Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119390309#Comment_119390309

To be clear, in an effort to fix the housing crisis, you want to make it more expensive for developers to build, and, stop MNCs coming here, thus reducing jobs, pay and income earned by those who benefit from the MNCs wage spend?

Give your head a wobble.

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119390714#Comment_119390714

Typical FF/FG talking point that. If the MNC starts leaving everyone will have a smaller cake, which is true. 

But it all depends on how you look at it, if you get a larger slice of cake at the moment, a 20% reduction will hit you more than those with a smaller slice of cake to being with or even better still, those that don't have any cake.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119389365#Comment_119389365

its developers that are putting projects on hold rather than builders if it’s not profitable to build at the moment. Doesn’t happen over night and probably would not impact builders for 9-12 months until the projects they are working on get completed but will constrain supply 2 years down the road.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119390787#Comment_119390787

if only it was that simple and everyone got hit equally with a 20% hit. In reality it will be workers that provide services and goods to people working in MNC’s whether directly or indirectly that would be hit the hardest. It always surprise me when people assume that they won’t be impacted personally by a downturn and will benefit from cheaper houses. Then when taxes have to increase due to a fall in tax receipts it’s the government’s fault and not related to the downturn in the economy not to mention if overtime dries up or hours get cut, smaller bonuses or none at all or at worse loose their job or business.

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119392413#Comment_119392413

What is the point in have overly inflated GDP figures, thanks to these MNC and yet it’s citizen can’t put a roof over their head.

While at the same time these companies are making record profits, CEOs are paid 100x more than their employees.

A health market is meant to work for everybody, not just those who where fortunate enough to buy.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119392566#Comment_119392566

Because those MNCs employ people here (275k in 2021), and their high wages spend (payroll spend was 16.8B in 2020) have a huge positive affect both directly, and indirectly on other jobs/the economy.

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119392575#Comment_119392575

Sounds like you were fortunate enough to buy a house. But keep telling that to those who are struggling to pay the 1.5K or over 50% of their salary in rent.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119390787#Comment_119390787

Your grasp of economics is shocking. First of all you would never see an access the board linear cut.

If you got a 20%cut it would be due to a sectoral collapse in one area maybe hitting the Google's and Facebook type companies, a shock to the pharma sector, a shock to the software development sector or to the hardware sector.

It could decimate Dublin City center or cities like Cork Limerick or Galway while leaving the rest of the county minimally effected.

This would then hit government tax receipts from MNC by maybe much more than 25% as well as PAYE and Vat receipt. Road building and publicly works ( hospitals and schools) would slow down and maybe stop.

Government would look to replace the missing tax base by higher taxes and Vat. But because we are already highly taxed in the middle and upper tiers you would see if extra charges and levies

In the region's most effected you see the closure pubs, restaurants etc. Logistics companies and couriers would downsize dramatically. Car sales dropping significantly electrical goods erc

Next the workers in these area would start to look for jobs in the area's not effected putting more pressure on housing and wages in these areas. Because of the pressure on housing many would commute or only stay during the week.

After the building collapse in 2009/10 I knew a good few locally that were in similar situations. One lad stayed in Dublin Monday to Thursday. He was all WFH Friday. Another lad commuted a 3 hour return journey every day to a fairy average job.

And at the end of the day houses would be no cheaper in 90% of the country

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119392785#Comment_119392785

I agree, but what are the ordinary citizens to do when they have nothing else to loose. Their circumstances are terrible at the moment, when times are supposed to be good.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119392785#Comment_119392785

Would all the same arguments hold true if citizens had affordable (not free or unprofitable) housing. The path to economic stability and sustainability is not just good jobs. The outgoings are just as important as the incomes

Housing and the economy should work in sync benefiting each other, not with one a parasite on the other.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119392683#Comment_119392683

You have no idea of my personal circumstances nor do I of yours. I am just pointing out that a downturn doesn’t impact everyone the same way and if MNC’s lost jobs it would also be felt by people not working In Them. Whether it be increase in tax or a slow down at work

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119393980#Comment_119393980

Surely the rise in property prices is also linked in no small part to the increasing number of well paying jobs in Ireland and full employment. Housing has synced to the point that those that are well paid can obviously buy more expensive houses. There may well be a growing disparity between the tech/pharma pay and other jobs, which allows them more buying power, but I don’t think eradicating those jobs is going to make life easier for you.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119392397#Comment_119392397

Which was the point of the original article, when developers are stopping, Gov be ready with shovel ready projects when builders are idle

It's also important to understand why projects are potentially put on hold. Cian o Callaghan explains it well below on Pat Kenny

Basically lobbyists are campaigning for lower standards on the promise of cheaper housing, then developers are submitting planning with more units, they then flip the land at a much higher price resulting in lower standards leading to higher prices.

All the main lobbyists are former ffg politicians for developers, banks, investment funds and landowners

It's also notable that raw materials have collapsed in price over the past 4 to 6 weeks in anticipation of recession

https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/highlights-from-the-pat-kenny-show/dublin-city-council-has-leased-48-times-more-houses-than-it-has-bought-this-year

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119394163#Comment_119394163

When it's conservatively only the top 30% that can afford to buy and the remainder are pushed into the much more expensive rental sector, the market is broken and a parasite on the economy

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119393980#Comment_119393980

And how do you intend to regulate house prices. Who decides what is a fair price. Not all houses that are sold are build, you have houses in different conditions for sale, some need as much or more than what they are paid for in upgrades

If tomorrow morning we decided that there was a housing agency that would decide on a maximum price for all houses. What would happen. Money would be handed under the table and only benefit those that had money left over after the deposit.

At present on one off houses there is massive resistance to present building costs. I know of houses that have come to a full stop at wallpaper level. Houses with windows installed and have come to a complete stop. A plumber said he had 10 houses where the preliminary pipe work was complete and the building have stopped. Similar I have heard of electricians who have multiple houses chased and the complete job has stopped.

Unfortunately our build costs due to regulation, energy rating and size in many cases have become unaffordable. Materials have escalated in price exponentially. Some of this is due to supply, some due to increased supplier margin. Labour has increased exponentially as well.

Twenty years ago planning and development costs were about 2-3k for a one off houses. Now it's nearer 15k. And you chance of getting planning is 20-40% less. The real cost when everything is factored in is nearer 25k

mcsean2163

If you are approaching 40, working in a good job but unable to afford to move out of your parents home or if you are working married with kids, renting and about to be evicted into homelessness what does it matter how the MNC sector is doing?

It's probably better for people in those situations if the government defaults on its debt obligations and MNCs exit. The resulting emigration might mean that the dispossessed get a stake in society.

I know people in those situations. They haven't given up and are fighting to exist but realistically, an economic collapse would probably be hugely in their favour. That's the society we live in and the issue drogon is highlighting I think.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366581#Comment_119366581

its fair to say the estate agents involved should have a decent handle on prices in galway, its also fair to say that someone looking to build something similar, if they could get planning wont have much change from the asking price. Be interesting to see what they go for, they do seem toppy but i have given up being surprised at the prices paid (for new builds especially).

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119394239#Comment_119394239

That makes absolutely no sense.

Full employment and high paying jobs in the market are what economies strive for, the fact that house building has not kept pace can hardly be described as parasitic.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119394761#Comment_119394761

So they want the Government to default, accept the implications that would have on our economy, other people to lose their jobs and emigrate, so that they can afford a house?

Why don’t they emigrate instead?

AySeeDoubleYeh

What happens if all the under 40s emigrate, Dave?

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119395205#Comment_119395205

They won’t.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119395278#Comment_119395278

Well just anecdotal but the club I play ball with has seen 4 lads leaving for Canada, US and 2 to Oz in the last month, this has not happened for years mainly due to covid, 3 out of the 4 have said they don't intend on coming back either.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119395307#Comment_119395307

Twas ever thus, people emigrate if they can’t get what they want here.

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119395307#Comment_119395307

I fail to see the logic in people leaving due to the Irish housing crisis and moving to...Australia or Canada

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119395393#Comment_119395393

Well could it be that they might be able to afford to buy a house in the future in a different country, I dont know just saying what I see on the ground and wondering if anyone else is seeing a similar pattern.A agree with Dav people always head off for the year or so but its the first time I heard lads saying they wont be back.

AySeeDoubleYeh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119395393#Comment_119395393

Agreed, but I also know people who have done this, specifically to Canada. And while I wouldn't move to those countries myself, what reason do people have to stay here?

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119395188#Comment_119395188

Sounds like something the British said to the Irish in Leinster 😂😂

Maybe James Larkin should have just emigrated. You must be having a laugh.

Why do you think people should just accept being forced out of their country?

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119395393#Comment_119395393

Coal mines in Aus booming at the minute with General operatives getting 150,000 Aus dollars basic pay. Few buddies I know gone put there crazy how things go there were nearly winding them down a few years ago now putin tightening the gas has meant more coal power stations back in use

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119395703#Comment_119395703

Your path to owning a house isn’t being hindered by a colonial power, it is by your fellow countrymen and women who can afford to pay more for a limited resource. And before you equate foreign investment funds with invading Brits, I think I am right in saying the State is the largest purchaser of property in this country, the amount bought by VF is much less than domestic buyers.

If you can’t have the life you want where you want it, broaden your search, you won’t be the first, nor the last to do so.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119395838#Comment_119395838

The only problem with laissez faire model is that it breaks down trust in the democratic system, and then you get a protectionist groundswell.