of a tax we have already had in force about 10 years ago - the NPPR charge.

There are of course reasons that some people are against it, but to say it cannot be done because it is unworkable is ridiculous.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119241735#Comment_119241735

That's how unattractive the powers that be have made being a smalltime private landlord

You wouldn't see a number that high if it was a more fair and balanced system.

Id wager you would probably see lower rents too....

wassie

Myhome.ie Q1 Property report has been published.

Main Findings (copied direct from website)

• Property market squeeze continues as asking price inflation rises to 12.3% nationwide
• Impaired supply and robust demand mean double-digit inflation is likely until at least mid-2022
• Record low of 11,200 homes listed for sale nationally on MyHome.ie
• There has been no let-up in the property market squeeze for the first quarter of the year, with national annual asking price inflation now running at 12.3%, according to the latest quarterly house price report from MyHome.ie.

https://www.myhome.ie/reports/2022/Q1

Mr Hindley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119242582#Comment_119242582

But that's for Q1. So much has changed since then that this is practically a historical document at this stage...

BrianD3

I have properties in a couple of different areas well outside Dublin but with plenty of demand from commuters (before Covid/wfh at least) I keep a close eye on prices and there seems to be a significant slowdown compared to last year. Houses are staying on the market much longer and I have seen a few that they didn't get close to their asking prices when they did sell. One semi d sold for 30% below asking price and for a similar price to what it sold for in 2010. Another detached estate house sold for 30% less than a neighbouring property had done a few months previously, one property was in much better condition than the other but this still didn't explain such a price difference.

At the start of the last Irish property crash, we didn't have a property price register to cross reference with asking prices etc. If there is a crash this time, things could happen more quickly. The last time, it took several years of declining prices to reach the bottom.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119242553#Comment_119242553

Many of the empty houses are actually in use. A lot of the people in fingal wouldn't have English as their first language n wouldn't be able to complete a census easily.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/cso-standing-over-census-figures-of-183-000-vacant-dwellings-1.3221521

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119242582#Comment_119242582

I saw that report.

Even though they had a record low of 11,200 homes for sale at a point in time in the Quarter, today they have 13,921 and trending up along with Daft.ie

In the report they said that on average in 2017-2019 they had approx 21,000 homes for sale, so we are far from that point yet, however, remember in 2019 house prices actually fell!

I'd say if the stock of houses for sales gets anywhere near the levels we saw in 2017-2019 house prices will drop. Will be very interesting to see how many houses will be for sale on myhome by Christmas. It could be as high as 20,000.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119242694#Comment_119242694

The CSO learnt from 2016 and have already headed off these sort of criticisms of their methodology: https://www.cso.ie/en/census/census2022/census2022andvacantdwellingsfaq/

"Census enumerators adhered to detailed procedures that have been developed by the CSO in consultation with key experts across several censuses. As part of these procedures, enumerators varied the times of the day, and days of the week, they called to dwellings in order to make contact with householders. For example, when an enumerator called to a home during the day and failed to make contact, they dropped off their contact telephone number on a calling card. The subsequent visits were at different times such as evenings and weekends.

Enumerators also looked for signs of vacancy such as post and junk mail building up, no lights on at night, no cars in driveways, overgrown gardens, or no windows open. If they observed any signs of occupancy, they could not record the home as vacant. Where they could not make contact with a particular household, the enumerator checked with neighbours to enquire about the dwellings. If neighbours told them there were people living in these dwellings, the enumerator could not record them as vacant."

So even if a form is not returned for a property, if there is any evidence of occupancy, the property is not recorded as vacant.

Leaving that aside, the highest Dublin vacancy rates are in the highest value areas eg D2,4,6 etc. You can see that on the Vacancy by Electoral Division on this page: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cpr/censusofpopulation2022-preliminaryresults/housing/

Are there really a lot of houses in Ballsbridge with occupants who don't speak English, successfully concealing their occupancy from enumerators? Seems unlikely.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119242561#Comment_119242561

Reminds me of the souvenir genuine Irish mug which had the handle on the inside. We seem to go out of our way to make a process/system not work

If your a landlord and your leaving your property empty at peak rents with 100's of candidates to pay the rent to choose from, maybe one should consider a career change and sell their asset

combat14

Consumer confidence in our nearest trading partner is on the floor....

UK consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since records began nearly 50 years ago, as the cost of living crisis hits households, and a summer of strike action looms.

Research company GfK’s monthly survey of Consumer Confidence Index has hit a new record low this month, dropping one point to -41 in June.

GfK’s monthly survey of how consumers are feeling stretches back to 1974 and so includes some previous periods when times have been hard: the manufacturing wipe out of the early 1980s, the housing crash of the early 1990s and the global financial crisis of 2008 among them.

In all that time, consumers have never been as gloomy as they are now.

(The Gaurdian)

its only a matter of when this spreads to lenders confidence and the housing market here

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119242993#Comment_119242993

Unless you are deliberately leaving it empty for two years so you can get out of the RPZ rules and set the rent to whatever you like, potentially getting you twice the rent or massively increasing the value of the property if you want to sell it to another investor.