Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119465347#Comment_119465347

Basic need, but not an entitlement. If a buyer chooses to sign up to a shared equity scheme which helps them buy a home, then it can hardly be classified as the Government heaping a debt on them.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119465307#Comment_119465307

rte radio 1 interview today about 6pm

jo187

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119464953#Comment_119464953

So which left wing party is to blame? As you stated in your original post

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119465674#Comment_119465674

Think you are quoting the wrong poster.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119465347#Comment_119465347

If Mary and Joe voluntarily take advantage of a shared equity scheme that helps them buy a home, then that is their choice. Those that avail of it may not be able to buy otherwise.

Why have you an issue with it? The people who avail of it are not required to do so, it is therefore hardly a debt heaped on them.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119463216#Comment_119463216

How many countries have taxation and procedural regimes that encourage land and housing wastage?

Are we one of the most underdeveloped developed nations in the world leaving significant buffers to sort it out in comparison to other nations?

Could we not improve security of tenure with a mechanism that secured payment to landlords.

It has been official government policy to discourage small private landlords for over a decade. Its been a disaster especially for the regional cities and large towns

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119464159#Comment_119464159

We are on course for 300k new pps numbers being issued this year, 3/4 of them are for foreigners coming in. Hard to imagine prices coming down when so many extra people are living here- quite the opposite. Maybe that's the plan!

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119464159#Comment_119464159

Most people are priced out, therefore waiting or getting out is the only option.

If a disinflationary, falling interest rates, quantitative easing environment sends prices to the moon would reversing all these conditions also send prices to Mars

Maybe its true 'House prices only go up"

Interesting that Glenveigh are seeing signs of cold feet from investment funds hence the lobbying for regulations that reduce cost and product that appeals to ftb (own door non apartment)

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119466887#Comment_119466887

Of the economy flips and you gave a price crash will we see similar to 2010-14 where lending is hard to obtain. The ICS move is interesting in this while it's only low scale will lenders look for borrowers to have larger deposits. This would lock some people out of borrowing, it would drop house to an extent however builders would stop building again. Cash buyers and investors would again be king.

Just as an aside to show the problem of costs to builders. At present a meter of concrete is about 130-140 euro. Over thirty of that is made up of the effect of carbon tax. I am not sure if part of that is the CT on fuel for transportation as well. There is another 10 euro being added before the end of the year it's unlikely the concrete industry will absorb all of that. CT is adding cost everywhere. It's not a benign tax.

People have to understand the cause and effect. As well houses build nowadays are front loading some future running costs into the house costs in energy savings. However these products are probably effected by carbon tax as well

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119466848#Comment_119466848

That seems high, do you have a source?

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119467407#Comment_119467407

ICS can only write so many mortgages and are constrained by the size of their Balance sheet. They either get a capital injection from parent or investors to be able to write more mortgages or maintain the current size of their mortgage book. They seem to have opted for the second option and it probably makes financial sense not because they don’t want new business but unlike AIB BOI or PTSB they are reliant on the capital markets for funding whereas the other Irish banks can lend from their deposit book. There will be no slow down in lending by the Irish banks as for the first time in years they can start making proper money now that the don’t have negative interest rates eroding earnings and capital.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119468731#Comment_119468731

https://assets.gov.ie/231271/d46fb241-9fa1-40b6-b010-dd8bdd0577cb.pdf

that’s the data for first 7 months of 2022

a total of 183k pps no’s issued of which only 41k were Irish. Also worth nothing 46k we’re to Ukrainian’s which leaves 96k to other nationalities.

so if you assumed that 2.8 people per house you need 50k additional houses just for the numbers for the first 7 months. Assuming there was zero emigration at the same time.

whatever way you look at it we are not building enough housing so can’t see house prices falling with such strong demand.

Villa05

Do asylum seekers get pps numbers

What ever about house prices, you could see the country falling?

Timing belt

Everyone needs a ppsn. Children, babies, EU citizens relocating, foreign students, non EU people on work visas, asylum seekers.

The majority or the 183k will be working and paying taxes the same as everyone else in Ireland.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119470963#Comment_119470963

Wives with “W” PPS numbers also have to apply for a new number if they want numbers which are separate from their husbands.

almostover

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119470963#Comment_119470963

The majority of decent Irish people have no issue with inward migration. People of other nationalities have enriched our culture and for the most part it's been very positive. The issue now being faced is that the countries' infrastructure is at breaking point and simply cannot support an ever increasing population. There have been a number of high profile job announcements from large MNCs over the last couple of weeks, one of whom I work for. It's been lauded by politicians as a big success story, which it is to a point. Everyone likes to see inward investment in high tech industry creating high end jobs. But the people who fill these jobs will primarily be inward migrants. Again not a negative thing as most will be highly educated and will integrate well into society here. The issue is there will be a severe lack of suitable housing for them and these industrial developments will put further strain on our energy system and will add further to Ireland's environmental woes. The same week there was 600 new jobs announced over the next 3-5 years at my company there was an internal email sent out pleading for people to rent out rooms in their houses to the incoming people on our graduate program which kicks off next month. There is a serious lack of joined up thinking in the upper echelons of political life in Ireland. We have record low unemployment but we continue to laud the funneling of corporate profit through Ireland, jobs which have to be filled by migrant workers, all while our housing system is broken and our energy infrastructure is creaking. Something is going to give soon and it ain't going to be pretty.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119471079#Comment_119471079

I’m not commenting on immigration all I’m highlighting is that demand for housing is still strong and doesn’t look like easing anytime soon and as a result I don’t see house prices dropping anytime soon

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119465469#Comment_119465469

They would be included in the 41k Irish ppsn numbers

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119470963#Comment_119470963

I acknowledge that, you'd think there would be some sort of plan from those issuing the ppsn to have sufficient housing and energy to support such increases. Our economy is similar to the US, they are frantically implementing measures to prevent overheating

Most policy here at the moment appears to be the opposite.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119471591#Comment_119471591

What policies are the USA implementing besides raising rates.. that won’t solve the housing crisis in Ireland if ECB did the same. The simple fact is we don’t have enough housing and don’t have resources to build more thank 30k a year so unless that changes or there is mass immigration there is going to always be a shortage in the short to mid term.

ittakestwo

Even tho I have a house this country is **** disgrace. I am voting SF or any party that will actively destroy the economy.

The economy is creating thousands of jobs and there is not restirction on immigration which is leading to the crises.

Higgins is right. The country absolute shambles despite what some invested geek in a shiny suit says when quoting GDP figures.

drogon.

Saw this the other day, we seems to have a cyclical pattern with housing. This time won't be any different.

https://i.imgur.com/ZV1Y7H3.jpeg

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119471774#Comment_119471774

Brilliant post, the only difference appears to be the damage caused increases in each cycle

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119471650#Comment_119471650

They are engineering a recession, they must see that having a recession now is more beneficial than continuing to blow up the bubble and the extent of the damage that would cause.

Is there opportunity to take advantage of a global slowdown?

We don't seem to have any issues getting people in from abroad, why not get construction workers from the UK and elsewhere, reap the benefits of reduced Material cost and lowering demand for housing that recessions bring. Get the supply/demand to equilibrium and keep it there.

Increased construction activity cushions Ireland from the recession and helps our infrastructure deficit for the recovery

Where the plan? It won't happen with this government

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119471907#Comment_119471907

They are not engineering a recession they are raising rates to fight inflation. Did you see the job numbers for USA? The global slow down is due to USA raising rates as the dollar gets stronger as a result and which means that petrol prices rise in most countries even if the price of oil remained constant…The same applies for any commodity prices in USD. So you might look and see a fall in commodities and think it’s cheaper to build but it a country is importing materials they may not see a price drop due to the strength of the USD

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119471675#Comment_119471675

You want the economy to be destroyed?

Are you 12? Mummy and Daddy losing their job and shops having to close will not mean you will be able to buy more lollipops.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119472006#Comment_119472006

Recessions tame inflation,

raising rates cools economies

US jobs up GDP down more workers less output. Big problem

Europe in trouble due to energy crisis difference in us and European gas prices plus fears of sufficient supply

China covid and housing crash. Tanks back on the streets to quell demonstrators wishing to make bank withdrawals

dontmindme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119465469#Comment_119465469

eh...who introduced and is running the scheme? What has been the forecasted and real effects on house prices since it's introduction?

What has been the effect of the availability of this scheme to a desperate prospective house buyer, as regards their debt burden?

Rather than do anything to effect a decrease in house prices. the government instead introduce a scheme that fuels further price increase at the expense of heaping more debt onto the shoulders of any participant. What point are you disagreeing with?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119472106#Comment_119472106

The only parties with a history of destroying the economy currently hold power.

Wallis, Evans, Debenhams, home base, smyths, argos, just some of the names that have closed stores in town in the last couple of years. High property prices a huge factor in their closure. Units remain empty.

There are many ways to destroy an economy. Do you support high property prices destroying an economy?

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119472506#Comment_119472506

The basic assertion that an agreement entered into voluntarily, to help a buyer purchase a house, could be considered the government “heaping debt” on them. Is that not obvious to you?

There is no obligation to avail of the scheme.