Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Ap2020

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119259778#Comment_119259778

The result will be to drive apartment, small terrace houses, and duplex construction, and drive prices of those options up to the limit of the scheme.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119262934#Comment_119262934

True but should also drive up supply too which should eventually lower prices assuming supply meets demand.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119255723#Comment_119255723

From the Daft report.

Figures on the availability of homes to buy, by and large, would support this conclusion. There were just over 12,400 homes available to buy at the start of June, effectively unchanged from the same date a year ago ‐ when just under 12,400 homes were available to buy. This is still a low total nationally in the context of the last decade. Between 2015 and 2020, there were on average almost 24,000 homes available to buy at any one time. This suggests that supply is tight compared to what the market had been used to over the last decade or so.

They say 12,400 homes were for sale at the start of this month, yet today there are over 17,000 homes for sale on Daft.

Whats going on here?

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119263672#Comment_119263672

there is a rush to the doors to sell before next recession hits properly this winter ..

omicron

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119263672#Comment_119263672

If you exclude sites there's 14000 for sale currently so I presume that's the difference

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119263716#Comment_119263716

Fair point. Surprised that there are over 3,000 sites on sale daft though. That to me is a very high number. I guess some landowners want to cash in.

Still a bit of a discrepancy between 12,400 and 14,000 though.

Mr Hindley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119263852#Comment_119263852

I've been watching the numbers for a while, and a few thousand sites sounds about right. In terms of total properties for sale (houses and sites), it's been going up about a thousand a month for the last couple of months.

omicron

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119263852#Comment_119263852

Its possible daft have a way to filter out duplicates also. New build estates etc often have multiple ads up, some houses rurally would have 2 selling agents occasionally also, or an ad for house with some land and a separate as for house without adjoining land.

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119263852#Comment_119263852

There have always been a fairly high number of sites up on Daft, mainly listed by local auctioneers. I know my own home town has many of the same sites up for years, probably just to garner interest.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119263681#Comment_119263681

At present there is a rush to the door by smaller LL's. But like the old electrical appliances advert that Home store and more took off

''When they are gone they are definitely gone ''

I predicted a possible 5-10% correction earlier this year. I still stand by that. But when it happens there will be those predicting it will go to 20 or 30%. It will be the same as 2014/15 they will miss out again

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119264774#Comment_119264774

maybe a correction in REAL terms (inflation adjusted) but not in nominal terms because the supply isn’t there and any of the supply coming online in the likes of Dublin are all BTR which will have high rents.

Families renting 3 bed houses will get squeezed as the LL sell while the institutional landlords deliver 1 & 2 bedroom apartments.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119264837#Comment_119264837

and eventually the government will be squeezed to do something.. they are almost half way through their term .. a vacant property tax will have to be introduced in the next budget after the summer recess to free up some of the tens of thousands of houses lying idle during a national crisis or disaster

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119264837#Comment_119264837

This is why the country is not attractive long term for expats, they are essentially told that they are not wanted long term. They are only here for the short term, pay a bit of income tax from their MNC job and spend cash in the pubs then head off to the next country.

It's why we will end up having to import third world populations to cover our standard of living as we cannot actually facilitate sustainable migration and sustainable economic growth.

11 weeks until myself and my expat finance up sticks and emigrate. I would recommend others who can to do so now before the long winter comes. Don't believe people that say it is bad everywhere, it really isn't!

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119265847#Comment_119265847

Is it that far away😒😒😡

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119264774#Comment_119264774

Get down to Power City now!!!

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119265820#Comment_119265820

Maybe the government policies of the last 10 years or so of sticking it to the big, bad landlords hasn't worked.

If they brought in that non paying tenants could get kicked out after 6 months and tenants who destroy the place can have their dole/ wages deducted people might actually rent their houses out.

I realize that pigs will fly first!

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119266009#Comment_119266009

If they didn't do it for mortgage holders after the crash, there is no chance they would have done it for tenants.

But it is a defined policy of the government to not make it easy to remove non-paying tenants/mortgage holders (ironically they blame the non-government parties), as well as tilting the pendelum too much in favour of big, faceless corporates instead of the small landlord who is the bread and butter of the rental market; vastly outnumbering the faceless corporate and yet the market is not geared in their favour. It's too late for FF and FG at this point, now we just have to wait for the inevitable SF and friends to come in and give it a go; the question is how extreme they will be or if they will slot into the "tinkering around the edges" approach of successive FF/FG governments. Funnily enough, I think a reasonably solid property investment would be found in the North right now, with the idea that in 10 years we will be a lot closer to a united Ireland. Property prices up North have scope to increase for sure.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119265916#Comment_119265916

It feels like forever for me too, don't worry. Just to note; our rent will likely increase by 20-30% as a result of moving but salaries after tax will increase by 100%. In a similar manner, a German friend of ours recently left Ireland (MNC facilitated a transfer) to move back to Germany; slightly higher salary but half the rent of a studio in Dublin for a 2 bedroom city centre apartment in Stuttgart. As I said, Ireland is a basket case and when the Budget and winter come around it will be bleak here with poor reliefs in the Budget and costs of food and energy in particular biting.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119266087#Comment_119266087

and what are prices of property to buy in Switzerland v Ireland? Just to get the full picture

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119266480#Comment_119266480

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss-property-market-faces-bleak-future-despite-record-values/47502740

Could change Switzerland for Ireland in every sentence of that article

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119266480#Comment_119266480

Apples and oranges; in Switzerland it's only around 40% of people that own their own home. It just isn't necessary nor the most popular option for people for their housing needs. At the moment it looks like the average fixed rate on offer is 1.4-1.8% for 15 - 20 years. However to buy a place, it would cost double what it costs in Ireland.

For renting however, it is a different story altogether. Numbeo.com from my reading is quite accurate for Dublin and from what I've seen on Zurich rental websites the last few months. Rents are 7-15% cheaper in and around Dublin than in and around Zurich. But then the difference in salaries makes Zurich far more affordable with the typical Swiss salary after tax a whopping 2.2 times higher over there than in Ireland.

Even looking at Stuttgart on Numbeo; after tax salaries are 9% lower in Dublin than Stuttgart but rents are 80-100% higher in Dublin!

As I said, the squeeze on "those who get up in the morning" will get worse in Ireland so emigrating is the best thing to do before the government meddle even more and make things worse for working renters.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119266886#Comment_119266886

It’s not Apple and oranges because you continue to rent and get older and once your over 35 it means that the maximum term of a mortgage gets shorter each year which results in it becoming harder and harder to get on property ladder resulting in needing to rent in retirement which means you need to put more away in your pension to cover the cost.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119267048#Comment_119267048

But you don't need to get on the property ladder. In Ireland it is the only way to guarantee financial security into the future but considering younger people are now at the point of having little chance of owning a home in their lifetime, they are going to in abject poverty when they retire because rents are so high compared to salaries in this country that people who rent cannot put enough cash aside to cover themselves through retirement.

In Switzerland you can buy a home for wealth but you can also save, invest etc. and then downsize when you're older (something that Ireland desperately needs old people in houses far larger than they need to do if it is to eventually have some semblance of a functioning housing market) - when renting, you would stay long term and can renovate the rental generally as you see fit, owning the place isn't such a necessity.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119267172#Comment_119267172

if you need to save to pay rent in retirement how much better off are?

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119267355#Comment_119267355

I mean, personally, we will likely retire to the German or Austrian alps where the cost of living is far lower than in Switzerland but it won't be for 30 or so years. Our monthly savings will treble once we move over so we should be fine. In any event, even staying in Switzerland, a good pension should cover your rent and living expenses through retirement.

In this country, where home ownership is now a pipe dream for many, and going to get worse, what is the plan for retirement for a generation of lifelong renters? There doesn't seem to be one at this stage, though a meaningful property tax on property owners now could be used to build up retirement rental communities for these renters if a government was ambitious enough.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119267385#Comment_119267385

A defined benefit pension might but they are few and far between… I’m not to sure a standard pension would cover your rent in the future especially not if inflation is over 2% and pension is capped

combat14

September budget under discussion as Government faces pressure from Opposition over growing cost-of-living crisis

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2022/06/30/budget-could-be-brought-forward-by-up-to-a-month/

talks of the government bringing forward the budget by a month to September .. shows the kind of pressure many people are facing and the optics of government delay in taking action wont go down well...

this winter will be very tough for many people no wonder we are starting to see a significant increase in houses for sale before the real economic trouble starts..

2lazytogetup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119266672#Comment_119266672

no you couldnt. land values are different. we had property crash in 2008, switzerland didnt. we dont rely nearly as much on russian gas.

Villa05

The figures are a bit troubling considering we would have a far higher proportion of older households mortgage free in comparison to other EU countries

Ireland has the second highest rate of rent and mortgage arrears in the EU as the gap between income and living costs continues to fuel rising indebtedness, a new report on housing exclusion has said.

Data across the EU27 shows 8 per cent of Irish households were in arrears on debt, up 36 per cent between 2019 and second only to Greece.

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/housing-planning/2022/06/30/ireland-has-second-highest-level-of-rent-and-mortgage-arrears-in-eu-report-finds/

Villa05

USA GDP revised down for the first quarter, wonder are they adjusting to lift the 2nd quarter to avoid it being declared a recession this early