Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

awec

You just have to look at how fast the price of houses has outpaced wage increases to see how much more difficult it is to get onto the ladder today than it was 30/40 years ago.

This is basically the avocado toast argument again. It's a lazy one IMO.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119488068#Comment_119488068

That sounds more like you regret your choice of career rather than your degree being useless. I suspect there are tradesmen who regret they didn’t apply for degrees which would give them a job in the tech sector, particularly when it’s pissing rain/freezing.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119488514#Comment_119488514

I actually like what I do, it's the thought of the amount of money I have spent on rent in dublin over the last 9 years, you talking up on nearly 85,000 for me and probably likewise for my girlfriend, and this rent was house share room rent.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119488464#Comment_119488464

I do not think we were hardier. People on threads like this compare there ability to buy a house with someone 40 years ago. They have a presumption that it was easier. It was not.

Yes we saved hard for two year. However we had a deposit before that and wages to buy a three bed semi in Limerick city. After all I had both being working since our teens. We saved hard to give us a different housing option basically to buy a site and build a house. But at that stage we had nearly twenty years of being in the labour force fulltime between us.

People now leave college many with a useless pie e of paper at 23, many have to spend another 2+ years either getting a masters or doing professional exams. They do not start to earn until after that.

I always think the problem nowadays is that sex costs nothing. 30+ years ago of you wanted regular sex in a bed you had to be married and more have a house. You did not drift through your 20's you worked all through them years.

AySeeDoubleYeh

I had a response typed up about how insulting/out of touch your post is but tbh after that last paragraph about sex i'm just shy of 70% sure you're pulling my leg.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119488702#Comment_119488702

that post must surely be satirical, no?

Its not far off saying all you had for Christmas was coal in a sock

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119488702#Comment_119488702

I think youve let yourself down, I have paid over 85,000 euro in roomshares in Ireland since I started working after college 9 years ago likewise my girlfriend that a combined cost of nearly 170,000, we have been prudent and have a substantial pot for building a house wonce things settle off on the materials side. But if I did not get the hybrid working and had to stay around the greater dublin leinster area forget about it. But there is absolutely no way you can say it was harder back then. My parents went to Londan done 2 years (he worked as a mechanic/lorry driver she worked in a shop) and built there house mortgage free with cash, no way ud do that now.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119485758#Comment_119485758

What fundamentals in the housing market will change with a change in government?

Demand will remain the same unless there is some policy change that results in job losses and if that happens I won’t make the assumption that it will only impact people that have immigrated to Ireland for work. It will impact everyone.

unless the new government can create extra labour and capacity to build houses there will be no additional housing built. All that will happen is more of one type of housing will be built and less of another. E.g. more social housing will result in less private houses for FTB’s

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119486430#Comment_119486430

Big difference with that recession was there was a massive oversupply of housing at the time. if we have a recession now there won’t be a drop in rents as there is a massive under supply of housing.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119489256#Comment_119489256

If you paid 85k over nine years that an average of 800/ months. It's sounds highish for the period you speak about

Shauna677

000000000

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119491747#Comment_119491747

And whats going to happen now is people will simple have no choice but return home to live with their parents. Others will simple have no choice but leave the country. We have something like 750 homes available for rent in the WHOLE country. The situation is simply dire.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119491775#Comment_119491775

The problem is we have regulated LL out of existence. If you had a house that was free for 6 months to 2 years and in good condition you would be crazy to rent it.....even to someone you thaugh you knew. That is aside from overhead commercial and former commercial premise's in smaller urban centres.

There an old saying ''hard cases make bad law''. That is the way regulation works in this county, we regulate for hard cases.

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119491754#Comment_119491754

Started off at 500 a month but remember Rental pressure zones were not around that time so every year for about 4 years I was getting slapped with increases, and they all build up, then came end 2016 and rpz in play then estate agent jacked rent before it, thats where we said no thanks and we moved to a cheaper place which was 800 a month, only got 2 years out of that then woman that inherited the house sold it. Since 2018 rent just ballooned then up to 1000 a month for a room share, then came post covid where it went to 1200 for a room share. So all in all that's where I get the 800 a month. Yes I could have got rent cheaper at the time in the likes of lucan or swords but when you weigh up the transport costs of travelling to city centre everyday and or having to buy a car too tax insurance upkeep, I opted renting in dublin.

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119491775#Comment_119491775

Maybe that's what we need to see people emigrate again. But it appears the property crisis is occurring in a lot of countries. The Govt is and has forced alot of whats happening. Due to their own actions they are forcing landlords out of the market by making the environment toxic.

They stopped building social housing, they mismanage the stock of social housing, alot of what has been done is "smoke and mirrors" to shift the blame for their handling of the situation.

I am not political in anyway but I don't see what Sinn Fein can do. A post below from Timing Belt sums it up very well. We don't have an oversupply of properties and no political party no matter what they say will magically produce properties overnight.

AdamD

I've never met anyone paying 1000 for a roomshare, nevermind 1200.

Eclectic Econometrics

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119492315#Comment_119492315

I just looked on Daft and they're definitely there, worse even.

https://www.daft.ie/share/7-beech-hill-crescent-donnybrook-dublin-4/4029099

https://www.daft.ie/share/booterstown-ave-booterstown-co-dublin/4028437

https://www.daft.ie/share/31-the-green-hollystown-dublin-15/4028996

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119492315#Comment_119492315

100% you'll pay that for a room share in an apartment or house in the city centre

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119492234#Comment_119492234

When you read between the lines, you understand why those affected would vote for something different

When the cost of social housing can be up to 750,000 per unit, you push up the price in all markets

Say you put 50 social tennants in this accomodation, your actions in pushing up price could put an extra 100 on the list, another 100 on HAP, more on increased rent way above inflation and more priced out of buying completely. Remember the mantra from the celtic tiger, when you price out ftb's, (new entrants) the whole house of cards come crashing down

Governments perceived actions in "solving" the issue is in fact creating doom loop that is growing exponentially. They will not change, they are wedded to this process that will bring down everything.

If you are affected negatively by this process (imo we all are) you either get out or you get them out.

To solve a problem, you first have to stop making it worse. We are where we are!!!!

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119492904#Comment_119492904

Again, your entire premise is based on the idea that things couldn't be worse. I have no idea why you have this in your head.

You must surely see that a vote for SF is not a vote to "stop making things worse", it's a vote to try something different, which might make things better, or it could make things a lot worse. A market collapse for example would be very, very bad for people at the bottom of the ladder (i.e. the SF vote base).

Your notion that the property market is being driven high by the government on purpose and if they just stopped with their policies everything would be grand will either be validated or invalidated fairly quickly. 😊

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119492904#Comment_119492904

I am trying to not turn this into a political thread. I want to see Ireland succeed but people potentially could vote for parties who might destroy Ireland.

We are a small open economy who need FDI our corporation tax and associated income tax of those working in these corporations is critical to us. If you spook businesses they invest elsewhere so Sinn Fein are saying yes houses for all, higher wages etc but what they don't understand is that all of this has to be paid for. If we were a large country who had resources etc then yes we could dictate the terms of business to any FDI's and they would still come as they need us but we don't.

I am not saying the current govt is doing things right (I am a landlord for the record and a PAYE worker who left school at 16 and has worked ever since while obtaining a degree, masters and qualifying as an accountant) all while working full time. The current Govt has not made the hard decisions when it comes to the property sector.

I understand business and the impact of decisions but what I am fearful of is the damage that populist promises will have on Ireland over the long term. I am old enough to have seen family members leave Ireland in the 1980's because of the situation in Ireland then. I don't want to see it again but I fear if Sinn Fein are elected as some form of punishment for the existing Govt Ireland may be destroyed internationally and we all suffer.

To try bring this back on track yes we need to take a multi faceted approach to this situation but we need to have those in power willing to take the tough decisions and stand by them. We also need the public to play its part too.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119488491#Comment_119488491

Nah I don't buy that. Single people have it very tough, unless they want to use a massive deposit.

But couples it's very achievable for them to buy.

I'm on other sites where I'll see things like a couple who both earn 50k+ who are in their early 30's and they'll say they are now starting to save for a deposit on a house or they'll say they have 4k saved. I just think wtf have you been doing all these years? They obviously didn't come out of college and earn 50k right away so what were they spending their wages on exactly?

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119491747#Comment_119491747

Go look at any queues for rentals and most of them will be foreigners. If there's a recession with big job losses, these foreigners will be out of work and won't be able pay rent so they'll go home.

There's an under supply until there's not. There was an undersupply of smartphone chips...that's flipped and now companies are cancelling their orders because they have too many.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493090#Comment_119493090

I’m not sure which is worse, the xenophobia or the lack of understanding.

There was an article in most news sources about a house in Dublin where 150 queued to view it, the were reported to be students, working people, families etc, not one reported they were “mainly foreigners”.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493229#Comment_119493229

Considering I have rented out rooms in the place I live as recently as a few months ago, I can tell you that 85% of demand is from foreigners.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493090#Comment_119493090

Presumption is the mother of all f@@kups. You presume that it will be younger foreign works that will be laid off.

From the history of tech and large companies two things happen. One is they close completely and everyone gets laid off. However if they downsize a plant they generally target older employees with any redundancy package. It's generally more attractive to these employees. They generally try to hold onto younger cheaper staff

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493383#Comment_119493383

A lot of the young foreign people employed like stated could also be on contact employment and if there new to ireland they will be on probation and will be the cheapest (cost nothing) and first to be dropped before any talk of redundancies even start. Funny enough all the older guys where i work praying for a recession so they can get the bag of money because that what they seen happen in the tiger crash. They don't realise that our direct employee head count is 60% lower than it was back then and the other 40% is contract labour/hire/machines/ drilling. Company since the crash has gone down the route of contractors as opposed to direct employees. They are pulling far higher wages than the employees but they will get the chop first.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493460#Comment_119493460

Companies will often hold onto contracted employees. They are younger, cheaper, more flexible. It can be harder to get older employees to change habits or work practices.

As well companies tend to contract out complete functions so it can be impossible to reduce these functions completely. I know of one factory that used to have electricians employed directly. They were on shift etc. However a few of the older lads were doing nothing for them. The company bought in a contractor and gave staff the option of moving to them or taking a package. However not that is a contract function that cannot be done without .

I took a redundancy package off a company 3+ years ago. They left 5-8% of there staff go. I was one of the youngest to go and I was nearly 57 at the time.

They ceased no contracts just reduced directly employed headcount

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493702#Comment_119493702

Nearly all the people who work in tech sector in Dublin are young people. Contractor as a project manager on 150000 grand working for a multinational for example will get chopped straight away. They are definitely not cheaper and if the dark days come they will be chopped and some employees that will be 'lucky to still have a job' will have to do the job. This will be the case for any multinational American company that has no union.

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493272#Comment_119493272

In fairness I'd say that's somewhat biased, in the same way Daft's numbers on rentals aren't accurate at all. Irish people are far more likely to roomshare through people they know than foreigners, which never hits a daft rental ad. So if you're putting up a roomshare ad online I'd bet you'll get a disproportionate amount of foreign interest as locals will be trying to find a room through their mates firstly.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119493758#Comment_119493758

Contractors will always be the first to go when cutting costs unless they are working on a critical project. That is why they on the books as contractors and not permanent staff. And as you say they then ask permanent employees to try and take on the important workload and shelf projects.