Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Ace2007

fliball123 wrote: »

Doe it say that in the article?

Facebook announced on Wednesday that it would open remote work to all levels of employees once the pandemic is over, with anyone whose role can be done remotely able to request it from next week. Staff who move to a different country will then be subject to local employment laws and taxes, the company said.

It stressed, however, that some functions will have to remain at Facebook’s EMEA headquarters in Dublin.

Workers who move to a lower cost region may see their pay reduced, depending on local market rates, and will be encouraged to go to the office at times to facilitate team building.

So lower pay, potential worseing employment laws, will the dole exist, what about their pension benefits, what about health insurance, will they still get 25 days off per year.

Some folk here seem to think that anyone that moves will be able to keep all their benefits and have the upside on living expenses/weather.:rolleyes:

Nijmegen

Ace2007 wrote: »

Also those who move abroad would be having their salaries changed to take account of said new location - you know - lower standard of living = pay cut - but again that's being left out of a lot of posts...

JimmyVik wrote: »

When this is done ion our company you get the choice of the local pay scale straight away or you can to keep your Irish salary for the first year and then you have to move to the local pay grade.
In practice the people who have moved have always kept the Irish salary as the pay for their jobs is crap compared to the Irish salary in the other countries.
You also lose your pension benefits straight away on moving abroad.

I think different companies will come up with different solutions for this. You can still pay a competitive wage in another country and be cheaper than Ireland - and as the old expression goes, a dollar is a dollar in your home country. Grabbing quickly Numbeo data for Dublin versus Lithuania on rent you have a 290% premium in Dublin, to buy an apartment in the city a 131% premium. On salaries you have a 202% premium. So Facebook or whoever could cut your salary but still leave you with greater purchasing power.

Plus, you cut out having to spend half your holidays "going home" to see family and so on... Before we get into "Hey, all these other cities have better x" (Dublin has a lot going for it, mind you, if you're a young person in particular)

I think there's a lot of uncertainty this creates and as well as having a top class FDI agency we probably want to get top class on making a better case for people to live here.

Although actually and to be on topic about our property market... any collapse in state revenues and economic activity will at least see a fall in rental prices......................

JimmyVik

Ace2007 wrote: »

So lower pay, potential worseing employment laws, will the dole exist, what about their pension benefits, what about health insurance, will they still get 25 days off per year.

Some folk here seem to think that anyone that moves will be able to keep all their benefits and have the upside on living expenses/weather.:rolleyes:

I think most of those people are thinking back to their holidays abroad.
Speaking as someone who is sick to death of working in other countries for long spells, I can tell you that holidays in another country and working are two totally different things.

fergus1001

am I right in saying that the supply demand thing breaks down when the people who are demanding the supply can no longer afford the price therefore reducing demand

that's what I see happening here

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

I think most of those people are thinking back to their holidays abroad.
Speaking as someone who is sick to death of working in other countries for long spells, I can tell you that holidays in another country and working are two totally different things.

I don't think posters are referring to primarily Irish people upping sticks and moving (even though many have partnered up with citizens of other EU countries and may take the plunge). It's more the non-Irish who have no roots here that would likely take the plunge if offered it.

I also think people need to be reminded of what those projected c. 35k residential units we require each year out to 2030 comprise of i.e. c. 18,000 for natural growth, c. 5,000 for "obsolescence" (hardly probable IMO) and the rest reliant on positive net inward migration of c. 30,000 people per annum i.e. they're based on immigration beating emigration by 30,000 people each year out to 2030. It was negative just a few years ago.

Either way, we should know which way the wind in blowing come the end of August and things appear to be moving very fast on this one and the government does appear to have been caught off-guard by its very real and possibly negative implications to their income tax revenues and the commercial market (offices, retail etc.), the residential rental market and the buy to own residential property market.

Sheeps

fergus1001 wrote: »

am I right in saying that the supply demand thing breaks down when the people who are demanding the supply can no longer afford the price therefore reducing demand

that's what I see happening here

Simplified, demand doesn't reduce when someone can't afford supply. That being said, the housing market is complex, so for there are different demand forces at play in different segments of the market that mean certain parts of the market have less demand and higher supply.

Cyrus

jill_valentine wrote: »

This is it. People might point to lower local wages, but what kind of city are they getting in return? Dublin has **** all going for it in terms of facilities, public transport, even public spaces. Bins and toilets are the tip of the iceberg.

If you're talking about somebody with the marketability - and now mobility - to live anywhere, does Dublin offer them a better basic standard of city life before considering pay differential than Barcelona, Munich etc? I really don't think so.

Our fairly adversarial attitude to public utility could come back to haunt us in years to come. Dublin's just not a very nice city to live in. Individual salaries don't change that.

Facebook havent opened new offices in these places, they are already there, so given that fact why the hell are people here in the first place if their life would be so much better in Barcelona or Munich?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

Facebook havent opened new offices in these places, they are already there, so given that fact why the hell are people here in the first place if their life would be so much better in Barcelona or Munich?

Up to now, it has been optics. To make it look like this was their real base for tax purposes. For example, most of Google's R&D etc. is already done in other EU countries.

Given all the changes over the past 18 months (e.g. WFH, accelerating global tax changes etc. etc.) they most likely have figured out there's no real benefit to pretending otherwise anymore, have asked their lawyers to look into it and they have come back saying it shouldn't pose a problem and are now taking the plunge.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Up to now, it has been optics. To make it look like this was their real base for tax purposes. For example, most of Google's R&D etc. is already done in other EU countries.

Given all the changes over the past 18 months (e.g. WFH, accelerating global tax changes etc. etc.) they most likely have figured out there's no real benefit to pretending otherwise anymore, have asked their lawyers to look into it and they have come back saying it shouldn't pose a problem and are now taking the plunge.

I think the most likely thing is that you haven't a notion what you're talking about, every time this subject pops up you display remarkable ignorance. It has nothing to do with "optics" or needing to make Ireland "look like their base". This is bar stool nonsense.

On a side note, did you miss the bit in the article you posted earlier where Facebook said their Irish headcount will continue to grow?

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

I think the most likely thing is that you haven't a notion what you're talking about.

It has nothing to do with "optics" or needing to make Ireland "look like their base". This is bar stool nonsense.

On a side note, did you miss the bit in the article you posted earlier where Facebook said their Irish headcount will continue to grow?

I would believe it's a good story to push out to try keep everyone (i.e. Irish government) on side for the duration of this transition.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

I would believe it's a good story to push out to try keep everyone (i.e. Irish government) on side for the duration of this transition.

Of course you do.

awec

Cyrus wrote: »

Facebook havent opened new offices in these places, they are already there, so given that fact why the hell are people here in the first place if their life would be so much better in Barcelona or Munich?

Barcelona or Munich may not have had the type of role they were looking for. These companies don't offer every type of job, or every product area, in every office.

Or (and whisper this really quietly) they may have liked the idea of moving to Ireland.

On the other side of the coin, there could be Irish people working for Facebook in Germany for example because Dublin didn't have the role they wanted.

yagan

Another Irish plus for the multinationals is schooling in English which is a lot less daunting for their USA and Indian staff with young families than starting from zero in most other EU countries.

Villa05

Interesting that some posters keep digging for the advantages for multi nationals in basing here yet cheerlead one of the major issues those same multi nationals identify as being an issue and a barrier to investing here

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't think posters are referring to primarily Irish people upping sticks and moving (even though many have partnered up with citizens of other EU countries and may take the plunge). It's more the non-Irish who have no roots here that would likely take the plunge if offered it.

I also think people need to be reminded of what those projected c. 35k residential units we require each year out to 2030 comprise of i.e. c. 18,000 for natural growth, c. 5,000 for "obsolescence" (hardly probable IMO) and the rest reliant on positive net inward migration of c. 30,000 people per annum i.e. they're based on immigration beating emigration by 30,000 people each year out to 2030. It was negative just a few years ago.

Either way, we should know which way the wind in blowing come the end of August and things appear to be moving very fast on this one and the government does appear to have been caught off-guard by its very real and possibly negative implications to their income tax revenues and the commercial market (offices, retail etc.), the residential rental market and the buy to own residential property market.

The ones who came here had the choice of going to any other country before they came here also though. They all chose Ireland for other reasons than the weather, because lets be honest ... the weather is not the best draw here.

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

cheerlead one of the major issues those same multi nationals identify as being an issue and a barrier to investing here

so disagreeing with some of the posters here is cheerleading property prices?

i have yet to see a poster state that prices will increase 50-75% or that increasing prices for property is a good thing, rather people are disagreeing with some of (bizarre at times) logic of those that argue the reverse,

but please show me this cheerleading because i havent seen any.

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

Interesting that some posters keep digging for the advantages for multi nationals in basing here yet cheerlead one of the major issues those same multi nationals identify as being an issue and a barrier to investing here

Clearly multinationals themselves see the advantages in being here themselves.
Also the staff do too. Or they wouldnt have come here in the first place.


What facebook have announced is simply a policy of allowing employees to transfer to another office in their operations abroad for some workers.
As I keep saying. This has always been available with multinationals.

JimmyVik

JimmyVik wrote: »

What facebook have announced is simply a policy of allowing employees to transfer to another office in their operations abroad for some workers.
As I keep saying. This has always been available with multinationals.

You should tell the Dept of Finance/Revenue that you know better, there is no need to be alarmed and this isn’t setting a precedent, it has always been this way.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/allowing-facebook-staff-work-from-abroad-won-t-alter-tax-status-in-ireland-company-says-1.4590104?mode=amp

“Behind the scenes, there is considerable alarm at the Department of Finance at the move by Facebook, with discussions understood to be ongoing between Merrion Street and Revenue.

Sources pointed to the possible loss of income tax from workers who are not resident here, and there is worry that the Facebook move would set a precedent for other companies. One source described the move as “hugely worrying” and said that if it turned into a trend, it would present “enormous challenges to the revenue base”.

yagan

Villa05 wrote: »

Interesting that some posters keep digging for the advantages for multi nationals in basing here yet cheerlead one of the major issues those same multi nationals identify as being an issue and a barrier to investing here

I'm certainly not cheerleading, just pointing out a fact that's unlikely to change anytime soon.

The mismanagement of the property sector that multinationals have complained about affects us too.

The only winners of the governments laissez faire property regulating are specuvesters who always have an eye on the exit.

JimmyVik

Dav010 wrote: »

You should tell the Dept of Finance/Revenue that you know better, there is no need to be alarmed and this isn’t setting a precedent, it has always been this way.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/allowing-facebook-staff-work-from-abroad-won-t-alter-tax-status-in-ireland-company-says-1.4590104?mode=amp

“Behind the scenes, there is considerable alarm at the Department of Finance at the move by Facebook, with discussions understood to be ongoing between Merrion Street and Revenue.

Sources pointed to the possible loss of income tax from workers who are not resident here, and there is worry that the Facebook move would set a precedent for other companies. One source described the move as “hugely worrying” and said that if it turned into a trend, it would present “enormous challenges to the revenue base”.

Whenever you see "Sources have said" in the media, it should be ringing alarm bells about the content of the story...

Exaggeration by the media would be my view here.
Do you honestly think the department of finance and revenue dont know whats allowed and whats not.
Im sure the discussions are going like this "What the hell are facebook on about. Quick, so we can go on the telly and say something."

Yes, if Facebook up sticks and moved all their staff abroad it would be worrying. But they arent. They have told staff if they wish to transfer their job to another country then they can look into it. So, no, nothing is any different today than it was yesterday.

timmyntc

JimmyVik wrote: »

Whenever you see "Sources have said" in the media, it should be ringing alarm bells about the content of the story...

Exaggeration by the media would be my view here.
Do you honestly think the department of finance and revenue dont know whats allowed and whats not.

Yes, if Facebook up sticks and moved all their staff abroad it would be worrying. But they arent. They have told staff if they wish to transfer their job to another country then they can look into it. So, no, nothing is any different today than it was yesterday.

Where is there any indication revenue dont know whats allowed?

They talk of possible loss of income tax from people being based abroad for tax purposes - possible loss because its not set in stone yet that people will move their tax base.
Plenty of potential for workers critical to R&D in Ireland office, working abroad for most of the year and travelling to Ireland office for the odd week or two.

JimmyVik

timmyntc wrote: »

Where is there any indication revenue dont know whats allowed?

They talk of possible loss of income tax from people being based abroad for tax purposes - possible loss because its not set in stone yet that people will move their tax base.
Plenty of potential for workers critical to R&D in Ireland office, working abroad for most of the year and travelling to Ireland office for the odd week or two.

Dont panic. The sky hasnt fallen.
This reminds me of every time a new US president gets elected there is panic that they will remove all the FDI from Ireland after some political speech. Never happens though.

timmyntc

JimmyVik wrote: »

Dont panic. The sky hasnt fallen.
This reminds me of every time a new US president gets elected there is panic that they will remove all the FDI from Ireland after some political speech. Never happens though.

This reminds me of before the crash when people warning of a crash were derided as un-patriotic and fearmongerers.

JimmyVik

timmyntc wrote: »

This reminds me of before the crash when people warning of a crash were derided as un-patriotic and fearmongerers.

You are comparing an announcement from facebook to a worldwide financial disaster?

Lads, I think people are over egging this facebook announcement a little bit
But carry on. Ive nothing else to say on the matter.

timmyntc

JimmyVik wrote: »

You are comparing an announcement from facebook to a worldwide financial disaster?

Lads, I think people are over egging this facebook announcment a little bit

No, I'm comparing your arrogant dismissal of the situation to that of people pre-crash.

The Facebook situation is a warning - its not guaranteed to happen, but if it does it could lead to big loss in income taxes. And if other MNCs adopt similar strategies, some of the R&D and other functions that workers previously had to be based in Ireland for, could be done abroad with only a small core still in Ireland, and the rest travelling to Ireland the odd time, but tax resident abroad.

It's a big potential shakeup which rightly had DoF worried if it takes off.

yagan

Pull back the media exaggeration for a moment it's still a fact that Ireland offers an easy immersion to the EU for English speakers, but on the other hand it is also a fact that this pandemic has made remote working a real option.

We don't know how this will play out fully but I can imagine it being offered as a recruiting incentive and for businesses shrinking office rental overheads is also an incentive to adopt WFH options.

When the single market was created WFH was an extremely rare option, but now it's become an expectation within the single market. I'm sure the tax, healthcare and pension liabilities for workers and businesses will be worked out. This will actually make it harder to farm out work to outside the EEA/EU/Swiss as now the protocols are being led at EU level so loopholes will be easier to spot.

It's inevitable that WFH will impact all property markets, possibly favouring rural/town over city/urban.

timmyntc

yagan wrote: »

Pull back the media exaggeration for a moment it's still a fact that Ireland offers an easy immersion to the EU for English speakers, but on the other hand it is also a fact that this pandemic has made remote working a real option.

We don't know how this will play out fully but I can imagine it being offered as a recruiting incentive and for businesses shrinking office rental overheads is also an incentive to adopt WFH options.

When the single market was created WFH was an extremely rare option, but now it's become an expectation within the single market. I'm sure the tax, healthcare and pension liabilities for workers and businesses will be worked out. This will actually make it harder to farm out work to outside the EEA/EU/Swiss as now the protocols are being led at EU level so loopholes will be easier to spot.

It's inevitable that WFH will impact all property markets, possibly favouring rural/town over city/urban.

Irelands high cost of living (and housing) is the one big deterrent to MNCs and people in general - it's quite difficult to hire at scale from EU into Ireland - the word is out and people have negative connotations about how expensive it is here (rightfully so IMO).

If English speaking staff can work in an English speaking office, but remotely - then I can see many MNCs allowing employees to remote work outside the country for a lower wage - which would still have a better purchasing power in many EU countries.

From employers POV - you still have an employee doing the work, but you save on salary costs & office space. And you can still work tightly together online in the same or similar timezones - so its not comparable to Indian outsourcing in that regard. Keep the productive staff, just pay them less if they are domiciled abroad.

Ozark707

timmyntc wrote: »

No, I'm comparing your arrogant dismissal of the situation to that of people pre-crash.

The Facebook situation is a warning - its not guaranteed to happen, but if it does it could lead to big loss in income taxes. And if other MNCs adopt similar strategies, some of the R&D and other functions that workers previously had to be based in Ireland for, could be done abroad with only a small core still in Ireland, and the rest travelling to Ireland the odd time, but tax resident abroad.

It's a big potential shakeup which rightly had DoF worried if it takes off.

The way I see it is that some companies who might have a strong preference to have all staff based here (for obvious reasons) are now struggling to fill language specific roles for some languages (I know of one lesser spoken language where even smaller companies are really struggling to get people to move here for, in fact they have lost more people than hired in last 12 months). They have a business decision to make. Forego business in these territories or hire locally. If they officially start to hire locally then the existing staff they have here from those countries are highly likely to request to move back.

Marius34

yagan wrote: »

Pull back the media exaggeration for a moment it's still a fact that Ireland offers an easy immersion to the EU for English speakers, but on the other hand it is also a fact that this pandemic has made remote working a real option.

We don't know how this will play out fully but I can imagine it being offered as a recruiting incentive and for businesses shrinking office rental overheads is also an incentive to adopt WFH options.

When the single market was created WFH was an extremely rare option, but now it's become an expectation within the single market. I'm sure the tax, healthcare and pension liabilities for workers and businesses will be worked out. This will actually make it harder to farm out work to outside the EEA/EU/Swiss as now the protocols are being led at EU level so loopholes will be easier to spot.

It's inevitable that WFH will impact all property markets, possibly favouring rural/town over city/urban.

Something I would agree with. And I think it has an impact already. Probably not in the way, and in the scale many would have thought here.

propertyseeker

People forget important aspect
MANY talented people will leave Ireland soon as world open again
These would be same people buying property
It will be like 2010 again
People buy now
5 years time will we look back and feel sorry for them?

Marius34

propertyseeker wrote: »

People forget important aspect
MANY talented people will leave Ireland soon as world open again
These would be same people buying property
It will be like 2010 again
People buy now
5 years time will we look back and feel sorry for them?

We can't know for sure what future will bring, but most likely NOT.

Cyrus

timmyntc wrote: »

No, I'm comparing your arrogant dismissal of the situation to that of people pre-crash.

arrogant dismissal versus massive overreaction.

Cyrus

strange looking job on this place, on the one hand parts are well done, on the other the landscaping would suggest corners have been cut, as would the rear of the garage.... needs to be better for a million quid in shankill imo.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-hedges-2-aubrey-park-shankill-dublin-d18-af10/4507895

cnocbui

Cyrus wrote: »

strange looking job on this place, on the one hand parts are well done, on the other the landscaping would suggest corners have been cut, as would the rear of the garage.... needs to be better for a million quid in shankill imo.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-hedges-2-aubrey-park-shankill-dublin-d18-af10/4507895

How much do you estimate it would cost to bring it up to your spec?

cnocbui

Ozark707 wrote: »

The way I see it is that some companies who might have a strong preference to have all staff based here (for obvious reasons) are now struggling to fill language specific roles for some languages (I know of one lesser spoken language where even smaller companies are really struggling to get people to move here for, in fact they have lost more people than hired in last 12 months). They have a business decision to make. Forego business in these territories or hire locally. If they officially start to hire locally then the existing staff they have here from those countries are highly likely to request to move back.

Yeah, I'd imagine it would be difficult to attract swiss people to live in Ireland.

Cyrus

cnocbui wrote: »

How much do you estimate it would cost to bring it up to your spec?

not sure, the whole driveway would need to be done and the same around the back where those chippings are, large trees at the back need to be cut right back and the finish on the rear of the garage needs to be improved, but not sure what is involved without looking at it.

MacronvFrugals

This is a decent podcast on the Indo earlier about the implications of the FB WFH move and all it could entail


https://www.independent.ie/podcasts/the-big-tech-show/the-big-tech-show-dublin-trembles-as-facebook-says-workers-can-now-work-from-abroad-40527248.html

timmyntc

cnocbui wrote: »

Yeah, I'd imagine it would be difficult to attract swiss people to live in Ireland.

Wouldnt think that Swiss-French or Swiss-German qualified as separate languages?

propertyseeker

Marius34 wrote: »

We can't know for sure what future will bring, but most likely NOT.

It's possibility for each outcome.
I see post of prices never reverting to 2020 levels?
To me this is blasphemy
2020 prices were already overvalued
now w Corona supply further restricted so prices go up
All is temporary
2025-2030 prices will be much lower than now
short term we dont know

cnocbui

timmyntc wrote: »

Wouldnt think that Swiss-French or Swiss-German qualified as separate languages?

I think the Swiss would.

cnocbui

propertyseeker wrote: »

It's possibility for each outcome.
I see post of prices never reverting to 2020 levels?
To me this is blasphemy
2020 prices were already overvalued
now w Corona supply further restricted so prices go up
All is temporary
2025-2030 prices will be much lower than now
short term we dont know

Is that when you plan to buy? How much is 9 years worth of rent?

Villa05

Cyrus wrote:

arrogant dismissal versus massive overreaction.

Will post later but

" alot of estate agents comparing whats happening now to 2006"

Bubbles have an awful habit of popping

Ace2007

propertyseeker wrote: »

It's possibility for each outcome.
I see post of prices never reverting to 2020 levels?
To me this is blasphemy
2020 prices were already overvalued
now w Corona supply further restricted so prices go up
All is temporary
2025-2030 prices will be much lower than now
short term we dont know

Then why are you looking for houses now - why not wait?

timmyntc

cnocbui wrote: »

I think the Swiss would.

Well would Irish companies make a point of explicitly hiring Swiss german/french speakers to service that market?
I doubt it.

Hubertj

Cyrus wrote: »

strange looking job on this place, on the one hand parts are well done, on the other the landscaping would suggest corners have been cut, as would the rear of the garage.... needs to be better for a million quid in shankill imo.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-hedges-2-aubrey-park-shankill-dublin-d18-af10/4507895

I like the interior but 2 things put me off - size of the front windows and the colour of the exterior.

cnocbui

Villa05 wrote: »

Will post later but

" alot of estate agents comparing whats happening now to 2006"

Bubbles have an awful habit of popping

Well I sincerely hope it pops in NZ, but I don't hold out much hope.

propertyseeker

Ace2007 wrote: »

Then why are you looking for houses now - why not wait?

If we cant locate ok deal we will revise in two years

yagan

timmyntc wrote: »

Irelands high cost of living (and housing) is the one big deterrent to MNCs and people in general - it's quite difficult to hire at scale from EU into Ireland - the word is out and people have negative connotations about how expensive it is here (rightfully so IMO).

If English speaking staff can work in an English speaking office, but remotely - then I can see many MNCs allowing employees to remote work outside the country for a lower wage - which would still have a better purchasing power in many EU countries.

From employers POV - you still have an employee doing the work, but you save on salary costs & office space. And you can still work tightly together online in the same or similar timezones - so its not comparable to Indian outsourcing in that regard. Keep the productive staff, just pay them less if they are domiciled abroad.

There seems to be notion that all our multinationals are just googles and Facebooks. Those two companies have only been around a short time whereas biomed and pharma exports have meant we got through this pandemic with the smallest economic contraction in the EU.

Those jobs aren't going anywhere, and in fact China's first pharma plant outside the homeland is soon to open outside Dundalk.

Marius34

propertyseeker wrote: »

It's possibility for each outcome.
I see post of prices never reverting to 2020 levels?

Yes it's possible all outcomes, but in long term prices typically do not revert back. You would need to look for exceptions, rather than a typical case.

2020 prices were already overvalued

This is subjective. Price may be not affordable for most, but it's subjective to say it was overvalued.

2025-2030 prices will be much lower than now[/B]
short term we dont know

It's possible it can be lower, it's possible it can be double the 2020 prices. But both cases are unlikely. Whereas something in between is likely.

propertyseeker wrote: »

It's possibility for each outcome.

To me this is blasphemy

2025-2030 prices will be much lower than now

So nobody can know this, but you know what's to happen.

Iris11111

Reading for a while and finding it very helpful.
AIP with PTSB, Sale agreed on a property now. My question - what is the easiest way to pay the booking deposit for the agent to start the ball rolling.