Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

yagan

Marius34 wrote: »

"One of the main causes of the Great Recession that followed the financial crisis in the mid-2000s was that the housing market crashed. This was due to the law of supply and demand.

If that were true then our bubble should have popped by at least 06 when banks started rolling over developer debt.

Our bubble didn't pop until the western markets supply of credit went in reverse in 08.

In the aftermath one estimate I read that supply met demographic demand by 2004 but credit gets prices inflating.

Pension funds are doing the same now.

Marius34

yagan wrote: »

If that were true then our bubble should have popped by at least 06 when banks started rolling over developer debt.

Our bubble didn't pop until the western markets supply of credit went in reverse in 08.

In the aftermath one estimate I read that supply met demographic demand by 2004 but credit gets prices inflating.

Pension funds are doing the same now.

In 2007 credits still were flooding the market

yagan

Marius34 wrote: »

In 2007 credits still were flooding the market

Yes, that is what I said. The credit splurge that drove prices didn't go into reverse until 08.

What's your point?

Marius34

yagan wrote: »

Yes, that is what I said. The credit splurge that drove prices didn't go into reverse until 08.

What's your point?

You was the one who said that it should have popped-up in 2006. And I explained why the bubble prolonged to 2007. Nowhere it says that it should have crashed in 2006.

jill_valentine

Cyrus wrote: »

Facebook havent opened new offices in these places, they are already there, so given that fact why the hell are people here in the first place if their life would be so much better in Barcelona or Munich?

Lot of people I know are asking themselves the same question this past year. These examples came to me specifically because my former flatmate went to Munich a few months ago himself, and both my brother's Spanish flatmates went home and aren't coming back.

Irish people are a bit limited by our lack of second languages in comparison to most, but I think we're going to suffer a tremendous brain drain when we can move around again. Whether it'll be on a scale that affects property (and thus be on topic) I don't know, but I think that wider question of why somebody would actively choose Dublin over another city, all things being equal, hangs uncomfortably in the air at the moment for a lot of 25-35 year olds. Family ties to Ireland aside, there's very little you could put on paper as a reason to try to live your life in Dublin if you could live elsewhere.

yagan

Marius34 wrote: »

You was the one who said that it should have popped-up in 2006. And I explained why the bubble prolonged to 2007. Nowhere it says that it should have crashed in 2006.

In the very post I explained why I thought it should have popped in at least 06 I explained that was sustained beyond that by credit.

Are you trolling?

This is my post you initially replied to:

If that were true then our bubble should have popped by at least 06 when banks started rolling over developer debt.

Our bubble didn't pop until the western markets supply of credit went in reverse in 08.

Where in that did I neglect to mention that credit was a factor?

Marius34

yagan wrote: »

In the very post I explained why I thought it should have popped in at least 06 I explained that was sustained beyond that by credit.

Are you trolling?

No, I'm not trolling. I may have misunderstood what you try to argue.

yagan

Marius34 wrote: »

No, I'm not trolling. I may have misunderstood what you try to argue.

Ok, cool.

You had me baffled for a minute as I had stated credit as being the reason the bubble continued inflating after 06.

propertyseeker

jill_valentine wrote: »

Lot of people I know are asking themselves the same question this past year. These examples came to me specifically because my former flatmate went to Munich a few months ago himself, and both my brother's Spanish flatmates went home and aren't coming back.

Irish people are a bit limited by our lack of second languages in comparison to most, but I think we're going to suffer a tremendous brain drain when we can move around again. Whether it'll be on a scale that affects property (and thus be on topic) I don't know, but I think that wider question of why somebody would actively choose Dublin over another city, all things being equal, hangs uncomfortably in the air at the moment for a lot of 25-35 year olds. Family ties to Ireland aside, there's very little you could put on paper as a reason to try to live your life in Dublin if you could live elsewhere.

Dublin in big trouble
We know many Europeans who have moved and will move

Also talented Irish will leave

FromADistance

propertyseeker wrote: »

Dublin in big trouble
We know many Europeans who have moved and will move

Also talented Irish will leave

But yet you're asking on another thread for property recommendations to buy in D15 & surrounding towns.... hilarious.

Anyhow, what's it to you if people leave?

PropQueries

jill_valentine wrote: »

Lot of people I know are asking themselves the same question this past year. These examples came to me specifically because my former flatmate went to Munich a few months ago himself, and both my brother's Spanish flatmates went home and aren't coming back.

Irish people are a bit limited by our lack of second languages in comparison to most, but I think we're going to suffer a tremendous brain drain when we can move around again. Whether it'll be on a scale that affects property (and thus be on topic) I don't know, but I think that wider question of why somebody would actively choose Dublin over another city, all things being equal, hangs uncomfortably in the air at the moment for a lot of 25-35 year olds. Family ties to Ireland aside, there's very little you could put on paper as a reason to try to live your life in Dublin if you could live elsewhere.

Leo apparently agrees with you. It's reported in the Irish Times today under the headline "State's tax rates a major disincentive for remote workers, says Varakdar".

He then goes on to say:

"The Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment said the State needed to face up to that reality or see high-paying jobs and associated tax revenues lost overseas... He said Ireland should be attractive in “non-financial ways like more liveable cities, good education and a family-friendly environment, culture, security and the availability of quality housing.”

I think that horse has bolted. We have too much national debt to reduce income taxes, especially given the coming fall in corporation taxes. We also don't have much cash to invest in any major infrastructure projects to make our cities "liveable".

It's weird, as the the biggest thing people look at is cost of living and without including everything else, the major component of cost of living in Ireland is housing. But, that hasn't seemed to really click with him.

At least they're finally waking up to this very real and potential threat. Probably a bit too late given that the remote working in another country train has also already left the station and as I said before, we should have a much clearer insight into its impact and trajectory on all segments of the Irish property market (retail, office, residential) in the next two to three months.

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/state-s-tax-rates-a-major-disincentive-for-remote-workers-says-varakdar-1.4591155

Sierra Oscar

propertyseeker wrote: »

Dublin in big trouble
We know many Europeans who have moved and will move

Also talented Irish will leave

It's all well and good to throw out these soundbites, but what do you actually mean and where is the evidence to back it up?

We've been listening to people say for over 15 months now that house prices would collapse imminently in Dublin due to the onset of Covid and that rental prices would plummet.

The reality is that neither of these two things have transpired. Sure, we definitely saw a reprieve on rental prices. However the Government is now having to introduce emergency legislation to prevent 8% hikes in rent - it's clear to anyone actually operating in the industry that rental increases are back on the radar. The only exception really is the ultra high end of the market which, to be honest, doesn't really impact on the vast majority of people.

Meanwhile house prices are seeing significant hikes.

It's hard to see house prices or rental prices coming back down in the medium term given the ongoing supply crisis. Even with working from home, demand vastly outweighs supply. I'd argue that Covid has actually made the supply problem more pronounced. The impact on the demand side is arguably far more significant with the industry shutdown than the impact on the demand side following the introduction of WFH.

yagan

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

We've been listening to people say for over 15 months now that house prices would collapse imminently in Dublin due to the onset of Covid and that rental prices would plummet.

The matter of leases being offered with a couple of months cash back would suggest the market is altering. This isn't speculation either, incidences of such contracts were brought up in the Dail recently.

We're going to need a few quarters to figure out the new trajectory.

PommieBast

Nijmegen wrote: »

183 days will become a magic number that we all forgot after the last recession (remember cinderella flights for millionaires...)

The UK got rid of it a while ago. There was the pilot who got done for tax even though he was below the 183 days, in that case in part because he had property near Gatwick.

Sierra Oscar

yagan wrote: »

The matter of leases being offered with a couple of months cash back would suggest the market is altering. This isn't speculation either, incidences of such contracts were brought up in the Dail recently.

We're going to need a few quarters to figure out the new trajectory.

I'm not seeing it on the ground myself, although admittedly an anecdotal account.

What I am seeing in my own development:

* Queues for apartment viewings since restrictions were eased.
* Available apartments being leased fairly sharpish.
* New leases achieving the same rental prices as pre-Covid.

You're right in saying that we have to wait and see how things settle down, but in the meantime that is the reality in my locality which is what matters to people who are actually in need of a place to live.

PropQueries

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I'm not seeing it on the ground myself, although admittedly an anecdotal account.

What I am seeing in my own development:

* Queues for apartment viewings since restrictions were eased.
* Available apartments being leased fairly sharpish.
* New leases achieving the same rental prices as pre-Covid.

You're right in saying that we have to wait and see how things settle down, but in the meantime that is the reality in my locality which is what matters to people who are actually in need of a place to live.

In relation to all those points, I think they're probably explained by Michael Martin's statement a few weeks ago: "The big player in the housing market at the moment is the State".

I would be very surprised if Pascal hasn't called all the various state bodies/AHBs involved in the states buying/long-term leasing/HAP etc. schemes into his office and told them that this ridiculous waste of government money must stop.

If he hasn't, It's not good either way.

Hubertj

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It's all well and good to throw out these soundbites, but what do you actually mean and where is the evidence to back it up?

We've been listening to people say for over 15 months now that house prices would collapse imminently in Dublin due to the onset of Covid and that rental prices would plummet.

The reality is that neither of these two things have transpired. Sure, we definitely saw a reprieve on rental prices. However the Government is now having to introduce emergency legislation to prevent 8% hikes in rent - it's clear to anyone actually operating in the industry that rental increases are back on the radar. The only exception really is the ultra high end of the market which, to be honest, doesn't really impact on the vast majority of people.

Meanwhile house prices are seeing significant hikes.

It's hard to see house prices or rental prices coming back down in the medium term given the ongoing supply crisis. Even with working from home, demand vastly outweighs supply. I'd argue that Covid has actually made the supply problem more pronounced. The impact on the demand side is arguably far more significant with the industry shutdown than the impact on the demand side following the introduction of WFH.

There is a distinct difference between what is actually happening and what some people on this thread think or want to happen. Some of the conspiracy theories and misrepresentation of facts is entertaining.

FromADistance

FromADistance wrote: »

But yet you're asking on another thread for property recommendations to buy in D15 & surrounding towns.... hilarious.

Anyhow, what's it to you if people leave?

There is probably a difference between someone who wants to stay in Dublin for life, and those who are more transient and willing/preferring to live in other countries.

The concern going forward is that the job positions currently occupied by people living in/spending/paying tax in Ireland will be open to those living in other jurisdictions. Hopefully you will understand the implications of that if it were to be replicated by other MNCs who currently employ one in eight people in this country.

FromADistance

Dav010 wrote: »

There is probably a difference between someone who wants to stay in Dublin for life, and those who are more transient and willing/preferring to live in other countries.

The concern going forward is that the job positions currently occupied by people living in/spending/paying tax in Ireland will be open to those living in other jurisdictions. Hopefully you will understand the implications of that if it were to be replicated by other MNCs who currently employ one in eight people in this country.

The poster of that message has a very high opinion of himself and to be quite honest, a low opinion of the city/postcode he wants to buy in based on previous posts.

You don't need to explain anything to me thanks very much so toddle on there.

yagan

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I'm not seeing it on the ground myself, although admittedly an anecdotal account.

What I am seeing in my own development:

* Queues for apartment viewings since restrictions were eased.
* Available apartments being leased fairly sharpish.
* New leases achieving the same rental prices as pre-Covid.

You're right in saying that we have to wait and see how things settle down, but in the meantime that is the reality in my locality which is what matters to people who are actually in need of a place to live.

My anecdote is the last apartment complex I was involved with between the canals got shuttered over a year ago and hasn't recommenced construction. There's a huge drive to get anything that was over foundation level finished but all other such projects in the pipeline have been shelved.

In discussions with the financial backers before the pandemic they had earmarked the end of 2020 as peak activity, but obviously the pandemic and subsequent adaption of WFH as a business saving have probably catapulted forward their projections.

Cash backs on rent remind me of developers giving away free cars to entice buyers back in 07/08.

Sierra Oscar

yagan wrote: »

My anecdote is the last apartment complex I was involved with between the canals got shuttered over a year ago and hasn't recommenced construction. There's a huge drive to get anything that was over foundation level finished but all other such projects in the pipeline have been shelved.

Which certainly isn't going to help reduce rents in a market which is short on supply.

yagan wrote: »

Cash backs on rent remind me of developers giving away free cars to entice buyers back in 07/08.

How prevalent is this? I haven't come across it myself, none of the letting agents that I know of are offering cash back.

yagan wrote: »

The matter of leases being offered with a couple of months cash back would suggest the market is altering. This isn't speculation either, incidences of such contracts were brought up in the Dail recently.

Do you have a link to this debate? I'm genuinely curious to read up on it, I haven't been able to find the debate on KildareStreet.

Hubertj

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Which certainly isn't going to help reduce rents in a market which is short on supply.



How prevalent is this? I haven't come across it myself, none of the letting agents that I know of are offering cash back.



Do you have a link to this debate? I'm genuinely curious to read up on it, I haven't been able to find the debate on KildareStreet.

I think the couple of months free rent has been offered in some of the new developments such as quayside quarter. They want big rents but it seems the demand is not there at the “luxury” end of the market. Or people do not see a €2.8k per month apartment is that much better than an €1.8k per month apartment.

Sierra Oscar

Hubertj wrote: »

I think the couple of months free rent has been offered in some of the new developments such as quayside quarter. They want big rents but it seems the demand is not there at the “luxury” end of the market. Or people do not see a €2.8k per month apartment is that much better than an €1.8k per month apartment.

I mentioned it earlier - I would be very cautious to make an assumption on the trend of the wider market based on what is happening in the ultra high-end of the market. Developments like Quayside Quarter are a tiny microcosm of the housing market, far removed from ordinary people. Naturally they are being hit hardest by WFH arrangements, but to be honest they are even harder hit by the fact that international business travel remains shutdown.

A 2 bed apartment for €3,600 isn't representative of the wider rental market.

Now you could argue that over time availability in that sector of the market could put downward pressure on the wider market, but to be honest I wouldn't be too sure of it. The owners have their entire business model built around the fact that the apartments are exclusive and for the very well off. I doubt they are going to start cutting rents by half.

I think its more likely that, if that segment of the rental market remains subdued long-term, they'll start selling off a portion of the apartments to those willing to pay a high price for them. That'll result in a contraction of the supply to keep the rents inflated and some very wealthy owner occupiers / ultra rich keeping a pad for themselves which in turn will keep the exclusive feel of the development. We've already seen similar happen in the London market and other capital cities.

rob316

Couldn't we just build modular steel framed homes? Energy efficient homes for about 100-120k for a large 3 bed on state owned land.
We could be building homes in a few weeks.
I'd buy one.

Bit of thinking outside the box to solve a crisis is needed.

Marius34

Hubertj wrote: »

I think the couple of months free rent has been offered in some of the new developments such as quayside quarter. They want big rents but it seems the demand is not there at the “luxury” end of the market. Or people do not see a €2.8k per month apartment is that much better than an €1.8k per month apartment.

I believe maximum it has been offered was up to 6 weeks. I haven't seen any example of REIT's offering 2 months free rent, but I may have missed it.

cnocbui

rob316 wrote: »

Couldn't we just build modular steel framed homes? Energy efficient homes for about 100-120k for a large 3 bed on state owned land.
We could be building homes in a few weeks.
I'd buy one.

Bit of thinking outside the box to solve a crisis is needed.

Well rust immediately springs to mind. Got a link to these houses?

I know Toyota in Japan do factory built, fast site install houses that have a 60 year guarantee, but they are not cheap.

Amadan Dubh

PropQueries wrote: »

Leo apparently agrees with you. It's reported in the Irish Times today under the headline "State's tax rates a major disincentive for remote workers, says Varakdar".

He then goes on to say:

"The Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment said the State needed to face up to that reality or see high-paying jobs and associated tax revenues lost overseas... He said Ireland should be attractive in “non-financial ways like more liveable cities, good education and a family-friendly environment, culture, security and the availability of quality housing.”

I think that horse has bolted. We have too much national debt to reduce income taxes, especially given the coming fall in corporation taxes. We also don't have much cash to invest in any major infrastructure projects to make our cities "liveable".

It's weird, as the the biggest thing people look at is cost of living and without including everything else, the major component of cost of living in Ireland is housing. But, that hasn't seemed to really click with him.

At least they're finally waking up to this very real and potential threat. Probably a bit too late given that the remote working in another country train has also already left the station and as I said before, we should have a much clearer insight into its impact and trajectory on all segments of the Irish property market (retail, office, residential) in the next two to three months.

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/state-s-tax-rates-a-major-disincentive-for-remote-workers-says-varakdar-1.4591155

He's absolutely dead right about tax not being the sole driver in a cost of living consideration for living in Dublin. Look at the apartments being built; aparthotels, student accommodation, co-living and 1/2 bed apartments - all totally inadequate for the housing needs of the city and is an example of what happens when the market is left to provide housing solutions. These examples also perpetuate the stereotype that renting is only temporary and not for the long term. It is just not sustainable community building for one and two bedroom apartments (with their minimal size where even having friends or family members over is a stretch) as well as Co-living, student accommodation and aparthotels to be built. Dublin consequently is not a family friendly city and, despite the guff from some commentators about London or Paris being expensive and Dublin being like some sort of great European capital city, families should be able to afford to live within the canals. Just look at how destitute and deserted the city has been the past year; without tourists and office workers it is like a ghost town, because no one really lives inside the canals. The tourists won't be back en masse for another year and office workers will be, at best, around for half of the working week from September but likely absent again for the winter.

Even Grand Canal Dock, the so called Silicon Docks, is empty; walking any evening and you see this. This tech type person we hear of as being a new breed of success story in Ireland's post-Celtic Tiger economy, that zips around the docks on his escooter, wanting to rent the expensive apartments to be in the hub of the great tech capital is all a myth - there is no community in GCD.

Communities have not been encouraged to grow in Dublin City and it is increasing our decline in standard of living. Housing is the single biggest factor in that decline and policy interventions which increase supply of adequate housing, with rental or purchase prices that are significantly (essential that they are significantly) lower than they currently are is vital to avoid continued decline in the standard of living in Dublin.

Villa05

cnocbui wrote:

Well rust immediately springs to mind. Got a link to these houses?

Not far from you

Source: Irish examiner

'Clare-based chartered building surveyor Fergus Merriman outlines how he’s built a sustainable, affordable home with no energy costs for less than €150,000 and how this model could be easily replicated".

Price includes hard/soft costs less site

Cal4567

cnocbui wrote: »

Well rust immediately springs to mind. Got a link to these houses?

I know Toyota in Japan do factory built, fast site install houses that have a 60 year guarantee, but they are not cheap.

Your comments about ‘rust’ brings up an entrenched view here about modular, which I have seen and heard also from within the construction industry.

Purpose built is increasing in scale across the rest of Europe, in fact some of the UK’s largest developers ae now estimating that their outputs will increase year on year in favour of more system built properties.

The industry here still favours wet trade construction, but I can see that changing. Really good modules now coming out of Scandinavia and other European countries as well.

Building to scale will be one of the advantages in terms of combatting costs.

PropQueries

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I mentioned it earlier - I would be very cautious to make an assumption on the trend of the wider market based on what is happening in the ultra high-end of the market. Developments like Quayside Quarter are a tiny microcosm of the housing market, far removed from ordinary people. Naturally they are being hit hardest by WFH arrangements, but to be honest they are even harder hit by the fact that international business travel remains shutdown.

A 2 bed apartment for €3,600 isn't representative of the wider rental market.

Now you could argue that over time availability in that sector of the market could put downward pressure on the wider market, but to be honest I wouldn't be too sure of it. The owners have their entire business model built around the fact that the apartments are exclusive and for the very well off. I doubt they are going to start cutting rents by half.

I think its more likely that, if that segment of the rental market remains subdued long-term, they'll start selling off a portion of the apartments to those willing to pay a high price for them. That'll result in a contraction of the supply to keep the rents inflated and some very wealthy owner occupiers / ultra rich keeping a pad for themselves which in turn will keep the exclusive feel of the development. We've already seen similar happen in the London market and other capital cities.

I don't think that's very likely to happen. The more likely scenario will be that they will drop their prices significantly to offload them or attempt to sell/long-term lease them to the state.

Recent examples include Cairn Homes agreeing to sell c. 60 of the c. 600 high-end apartments they plan to build at the RTE site to DCC. There's also their possible plans to build build-to-rent apartments on the remainder of their "exclusive" Marianella apartment development.

Potential buyers with the type of money these luxury apartment developments would be seeking to sell at wouldn't be much interested in most of the 'luxury' apartment developments in Dublin IMO

Which probably explains why so many were reported as empty pre-covid.

Dublin isn't really a major city in the way most regular people think of one. We're primarily a back-office location on an island off an island off continental europe.

And with the acceleration of remote working from any country and the global tax reforms, Dublin mightn't even have the benefit of that back-office status for much longer IMO

Ozark707

Marius34 wrote: »

I believe maximum it has been offered was up to 6 weeks. I haven't seen any example of REIT's offering 2 months free rent, but I may have missed it.

I think I did see somewhere with 2 months but can't remember if it was a REIT or not.

FromADistance

FromADistance wrote: »

You don't need to explain anything to me thanks very much so toddle on there.

Why ask?

FromADistance wrote: »

Anyhow, what's it to you if people leave?

Wanderer78

Cal4567 wrote:

Your comments about ‘rust’ brings up an entrenched view here about modular, which I have seen and heard also from within the construction industry.

Timber frame all the way, it's time to move on from traditional methods, we ll have to in order to get a handle on things

yagan

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Timber frame all the way, it's time to move on from traditional methods, we ll have to in order to get a handle on things

I'd be interested to see how the timber frames thrown up between 2002 and 2008 are getting on now. There were loads of issues regarding soundproofing and dampness in the initial years. I suppose those issues can be remedied as snags are identified.

Marius34

Ozark707 wrote: »

I think I did see somewhere with 2 months but can't remember if it was a REIT or not.

If 1 case in 1000 to happen, it doesn't say anything about the market.
There are lots of misinterpretation and exaggeration going on here. So even if someone posted that landlords provide 2 months of cash back, in reality it may be something very different.

Wanderer78

yagan wrote:

I'd be interested to see how the timber frames thrown up between 2002 and 2008 are getting on now. There were loads of issues regarding soundproofing and dampness in the initial years. I suppose those issues can be remedied as snags are identified.

Ah I'm sure there's issues, but I hear great things about them from other countries, mass production of housing has to be embraced, apparently some countries are teaming up with car manufacturers, in order to set up large automated factories, think its worth investigating

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't think that's very likely to happen. The more likely scenario will be that they will drop their prices significantly to offload them or attempt to sell/long-term lease them to the state.

Recent examples include Cairn Homes agreeing to sell c. 60 of the c. 600 high-end apartments they plan to build at the RTE site to DCC. There's also their possible plans to build build-to-rent apartments on the remainder of their "exclusive" Marianella apartment development.

Potential buyers with the type of money these luxury apartment developments would be seeking to sell at wouldn't be much interested in most of the 'luxury' apartment developments in Dublin IMO

Which probably explains why so many were reported as empty pre-covid.

Dublin isn't really a major city in the way most regular people think of one. We're primarily a back-office location on an island off an island off continental europe.

And with the acceleration of remote working from any country and the global tax reforms, Dublin mightn't even have the benefit of that back-office status for much longer IMO

No there where not many, percentage wise it was low in regards to REITs. It probably only new builds had higher vacancy, as it very normal for high-end properties to take time for new occupants after construction completion.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

No there where not many, percentage wise it was low in regards to REITs. It probably only new builds had higher vacancy, as it very normal for high-end properties to take time for new occupants after construction completion.

Then explain this from the Irish Times in February 2020 (pre-covid) with the tagline: 'Luxury schemes switch to rental units as Brexit blamed for sluggish sales market':

"Two Dublin 4 apartment blocks where apartments went for sale last year are now being offered exclusively as rentals. Deerfield on Sandymount Avenue, Ballsbridge, with nine units, and 19 Pembroke Road, with a mix of six period units and six new-build units, both looked set to sell well, with booking deposits quickly paid on about half the units at 19 Pembroke Road, and a smaller number reserved at Deerfield. But sales failed to materialise in line with expectations and developer Agricula has withdrawn the properties from the market and returned booking deposits to intending buyers. As of mid-January they have been advertised for rent through agent Bergins."

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/plan-b-for-d4-boutique-apartments-as-buyers-become-renters-instead-1.4161644

Ozark707

Marius34 wrote: »

No there where not many, percentage wise it was low in regards to REITs. It probably only new builds had higher vacancy, as it very normal for high-end properties to take time for new occupants after construction completion.

It depends on how big the market is for high end. There doesn't seem to be much of a market for the +2800pm for a 2 bed yet there seems to be no shortage of places in this bracket. As you go further out the 2.2k for a 2 bed seems to be propped up by HAP payments. Maybe the government will increase the amount of places they take up through HAP so that should keep the funds happy enough (though maybe not the others living in those complexes).

FromADistance

Dav010 wrote: »

Why ask?

Toddle on pal.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

Then explain this from the Irish Times in February 2020 (pre-covid) with the tagline: 'Luxury schemes switch to rental units as Brexit blamed for sluggish sales market':

"Two Dublin 4 apartment blocks where apartments went for sale last year are now being offered exclusively as rentals. Deerfield on Sandymount Avenue, Ballsbridge, with nine units, and 19 Pembroke Road, with a mix of six period units and six new-build units, both looked set to sell well, with booking deposits quickly paid on about half the units at 19 Pembroke Road, and a smaller number reserved at Deerfield. But sales failed to materialise in line with expectations and developer Agricula has withdrawn the properties from the market and returned booking deposits to intending buyers. As of mid-January they have been advertised for rent through agent Bergins."

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/plan-b-for-d4-boutique-apartments-as-buyers-become-renters-instead-1.4161644

If I understand those properties has been completed recently of the written article. 6 months staying empty of high-end properties is nothing of surprise at all. The overall percentage still low, as most gets occupied with a time.

Graham

FromADistance wrote: »

Toddle on pal.

Mod Note

knock it off.

Do not reply to this post.

Marius34

Ozark707 wrote: »

It depends on how big the market is for high end. There doesn't seem to be much of a market for the +2800pm for a 2 bed yet there seems to be no shortage of places in this bracket. As you go further out the 2.2k for a 2 bed seems to be propped up by HAP payments. Maybe the government will increase the amount of places they take up through HAP so that should keep the funds happy enough (though maybe not the others living in those complexes).

Regardless what's the market, it's a myth that REIT's hold large percentage of properties empty, outside Covid lockdown times.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

Regarding what's the market, it's a myth that REIT's hold large percentage of properties empty, outside Covid lockdown times.

I think it depends on the price bracket they are seeking to rent out at. It appears that their apartments priced within the HAP limits appear to rent out fairly quickly. Anything outside the HAP limits appears to be taking a very long time to rent out.

To me it looks like HAP/long-term leases are the only thing keeping the rental market afloat at current rents at the moment and I don't see how Pascal can justify the current system much longer.

It would be very interesting to see what market rents would be without HAP, long-term lease agreements etc. My view would be that rents would be at least 50% below what the current asking rents are advertised for.

Underground

What was Leo talking about when he mentioned the availability of quality housing as a strength of Ireland's? He was hardly talking about Dublin was he? Is he aware of the housing situation at all? Does anyone know if he had a straight face while saying this?

Absolutely bizarre take to come out with.

yagan

Marius34 wrote: »

If I understand those properties has been completed recently of the written article. 6 months staying empty of high-end properties is nothing of surprise at all. The overall percentage still low, as most gets occupied with a time.

Aside from a census which last happened in 2016 how do we measure the number of empty units?

Hubertj

yagan wrote: »

Aside from a census which last happened in 2016 how do we measure the number of empty units?

Just make up numbers as others do

Ozark707

Hubertj wrote: »

Just make up numbers as others do

It shouldn’t be too hard you would think for the local authorities to determine the extent of empties.

Ozark707

Underground wrote: »

What was Leo talking about when he mentioned the availability of quality housing as a strength of Ireland's? He was hardly talking about Dublin was he? Is he aware of the housing situation at all? Does anyone know if he had a straight face while saying this?

Absolutely bizarre take to come out with.

Where did he say that? I think the last election highlighted how in touch Leo is with the reality of the housing situation.

Cal4567

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't think that's very likely to happen. The more likely scenario will be that they will drop their prices significantly to offload them or attempt to sell/long-term lease them to the state.

Recent examples include Cairn Homes agreeing to sell c. 60 of the c. 600 high-end apartments they plan to build at the RTE site to DCC. There's also their possible plans to build build-to-rent apartments on the remainder of their "exclusive" Marianella apartment development.

Potential buyers with the type of money these luxury apartment developments would be seeking to sell at wouldn't be much interested in most of the 'luxury' apartment developments in Dublin IMO

Which probably explains why so many were reported as empty pre-covid.

Dublin isn't really a major city in the way most regular people think of one. We're primarily a back-office location on an island off an island off continental europe.

And with the acceleration of remote working from any country and the global tax reforms, Dublin mightn't even have the benefit of that back-office status for much longer IMO

Surely that's the Part V 10% requirement, is it not?