Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119326756#Comment_119326756

What was the ball park figure you went sale agreed on? Reason I ask is that it gives context.

€100k on €500k is a 20% reduction which I would view as taking the mickey.

€100k on a €1.2m is only an 8.3% drop which may be worth a hit in order to save a sale.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119327460#Comment_119327460

Was just about to ask the same thing. €100k is meaningless without knowing the sale agreed price

Blub123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119327460#Comment_119327460

€100k on €500k is a 20% reduction which I would view as taking the mickey. .....spot on......WERE YOU IN MY HOUSE RECENTLY???? ..ah if I cant laugh at the situation I'll go mad🙄

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119327575#Comment_119327575

These sorts of buyers are just a massive pain in the hoop, they are delusional time wasters.

I assume you've already told them to PFO. 😊

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119327448#Comment_119327448

Most of that extra supply is small LL's exiting the rental market. When there go either are gone. Totally different properties m, most rentals will need refurbishment, some a major refurb. If you show weakness to a shower of sh!ts like this you might as well throw your had at it.

Bet they come back with there tails between there legs

mcsean2163

Maybe bass is right. It depends on whether you want to teach the buyer a lesson or sell your house.

Just saw this today.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-willows-old-long-hill-road-kilmacanogue-co-wicklow-a98-yr26/4614154

bungalow, long way from anywhere, 900k and euro collapsing. Maybe the market will keep rising?

LJ12345

I’m curious if there’s any data in relation to the upswing in houses on the market, I know people are saying it’s rentals coming on but there’s been a high number of rentals coming to market for some time and they’ve been hoovered up. I’m guessing this isn’t the whole story. Anyone know the levels of buying still from local authorities and if funds are backing off like they are in the US? Funds I’d guess borrow money to purchase and if it’s a US fund borrowing at US interest rates that would have stopped them in their tracks or do they just borrow elsewhere. I suspect bonds are becoming a more attractive proposition to them than housing at the moment.

There is so much going on at the moment, euro is weakening, cheaper to buy with USD if they’re still buying from US currency.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119328830#Comment_119328830

The main source of funding for the funds is from investors with a small portion borrowed from banks. Where the slow down in funds buying property will come from is due to investors being able to get a better return elsewhere due to rising rates.

Irish property is still attractive as you have guaranteed cash flow that is linked to inflation thanks to government 25 year leases and extremely high demand due to the housing crisis and not to mention that you have a floor on rents thanks to RPZ

LJ12345

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119328899#Comment_119328899

i hear you, although rents are capped at 2% so it might impact investor sentiment towards housing if inflation continues the way its going.

I’m Conscious that Investors have been hit badly with the stock markets too, are they not likely to flow to a safer haven than housing which at some stage is likely to be the next domino to fall.

i guess at this stage until the current sales data flows through to the ppr the only ones that know the shifting market conditions are estate agents and builders.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119329292#Comment_119329292

It’s not capped on new builds which is where the funds are investing.

you also forget that property is a hedge against inflation which will attract investors looking to hedge risk. You also assume that house prices will drop despite the fact that less new property will hit the market due to increasing costs and the fact that we have returned to a high net immigration figure which ensures a steady demand.

As I have said before real house prices ( inflation adjusted) may drop but it is unlikely that nominal values will drop as long as inflation remains high.

LJ12345

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119329458#Comment_119329458

I’m making no assumptions, we can only comment on what we see due to lack of ‘current’ data... there’s an increase in second hand properties coming to the market or sitting on the market so there’s a shift there. The reason for the shift is yet unclear. I’d also add that I wouldn’t trust the building trade comments in any way, it’s just as likely they can’t sell the properties as it is they can’t build for the price they want, either way they’re recording massive profits so something isn’t right. Also some raw material prices are dropping and if there’s a slowdown globally as many anticipate our globally purchased raw materials will no longer face the same demand and price deflation should kick in, the question is would builders then lower their asking prices and start to build.

Also notable is that adverts for new builds are listed as one ad for multiple units... so we have no idea of the numbers of actual units for sale currently.

Edit: anecdotally from younger family members I’m hearing many of our younger, well educated are leaving the country, immigration v’s emigration. We don’t know yet but is the education status of our immigrants what the country needs, can they afford the rents, the house prices. Will we lose some MNC jobs because they can’t find staff. There’s a lot of unknowns.

Relax brah

Got a notice of rent increase today from landlord.

Back dated 4 years @ 2% increase per annum making it 8%. Abit deflating, I cannot afford a house and there are job lay offs in my company :(

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119329562#Comment_119329562

the building cost data is published by the cso and doesn’t come from the building trade. One of the biggest drivers besides energy costs feeding into material costs will be wage inflation to offset the increases in cost of living which will drive costs up.

you talk about deflation and prices dropping but if there is deflation in the economy the central banks will be forced to cut rates or undertake more QE which won’t result in lower property prices.

Likewise what does it matter if there is only one advertisement for new builds. The data is freely available on the CSO website each month which shows the numbers of new builds and the type of buyer that bought them. And before you say it takes time for sales to go through to be seen in the data the cso have the option of filing date or execution in their data so you can see both.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119329566#Comment_119329566

That sucks and shouldn’t be allowed and makes a mockery of the 2% cap

LJ12345

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119329624#Comment_119329624

Building costs are still disconnected to builders profit margin. They clearly can afford to build as they’re making huge profits. From what you’re saying it sounds like builders are holding off on building so they can tap into higher wages next year alongside lower building costs.

The economy has been on life support since 2008, if they don’t temper inflation we’re heading for a bigger crash down the line. The US is showing us inflation won’t go away by itself and the ECB has its hands tied and is holding off for as long as possible, there’s a good chance Europe will be in for a short sharp shock (hopefully we can avoid a long protracted one)

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119329730#Comment_119329730

Your making little sense one minute your saying there will be deflation in the economy and the other your saying that central banks need to fight inflation. Which is it we will see inflation or deflation?

why would a developer want a higher wage bill next year? Your logic doesn’t stack up

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119327142#Comment_119327142

How do you know? Maybe he wanted to get an exemption of 4.5 times income and the bank looked at the property and said no.

Agreed, its probably the buyer looking for an excuse to not go ahead with the sale, but Irish banks sometimes don't play ball.

iColdFusion

Richmond Rise in Glamire outside Cork City

Phase 2 was May this year

Phase 3 just released today

Ouch for houses that were already pretty expensive as there isn't much in that area and still a 15min drive into Cork city

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330823#Comment_119330823

He have the exemption on place before he bid. Banks do not value properties and then pull exemptions. Maybe the exemption lapsed but it looks more like Dad came along and said property is going to drop by 15-20% so drop your price.

You has similar thinking at the start of COVID that the sky would fall in. I cannot see it happening. I can see a slight price correction but it will be short llived

Icantthinkof1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119329566#Comment_119329566

Please contact Threshold for advice and make sure this is increase in your rent is legal before you agree to anything with the landlord

LJ12345

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119329750#Comment_119329750

I made it quite clear it’s very uncertain, I’m trying to understand what is happening currently as this is what can dictate the actions taken by those in power in this overly manipulated market and will lead to the future market trajectory. Anyone claiming to know what will happen has their own agenda and in fairness we all have one of those. My concern at a higher level is at some stage in the near future we get a version of the GFC with inflation. It would be crippling.

*inflation leads to deflation unless wages keep pace

AySeeDoubleYeh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331019#Comment_119331019

Vast majority of banks do not grant up front exemptions, you need to go sale agreed before you can request it.

it's farcical, but that's the way it is at the moment - so it is absolutely possible that the buyer was denied an exemption as banks can only have exemptions for something like 10% of book

chops018

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330891#Comment_119330891

It's usually always the case in new developments that there are price increases for further phases.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331159#Comment_119331159

Wonder what the shared equity ceilings are for that area. Just saying!

drogon.

Do people really think that renting is a golden goose that will continue to give great rewards forever ? My gut tells me it isn’t sustainable. The average rent in Dublin is about €2.5k to €3k, even if you are on 60K a year.. your take home pay is only circa €3.5k (https://salaryaftertax.com/ie/salary-calculator) and this would be considered a good salary too !

1 - So either we are going full American, and have everyone working two jobs to put a roof over our head.

2 - Have the government use tax payers money to subsides all rental accommodation.

3 - Have a system of slum landlords, where you have 3~4 families living in one house

Again 60K is a good salary to be on, but once the tax man takes his cut there is nothing left after your rent is payed/

Galwayhurl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330891#Comment_119330891

Think that's bad?

A 2 bed new build in Beaulieu Village Drogheda a year ago was 229k.

Now? 299k. For a 2 bed the wrong side of Drogheda (for commuting to Dublin).

31% in a year.

Mic 1972

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119329566#Comment_119329566

I guess it depends on what the starting rent was. In many cases - it may not be your case - the initial rent is significantly lower than current market

SummerK

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119330891#Comment_119330891

395k and just one Bathroom (I know there's WC on the ground floor). They were at 370K when a friend enquired last month and he did not buy it due to the bathroom issue. Price increase of 25K or a 7% hike in a couple of months just goes to show that the new first home scheme has already started pushing prices upwards. I see others increasing significantly in the coming days.

Probably then the minister will increase HTB to 50K and we will start seeing 3 Bed semi starting for half a million in Cork (they will increase the ceiling for HTB). Great progress I would say.

Blub123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119327811#Comment_119327811

further development here -- new bid came in from a new bidder at €X, not a million miles from the sale agreed price .... and the twat who messed me about has countered same with €X plus 1K.

I'm toying with getting the estate agent to notify the twat that I wont entertain any bids from him unless he pays a premium of €15K above the current bid given the lack of professionalism and lack of trust around his behaviour to date. ...which would leave it just short of what we initially went sale agreed on.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119331949#Comment_119331949

That you tack. Even go so far as you will entertain o bid from him less than the original agreed price. He wants the house it seems let him bid against himself