Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

cnocbui

Ace2007 wrote: »

If you were selling your house and were offered 50% more than the asking price, and you found out it was a pension fund - would you pull out?

Would you happen to have contact details for that fund? I'd like to drop them a heads-up when I list mine.

Nice to see two NZ cities in the top 4 of the Economists ranking of world cities on livability. Can't wait.

Eclectic Econometrics

Ace2007 wrote: »

If you were selling your house and were offered 50% more than the asking price, and you found out it was a pension fund - would you pull out?

I watched a programme about Barbados a couple of years ago and this old guy had a shack on the beach he wouldn't sell. The trend, over 80 years, went from property inland that was valuable to beachside, so this coffin dodger is sitting on a corrugated iron roof house which is worth $8,000,000 and he's having none of it. Understandable, when you get old and you are just set in your ways.

As for me, Ace, of course I would take more. It is a bit like everyone's tax situation, you're only going to pay what you have to. You may be happy to pay more if it benefits everyone but you are not going to hand over additional cash to revenue out of the goodness of your heart. I would take the 50% extra but if there was legislation that meant it wasn't forthcoming then I would live with it.

yagan

Ace2007 wrote: »

They don't really go bust though - these funds don't have all their eggs in one basket, and they invest in a lot more than just residential property as i pointed out not so long ago. They are well diversified in terms of location of property and rental sector.

This is the exact thinking that allows fund managers to fill their parachutes before the collapse.

I've posted the Financial Times piece several times on this thread now so I'm not going to post it again, but according to the IMF major international pension funds have seen their share of property assets go from 20% to over half their funds worth since 2008.

The mantra once was house prices only ever go up and many made fortunes in mortgage commissions exploiting that bias.

Same applies now to the blind faith that pension funds can't go bust.

Ace2007

yagan wrote: »

This is the exact thinking that allows fund managers to fill their parachutes before the collapse.

I've posted the Financial Times piece several times on this thread now so I'm not going to post it again, but according to the IMF major international pension funds have seen their share of property assets go from 20% to over half their funds worth since 2008.

The mantra once was house prices only ever go up and many made fortunes in mortgage commissions exploiting that bias.

Same applies now to the blind faith that pension funds can't go bust.

Yet you never post it to say it's about Ireland... when you compare asset investment in property compared with total assets - you'll see it's quite small an allocation in Ireland

propertyseeker

I got serious question
We want to buy ok house for 350,000 but can't find any in area we look
Before covid 2020/2019 we would get ok property for price
Now economy worse
People panic scared and price go up
Economy is most fragile since ww2
why do people think prices are now permanent and only keep going up?
When everything open up and more supply build should prices not go back to 2020/2019?

Marius34

propertyseeker wrote: »

I got serious question
We want to buy ok house for 350,000 but can't find any in area we look
Before covid 2020/2019 we would get ok property for price
Now economy worse
People panic scared and price go up
Economy is most fragile since ww2
why do people think prices are now permanent and only keep going up?
When everything open up and more supply build should prices not go back to 2020/2019?

No it shouldn't, and unlikely to go back. The world is moving.
I don't see from where large supplies to come on market any time soon.
It's not just panic, simply there are high demands, and low supplies. It just a fairly low stocks of residential properties.

cnocbui

propertyseeker wrote: »

I got serious question
We want to buy ok house for 350,000 but can't find any in area we look
Before covid 2020/2019 we would get ok property for price
Now economy worse
People panic scared and price go up
Economy is most fragile since ww2
why do people think prices are now permanent and only keep going up?
When everything open up and more supply build should prices not go back to 2020/2019?

Because there is a lot more demand than supply.

Prices sshould only retreat if the supple vs demand is better and if the construction costs go back down. Good luck waiting for the latter.

enricoh

Big bad landlords getting vilified in the media again, no doubt there'll be a segment next week urging landlords to share their horror stories!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/tenants-share-your-stories-of-unfair-treatment-by-landlords-1.4588673?mode=amp

zom

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Dublin down 22 spots to 51st in latest 'Global Liveability Index'

https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/global-liveability-index-2021/?utm_source=economist&utm_medium=daily_chart&utm_campaign=liveability21

Not just Dublin but all Europe fall down miserably. EU is not working well anymore...

https://pages.eiu.com/rs/753-RIQ-438/images/global-liveability-index-2021-free-report.pdf

yagan

Ace2007 wrote: »

Yet you never post it to say it's about Ireland... when you compare asset investment in property compared with total assets - you'll see it's quite small an allocation in Ireland

I think it was you that made the same assertion before, but when I asked for you to give links stating the current asset allocation of major Irish pension funds you couldn't do it.

If you haven't noticed that foreign funds are outbidding voters for homes in Ireland then there's no helping you.

Timing belt

yagan wrote: »

I think it was you that made the same assertion before, but when I asked for you to give links stating the current asset allocation of major Irish pension funds you couldn't do it.

If you haven't noticed that foreign funds are outbidding voters for homes in Ireland then there's no helping you.

Most of the Irish domiciled funds are foreign capital anyway. Plus it is very difficult to see the real exposure to property as funds will invest in funds that in turn invest in funds that buy property or finance the building of property. Yes funds should be diversified so they don’t have a concentration risk on property in a specific market but a lot of that goes out the window when you can’t find yield elsewhere.

Ace2007

yagan wrote: »

I think it was you that made the same assertion before, but when I asked for you to give links stating the current asset allocation of major Irish pension funds you couldn't do it.

If you haven't noticed that foreign funds are outbidding voters for homes in Ireland then there's no helping you.

I did give it to you

Ace2007 wrote: »

Again no, you think an investment manager like ILIM is solely in property? Just look at their website - They only have approx 3 billion in property.

ILIM is in investment management company, investing in equities/bonds/property/alternatives, etc.

The Germany Property Group - was well property as the name suggests.

Ace2007 wrote: »

There are numerous different funds, but

Property approx 3 billion: https://www.ilim.com/investment-capabilities/property/

Total assets under management - 92 billion: https://www.ilim.com/who-we-are/

So property funds make up approx. 3% of their funds. Which is no where near half that the poster had originally claimed.

MacronvFrugals

Interesting development breaking from Facebook



https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1402735192352112642?s=20

javaboy

fliball123 wrote: »

Well you wouldnt sell them now as prices are still rising and may well keep rising for the forseeable

Same answer. Cash. They might want to realise their gains now not later.

cubatahavana

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Interesting development breaking from Facebook



https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1402735192352112642?s=20

Yes, wife works in FB. Got notification today. If all goes according to plan, we will be moving to Spain in 5-10 years

thefridge2006

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Interesting development breaking from Facebook



https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1402735192352112642?s=20

This is huge!!! I would imagine there will be a massive uptake. I know several non Irish people working in FB etc and they will 100% be on the first plane out of here.... they get paid extremely well and their money will go a lot further out of this rip off city

selassie

DCC better take out some more 20+ year leases before all the big tech company employees leave and the cost plummets.

zom

If other big tech firms follow suit at scale, potential effect on Dublin rents etc.

In your dreams. I've seen new top grade office buildings in minutes walk distance from Stephens Green vacant for years - big Irish landlords have a big connections in banks and government - they will get their loans propagated or bailed rather they will go down with prices...

Ozark707

thefridge2006 wrote: »

This is huge!!! I would imagine there will be a massive uptake. I know several non Irish people working in FB etc and they will 100% be on the first plane out of here.... they get paid extremely well and their money will go a lot further out of this rip off city

Think about the less well paid (if their roles are eligible). They will certainly looking to relocate if they can substantially reduce their outgoings.

Ozark707

zom wrote: »

In your dreams. I've seen new top grade office buildings in minutes walk distance from Stephens Green vacant for years - big Irish landlords have a big connections in banks and government - they will get their loans propagated or bailed rather they will go down with prices...

I think the Twitter poster was more referring to residential rents than office rates.

Ace2007

The article states that they never offered it before due to regulatory and tax reasons - whats changed?

Do you not think the timing is highly coincidental with the new global tax being purposed - perhaps it’s FB way of showing Ireland what will happen if they sign up to the global tax treaty.

This has potential to be Ryanair all over again pay people local rates and not Irish once it’s all set up.

Cyrus

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Interesting development breaking from Facebook



https://twitter.com/adrianweckler/status/1402735192352112642?s=20

How does that reconcile with this also from the same article

Mr Zuckerberg said that staff in the company’s office must be present more than half of the time.

The devil will be in the detail but this sounds more like you can move your role to one our existing subsidiaries in these 7 countries, and I'd be surprised if there wasn't a salary impact with that.

Let's see.

It is something Google and Facebook can offer to a certain extent because they already have a sizeable presence in several European countries.

Villa05

thefridge2006 wrote:

This is huge!!! I would imagine there will be a massive uptake. I know several non Irish people working in FB etc and they will 100% be on the first plane out of here.... they get paid extremely well and their money will go a lot further out of this rip off city

It won't be just the non Irish, even the property owning segment of the workforce would be tempted to sell up and go. First mover advantage

Does this also mean FB no longer need to employ people in Ireland to work for FB office in Ireland?

If this is the case, this could have a devastating effect on employment in MNCs here.

brucky

JDD wrote: »

Could they not start by applying the vacant property tax to certain areas, like the rent pressure zones?

There's a building on Booterstown Ave that's been vacant for nigh on 10 years now. It's boarded up, it's right on the road and it's a bloody eyesore. Builders would be chomping at the bit to do that place up, or knock it down and start again. It would likely end up being luxury apartments so not much use to your common man but in my opinion suppy is supply, better than it remaining vacant.

The building on Booterstown is a protected structure and it is zoned residential. Numerous planning applications for demolition have been refused by ABP. Despite this planning history the house to the rhs purchased the property several years ago and applied for ppm to demolish it, which was again refused by ABP. The new owner who lives adjacent to the building previously objected to the site being demolished by the previous owner. So again we have new owners who are messers and don’t have the best interests of the building nor the area upper most ie they knew exactly what they were walking into when they purchased the site!
This is a long established eyesore with new owners that are chancers.

brucky

brucky wrote: »

The building on Booterstown is a protected structure and it is zoned residential. Numerous planning applications for demolition have been refused by ABP. Despite this planning history the house to the rhs purchased the property several years ago and applied for ppm to demolish it, which was again refused by ABP. The new owner who lives adjacent to the building previously objected to the site being demolished by the previous owner. So again we have new owners who are messers and don’t have the best interests of the building nor the area upper most ie they knew exactly what they were walking into when they purchased the site!
This is a long established eyesore with new owners that are chancers.

Or, the new owners quite rightly objected previously to the demolition of a protected structure, and intend to renovate it rather than demolish. Do you know what they intend to do?

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

It won't be just the non Irish, even the property owning segment of the workforce would be tempted to sell up and go. First mover advantage

You should apply as your clearly not happy in Ireland

Regarding Facebook, it will be interesting to see the impact it has on their new campus. Zuckerberg made similar statements in the US last year just before agreeing improved terms on Hudson landings.
It is also a good retention tool for non nationals in Ireland and other countries - salary adjustment, other terms such as pensions could well be impacted. Also interesting what number of workers will be eligible.

JimmyVik

Dav010 wrote: »

Does this also mean FB no longer need to employ people in Ireland to work for FB office in Ireland?

If this is the case, this could have a devastating effect on employment in MNCs here.

I imagine that peoples jobs will be "transferred" to an office in whatever country they move to.

I dont know how facebook will work it but I know my company does something like that for many years now.
If someone wanted to move to the Berlin office then they become an employee of the Berlin office. Same with the Madrid office.
On moving your contract with the Dublin office is terminated and you sign a new one with Berlin. Basically becoming a new employee in Berlin.

They get to keep their Irish salary for a year and then must go on the local salary of whichever office they transferred to, (which never seems to be as good as the irish salary). So you cant live in Spain and work for the Dublin office for example. And even if you worked for the Madrid office for example, you have to actually be in that office every day.

With Facebook I guess it would be similar. You would want to check out though if you would be gaining or losing long term, with years service, pensions, sick pay, years counted if you are made redundant a year down the line, and all that sort of stuff. There would be different pay, bonus structures in each country. And then tax of course, but its hard to believe anyone would end up paying more tax than in Ireland.

JimmyVik

JimmyVik wrote: »

I imagine that peoples jobs will be "transferred" to an office in whatever country they move to.

I dont know how facebook will work it but I know my company does something like that for many years now.
If someone wanted to move to the Berlin office then they become an employee of the Berlin office. Same with the Madrid office.
On moving your contract with the Dublin office is terminated and you sign a new one with Berlin. Basically becoming a new employee in Berlin.

They get to keep their Irish salary for a year and then must go on the local salary of whichever office they transferred to, (which never seems to be as good as the irish salary). So you cant live in Spain and work for the Dublin office for example. And even if you worked for the Madrid office for example, you have to actually be in that office every day.

With Facebook I guess it would be similar. You would want to check out though if you would be gaining or losing long term, with years service, pensions, sick pay, years counted if you are made redundant a year down the line, and all that sort of stuff. There would be different pay, bonus structures in each country. And then tax of course, but its hard to believe anyone would end up paying more tax than in Ireland.

You are missing the big picture.

JimmyVik

Dav010 wrote: »

You are missing the big picture.

What picture would that be?

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

You should apply as your clearly not happy in Ireland

There's a difference between
Not happy in Ireland
V
Not happy with how is being run for the benefit of sectional interests over the population

Hubertj

cubatahavana wrote: »

Yes, wife works in FB. Got notification today. If all goes according to plan, we will be moving to Spain in 5-10 years

Are you and your wife from Spain? It must be really good to have that to plan for.

JimmyVik

JimmyVik wrote: »

What picture would that be?

MNCs accepting/allowing for the tax implications of people in other countries doing what employees in Irish offices used to do pre-pandemic.

Amadan Dubh

zom wrote: »

In your dreams. I've seen new top grade office buildings in minutes walk distance from Stephens Green vacant for years - big Irish landlords have a big connections in banks and government - they will get their loans propagated or bailed rather they will go down with prices...

Even with SF in government? The cosy relationship between banking, law, accountancy, institutional property representatives etc. with the relevant departments and FF/FG will be upset significantly with SF in government. All those connections within FF and FG or the civil service will be useless and they'll have to start cosying up to SF which I think a lot of those in these areas have never done and in fact probably don't even have friends who vote SF. Don't expect the way it has been to be an indicator for how things will be.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

There's a difference between
Not happy in Ireland
V
Not happy with how is being run for the benefit of sectional interests over the population

And do you think that such issues (maybe not property related) do not occur in Ireland?

Amadan Dubh

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Even with SF in government? The cosy relationship between banking, law, accountancy, institutional property representatives etc. with the relevant departments and FF/FG will be upset significantly with SF in government. All those connections within FF and FG or the civil service will be useless and they'll have to start costing up to SF which I think a lot of those in these areas have never done and in fact probably don't even have friends who vote SF. Don't expect the way it has been to be an indicator for how things will be.

Good to start the day with a giggle.

awec

So if I am reading the article right:

- Some Facebook staff will be allowed to work remotely full time, if their job function allows it.
- Some of these staff will be allowed to work outside of Ireland, in 7 other European countries.

That is to say, it is not an "anyone can work from anywhere" policy.

It's interesting but it's hardly seismic. As far as I remember Facebook own their brand new HQ (rather than rent), and they still want the staff who are not fully remote to be in the office at least half the time.

Hubertj

awec wrote: »

So if I am reading the article right:

- Some Facebook staff will be allowed to work remotely full time, if their job function allows it.
- Some of these staff will be allowed to work outside of Ireland, in 7 other European countries.

That is to say, it is not an "anyone can work from anywhere" policy.

I would agree with you. I think it will apply to people working in ad sales but we really won’t know until details are published.

I do look forward to the conspiracy theorists running wild with this. Will it lead to wide spread emigration? There are only a few weeks left until July when property prices are forecast to fall by 75%. Is this the beginning of the end?

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

And do you think that such issues (maybe not property related) do not occur in Ireland?

That is irrelevant to the point made.

JimmyVik

Dav010 wrote: »

MNCs accepting/allowing for the tax implications of people in other countries doing what employees in Irish offices used to do pre-pandemic.

They have always been able to do this though. This is nothing new.
This is facebook flying a kite for now, just as they did in San fran last year.

Lets see what the conditions they offer their staff are before we declare that the sky is falling in.
If they are good enough to make people leave Ireland in 10s of thousands then it will have an effect maybe. But as always, its just a kite for now. No need to declare the result just yet. My company did significant research into this and were blocked by employees needing to be resident Ireland. They got around it by moving the whole job to the other country. There are downsides to that for most people when they looked into moving, though a good few young people did move. I dont know of any families that did. Its one of these things thats a nice idea, but in practice its not as easy to do.

Its not going to make families up sticks and change country because one of them works for Facebook.
Maybe some single people, but thats always been open to them if they want to move to another EU country and get a new job. Yet they choose to come to Ireland to work.

awec

awec wrote: »

So if I am reading the article right:

- Some Facebook staff will be allowed to work remotely full time, if their job function allows it.
- Some of these staff will be allowed to work outside of Ireland, in 7 other European countries.

That is to say, it is not an "anyone can work from anywhere" policy.

It's interesting but it's hardly seismic. As far as I remember Facebook own their brand new HQ (rather than rent), and they still want the staff who are not fully remote to be in the office at least half the time.

It’s the precedent set awec.

Last summer the manager of one of the main IT recruiters was interviewed in Newstalk about wfh and whether this was likely to be the new norm. Her opinion was that this would eventually lead to IT jobs being lost due to the downgrading of the importance of being in an office, or even Ireland. She mentioned tax implications as an obstacle to jobs being taken/offered to people in other countries, but it would only be a matter of time before that was overcome. Seems FB are the first to take this on, if it works well, nothing to stop them expanding the policy.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

So if I am reading the article right:

- Some Facebook staff will be allowed to work remotely full time, if their job function allows it.
- Some of these staff will be allowed to work outside of Ireland, in 7 other European countries.

That is to say, it is not an "anyone can work from anywhere" policy.

It's interesting but it's hardly seismic. As far as I remember Facebook own their brand new HQ (rather than rent), and they still want the staff who are not fully remote to be in the office at least half the time.

I think the article in The Economist last week in relation to the international commercial property market sums up what's in store for both the commercial and residential property market in Ireland. As people keep saying, we live in a globalised economy. It possibly has already started to happen but due to the lockdowns, not many people have noticed it yet.

"Even small drops in occupancy rates will have a big effect on rents and prices... with billions of dollars sunk in undesirable buildings, they face a reckoning... such optimism is at best deluded, at worst dishonest".

I don't believe it will take much to switch from apparent under-supply to actual over-supply in the property markets (both commercial and residential) in Ireland.

Link to article in The Economist: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/06/05/someone-has-to-foot-the-bill-for-empty-offices

JimmyVik

Dav010 wrote: »

It’s the precedent set awec.

Last summer the manager of one of the main IT recruiters was interviewed in Newstalk about wfh and whether this was likely to be the new norm. Her opinion was that this would eventually lead to IT jobs being lost due to the downgrading of the importance of being in an office, or even Ireland. She mentioned tax implications as an obstacle to jobs being taken/offered to people in other countries, but it would only be a matter of time before that was overcome. Seems FB are the first to take this on, if it works well, nothing to stop them expanding the policy.

They arent. Maybe they are the first with a media machine to take it on, but they are no different to any other MNC thats allows their staff to keep their jobs when moving country (by transferring lock, stock and barrel to the other country).


The devil will be in the detail, and detail is so obviously missing here.
Any staff from Facebook get any detail on it?

awec

Dav010 wrote: »

It’s the precedent set awec.

Last summer the manager of one of the main IT recruiters was interviewed in Newstalk about wfh and whether this was likely to be the new norm. Her opinion was that this would eventually lead to IT jobs being lost due to the downgrading of the importance of being in an office, or even Ireland. She mentioned tax implications as an obstacle to jobs being taken/offered to people in other countries, but it would only be a matter of time before that was overcome. Seems FB are the first to take this on, if it works well, nothing to stop them expanding the policy.

It's not much of a precedent Dav010, it's a very small shift from the current status quo. There is a good reason it's caveated to "some" staff.

I think people are getting overly excited here, they see the headline and think that people are now going to be allowed to work from anywhere if they so desire. We're doomed, cause all the MNC staff are going to be on the next flight out. The truth, as usual, is a lot more nuanced.

On a side note, of all the potential companies to do this I am completely unsurprised that it's Facebook.

JimmyVik

JimmyVik wrote: »

They arent. Maybe they are the first with a media machine to take it on, but they are no different to any other MNC thats allows their staff to keep their jobs when moving country (by transferring lock, stock and barrel to the other country).


The devil will be in the detail, and detail is so obviously missing here.
Any staff from Facebook get any detail on it?

Jeez, if it wasn’t an issue, why would it be in the news? This is a major policy shift by a large employer which paves the way for employees in other countries to work for FB’s Irish office.

brucky

Dav010 wrote: »

Or, the new owners quite rightly objected previously to the demolition of a protected structure, and intend to renovate it rather than demolish. Do you know what they intend to do?

No the current owners objected to previous ppm for demolition. When the building came up for sale the new (current) owners who now live next door, purchased the building then applied to demolish the building and replace it with a modern detached home. I think its reasonable to say that based on the long established history of LA ppm refusals, and ABP decisions the new (current) owners went into the purchase with “eyes wide open” and knew exactly what they were walking into, well they live next door! Normally some developers sit on the asset as the site value rises over time and allow it to become more of an eye sore. Dereliction attracts anti social behaviour, squatting etc. These come hand in hand with fires. Fires can be started as an accident or deliberately. If the building was unfortunate enough to catch fire and the building was so damaged that it became unsafe, it would have to be demolished. This would render the site clear.

awec

Dav010 wrote: »

Jeez, if it wasn’t an issue, why would it be in the news? This is a major policy shift by a large employer which paves the way for employees in other countries to work for FB’s Irish office.

It's not a major shift, that's the point. It's in the news because it's interesting.

Of all of Facebook's staff, a minority will be allowed to be remote. Of that minority, and even smaller minority will be allowed to work from outside of Ireland. This is interesting, but it's not seismic, it's not "devastating", it's not going to bring us all to our knees.

I mean to read this thread this morning you'd think Facebook had announced they were leaving Ireland!

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

That is irrelevant to the point made.

Yes it’s does but as usual you don’t engage, just attempts at marking profound statements. I’ll leave it there

AdamD

Had heard similar with Google staff being offered to move to European offices

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

It's not a major shift, that's the point.

I would think the big point here is that we have been told here that the facebooks, googles etc. can't allow their staff to work in other EU countries for tax reasons.

From what I understand, that's no longer or shortly won't be entirely true or they appear to have found a way around it.

That's a major shift, especially as the future tax battles won't be on corporation tax etc. but on employee tax. We have little leeway left in relation to reducing employee taxes. The countries these employees moved to during the pandemic will also be doing their level best to keep them there.

A significant percentage of the predictions for housing demand are based on significant continued mass net inward migration into Ireland. I guess we'll know a bit more over the coming months and how many of the employees that did leave for their home countries during the pandemic do return around c. September.