Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

LeakyLime

janandbren wrote: »

Thoughts on story broke this morning by Killian Woods on the business post? The state itself investing in the cuckoo funds? Though I'm completely shocked by it myself, I feel this board where I have to admit is my first time posting, has replaced all my reading of social media so I appreciate all of the wide range of opinions from you all! Came straight on here to see the chat but maybe I'm too early?

Thank god for the SBP - the only paper I subscribe to at the moment. They are doing trojan work on this and long may they continue to expose the FG's disastrous housing policy. Leo and Paschal still trying to defend the role of investors up until now, as if a line was crossed just recently. Today's example is from 2019.



Also, the SBP can't be written off as some left-leaning paper with an agenda. It's tax payers money that is being gifted to private funds - this should concern left and right alike.

ongarite

It's not surprising but a direct consequence of public pressure pre COVID.
It comes down to who gets priority for new housing supply in desirable areas.

It used to be that we demanded that the public housing waiting list was reduced.
REIT bought up estates and block rented them back to the council or State's many housing charities.
Mullen Park was not different than above as Tuath was going to be the purchaser of the estate but pulled out.

Once, a private company buys the estate instead all hell breaks loose in the press.
Why do Tuath and other State controlled arms get away with no consequence when they have taken away demand from first time buyers for years too?

Thomasirl123

"the minister is understood to be proposing legislation to the effect that a further “between 30pc to 50pc” of future housing estates be available for first-time buyers only"

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/revealed-first-time-buyers-to-get-half-of-new-build-houses-40430770.html

More meddling than will somehow increase prices! The developer will prob increase prices so that ftbs can't/won't pay and then get to sell them off to a fund.

Why is there such heavy emphasis on ftb? Once you're on the ladder the housing market problems go away? It's all optics, little effort but gets a headline

tommyombomb

Anyone pi$$ed off with gov on how they are proposing legislation on cuckoo funds. New rules on house builds which will have planning rules that first time buyers need to be allowed to purchase but business as usual for apartments/high density units. No thought or care for single buyers��

Marius34

Thomasirl123 wrote: »

"the minister is understood to be proposing legislation to the effect that a further “between 30pc to 50pc” of future housing estates be available for first-time buyers only"

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/revealed-first-time-buyers-to-get-half-of-new-build-houses-40430770.html

More meddling than will somehow increase prices! The developer will prob increase prices so that ftbs can't/won't pay and then get to sell them off to a fund.

Why is there such heavy emphasis on ftb? Once you're on the ladder the housing market problems go away? It's all optics, little effort but gets a headline

If you see from previous post of this forum, there is an anger that to little share of new builds goes to FTB. As I understand from the article, the idea is to increase it.

PropQueries

ongarite wrote: »

It's not surprising but a direct consequence of public pressure pre COVID.
It comes down to who gets priority for new housing supply in desirable areas.

It used to be that we demanded that the public housing waiting list was reduced.
REIT bought up estates and block rented them back to the council or State's many housing charities.
Mullen Park was not different than above as Tuath was going to be the purchaser of the estate but pulled out.

Once, a private company buys the estate instead all hell breaks loose in the press.
Why do Tuath and other State controlled arms get away with no consequence when they have taken away demand from first time buyers for years too?

The SBP also reports today that:

"Social Democrats TD Catherine Murphy says it’s time for the state to halt these type of long-term leasing deals for social housing" and uses another recent example:

"The Heron Wood estate in Cabinteely village in south Co Dublin has been put on the market at a proposed rent of €800,000 a year. Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown Council is now negotiating to lease out all 34 apartments and houses in the estate for 25 years".

It's good that she's raising attention to this issue but the councils are also very active in buying, leasing, renting homes in the second-hand market and that has as much if not a bigger impact on the ability of many FTB's being able to purchase any home at all either new build or second-hand IMO

This appears to be a Government decision to place much of the cost of the last crash entirely on a generation that had absolutely nothing to do with it IMO. On top of the housing issue, has any of the debt associated with the last crash being paid off or are they going to throw that cost onto this generation of FTBs as well? It hasn't and it looks like that's the plan as well IMO

This is even more important with RTE reporting today that "An entire generation in their 20s and 30s are worse off than their parents. It is taken from the ESRI research which found that a decade of stagnant wages and higher housing costs have upended the inter-generational contract, with millenials the first group in a long time to be left behind by the march to prosperity."

Link to SBP article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/council-plans-to-lease-estate-for-more-than-cost-to-buy-cb9f05ad

Link to RTE article here: https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0514/1221721-ireland-politics-analysis/

SmokyMo

I refuse to believe this mess due incompetence. Core driver is corruption.

yagan

SmokyMo wrote: »

I refuse to believe this mess due incompetence. Core driver is corruption.

Greed. It's policy sculpted by landlord TDs.

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

This is even more important with RTE reporting today that "An entire generation in their 20s and 30s are worse off than their parents. It is taken from the ESRI research which found that a decade of stagnant wages and higher housing costs have upended the inter-generational contract, with millenials the first group in a long time to be left behind by the march to prosperity."

Effectively the generation that was least culpable for the mess the country found itself in suffers the most because government policy wants high priced housing.

The bill for the mess was passed on for generations to come

When we were a poor nation we exiled our children and when we became a wealthy nation, we yet again exiled our children

Failed state

LeakyLime

Quotes from the SBP article:


"Ultimate control for Ireland's stake in the fund [Urbeo] lies with Paschal Donohoe. So if you follow the roundabout Donohoe is the Minister examining rules that would crack down on activity of funds he is ultimately funding".



Also "Government policy to lease social homes (25 year leases) from institutional investors is partly fuelling the activity of institutional funds". The funds are willing to pay more for properties than they are worth on open market because their primary concern is annual yield.



Government is driving up the price of properties for everyone.

Browney7

janandbren wrote: »

Thoughts on story broke this morning by Killian Woods on the business post? The state itself investing in the cuckoo funds? Though I'm completely shocked by it myself, I feel this board where I have to admit is my first time posting, has replaced all my reading of social media so I appreciate all of the wide range of opinions from you all! Came straight on here to see the chat but maybe I'm too early?

This isn't new news. Information has been there if people were bothered to look

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=115421513

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=117138002

Great stuff from the business post calling out this economic illiteracy

AlmightyCushion

SmokyMo wrote: »

I refuse to believe this mess due incompetence. Core driver is corruption.

I don't believe it is necessarily corruption or even incompetence. I think it is simply the squeaky wheel getting the oil. The opposition and the press were screaming about the homeless and social housing so the government took care of it by throwing money at it. These long term leases are stupid from a financial perspective but it is a quick way to ease the social housing lists. Thankfully, the opposition and media are screaming about the housing issue for the rest of us who can't get social housing. Hopefully it leads to something being done about it and making rents and house prices more affordable.

PropQueries

Browney7 wrote: »

This isn't new news. Information has been there if people were bothered to look

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=115421513

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=117138002

Great stuff from the business post calling out this economic illiteracy

Fair play to the SBP on this alright. I think a big issue over the past number of years and it showed it's head over the past few weeks as well is the apparent doublespeak from our elected representatives using terms like "deliver" etc. in relation to social housing when what they were and still are planning to do is outbid many other private citizens for homes in both the new-build and second-hand home market through buying, leasing, renting.

Then, they twist the percentages with Leo in the Dail during the week appearing to take credit for our overall c. 65% - 70% home ownership rate as if that has anything at all to do either with him or with the current issue.

Also, from what I gather (not really watching it until the final proposals will be on the table), the proposed planning changes for allowing FTBs to purchase homes in new built housing estates may only apply to future planning permissions which may mean absolutely no benefit to current FTBs etc. for the foreseeable future. I'm open to correction on that one though and maybe someone can clarify if that's the apparent proposal to "help" FTBs?

Murph85

The rip offing term leases are a scandal. The state needs a housing body, that builds itself. Stop the local authorities leasing or buying from the market, or at least during rip off prices periods...

Their laziness and incompetence is a disgrace... also the housing crisis is going to get far worse, it has too... planning and endless court appeals, will have to be tackled immediately of they are in any way serious about reform, and the only reason they are now begrudgingly doing it or might do it, is due to the gun to the head...

Zenify

I've never been to a protest before. I've never been motivated enough, but I'm ready to take to the streets as soon as we are allowed!

Hopefully we can get a movement going because we all know whatever measures they come up with next week will be insufficient.

PropQueries

CorkRed93 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Orla_Hegarty/status/1393863368872714240


is this.... props?

No, but she's posted some good examples . One is the Cluain Beag, Clonard, Co. Wexford development with 2-beds at €175k and 3 beds at €205k. So, it looks like the proposed "affordable" housing bill putting a max price of €225k on new built homes in Co. Tipperary wasn't off the mark. It also shows that the "affordable" home prices for Dublin at c. €450k are basically a subsidy to whoever owns the site and has very little to do with the cost of build (excl. land) IMO

According the the property listing of one of her examples, these A-rated homes will feature:

- 10 year homebond guarantee
- Zoned natural gas fired central heating
- High performance, double glazed PVC windows and patio doors
- High quality fitted kitchens
- Stylish contemporary bathrooms and shower rooms
- Tiling to bathrooms
- Wired for telephone and broadband
- Photovoltic panels
- Fully painted internally
- Gardens ready for seeding and cultivation
- Landscaped open space

Link to development on Daft.ie here: https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/cluain-beag-clonard-co-wexford/2569199

Amadan Dubh

janandbren wrote: »

Thoughts on story broke this morning by Killian Woods on the business post? The state itself investing in the cuckoo funds? Though I'm completely shocked by it myself, I feel this board where I have to admit is my first time posting, has replaced all my reading of social media so I appreciate all of the wide range of opinions from you all! Came straight on here to see the chat but maybe I'm too early?

Quite simply, another indication that the housing market is a bubble and the worry is once again that the tax payers and mortgage holders are going to get hurt; tax payers have contributed to it as we are the ones who contribute to the exchequer this cash which has been funnelled into creating the bubble and mortgage holders have been forced to take out 30/35 year, 80/90% mortgages to make sure prices stayed high.

Prices hitting 80% of their Celtic Tiger highs should tell us all we need to know. But due to mortgage borrowing limits and salaries being ruled out as a reason for the huge rise in house prices, something else has been pumping them up - the State itself! Absolute insanity and there is no way to unwind this mess in an orderly manner. However, one thing is clear, it doesn't look good.

Edit: I think it would be too embarrassing for the State to turn around and admit it was wrong and it would also be aware of the strong covenants in its 25 year leases which would result in it being sued if it tried to unwind these ridiculous measures. This is why there is no way to wind down the policy in an orderly manner.

Bass Reeves

janandbren wrote: »

Thoughts on story broke this morning by Killian Woods on the business post? The state itself investing in the cuckoo funds? Though I'm completely shocked by it myself, I feel this board where I have to admit is my first time posting, has replaced all my reading of social media so I appreciate all of the wide range of opinions from you all! Came straight on here to see the chat but maybe I'm too early?

Is that the NTMA if it is its investment is completely independent of Government.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

No, but she's posted some good examples . One is the Cluain Beag, Clonard, Co. Wexford development with 2-beds at €175k and 3 beds at €205k. So, it looks like the proposed "affordable" housing bill putting a max price of €225k on new built homes in Co. Tipperary wasn't off the mark. It also shows that the "affordable" home prices for Dublin at c. €450k are basically a subsidy to whoever owns the site and has very little to do with the cost of build (excl. land) IMO

According the the property listing of one of her examples, these A-rated homes will feature:

- 10 year homebond guarantee
- Zoned natural gas fired central heating
- High performance, double glazed PVC windows and patio doors
- High quality fitted kitchens
- Stylish contemporary bathrooms and shower rooms
- Tiling to bathrooms
- Wired for telephone and broadband
- Photovoltic panels
- Fully painted internally
- Gardens ready for seeding and cultivation
- Landscaped open space

Link to development on Daft.ie here: https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/cluain-beag-clonard-co-wexford/2569199

Land is more desirable in Dublin hence its more expensive why is that a surprise ?

Great reporting by the SBP once again.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

Land is more desirable in Dublin hence its more expensive why is that a surprise ?

Would make sense if there was indeed a shortage of land to build on in either Dublin City or County. I think anyone commuting from the suburbs (pre-covid) would disagree IMO

Zenify

Cyrus wrote: »

Land is more desirable in Dublin hence its more expensive why is that a surprise ?

The argument from many vested interests is that it is impossible to build houses any cheaper in Dublim. That is why at lot of their suggestions is to put more money into the demand side. However, If we reduce the amount of demand eg remove the funds the price of land will drop and so will the cost of property.

Cyrus

Zenify wrote: »

The argument from many vested interests is that it is impossible to build houses any cheaper in Dublim. That is why at lot of their suggestions is to put more money into the demand side. However, If we reduce the amount of demand eg remove the funds the price of land will drop and so will the cost of property.

Why were houses in Dublin more expensive prior to funds ?

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Would make sense if there was indeed a shortage of land to build on in either Dublin City or County. I think anyone commuting from the suburbs (pre-covid) would disagree IMO

Shortage is debatable but there is a finite supply and a greater demand for it wouldn't you agree ?

Or should a 3 bed semi d in ballsbridge sell for 275k?

PropQueries

Zenify wrote: »

The argument from many vested interests is that it is impossible to build houses any cheaper in Dublim. That is why at lot of their suggestions is to put more money into the demand side. However, If we reduce the amount of demand eg remove the funds the price of land will drop and so will the cost of property.

It's also amazing how they "find" land to build on in the City Centre when they need the cash.

For example, RTE was able to sell a part of their Donnybrook site for €100Million to Cairn Homes a few years ago and Dublin Bus is currently examining how to develop its prime property sites.

It's hardly a coincidence that these prime sites come into play when e.g. RTE has revenue problems and CIE has a c. €1 Billion pension deficit.

There's real solutions but it appears they're only found only when it directly benefits the wages/pensions of public sector bodies IMO

Link to CIE development plans here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/dublin-bus-to-examine-developing-its-prime-property-sites-1.4500089

Villa05

Cyrus wrote:

Land is more desirable in Dublin hence its more expensive why is that a surprise ?

Why would the state as the largest owner of land in Dublin and elsewhere be entering long term leases at the most expensive rate ever seen in this country ?

This is why housing unaffordability has been taken to new levels.
Land is only an issue because the system made it an issue. It can be easily resolved

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

It's also amazing how they "find" land to build on in the City Centre when they need the cash.

For example, RTE was able to sell a part of their Donnybrook site for €100Million to Cairn Homes a few years ago and Dublin Bus is currently examining on how developing its prime property sites.

It's hardly a coincidence that these prime sites come into play when e.g. RTE has revenue problems and CIE has a c. €1 Billion pension deficit.

There's real solutions but it appears they're only found only when it directly benefits the wages/pensions of public sector bodies IMO

Link to CIE development plans here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/dublin-bus-to-examine-developing-its-prime-property-sites-1.4500089

But why did cairn pay 100m for it ? I thought there was no shortage if that's the case why pay 100m for a site .

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

Why would the state as the largest owner of land in Dublin and elsewhere be entering long term leases at the most expensive rate ever seen in this country ?

This is why housing unaffordability has been taken to new levels.
Land is only an issue because the system made it an issue. It can be easily resolved

Is unaffordability at new levels ?

What country is there where land sells for the same price regardless of location?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

Shortage is debatable but there is a finite supply and a greater demand for it wouldn't you agree ?

Or should a 3 bed semi d in ballsbridge sell for 275k?

Yes. Of course it should IMO. We're an extremely low population density island off an island off europe. I don't see how any standard 3-bed anywhere in Ireland costs any more than c. €150k IMO

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Yes. Of course it should IMO. We're an extremely low population density island off an island off europe. I don't see how any standard 3-bed anywhere in Ireland costs any more than c. €150k IMO

I remember now why I stopped replying to your posts thanks for reminding me.