Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119610743#Comment_119610743

Sorry, no, it is not as simple as “people who want property to rise are to blame”. There were some life choices made by this couple. They paid low rent for years and one of the two chose to stop having an income to go back to college. The first benefitted them greatly in terms of saving, the second cut their income/savings substantially.

Its a good story, but this isn’t someone else’s doing.

People can “insist” on property value rising all they want, but it is only worth what someone is willing to pay.

jimmybobbyschweiz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119610762#Comment_119610762

We have crossed the point where property rising in value is something for Irish society to get behind as it is clearly coming at a cost to the younger regenerations. Maybe in the past, the system of buying a house for yourself and expecting it to rise in value over time to then provide for yourself in retirement when you sell it, worked but that is not compatible with modern Ireland. It is clear now that rising property values are being paid for by the younger generations in particular who do not even have much of a chance anymore to get their own house. The cost is financial but also social as we see with that couple and many others who cannot afford to rent something respectable for themselves as this, they are told, is not consistent with the need in Irish society for property prices to keep going up in value.

To want property prices to stay high and even increase further in value is to push more younger people into precarious housing situations as they are paying the high rents that result in yield boosts to properties which in turn increases the value. This is so dysfunctional and you only have to go to other Western European cities to see that it is not so common to see married couples living at home in their 20s, let alone 30s, due to lack of affordable and available housing.

The Irish housing market in its dysfunction has an expiry date and I think we are getting close to it. No amount of low paid Indian tech workers, Ukranian women and children or south American English students will be able to keep the market frothy.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119610633#Comment_119610633

This is the same rental market you are convinced people want to wait out dropping prices in, right?

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119610853#Comment_119610853

How many people downsize when the reach retirement…The number must be very low. Most people that buy do so that they will have somewhere to live come retirement when their income drops. These people don’t benefit from higher house prices unless they downsize.

likewise you assume that immigration is low paid in most cases it’s not it’s qualified people coming to work here being paid good money.

houses are expensive to build and if a developer can’t make a profit because it costs more to build than he/she will get when selling houses won’t be built. This is what happened for 10 years and one of the main reasons we have a shortage of housing. Unless they are able to build cheaper due to lower land, material and labour costs then there won’t be cheaper houses regardless of who is in government.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119610762#Comment_119610762

Add to that they seemed to have moved home to sort paperwork for HAP. The women has given up he retail job as she is stressed. Now maybe she is, however it may also qualify them for higher HAP or if she is at the end stage of her course she my need more time to study.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119610853#Comment_119610853

Last Sunday the Sunday Independent did an article on average house prices across the country, county by county.

Other than Dublin, Galway city and to a certain extent Cork city houses are affordable in the rest of the country.

There is still houses to be bought at or below building cost. However to an extent there is an attitude that the house you buy must be a show house or if not you should be able to completely refurbish to this level.

Dublin suffers for labour costs. Most trades people and construction workers working in Dublin are from outside the city. Because of demand they can now get decent paying work adjacent to them. It takes extremely high rates to attract them into Dublin to work. I cannot see how those rates will reduce as there is too much demand building up outside Dublin

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611006#Comment_119611006

There is virtually no money to be made downsizing unless you have a house in the million+ bracket or are willing to move into a **** apartment.

I cannot see labour costs dropping in Dublin substantially. The cost of traveling into the city is horrendous. Most trades people have midsized or large vans these cost 80 cent-a euro/KM to run, add payment for 2-3 hours travelling. Materials may drop back a bit but not until oil and gas prices drop. Professional costs are crazy in construction at present however certification for building standard's and energy upgrades will keep these high.

You are basically left with land costs. However it takes 2-5 years to get sites to build stage. Interest rising will add cost to this.

How many capital cities in the developed world has reasonable housing costs

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611010#Comment_119611010

What is the average income in each of those cheaper counties?

Its much lower than you think. Irish incomes are lower than most people think, incomes outside the cities are way lower.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611069#Comment_119611069

Are barbers paid less, or retail? I’m asking seriously, I don’t know. Is there city weighting in the Public Service, do barbers earn less? Certainly in a recent thread on Boards about Barbers prices, the towns were as expensive as Dublin.

So, are incomes really way lower, or, are well paying pharma/IT jobs just more concentrated in Dublin?

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611069#Comment_119611069

Incomes are not that much lower. Minimum wage is statutory access the country. I know very few in construction earning less than 17/ hour when they work locally. They will be working 6 day weeks so are at 38-40 k. Public Service salaries are set at national level. They may be less OT outside Dublin but that is it. Some postmen are working an extra shift 1-2 twice a week. Before and after Christmas they work every Saturday and Sunday.

Very few factory workers in Limerick on less than 50k.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119610853#Comment_119610853

This is anecdotal, but I know two people who have broken up with their partners due to stress caused by an inability to find housing. I would not even like to imagine what its like to have children in this situation.

Also, I think that we need to clear about what is meant by "younger generations." The worst affected generation is, once again, the millennial generation, which is now composed mostly of people in their 30s to early 40s. These are not "young" people. Rather, they are adults who a few decades ago would be homeowners and parents comfortably. Instead, they are burdened with paying for the bad decisions of older generations who will enjoy pensions and retirements that are a pipe-dream for everyone else.  

Of course, many people of this generation are still managing to get a home, but it is a diminishing proportion relative to the whole. Furthermore, to buy a house means taking on hundreds of thousands of euros in debt with rising interest rates on the horizon.  

To speak for myself, I am sickened by what I have seen here in the last few years. Maybe I am naïve, but it seems to me that in the past, people cared more for the well-being of the future generations. Today, it would seem that we only think of lining our own nests, consequences be damned.

It's rather a meme to blame boomers, but there is a reason it persists

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611174#Comment_119611174

Its the latter, all the high paying jobs are in Dublin might I say at the minute, things could change especially if Tech Companies slow down and reduce numbers due to poor advertising revenues and consumer spending on non essentials down.

High paid jobs in the manufacturing side of the multinational sector in Ireland is what Ireland needs. Pharma, Medical devices Electronics equipment and microchips manufacturing is what this country needs more of and more evenly spread across Ireland.

I would worry about the smaller data analytics/software development companies in Dublin City center at the min. They are propped up by low interest rates and a credit boom in silicon valley since 2015, when the tightener comes the bigger firms will reduce numbers (contractors first) and keep operations going but these small firms piggybacking off the Heavies will pull out of Ireland altogether.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611268#Comment_119611268

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611174#Comment_119611174

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/cirgdp/countyincomesandregionalgdp2019/

Table 5 in above cso link is a good one, shows average total income per person on a county by county basis. The "cheaper counties" for housing outside the cities, have much lower total incomes. Which really is something we all already know.

mcsean2163

This sold for 785k in July.

https://www.schnittgerbourne.com/residential-properties/43-la-touche-park

It's a 2 story house that has a fairly decent garden.

This has just come on the market.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/24-la-touche-park-greystones-co-wicklow-a63de98/4642165

I find myself at a loss....

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611553#Comment_119611553

I think it shows how much value people place on a house that needs absolutely no work. That first house is habitable, sure, but needs new everything

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611677#Comment_119611677

The second house is also in Greystones, which is an extremely good area.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611709#Comment_119611709

I think the point was that they're both on the same road

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611384#Comment_119611384

Did you perchance read the bit in the blue box at the end? This is why I asked if the higher incomes in Dublin/lower incomes outside was associated with the higher concentration of high paying jobs in Dublin associated with MNCs.

As we were talking about a barber and someone working in retail/HSE eventually, I took it that you were saying their income would be much less outside Dublin. Maybe that is what you are saying, if not, my mistake.

dontmindme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611553#Comment_119611553

They're both similar size houses and the second one is in turnkey condition.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611553#Comment_119611553

Which part are you struggling with?

They are both in a nice area, both almost the same size, one is two story, the other is a dormer, one has a larger garden but looks dated (love the carpet in the bathroom) the other has been refurbed/modernised etc.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611946#Comment_119611946

Of course higher average incomes in cities will be skewed by higher presence of MNCs. However even in smaller businesses in cities, the pay is often marginally above that in rural towns. A barber will definitely make more (and charge much more) in Dublin than out in the sticks. So do tattoo artists, so do bar staff, etc etc.

Trades are relatively highly paid countrywide due to big shortages, but a tradesman in Dublin will still make more money than one in Wexford, and far more than one in Leitrim. The idea that houses are much more affordable if people would just move out of urban areas to poorer counties is a bit of a fallacy - poor counties are poor due to a lack of well paying jobs!

Hello all ye knowledgeable folks. Looking for a bit of advice. My wife and I currently have mortgage approved and are house hunting. Do you think we should hold off for 12 months or go for it. Seen one or two potential properties but nothing we really love. Any advice would be much appreciated. Although we both see some sort of downturn coming, not sure it will be anything too significant regarding house prices. Maybe a better choice of house / selection in 12 months time? We are currently renting and its €1300 per month so not massive but not cheap either. Cheers.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612061#Comment_119612061

Marginally more, or “a lot” more?.

Again, there is a thread about barbers prices on Boards, surprisingly, barbers in rural towns where there was less competition charged more than a lot of Dublin ones. It costs me €25, and I’m about an hour outside the M50. If you head over to the construction threads, you will see that tradesmen are approx the same countrywide.

Of course it is dependent on job/income, no point in looking at a cheaper house if your wage falls off a cliff. But are there that many jobs which are paid far less outside Dublin? I can’t think of many, do Dunnes or Penny’s pay less, the Public Service pay less, are mechanics, plumbers, painters paid less? Maybe they are, but you haven’t shown me anything to support that they are paid “a lot” less.

pinksoir

There seems to me to be a glaring issue in the housing situation, and that's where older folk are supposed to downsize to.

In my mum's estate there are a huge amount of elderly people in large 4 bed, 2 storey houses. A large proportion want to downsize but want to stay in the area close to friends and family, and the general familiarity. These are houses where only 2 rooms get any use, are cold and expensive to heat, not worth/too costly to retrofit etc.

The area is Dundrum in Dublin. This is a place that was essentially countryside when I was growing up, but grew at the fastest rate of any town in the country. Before the extensive development began in the 2000s, most people who lived out this way were older, having bought in the 70s/80s and had families. But during this explosion of development, no thought was given to the fact that in 20-30 years these same people would need somewhere to downsize to.

The option appears to be apartments, of which there seems to be little appetite, or else competing on the parallel market for small purpose built downsizer homes. I don't know of many in the vicinity. Of course, the other option is to compete with lower income/FTB for smaller houses, but then most of these are 2 storey which isn't ideal for those with mobility issues.

This is probably replicated across Dublin. There are countless family homes that are housing older couples or singles, who would happily downsize but there is nothing to incentivise them to do so. So instead these family homes mainly get recycled back into the market when these folk die.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612002#Comment_119612002

Still looking in Wicklow and 800 for a bungalow with no garden gave me a fright. I guess greystones is Dublin now....

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612114#Comment_119612114

It’s a dormer, it does have a garden, and that area is pretty nice.

Listen, before you post anymore houses that frighten you, take a look at the overall picture, the house, the condition, the site, it’s location, demand in that area etc, honestly it’ll save you having to put your head under the couch every time you look at daft.ie.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612108#Comment_119612108

You have made multiple assertions here and provided no evidence.

I have shown you CSO information proving lower incomes outside of the cities. The CSO notes do not make any mention of MNC wages specifically or anything to that effect.

And €25 euro for a haircut outside Dublin is insane. It costs me 12, not that anecdotal data from here or a boards thread on barbers proves much. I have already given you the data that proves lower total incomes (including benefits!) outside the cities. Your own assertions require you provide some proof.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612076#Comment_119612076

Careful you came to the wrong place for advice. Lots of people with self interest. You need to look at your own circumstances - family (kids), employment, what your paying now vs what you would be paying.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612201#Comment_119612201

Timmy, average income will of course be higher in Dublin where there is a concentration of the highest paying jobs, and less where jobs are agri/manufacturing based. Is that in dispute?

But are barbers/retail staff paid less outside Dublin? Are there many jobs which are paid a lot less? You made the statement, not me.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612061#Comment_119612061

Seeing as how you are talking about barbers recently the lad I go to get my hair cut was looking to employ a second barber any trained lad was looking for 20+/ hour and that is 10+ miles from Limerick city

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119612217#Comment_119612217

Cheers, thanks for the reply. There seems to be alot of economists on here so I thought this would be a great place to ask? Our mortgage would probably be the same as our rent now, but the options to buy are so limited at the moment. I guess we would just be buying for the sake of it which doesn't feel right.