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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    But you can just move to these counties and work in local offices - or move jobs - you don't have to stay with your current job.

    The reason why people don't move is cause they don't want to cause friends/family are in Dublin - yet again do you think they are going to decide now to forget about these and move abroad?

    There is a correlation (likely causation too) between the growth of the rental market (and by extension the purchase market) and net immigration the last few years. Where do you think the MNCs have predominantly been hiring; it isn't in the pool of "highly educated" (IDA shpiel) workforce here. A lot of the jobs created have been filled from workers abroad. These are the people I am talking about moving home to their friends and family in other EU countries.

    If there is a correlation between jobs created, immigration and the rental market the last few years, then the reversal or at least a slower increase in new jobs being created in MNCs in the short to medium term should correlate with a decline in rents and therefore a decline in house prices considering the rental market's bubble pushing up house prices. This of course all ignores the possibility of an economic decline, I'm still assuming economic growth leading to jobs being created!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    There is a correlation (likely causation too) between the growth of the rental market (and by extension the purchase market) and net immigration the last few years. Where do you think the MNCs have predominantly been hiring; it isn't in the pool of "highly educated" (IDA shpiel) workforce here. A lot of the jobs created have been filled from workers abroad. These are the people I am talking about moving home to their friends and family in other EU countries.

    If there is a correlation between jobs created, immigration and the rental market the last few years, then the reversal or at least a slower increase in new jobs being created in MNCs in the short to medium term should correlate with a decline in rents and therefore a decline in house prices considering the rental market's bubble pushing up house prices. This of course all ignores the possibility of an economic decline, I'm still assuming economic growth leading to jobs being created!

    You also have to factor in people returning to Ireland from other countries for some of the same reasons. Then look at Brexit and the number of Irish people moving back from the UK. I know a couple of people who already returned and 3 more families will be back in Ireland by the end of 2022.

    Either way, any downward pressure on rents/house prices which is not manufactured by more government meddling is to be welcomed.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,090 ✭✭✭jill_valentine


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    Well there is nothing stopping people in Dublin moving to Galway/Cork/Limerick and have lower rents, lower eating/drink out expenses, lower insurance, and potential still be on the same salary - but anytime that is mentioned in a thread here - it's a big no no, because they won't be beside friends and family, but now we are led to believe that these same folk will pack bags and move off to Spain because it's Sunny and lower taxes etc.

    The overwhelming thing keeping me, and I daresay many others in Dublin who'd otherwise move, is the reliability of available work, and I would say that's by far the main point I've seen raised here as the issue with moving out of Dublin, I know I've said as much here anyway. Secondary consideration is infrastructural stuff that's less important if work from home is a goer anyway.

    I haven't really seen the friends and family thing argued much, and in my experience the rent issue means me and my friends couldn't really settle near each other anyway, I can't afford an expectation of being within two hours of my friends or family so that's not something I'd consider or miss.


  • Administrators Posts: 54,110 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    The overwhelming thing keeping me, and I daresay many others in Dublin who'd otherwise move, is the reliability of available work, and I would say that's by far the main point I've seen raised here as the issue with moving out of Dublin, I know I've said as much here anyway. Secondary consideration is infrastructural stuff that's less important if work from home is a goer anyway.

    I haven't really seen the friends and family thing argued much, and in my experience the rent issue means me and my friends couldn't really settle near each other anyway, I can't afford an expectation of being within two hours of my friends or family so that's not something I'd consider or miss.

    As in what happens if you lose or need to leave your current job?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,729 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Hubertj wrote:
    Either way, any downward pressure on rents/house prices which is not manufactured by more government meddling is to be welcomed.


    Have you got examples of government meddling that resulted in downward pressure on rents/ house prices?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    awec wrote: »
    This is where you are making a leap. You are assuming that if they can do it for a few staff, they can easily do it for all.

    Facebook are building a brand new HQ in Ballsbridge. Do you think they're building this for their staff who live in Poland? Google have submitted plans last week to build more office space. Do you think they're doing this for their staff who live in Spain? Apple secured more office space in Cork a few months ago. Is this for their staff who live in the UK? TikTok took out a ten year lease on a very large office recently, is this for their staff who will live in France?

    As with everything, things are far more nuanced than some want to believe.


    They are actually. They will be entitled to come work in Ireland if they want.
    As will staff from any other EU country


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,508 ✭✭✭fliball123


    awec wrote: »
    It's not a major shift, that's the point. It's in the news because it's interesting.

    Of all of Facebook's staff, a minority will be allowed to be remote. Of that minority, and even smaller minority will be allowed to work from outside of Ireland. This is interesting, but it's not seismic, it's not "devastating", it's not going to bring us all to our knees.

    I mean to read this thread this morning you'd think Facebook had announced they were leaving Ireland! :D

    I think the point will be within FB when other staff are not allowed do this, they will quite rightly point the finger and say why is mr/miss x, y and z allowed to do it. It wont be long till its company wide. Once other MNCs see this as a MAJOR work incentive for the cream of the crop when recruiting new talent the others will have the choice to stand still or to compete.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,908 ✭✭✭zom


    Even with SF in government?
    If it only was that easy but I afraid people from SF love money not much less than people from FF / FG.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,817 ✭✭✭✭Ace2007


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    They are actually. They will be entitled to come work in Ireland if they want.
    As will staff from any other EU country

    So all these staff will want to come work in Ireland, despite many on here saying that people will want to leave Ireland because of tax, costs etc.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Have you got examples of government meddling that resulted in downward pressure on rents/ house prices?

    Any examples of government intervention having any positive impact on the property market? That’s my point.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,090 ✭✭✭jill_valentine


    awec wrote: »
    As in what happens if you lose or need to leave your current job?

    Exactly, yeah. I come from the country and you're just so reliant on being able to or wanting to stay where you're working forever, and it's precarious. If the big factory or one of the five or six companies in the nearest business park go, you're in big trouble.

    In Dublin, if my company fell over tomorrow, I could be very confident of getting something within a few weeks, no matter how crappy, to keep the lights on. Some of the folks I went to school with stayed in around the village and when they're out of work it's months. I would have been terrified of buying a house outside of Dublin until recently for that reason, it's a very big bet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj




  • Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭IAmTheReign


    Not at all :) I said 50% - 75% within two years. The start of this fall would begin around July/ August. It's the 10th June. Still c. three months to go.


    If I'm right and it's even quicker, even I will be slightly amazed.

    You said this back in November.
    If you’re willing to pay asking, I would call the EA and say you will pay asking but no more and you need the answer by Friday or you will look elsewhere. Unless you’re incredibly unlucky and someone else falls for his selling technique, he’ll ring and offer it to you. The demand isn’t there so I wouldn’t fall for the sales tactic.

    You didn’t mention the asking price or where the property is, but if you’re willing to pay asking, you should also expect the value to fall by c. 50% over the next two years and by much more over the lifetime of your mortgage if your getting one IMO

    This should become clear over the next 6 months as the fog of COVID goes away. Demand wasn’t there pre-COVID and COVID has proved a godsend to the EAs covering this part up.

    But if you need to buy, you need to buy.


    So back in November you said that prices would drop by 20% over the next two years and that it would begin in 6 months. 7 months later and it's still 2 years to see these fabled property price drops?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    You said this back in November.




    So back in November you said that prices would drop by 20% over the next two years and that it would begin in 6 months. 7 months later and it's still 2 years to see these fabled property price drops?

    2 years from November 2020 is November 2022... and I said "as the fog of COVID goes away".

    It's only beginning to clear now :)

    Hence the recent Facebook, AIB etc. moves.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Hubertj wrote: »
    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/st-peter-s-91-ailesbury-road-dublin-4-dublin-d04f9f2/4507050

    Looks like it doesn’t have a back garden. Pictures only show a small terrace?

    Correct. According to the IT;
    While the gardens were reduced many years ago to accommodate an apartment block next door, what remains to the rear is a paved area with a large cut-stone shed, and a fine-sized plot with both vehicular and pedestrian access to the front.

    It has also "remained idle" for ten years. I presume this means vacant?

    €4.85m - not a hope.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Have you got examples of government meddling that resulted in downward pressure on rents/ house prices?


    Im afraid its upward only pressure on housing from our government. :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    So all these staff will want to come work in Ireland, despite many on here saying that people will want to leave Ireland because of tax, costs etc.


    Actually they do want to come to work in Ireland.
    There are 10s of thousands of people who have moved to Ireland to work.
    And many more expected in the future.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Correct. According to the IT;



    It has also "remained ideal" for ten years. I presume this means vacant?

    €4.85m - not a hope.

    I have no idea about the price but I don’t see the point in having a very large family home with no garden. For me, the lack of garden will make it difficult to sell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭IAmTheReign


    2 years from November 2020 is November 2022... and I said "as the fog of COVID goes away".

    It's only beginning to clear now :)

    Hence the recent Facebook, AIB etc. moves.

    Your prediction 7 months ago was that prices would start to drop in 6 months. Your prediction today was that it will happen in the next 3 months.

    Your prediction 7 months ago was that prices would drop 50% in the next 2 years. Your prediction today was that prices would drop 50% in the next 2 years.

    Your attempts to predict property price drops is like someone trying to find the end of a rainbow. It's always just beyond the horizon.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Your prediction 7 months ago was that prices would start to drop in 6 months. Your prediction today was that it will happen in the next 3 months.

    Your prediction 7 months ago was that prices would drop 50% in the next 2 years. Your prediction today was that prices would drop 50% in the next 2 years.

    Your attempts to predict property price drops is like someone trying to find the end of a rainbow. It's always just beyond the horizon.


    Thats how property price predictions go :)
    Ive been pushing my predictions of a housing collapse out not for the last 4 years. :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,277 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Not at all :) I said 50% - 75% within two years. The start of this fall would begin around July/ August. It's the 10th June. Still c. three months to go.


    If I'm right and it's even quicker, even I will be slightly amazed.

    the start of the fall? so now we get 24 months from july august of your ramblings about the massive fall in property prices :( i thought it would be over in september.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,277 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    3 months

    which makes sense as you wont fall foul of tax residency laws, but how practical is that for most people?

    you need 2 properties really.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 311 ✭✭SmokyMo


    Those us housing market threads are everywhere now

    https://twitter.com/APhilosophae/status/1402434266970140676?s=20


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Sheeps wrote: »
    This thread is the best description of what is currently going on with politics around the Irish housing crisis. Only it's about New York.

    Except the man with the simplistic orange tale is wrong.

    If building masses of new houses brought prices down as a matter of natural economic law, why did house prices explode in Ireland when we were building close to 100k houses a year in 2005-2006? Why do house prices continue to spiral out of control in places like Australia despite huge amount of units constantly coming on stream.

    The supply and demand parrots really really really need to start thinking harder or enroll in an economics course because it's simply the wrong answer and repeating it doesn't make it true.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Yurt! wrote: »
    Except the man with the simplistic orange tale is wrong.

    If building masses of new houses brought prices down as a matter of natural economic law, why did house prices explode in Ireland when we were building close to 100k houses a year in 2005-2006? Why do house prices continue to spiral out of control in places like Australia despite huge amount of units constantly coming on stream.

    The supply and demand parrots really really really need to start thinking harder or enroll in an economics course because it's simply the wrong answer and repeating it doesn't make it true.


    Demand was massive back then. Dont you remember.
    It was only after the crash that demand plummeted.
    And now instead of 100% mortgages fueling the demand. Its councils and REITs coming in with the money to suck it all up.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    Demand was massive back then. Dont you remember.
    It was only after the crash that demand plummeted.
    And now instead of 100% mortgages fueling the demand. Its councils and REITs coming in with the money to suck it all up.


    Mostly incorrect. I do remember, I had family members who thought they had become JR Ewing from Dallas overnight. Demand from buy to let landlords who were convinced by banks and media that they had figured out a free money forever scheme was massive. Real demand (natural demographic growth and immigraton) was relatively high, but 100k units a year was about half of what was being constructed in the UK at the time. It was lunacy - and supply and demand was only a marginal driver of the activity.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,763 ✭✭✭Sheeps


    Yurt! wrote: »
    Except the man with the simplistic orange tale is wrong.

    If building masses of new houses brought prices down as a matter of natural economic law, why did house prices explode in Ireland when we were building close to 100k houses a year in 2005-2006? Why do house prices continue to spiral out of control in places like Australia despite huge amount of units constantly coming on stream.

    The supply and demand parrots really really really need to start thinking harder or enroll in an economics course because it's simply the wrong answer and repeating it doesn't make it true.

    The example you've given in 2005-2006 was literally down to demand and supply. House prices increased because there was not enough supply to meet the demand. It just so happened that the demand was artificially high because of lack of lending regulations, immoral lending practices and the availability of credit to the general public. People were buying 3 or 4 houses back then, being allowed to borrow up to 110% of the house price.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Cyrus wrote: »
    the start of the fall? so now we get 24 months from july august of your ramblings about the massive fall in property prices :( i thought it would be over in september.

    I believe I was very clear about my assumptions and when they would start to take effect from the start?

    The new lockdowns at the start of the year just temporarily held back that flood of second-hand and probate sales about to hit the market.

    I would also reckon many of the properties owned by some of the funds that haven't managed to lock in those long-term lease agreements will start to re-enter the market in mass in the next few months. They will definitely want to take advantage of that first mover advantage thing before what's happening begins to click with the local average investor.

    And on top of that, the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland predicted today that we will most likely build a similar number of new homes this year as to last i.e. c. 21,000.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Sheeps wrote: »
    The example you've given in 2005-2006 was literally down to demand and supply. House prices increased because there was not enough supply to meet the demand. It just so happened that the demand was artificially high because of lack of lending regulations, immoral lending practices and the availability of credit to the general public.


    Johnny and Mary public servant drinking an out of control bank's kool-aid in a cheap money environment thinking a property portfolio of a dozen rental units (that will appreciate until time immemorial) is natural has very little to do with orthodox supply and demand.

    There'll always be a 'demand' for fantasy land get rich quick schemes. Was the lending and construction at the time linked to actual demographic and immigration need? Again, only if you believe in fairytales.

    The proposition that constructing units will bring down prices as a matter of natural economic law is false and has been proven false in many circumstances; which is the crux of your and Mr Orange NYC's simplistic argument. One of the examples is Ireland in the early 2000s. - if almost unlimited supply far in excess of need brings down property prices, why did we see property prices metastasize out of all control? Because if what you say is true, then prices would have cooled. They didn't, the opposite happened and they went wild.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,763 ✭✭✭Sheeps


    I believe I was very clear about my assumptions and when they would start to take effect from the start?

    The new lockdowns at the start of the year just temporarily held back that flood of second-hand and probate sales about to hit the market.

    I would also reckon many of the properties owned by some of the funds that haven't managed to lock in those long-term lease agreements will start to re-enter the market in mass in the next few months. They will definitely want to take advantage of that first mover advantage thing before what's happening begins to click with the local average investor.

    And on top of that, the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland predicted today that we will most likely build a similar number of new homes this year as to last i.e. c. 21,000.
    There is absolutely nothing going on right now that would lead me to believe that there is a property crash coming. If anything we can expect houses to rise for the next while, as people spend their lockdown savings.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Sheeps wrote: »
    The example you've given in 2005-2006 was literally down to demand and supply. House prices increased because there was not enough supply to meet the demand. It just so happened that the demand was artificially high because of lack of lending regulations, immoral lending practices and the availability of credit to the general public. People were buying 3 or 4 houses back then, being allowed to borrow up to 110% of the house price.

    One important thing needs to be added on demand side was inflation and immigration.
    Due to ongoing inflation, although by many were seeing as house prices are overvalued, people were speculating that currency would devalue fairly quick.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Sheeps wrote: »
    There is absolutely nothing going on right now that would lead me to believe that there is a property crash coming. If anything we can expect houses to rise for the next while, as people spend their lockdown savings.

    The thing is, an extra 10k in savings the last year doesn't mean a whole lot if you are on the same salary considering borrowing limits. Instead of having, for example 10% of a 400k house price as a deposit you now have 12.5%. You're borrowing 350k instead of 360k over the 25/30 years. That's not going to further inflate house prices. The last year has been a dead cat bounce against the declines already taking place pre covid.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Marius34 wrote: »
    One important thing needs to be added on demand side was inflation and immigration.
    Due to ongoing inflation, although by many were seeing as house prices are overvalued, people were speculating that currency would devalue fairly quick.


    What inflation? Inflation, then as now was tightly controlled within bands by the ECB. The inflation was modest as per stated policy and there was no one running around worried about the euro devaluing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,977 ✭✭✭enricoh


    Sheeps wrote: »
    There is absolutely nothing going on right now that would lead me to believe that there is a property crash coming. If anything we can expect houses to rise for the next while, as people spend their lockdown savings.

    The government (the dominant player in the market according to no less than the taoiseach) surely has to tighten spending on housing with all the financial headwinds coming thick and fast now.

    As prices continue to rise more and more people are saying I'll have one too to social housing.
    I don't think it's any way sustainable.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Yurt! wrote: »
    What inflation? Inflation, then as now was tightly controlled within bands by the ECB. The inflation was modest as per stated policy and there was no one running around worried about the euro devaluing.

    Between 2000 to 2008, inflation was fluctuating between 2%-6%, averaging around 4%. The income increase where growing even faster.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,126 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Yurt! wrote: »
    Johnny and Mary public servant drinking an out of control bank's kool-aid in a cheap money environment thinking a property portfolio of a dozen rental units (that will appreciate until time immemorial) is natural has very little to do with orthodox supply and demand.

    There'll always be a 'demand' for fantasy land get rich quick schemes. Was the lending and construction at the time linked to actual demographic and immigration need? Again, only if you believe in fairytales.

    The proposition that constructing units will bring down prices as a matter of natural economic law is false and has been proven false in many circumstances; which is the crux of your and Mr Orange NYC's simplistic argument. One of the examples is Ireland in the early 2000s. - if almost unlimited supply far in excess of need brings down property prices, why did we see property prices metastasize out of all control? Because if what you say is true, then prices would have cooled. They didn't, the opposite happened and they went wild.

    Yes and as we keep saying - it was a bubble inflated by wild speculation and cheap credit, and when it burst houses became very cheap (over cheap tbh).
    That does not disprove supply and demand - if anything it reinforces its legitimacy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Marius34 wrote: »
    Between 2000 to 2008, inflation was fluctuating between 2%-6%, averaging around 4%. The income increase where growing even faster.

    For workers who have kept their job through the pandemic they would want to have seen their salaries increase 10% in order to feel a benefit this year. Otherwise they will be in the same position financially as last year. If a salary increase was not given last year because rot the pandemic well then I hope those workers are prepared to ask for 10% this year unless they want to feel the brunt of inflation over the coming months.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 311 ✭✭SmokyMo


    For workers who have kept their job through the pandemic they would want to have seen their salaries increase 10% in order to feel a benefit this year. Otherwise they will be in the same position financially as last year. If a salary increase was not given last year because rot the pandemic well then I hope those workers are prepared to ask for 10% this year unless they want to feel the brunt of inflation over the coming months.

    How did you come to 10% figure?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,277 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    I believe I have always stated it's around July/August where I see big movements happening. We'll find out within three months I guess.

    Big movemements in July and August is what you said props :cool:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    timmyntc wrote: »
    Yes and as we keep saying - it was a bubble inflated by wild speculation and cheap credit, and when it burst houses became very cheap (over cheap tbh).
    That does not disprove supply and demand - if anything it reinforces its legitimacy.


    I'm trying not to be haughty here, but supply and demand theory is economics 101, and all things being equal, holds that transacting between buyer and seller will result in equilibrium. Bubbles and frankly thick transacting behavior due to exogenous variables to demand for goods violate the supply/demand theoretical framework. Which is why they are studied, and why have economists in governing institutions trying to save us from cowboys who just shout supply and demand when things go haywire.


    If you want to hold that the beginning, middle and end cycles of the celtic tiger housing mess bore any relation to equilibrium and underlying demand for the public goods of housing in the behavior of transacting parties and the outcome for the country at large, go ahead. And at the risk of haughtyness again, anyone who's sat down in a first year economics tutorial who would try to make the case that supply and demand of housing was propelling the market and prices at the time would see their tutor with their head in their hands asking you to leave the room.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Yurt! wrote: »
    Mostly incorrect. I do remember, I had family members who thought they had become JR Ewing from Dallas overnight. Demand from buy to let landlords who were convinced by banks and media that they had figured out a free money forever scheme was massive. Real demand (natural demographic growth and immigraton) was relatively high, but 100k units a year was about half of what was being constructed in the UK at the time. It was lunacy - and supply and demand was only a marginal driver of the activity.


    No. Its all correct.
    It was a demand driven boom.
    All was well until the demand left.
    Then you were left with massive over supply.
    Same will happen again.
    But this time at least normal people wont be over stretched as much as last time.


  • Site Banned Posts: 52 ✭✭propertyseeker


    Fascinating twitter thread on Black Rock purchasing entire neighborhoods in America.
    Exact same situation throughout West

    https://twitter.com/APhilosophae/status/1402434266970140676?s=20


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    In case anyone is interested, Google the Australian Housing Supply Myth. First link will take you to a peer-reviewed academic article blowing the 'supply/demand' wheeze out of the water. Aus has long had enough supply for both natural growth and immigration needs, there are other, far more relevant culprits generating the housing price sham. He notes these variables are at play both in Aus and other markets and (basically) that the 'supply/demand' mantra is used by those that stand to gain to fool thicko politicians and consumers as to the source of the problem.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    No. Its all correct.
    It was a demand driven boom.
    All was well until the demand left.
    Then you were left with massive over supply.
    Same will happen again.
    But this time at least normal people wont be over stretched as much as last time.


    Sorry, but holding up a historic housing explosion as an example of supply/demand framework operating as it should is not just toying with ignorance, you're in the deep end of ignorance with a snorkel.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    SmokyMo wrote: »
    How did you come to 10% figure?

    Apologies, it was a bit arbitrary, based on inflation hitting 4% combined with housing costs increasing I feel that a salary increase of 10% is what would be needed just to notice more money in your pocket, otherwise you're just about keeping pace with or else losing to the cost of living increase.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Yurt! wrote: »
    In case anyone is interested, Google the Australian Housing Supply Myth. First link will take you to a peer-reviewed academic article blowing the 'supply/demand' wheeze out of the water. Aus has long had enough supply for both natural growth and immigration needs, there are other, far more relevant culprits generating the housing price sham. He notes these variables are at play both in Aus and other markets and (basically) that the 'supply/demand' mantra is used by those that stand to gain to fool thicko politicians and consumers as to the source of the problem.


    I dont think you understand what demand means :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    I dont think you understand what demand means :)


    :):):):)


    I can say with confidence you don't have the foggiest about what you're on about. Be honest, have you ever even taken an undergraduate level economics class? Remember, lies make baby Jesus cry.


    :):):):)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,763 ✭✭✭Sheeps


    A classic appeal to authority, the sign of someone who has lost an argument.


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