Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

As Clare TD, Michael McNamara, said over the weekend on the potential impact on the commercial and residential space in our cities from these global tax changes:

“Now, most multinationals, particularly in the tech sector, hire in from abroad. In the past year, many of those workers have been working from their homes all over the world. But for tax reasons, the tech corporations and Irish Revenue Commissioners all pretend they’re still in the empty office and apartment blocks in the Dockhands.“

There now appears to be a genuine fear from at least some TD's in relation to future multinational policy on where they will be able to allow these workers to work in the future. I guess we should know a bit more from September this year.

He also compared the ministers to acting like Comical Ali by adding the global tax reforms may impact our ability to keep borrowing in the future and how our artificial GDP figures makes our borrowing look sustainable:

"There’s much talk about a €2bn reduction in our tax take, and that this has been foreseen for some time. Another, potentially bigger problem will be the impact on our GDP figure which for several years has been inflated by profits channelled through Ireland for corporation tax reasons.”

Basically, he's saying that our borrowings only looks sustainable based on a GDP metric that is artificial and this can change significantly at very short notice.

There must be some serious discussions taking place at the moment on how expensive HAP, long-term lease etc. are and if there are viable alternatives. If there aren't serious discussions taking place, there's something seriously wrong at a higher government level.

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/higher-taxes-in-other-areas-to-make-up-for-shortfall-in-corporation-tax-green-leader-eamon-ryan-admits-40507583.html

Regarding multinationals pretending that employees are based in Ireland while they are working from other location.
These companies are still paying tax in Ireland, their employees are also still being taxed in Ireland.
This is a legal issue and has nothing to do with future trends. These companies just need to clean up their act and implement HR policies to address this internally.
The article is also very vague about it, it might just be just anecdotal

Amadan Dubh

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

This is a bit naive. Long term leasing to the council provides income for 20 years plus and is "relatively risk free", the article is practically saying "free money". This is property we are talking about and the situation in Ireland is that we have an absolutely devastating, extreme emergency where a dramatic shift in government policy is necessary in order to cool it. Yet, apparently at the top of the market, with no where further to climb, the IT is claiming that individuals could invest in this "relatively risk free" investment with their pensions!

There is huge need for social housing, today, not in the two years it will take to build or the time taken to accumulate the tens/hundreds of millions the Government would need to build/buy the necessary properties. It is naive, even grossly stupid to think that private investors would invest in properties which would be used to help alleviate the problem without some incentive or surety of returns. We need social housing, the private sector is in a position to provide the capital to buy the property and lease it for immediate use, but you think those incentives should not be there?

Also, rental income is not “risk free money”, or “free money” it never has been. The property owner invests a large amount of money in the property, and is paid for the use of that property. That is not free.

Amadan Dubh

Dav010 wrote: »

There is huge need for social housing, today, not in the two years it will take to build or the time taken to accumulate the tens/hundreds of millions the Government would need to build/buy the necessary properties. It is naive, even grossly stupid to think that private investors would invest in properties which would be used to help alleviate the problem without some incentive or surety of returns. We need social housing, the private sector is in a position to provide the capital to buy the property and lease it for immediate use, but you think those incentives should not be there?

This social housing policy has formed part of a host of policies which have together squeezed private market supply which has inflated the housing market into a massive bubble.

The biggest questions are;

(1) where the heck is the money coming from to raise the €1bn+ p.a. cost?

(2) a more fundamental question of "how is social housing demand going to continue to rise?". What happens during hysterical market conditions is that for investors the only way is up and the sky is the limit. They only see security and perpetual demand. It has a pyramid scheme feel to it, requiring a constant stream of social housing tenants. But no one seems to be saying "a meaningful dent in the housing crisis like the State building its own properties kills further social housing demand, but surely the State won't do that?".

Cal4567

Dav010 wrote: »

There is huge need for social housing, today, not in the two years it will take to build or the time taken to accumulate the tens/hundreds of millions the Government would need to build/buy the necessary properties. It is naive, even grossly stupid to think that private investors would invest in properties which would be used to help alleviate the problem without some incentive or surety of returns. We need social housing, the private sector is in a position to provide the capital to buy the property and lease it for immediate use, but you think those incentives should not be there?

Also, rental income is not “risk free money”, or “free money” it never has been. The property owner invests a large amount of money in the property, and is paid for the use of that property. That is not free.

I thought we had been over this point. It is the long term cost to the State, never ending if we keep on leasing. It just puts the 'investor' ahead of the obligations of the State and the housing needs of its citizens. Please god we can just vote out these FFG neoliberal idiots at the next opportunity. No doubt you will come back with the argument that it benefits all our pension funds etc etc. Please don't.

Villa05

Dav010 wrote:

Also, rental income is not “risk free moneyâ€, or “free money†it never has been. The property owner invests a large amount of money in the property, and is paid for the use of that property. That is not free.

I'm not sure if you've been following the thread consistently and kept up with the terms of these leases

The properties have to be handed back to the investment funds in the same condition they were received in, so the state is even paying for normal wear and tare

0 tax

0 cost of finance

State guaranteed income

Also we have been aware of supply issues since 2013, while the state held vast amounts of property and land. Its not as if the Gov woke up this morning and discovered a housing crisis.

Much lower cost solutions have been available but we seem to be wedded to the highest cost solutions and now locking in those high cost solutions for 25 years just in time for peak health and pensions crisis

Government are incapable of running sweet shop nevermind a country

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm not sure if you've been following the thread consistently and kept up with the terms of these leases

The properties have to be handed back to the investment funds in the same condition they were received in, so the state is even paying for normal wear and tare

0 tax

0 cost of finance

State guaranteed income

Also we have been aware of supply issues since 2013, while the state held vast amounts of property and land. Its not as if the Gov woke up this morning and discovered a housing crisis.

Much lower cost solutions have been available but we seem to be wedded to the highest cost solutions and now locking in those high cost solutions for 25 years just in time for peak health and pensions crisis

Government are incapable of running sweet shop nevermind a country

Where does the additional capacity to build come from? Additional immigration? Where are they housed? People on this thread have blamed immigration for some of the problems. What about the NIMBYs? What about the incompetence of public servants? What about opposition parties proposing mythical policies that the gullible public fall for hook, line and sinker?

Villa05

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm not sure if you've been following the thread consistently and kept up with the terms of these leases

The properties have to be handed back to the investment funds in the same condition they were received in, so the state is even paying for normal wear and tare

0 tax

0 cost of finance

State guaranteed income

Also we have been aware of supply issues since 2013, while the state held vast amounts of property and land. Its not as if the Gov woke up this morning and discovered a housing crisis.

Much lower cost solutions have been available but we seem to be wedded to the highest cost solutions and now locking in those high cost solutions for 25 years just in time for peak health and pensions crisis

Government are incapable of running sweet shop nevermind a country

I swear, some of the posters here think it is a matter of conjuring up a couple of billion, buy/build wherever/whenever you like, problem solved. And worst of all, that by changing Government, suddenly everything becomes easier in relation to property issues. You are being sold a pup. The reality is that deliver much needed homes NOW, the Government, which ever party is in power, including SF, is going to have to pay, or incentivise private investors to provide the necessary property, otherwise we wait yrs for the necessary finance, planning, tenders, builds etc.

Sheeps

Dav010 wrote: »

I swear, some of the posters here think it is a matter of conjuring up a couple of billion, buy/build wherever/whenever you like, problem solved. And worst of all, that by changing Government, suddenly everything becomes easier in relation to property issues. You are being sold a pup. The reality is that deliver much needed homes NOW, the Government, which ever party is in power, including SF, is going to have to pay, or incentivise private investors to provide the necessary property, otherwise we wait yrs for the necessary finance, planning, tenders, builds etc.

There's going to be a lot of people in shock when Sinn Féin get into power and realise that their measures are woefully inadequate. Still, it'll be good to shake up the political landscape, and if you're a homeowner the value of your private home should increase.

I think we'll have major problems with the banks too. Looking at how toxic the Irish banking sector is for banks at the moment, its only going to get worse if Sinn Féin et al make it even harder than it currently is to repossess homes. Private investors will dry up. We might see the housing waiting lists drop a bit after a couple of years, maybe the homeless figures will go down, but can't see house prices and rental prices going any way but up. I don't see any hope from any of the other parties either.

Does anyone actually want to spend a quarter of a million on a house and not own the land it sits on?

mcsean2163

Dav010 wrote: »

I swear, some of the posters here think it is a matter of conjuring up a couple of billion, buy/build wherever/whenever you like, problem solved. And worst of all, that by changing Government, suddenly everything becomes easier in relation to property issues. You are being sold a pup. The reality is that deliver much needed homes NOW, the Government, which ever party is in power, including SF, is going to have to pay, or incentivise private investors to provide the necessary property, otherwise we wait yrs for the necessary finance, planning, tenders, builds etc.

They've had years and failed miserably. Nama was a total disaster. Imagine selling apartments to investors for 20% and then renting them back for full price.

The government has proved themselves massively incompetent and there is no credible alternative.

Democracy is failing...

Villa05

Dav010 wrote:

I swear, some of the posters here think it is a matter of conjuring up a couple of billion, buy/build wherever/whenever you like, problem solved. And worst of all, that by changing Government, suddenly everything becomes easier in relation to property issues. You are being sold a pup. The reality is that deliver much needed homes NOW, the Government, which ever party is in power, including SF, is going to have to pay, or incentivise private investors to provide the necessary property, otherwise we wait yrs for the necessary finance, planning, tenders, builds etc.

Our starting point at the beginning of this cycle was the biggest holder of land and property in the world. Our end point is leasing back much of that property from the entities we sold it to at peak prices and inflation linked rent for 25 years into the future at a time when inflation is forecast to be significantly high.

From 2015/2016, the nations finances were in a much healthier position plus we had the annual corporation tax boost.

If you are unable to manage that situation for the nations benefit and your job is to act in the nations interest. Your conscience alone should tell you to step down

PropQueries

Dav010 wrote: »

I swear, some of the posters here think it is a matter of conjuring up a couple of billion, buy/build wherever/whenever you like, problem solved. And worst of all, that by changing Government, suddenly everything becomes easier in relation to property issues. You are being sold a pup. The reality is that deliver much needed homes NOW, the Government, which ever party is in power, including SF, is going to have to pay, or incentivise private investors to provide the necessary property, otherwise we wait yrs for the necessary finance, planning, tenders, builds etc.

Rents are currently the highest they have ever been in the history of the state. We're told there's thousands and thousands of highly paid potential buyers waiting in the wings to buy up any new homes that are built.

What additional incentives would a developer require to get building and get building fast to grab their share of all those profits in the current market?

jill_valentine

Sheeps wrote: »

Does anyone actually want to spend a quarter of a million on a house and not own the land it sits on?

The current situation has people spending quarter of a million to own nothing at all, so perhaps so.

timmyntc

Sheeps wrote: »

Does anyone actually want to spend a quarter of a million on a house and not own the land it sits on?

You mean like the government do right now with the long term leasing?

I can't see any other situation where people spend 250k+ to "not own the land it sits on".

Mic 1972

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm not sure if you've been following the thread consistently and kept up with the terms of these leases

The properties have to be handed back to the investment funds in the same condition they were received in, so the state is even paying for normal wear and tare

0 tax

0 cost of finance

State guaranteed income

Also we have been aware of supply issues since 2013, while the state held vast amounts of property and land. Its not as if the Gov woke up this morning and discovered a housing crisis.

Much lower cost solutions have been available but we seem to be wedded to the highest cost solutions and now locking in those high cost solutions for 25 years just in time for peak health and pensions crisis

Government are incapable of running sweet shop nevermind a country

That's not entirely correct. The property is handed back to the landlord at the end of the lease in "reasonable good condition", that's very different from "same condition they were received in"

Jmc25

Dav010 wrote: »

I swear, some of the posters here think it is a matter of conjuring up a couple of billion, buy/build wherever/whenever you like, problem solved. And worst of all, that by changing Government, suddenly everything becomes easier in relation to property issues.

I agree that there's oversimplification of solving the problem. It's more complex than xx billion investment makes the problem go away. And developers have a huge role to play. And, as unpopular as I know this view is, REITs have a role to play too.

The problem though is that our current policies are geared almost entirely towards inflating prices to a point where the private sector can build houses almost risk free and walk off into the sunset with a nice profit. Examples of these policies are HTB, shared equity, tax incentives for REITs, and long term leasing. These inflate prices or remove risk for developers and institutional landlords.

To be fair to this Government/previous Governments, I would imagine they expected that these policies would already have paid dividends and we would have reached the price point where a significant number of houses were being built some time ago. I doubt it was ever the intention for these policies to lead to the current situation where rent and purchase prices are so high, and yet there's still so little being built.

I suppose the problem for the Government/anyone who believes the current model will still deliver, is that we've had so many years of this model of housing delivery that many people think there's no longer any point in a tweak here and there, and the whole model is unfit for purpose.

Amadan Dubh

The Indo with an uncharacteristically clickbaity headline saying Varadker is "pushing" for a return to offices in August.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/tanaiste-leo-varadkar-pushing-for-early-returnto-officesin-august-40513640.html

However, from actually reading the article and the quotes from Varadker, it appears he is just outlining the expectation that all covid restrictions are likely to be fully done away with in August (i.e. no masks or social distancing) meaning it would be safe to get on public transport and return to offices.

“I don’t believe workplaces are ever going to be the same after the pandemic. Many people will never return to the office full-time now that we know that home working and remote working is a viable option for most people.

“I think we are going to move to a model of blended working as the new normal and the Government will be working to facilitate that with our code of practice on the right to disconnect.

“We are also working to provide a network of remote working hubs now being built, and our new law that means employers have to give good reason for refusing a worker the opportunity for remote working.”

He added, however, that while some workers had found home working advantageous, others were losing out on interacting with colleagues or were struggling to find a suitable work space at home.

“Although we will be encouraging employers to keep remote working as a permanent option, where possible, I know some staff, particularly younger ones, have found it difficult – especially those working from home from small apartments or houses they share with others.

“While for some it’s been a pleasant experience being able to avoid the commute and have more time for family, for others it has been isolating or stressful trying to work from home and home schooling at the same time.”

Sheeps

timmyntc wrote: »

You mean like the government do right now with the long term leasing?

I can't see any other situation where people spend 250k+ to "not own the land it sits on".

No.

jill_valentine wrote: »

The current situation has people spending quarter of a million to own nothing at all, so perhaps so.

The situation will be no different when Sinn Féin are in power. That's the nature of renting, and it wont change. However, they'll change the nature of private ownership so that it becomes like renting.

Villa05

Mic 1972 wrote:

That's not entirely correct. The property is handed back to the landlord at the end of the lease in "reasonable good condition", that's very different from "same condition they were received in"

It was specifically stated on an article posted on here, if you have a link to the contrary I'd appreciate if you posted it as that would be a huge cost at the end of the lease

PropQueries

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

The Indo with an uncharacteristically clickbaity headline saying Varadker is "pushing" for a return to offices in August.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/tanaiste-leo-varadkar-pushing-for-early-returnto-officesin-august-40513640.html

However, from actually reading the article and the quotes from Varadker, it appears he is just outlining the expectation that all covid restrictions are likely to be fully done away with in August (i.e. no masks or social distancing) meaning it would be safe to get on public transport and return to offices.

It may be only dawning on him and his colleagues now that the impact of remote working on both the commercial and retail space in our cities will probably be there for all to see come September and it most likely won't be good.

But, I think that horse has bolted with AIB being the most high profile recent example of a company trying to sublet their office space in Dublin due to their planned post-covid hybrid working model of making staff work from home three days per week.

In this weeks The Economist magazine, they said that the optimism of the bulls in relation to the commercial property market "is at best deluded, at worst dishonest" as even "even small drops in occupancy rates will have a big effect on rents and prices."

Link to article on AIB office sublet due to hybrid working in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/hybrid-working-sees-ebs-dublin-headquarters-available-to-let-1.4579182

Link to article this week in The Economist on the impact of remote working on the commercial property market here: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/06/05/someone-has-to-foot-the-bill-for-empty-offices

Amadan Dubh

PropQueries wrote: »

It may be only dawning on him and his colleagues now that the impact of remote working on both the commercial and retail space in our cities will probably be there for all to see come September and it most likely won't be good.

But, I think that horse has bolted with AIB being the most high profile recent example of a company trying to sublet their office space in Dublin due to their planned post-covid hybrid working model of making staff work from home three days per week.

In this weeks The Economist magazine, they said that the optimism of the bulls in relation to the commercial property market "is at best deluded, at worst dishonest" as even "even small drops in occupancy rates will have a big effect on rents and prices."

Link to article on AIB office sublet due to hybrid working in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/hybrid-working-sees-ebs-dublin-headquarters-available-to-let-1.4579182

Link to article this week in The Economist on the impact of remote working on the commercial property market here: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/06/05/someone-has-to-foot-the-bill-for-empty-offices

IWG, the giant flexible working landlord/sub-lessor, issued a profit warning this week as it has unexpectedly not experienced a restriction-easing bounce in the UK in relation to its commercial property portfolio. This is not just a London-specific issue as it is impacting other commercial portfolios in cities outside of the UK, meaning it can be anticipated that Ireland is not immune to a similar, significant and sustained drop in demand for office space.

IWG’s business model is similar to that of rival WeWork — it leases offices from landlords, divides up the space and lets it out on shorter term, flexible contracts to a range of businesses.


WG has been hit hard by Covid-19 curbs, which have caused demand for offices to fall.

There had been early signs of a rebound at the start of the year as occupancy stabilised, prompting chief executive Mark Dixon to say “it looks like the worst is behind us”.

But in the profit warning issued on Monday, the company said the “overall improvement in occupancy across the whole group has been lower than previously anticipated as a result of the prolonged impact of Covid-19”. It highlighted the effect of continuing lockdown restrictions on office bookings, and the emergence of new variants of the virus.

Shares in the FTSE 250 company were down 15 per cent in early trading in London.

Nijmegen

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Regarding multinationals pretending that employees are based in Ireland while they are working from other location.
These companies are still paying tax in Ireland, their employees are also still being taxed in Ireland.
This is a legal issue and has nothing to do with future trends. These companies just need to clean up their act and implement HR policies to address this internally.
The article is also very vague about it, it might just be just anecdotal

This is a big and genuine risk for the future, when corp taxes will be based on where the customer is rather than where the company and its staff are based.

If I'm Google or PayPal, I'm importing thousands of workers to Ireland from lower cost places (Spain, Poland, Russian speaking countries, etc) and paying them Irish wages to pay Irish cost of living to service customers back in their homeland, so that I can say that the work is being done and therefore taxed in Ireland. If the profit is now going to be booked in their home country, I can let them live and work in that home country and pay them a commensurate wage.

The easing of the property market will at an underlying level cost us a ton in not only corp taxes, but payroll taxes and actual economic activity in the country.

I'm sure we won't lose what we have immediately (there's too much knowledge capital built up here) but when you're looking to expand your next investment into a call / sales / service center, you might think long and hard about putting it in Ireland rather than having a load of home workers or coworking centre workers in other countries, who fly in and out for training and meetings here every now and again.

Ace2007

There are other issues to consider - transfer of data offshore etc needs to be considered, would you be legally allowed to have Data going from Ireland to Russia say, or anywhere outside the EU, especially if the Irish based customer does not consent to it - what then?

Hubertj

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

IWG, the giant flexible working landlord/sub-lessor, issued a profit warning this week as it has unexpectedly not experienced a restriction-easing bounce in the UK in relation to its commercial property portfolio. This is not just a London-specific issue as it is impacting other commercial portfolios in cities outside of the UK, meaning it can be anticipated that Ireland is not immune to a similar, significant and sustained drop in demand for office space.

Would be interesting to see the occupancy rates. I think their properties in areas like city of London are probably very empty whereas properties in smaller towns and cities have a higher occupancy rate.

Nijmegen

Ace2007 wrote: »

There are other issues to consider - transfer of data offshore etc needs to be considered, would you be legally allowed to have Data going from Ireland to Russia say, or anywhere outside the EU, especially if the Irish based customer does not consent to it - what then?

You could service Russia from within the EU, from the Baltic countries. Rent in Lithuania is sub €500 per month, about a quarter what it is in Ireland. Ireland's cost of living is extremely high even by EU standards.

https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-living/index/europe

Ozark707

Ace2007 wrote: »

There are other issues to consider - transfer of data offshore etc needs to be considered, would you be legally allowed to have Data going from Ireland to Russia say, or anywhere outside the EU, especially if the Irish based customer does not consent to it - what then?

At the moment you have data from other European countries being handled here so intra EU won't be an issue. Question is whether companies will allow a Spanish person now be based in Spain (on lower wages) than here. If it works for the companies they will pursue it. I know of one particular European country where they are struggling to get people to move to Ireland for (Covid accelerated the amount of people returning home and they cannot backfill at the same rate). Eventually those companies might have to offer local employment as the work needs to be done.

yagan

Ozark707 wrote: »

At the moment you have data from other European countries being handled here so intra EU won't be an issue. Question is whether companies will allow a Spanish person now be based in Spain (on lower wages) than here. If it works for the companies they will pursue it. I know of one particular European country where they are struggling to get people to move to Ireland for (Covid accelerated the amount of people returning home and they cannot backfill at the same rate). Eventually those companies might have to offer local employment as the work needs to be done.

It's inevitable that unrestricted remote working be allowed within the EU, and definitely impossible for legal reasons outside it.

Amadan Dubh

yagan wrote: »

It's inevitable that unrestricted remote working be allowed within the EU, and definitely impossible for legal reasons outside it.

I fully agree that I see it is inevitable within the EU. To be clear, I'm talking about a company with a presence across the EU and not just a company which only has a presence in Ireland. For example, a Google or Facebook which would have offices across the EU, as opposed to a local advertising agency in Dublin that only operates in the Irish market.

It means that indigenous Irish industries need to be supported more as we are forced to wean ourselves off the corporate tax teat from a few MNCs. There will be a medium to long term decline in demand for office space and a lot of homeowners will have to deal with gradual continued decline in prices and rents in this scenario unless something dramatic can cause the Irish economy to outgrow its MNC tax dependence.

timmyntc

yagan wrote: »

It's inevitable that unrestricted remote working be allowed within the EU, and definitely impossible for legal reasons outside it.

For remote working outside the EU, companies can just set up subsidiaries in those cheaper countries.

Many multinationals already do this too.

The impact of remote working on high cost countries (like Ireland) will be similar to the job losses incurred by outsourcing in the 90s and 2000s.

yagan

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

I fully agree that it is inevitable within the EU. To be clear, I'm talking about a company with a presence across the EU and not just a company which only has a presence in Ireland. For example, a Google or Facebook which would have offices across the EU, as opposed to a local advertising agency in Dublin that only operates in the Irish market.

And what's more likely isn't that Spanish people taking jobs here, but that workers here relocate to there.

I bet loads of Scandinavians have already moved to do precisely that.

But it's nothing new, I know people who've been that for nearly two decades although they're in very niche fields that didn't require teams.

propertyseeker

We spend weekend researching dozens properties in Dublin 15 within our budget 350,000.
Every property going for record high on property data register!
Only 4 or 5 good condition.
We were interested in two and found out both already over 50,000 over asking and only for sale within 10 days.
This feel similar to 06/07
Do most Irish people not work for money as to me it seems crazy to spend like this, i wonder if these are funds as no person would earned this money would spend like this at worst time!

Amadan Dubh

propertyseeker wrote: »

We spend weekend researching dozens properties in Dublin 15 within our budget 350,000.
Every property going for record high on property data register!
Only 4 or 5 good condition.
We were interested in two and found out both already over 50,000 over asking and only for sale within 10 days.
This feel similar to 06/07
Do most Irish people not work for money as to me it seems crazy to spend like this, i wonder if these are funds as no person would earned this money would spend like this at worst time!

FOMO. People see covid ending and things roaring back so are fearful of having to wait another few years to buy.

am_zarathustra

Record number of mortgages were granted in April, there's a lot of cash out there and not a lot of properties. Based on the spending in town over the last couple of days the roaring back could look to be accurate but only time will tell

yagan

It really is hard to tell what way things will go. Covid may have motivated a lot who can to bring retirement forward and sell out of Dublin for a quieter less crowded bolthole to sit out another pandemic in and they'll find willing buyers of younger people wanting to be in where the supposed buzz is.

mcsean2163

propertyseeker wrote: »

We spend weekend researching dozens properties in Dublin 15 within our budget 350,000.
Every property going for record high on property data register!
Only 4 or 5 good condition.
We were interested in two and found out both already over 50,000 over asking and only for sale within 10 days.
This feel similar to 06/07
Do most Irish people not work for money as to me it seems crazy to spend like this, i wonder if these are funds as no person would earned this money would spend like this at worst time!

Yep, it's crazy. My guess is funds are gobbling up supply. The 2 up 2 downs are going sale agreed for huge prices in no time but better more family centric homes are not selling in the same area even though asking is actually below some of the sale agreed prices of the smaller homes.

yagan

timmyntc wrote: »

For remote working outside the EU, companies can just set up subsidiaries in those cheaper countries.

Many multinationals already do this too.

The impact of remote working on high cost countries (like Ireland) will be similar to the job losses incurred by outsourcing in the 90s and 2000s.

Outsourcing to india went into reverse a decade ago and it's more likely now that someone in Europe will be engaged remotely by an Indian company now.

Amadan Dubh

Eviction and rent increase ban to be extended for those receiving a covid payment for another 6 months until 12 January it appears. There is also a protection to be introduced for students who will be able to pay monthly for their rentals so they don't risk losing their full year/half year payment if covid restrictions are reintroduced.

I can't find a whole of data as to how widespread it actually is that tenants are receiving covid payments and not paying their rent. However, for those that are, they are potentially in arrears for 12 months of rent. There is no way this can be paid by them if they needed a covid payment, being realistic. But who pays?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/cabinet-to-consider-extending-pandemic-protections-for-renters-1.4588330?mode=amp

Currently these people are shielded from rent increases or eviction, but the protection, which was due to expire on July 12th, will be extended to January 12th.

Landlords will also be barred from charging a tenant more than the value of two months’ rental payments in deposits and other payments as upfront charges when moving into a new property.

Under the plans, students will be given the option to pay monthly for accommodation in case there is a fourth wave of Covid-19.

JimmyVik

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Eviction and rent increase ban to be extended for those receiving a covid payment for another 6 months until 12 January it appears. There is also a protection to be introduced for students who will be able to pay monthly for their rentals so they don't risk losing their full year/half year payment if covid restrictions are reintroduced.

I can't find a whole of data as to how widespread it actually is that tenants are receiving covid payments and not paying their rent. However, for those that are, they are potentially in arrears for 12 months of rent. There is no way this can be paid by them if they needed a covid payment, being realistic. But who pays?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/cabinet-to-consider-extending-pandemic-protections-for-renters-1.4588330?mode=amp

I have a friend who hasnt been paid rent in over 3 years, and still cant get the scumbag out.
I know a fair few landlords who havent been paid in two years also.

JimmyVik

A lot of people buying further out of the city now for sure. Its like 2006 all over again.
All justifying it this time by saying they can work from home.
Im waiting for all the people who are buying rural homes to work from home, to suddenly find out that WFH isnt as good as they think, or indeed allowed enough to justify the commute on the days they do have to commute.
I think there will be quite an oversupply of rural cheap homes at some point.

PropQueries

Another portfolio of housing units that are leased to AHBs (i.e. the state) have been put up for sale. This time it's 69 apartments in Tralee, Co. Kerry with 20-year leases to approved housing bodies and they're seeking c. €11 Million.

Micheál Martin really wasn't messing when he said a few weeks ago that "The big player in the housing market at the moment is the State".

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/tralee-social-housing-portfolio-offers-buyer-4-66-yield-1.4587339

Mic 1972

propertyseeker wrote: »

We spend weekend researching dozens properties in Dublin 15 within our budget 350,000.
Every property going for record high on property data register!
Only 4 or 5 good condition.
We were interested in two and found out both already over 50,000 over asking and only for sale within 10 days.
This feel similar to 06/07
Do most Irish people not work for money as to me it seems crazy to spend like this, i wonder if these are funds as no person would earned this money would spend like this at worst time!

I was in the same boat for a year, just went sales agreed couple of weeks ago.
You can get the EA to tell you if you are bidding against a fund, they will tell you.
I pulled out every time i was bidding with funds, no point in doing it. They go into bidding wars against each other too. Crazy

Mic 1972

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

I fully agree that I see it is inevitable within the EU. To be clear, I'm talking about a company with a presence across the EU and not just a company which only has a presence in Ireland. For example, a Google or Facebook which would have offices across the EU, as opposed to a local advertising agency in Dublin that only operates in the Irish market.

But that's always been the case. You could get transferred to another subsidiary in Europe or even outside EU, granted that there was a job opening in the destination country.


Every subsidiary manages its own budget so it's not an easy like for like replacement. A position must be approved by the subsidiary before you can get transferred

MacronvFrugals

Dublin down 22 spots to 51st in latest 'Global Liveability Index'



https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/global-liveability-index-2021/?utm_source=economist&utm_medium=daily_chart&utm_campaign=liveability21

timmyntc

yagan wrote: »

Outsourcing to india went into reverse a decade ago and it's more likely now that someone in Europe will be engaged remotely by an Indian company now.

Outsourcing to India went into reverse, but still result in lost jobs here.

But I was thinking more along the lines of factories being moved from Ireland to cheaper cost countries.

Villa05

Jmc25 wrote:

To be fair to this Government/previous Governments, I would imagine they expected that these policies would already have paid dividends and we would have reached the price point where a significant number of houses were being built some time ago. I doubt it was ever the intention for these policies to lead to the current situation where rent and purchase prices are so high, and yet there's still so little being built.

PropQueries wrote:

Another portfolio of housing units that are leased to AHBs (i.e. the state) have been put up for sale. This time it's 69 apartments in Tralee, Co. Kerry with 20-year leases to approved housing bodies and they're seeking c. €11 Million.

A quick Google of the properties shows that one of these apartments went for auction through bidx1 wit a reserve of

50,000 In 2018

2 sales on the property price register for 2019 selling at
77,000, and 85,000

The asking price in 2021 from the asking price above with long term leasing effect

159,000 In 2021

Just a micro segment of how government is making these entities very wealthy at your expense with your money and they pay no tax

Would be interesting to know if this development was ever in the hands of Nama.

Ozark707

JimmyVik wrote: »

I have a friend who hasnt been paid rent in over 3 years, and still cant get the scumbag out.
I know a fair few landlords who havent been paid in two years also.

I had a friend in a similar situation about 15 years ago. He spent the guts of 30k on legal fees/missed rent and on the final day when the scumbag was due to move out (the scumbags lawyer had washed his hands of him as well by the end) he had to go to the cash machine and get another 500 out and hand it over before he would leave. He regrets to this day that he didn't offer him 5k at the outset to leave, would have saved so much in money and stress.

Ace2007

Villa05 wrote: »

A quick Google of the properties shows that one of these apartments went for auction through bidx1 wit a reserve of

50,000 In 2018

2 sales on the property price register for 2019 selling at
77,000, and 85,000

The asking price in 2021 from the asking price above with long term leasing effect

159,000 In 2021

Just a micro segment of how government is making these entities very wealthy at your expense with your money and they pay no tax

Would be interesting to know if this development was ever in the hands of Nama.

But anyone can buy on Bidx1 though - was nothing stopping you from buying it on there cheap in 2018.

Villa05

Ace2007 wrote:

But anyone can buy on Bidx1 though - was nothing stopping you from buying it on there cheap in 2018.

You completely miss the point

Tralee is a town that thrives on tourism. The price of these apartments were in the range of a couple working in the tourism/catering sector

Government intervention through long term leasing and tax breaks for wealthy institutions has doubled the price of the housing thereby putting it out of reach of workers that keep the town sustainable

By pricing out workers of the local housing the state will have to step in and provide subsidised housing for them.

Rinse and repeat throughout the country and what you have is an incredibly dumb unsustainable policy that will eventually bring us back to a 2008 situation yet again

AlmightyCushion

Ace2007 wrote: »

But anyone can buy on Bidx1 though - was nothing stopping you from buying it on there cheap in 2018.

That isn't the point he is making. The properties weren't bought on the cheap in 2019, they were bought at market value. These long term leases from the council are so lucrative that they have caused the properties to nearly double in price in the space of 2 years. The council leases are causing massive price inflation and helping to make housing unaffordable. That isn't right.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Another portfolio of housing units that are leased to AHBs (i.e. the state) have been put up for sale. This time it's 69 apartments in Tralee, Co. Kerry with 20-year leases to approved housing bodies and they're seeking c. €11 Million.

Micheál Martin really wasn't messing when he said a few weeks ago that "The big player in the housing market at the moment is the State".

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/tralee-social-housing-portfolio-offers-buyer-4-66-yield-1.4587339

Do you have a link to this quote?

MacronvFrugals

Villa05 wrote: »

You completely miss the point

Tralee is a town that thrives on tourism. The price of these apartments were in the range of a couple working in the tourism/catering sector

Government intervention through long term leasing and tax breaks for wealthy institutions has doubled the price of the housing thereby putting it out of reach of workers that keep the town sustainable

By pricing out workers of the local housing the state will have to step in and provide subsidised housing for them.

Rinse and repeat throughout the country and what you have is an incredibly dumb unsustainable policy that will eventually bring us back to a 2008 situation yet again

It's worrying that this even needs to be explained!