Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

So I'm in the Dublin market at the moment and my experience is that people are seriously overbidding on properties. Like ~20% above asking in less than 48 hours.

Anybody else seeing this?

Wanderer78

PommieBast wrote: »

It is not a failure. It is a roaring success of bailing out those who paid too much for their property in the 2000's. They government just won't admit the latter and affordable housing are incompatible, and they made their choice of who is the real priority.

great point, but to be honest, i somewhat disagree, they truly do believe what theyve been doing will actually work, and the disturbing thing is, its not just the politicians themselves, but also their advisors, its disturbing to see such a large group of well educated and experienced people unable to accept this, theyre causing their own falling

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

That’s exactly what I’m asking!! his view on it!!!

Apologies, got the wrong end of the stick, my bad.

I suspect he didn't expand on it because he's well aware of how financial markets work - i.e in an environment in which large capital balances are subject to negative interest rates, finding alternative sources of investment for capital projects currently earning in excess of 5% will not be a problem.

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

So I'm in the Dublin market at the moment and my experience is that people are seriously overbidding on properties. Like ~20% above asking in less than 48 hours.

Anybody else seeing this?

This is a more appropriate thread with better answers: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058047890

Amadan Dubh

Wanderer78 wrote: »

great point, but to be honest, i somewhat disagree, they truly do believe what theyve been doing will actually work, and the disturbing thing is, its not just the politicians themselves, but also their advisors, its disturbing to see such a large group of well educated and experienced people unable to accept this, theyre causing their own falling

It's because they benefitted from it, this was an intentional policy decision to get to this scenario where we find ourselves. It isn't that they can't see the problem they just don't agree it is as bad as is made out. They got people back working after the crash and helped reinflate the bubble to get 00s buyers out of neg equity, that was their plan and they achieved it. However, they succeeded by 2015/2016 but didn't seem to have a plan from then on as they were surprised the recovery was so quick and easy. Now they're fumbling around, scarred from the negative equity, high unemployment environment from when they took power and are struggling to adapt the necessary extreme and rapid changes to their policies in order to solve this new crisis. It looks like the iron price will be paid at the next election as a result.

Villa05

Amadan Dubh wrote:

Nothing to see here, Bank of Ireland dumping €350m non-performing loans off their books into the shadows. Central Bank says banks are robust and well-capitalised. The loans disappear off into the market where the Central Bank does not have a lot of oversight. I note it says PIMCO may have bought the bonds/notes which reference the performance of these loans and the Central Bank probably regulates the PIMCO fund(s) which have bought the bonds but won't have visibility on these funds' portfolios.

Can anyone point me to this report that states the proportion of properties owned by investment funds/Reits, would be interested to know if bad loans sold by banks are included

Amadan Dubh

Villa05 wrote: »

Can anyone point me to this report that states the proportion of properties owned by investment funds/Reits, would be interested to know if bad loans sold by banks are included

With these loans, they are not actually owned directly by a fund. They are owned by an SPV. The fund only invests in bonds which reference the performance of the loans. You won't find any report which can outline the extent to which funds (incl. Reits) directly and indirectly own the properties as I don't think it's possible to collate this data.

Villa05

PommieBast wrote:

It is not a failure. It is a roaring success of bailing out those who paid too much for their property in the 2000's. They government just won't admit the latter and affordable housing are incompatible, and they made their choice of who is the real priority.

Bailing out the banks/industry required new entrants to the housing market to be sacrificed.
Calculated decision on the basis that younger transient voters are less likely to vote over home owning voters
There may be a realisation now following marriage and abortion referendums that younger voters are much more likely to vote on issues that affect them plus the growing frustration of home owning parents of future entrants to the market
The shared ownership scheme is there answer (2 birds with the one stone). They believe if these young voters have skin in the game they'll migrate to supporting an inflationary policy on housing so it's a race against time to get these voters to walk into the trap.
You can smell the air of desperation in bringing in the policy. They claim that they have put in controls to prevent inflation yet implementing the policy when supply is close to record lows

I don't think it's going to work as they'll be mostly outbid by reits in high demand areas

Will be very interesting to see how it plays out. Personally I think it will lead to more overpriced housing in the wrong areas, just like the last bubble

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

What I meant was - if tax breaks are stopped would the institutional investors leave as some claim? If they did leave what are alternative sources of finance for construction.

I know it was a point made on the late debate linked earlier, but what you need for housing is seed capital, the esri suggested doubling from 2 to 4 billion
Suppose that extra money was made available to builders with planning at very low interest rates to kick start supply.
I believe there are 9k construction workers still on pup

Jmc25

Villa05 wrote: »

The shared ownership scheme is there answer (2 birds with the one stone). They believe if these young voters have skin in the game they'll migrate to supporting an inflationary policy on housing so it's a race against time to get these voters to walk into the trap.

Very true. That line of thinking starts from the point of protecting current prices and working from there.

Essentially the idea is that if we push prices to the level where developers are "incentivised" to build (ie can build at close to zero risk and always make a profit no matter what), then more houses will be built. The affordability problem can then be solved by offering grants of some kind - shared equity, HTB, whatever - to first time buyers

In the ideal scenario within this line of thinking, this leads to loads of houses being built as developers seek out easy profits, young people now with skin in the game, having massively overpaid for an asset which they don't want to depreciate, and current homeowners unaffected as the value of their property is maintained or increased.

If this had have worked out as described above, I think most people, while probably not being delighted about the whole thing, would buy an overpriced house, subsidized by the state, and just move on with their lives.

But it hasn't worked, and a significant amount of people would now like to try some different policies and Sinn Fein are articulating different policies and that's why they're surging in the polls. Whether those policies will work, nobody knows until they're tried, but I think a lot of people feel it can't be much worse than what's happening now.

Mgit

Mgit wrote: »

I bought a 3bed semi in dundalk in 2004 for 185k which crashed to 105k at bottom, at the peak a 3bed in estate sold for 317k slowly over 10 years prices recovered bit by bit, for last 3 years prices for 3bed houses in same estate were selling for max 175k. There seems to be a big change in last months though, houses going up for sale are going sale agreed in a few days and 2 bed went on 175k and sold in a couple of days so there seems to be heat in the market now. All of a sudden 3 beds are selling for about 200k.

Will be interesting to see if prices flat line again at that, I agree that it's a two tier market in dundalk between New and second hand 2 or 3 bed estate houses

I think we have "bottleneck" effect at the moment when many people could not buy houses due Covid and now they came on market.More likely we will have property prices down again as this happened just before Covid.
If we look at the statistic the property prices were falling just before Covid
So how the prices rising up if many people been unemployed and some incomes went down by half ?
I dont know how prices for new property are calculated in Ireland but we have price per square mtr in Lithuania
The builders saying that new built property prices are rising but in reality the apartments getting smaller when price stay the same.What is the less square mtrs and the same price equal bigger price per square mtr

TheSheriff

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

I think we have "bottleneck" effect at the moment when many people could not buy houses due Covid and now they came on market.More likely we will have property prices down again as this happened just before Covid.
If we look at the statistic the property prices were falling just before Covid
So how the prices rising up if many people been unemployed and some incomes went down by half ?
I dont know how prices for new property are calculated in Ireland but we have price per square mtr in Lithuania
The builders saying that new built property prices are rising but in reality the apartments getting smaller when price stay the same.What is the less square mtrs and the same price equal bigger price per square mtr

Were they?

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

Can anyone point me to this report that states the proportion of properties owned by investment funds/Reits, would be interested to know if bad loans sold by banks are included

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2021/non-householdsector/

Loans are not included as they are not property transactions and even when a loan is in default it is unlikely that the financial institution will take possession of the property due to how difficult it is to repossess

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

Were they?

I keep eye on property prices in Ireland every day since 2004 and have Perfect Memory.
Before Covid property prices in 2019 in Dublin was falling.
Economy of Ireland had more other problems in 2018/2019 but we speak about property prices here.
Hope google search will refresh your memory

TheSheriff

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

I keep eye on property prices in Ireland every day since 2004 and have Perfect Memory.
Before Covid property prices in 2019 in Dublin was falling.
Economy of Ireland had more other problems in 2018/2019 but we speak about property prices here.
Hope google search will refresh your memory

I'd trust the data rather than your memory to be honest.

Prices were pretty flat, but definitely not "falling"--> link here

Marius34

Jmc25 wrote: »

Very true. That line of thinking starts from the point of protecting current prices and working from there.

Essentially the idea is that if we push prices to the level where developers are "incentivised" to build (ie can build at close to zero risk and always make a profit no matter what), then more houses will be built. The affordability problem can then be solved by offering grants of some kind - shared equity, HTB, whatever - to first time buyers

In the ideal scenario within this line of thinking, this leads to loads of houses being built as developers seek out easy profits, young people now with skin in the game, having massively overpaid for an asset which they don't want to depreciate, and current homeowners unaffected as the value of their property is maintained or increased.

If this had have worked out as described above, I think most people, while probably not being delighted about the whole thing, would buy an overpriced house, subsidized by the state, and just move on with their lives.

But it hasn't worked, and a significant amount of people would now like to try some different policies and Sinn Fein are articulating different policies and that's why they're surging in the polls. Whether those policies will work, nobody knows until they're tried, but I think a lot of people feel it can't be much worse than what's happening now.

and this is a big mistake, that we take things for granted, there is always a way to make it worst.

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

I'd trust the data rather than your memory to be honest.

Prices were pretty flat, but definitely not "falling"--> link here

Property prices fell almost 1% in Dublin in 2019

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/property-prices-fell-almost-1-in-dublin-in-2019-1.4172611

The first signs of recession
And now we have property prices rising ?
After economy were dead for 2 years ?

am_zarathustra

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

Property prices fell almost 1% in Dublin in 2019

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/property-prices-fell-almost-1-in-dublin-in-2019-1.4172611

The first signs of recession
And now we have property prices rising ?
After economy were dead for 2 years ?

People in the middle classes, especially upper middle classes have more cash because there was nothing else to spend it on. Their parents had more cash for the same reason. Most people I know are renovating or buying or putting patios down etc. More money (cash savings) higher prices, more people with a deposit.

hometruths

More from David McWilliams on housing in today's IT:

He sums up the problem with our housing market pretty well:

The net result of this wealth effect is that Irish people are conflicted about house prices based on whether we are owners or not. Before you own, you want prices to fall. As soon as you buy, you want prices to rise.

Hence governments pursue policies that push prices higher because homeowners represent higher numbers, who are more likely to vote:

Successive governments have aided and abetted this. In fact, there has not been an intervention in the Irish housing market designed to lower the price of housing. Every intervention has had the effect of driving up house prices.

But this cannot last for ever, no matter how much you might like to talk of supply and demand:

The latest polling data reveal the split between renters and mortgage holders in terms of voting intention. In the past five months, every month support for the Government among renters has fallen, from 38 per cent in January to 21 per cent in May. This is staggering. At the same time, support for the Coalition among mortgage holders has firmed, from 43 per cent in January to 46 per cent in May.

The writing is on the wall. Sooner or later the government will change tack and favour lower prices. It's inevitable.

am_zarathustra

am_zarathustra wrote: »

People in the middle classes, especially upper middle classes have more cash because there was nothing else to spend it on. Their parents had more cash for the same reason. Most people I know are renovating or buying or putting patios down etc. More money (cash savings) higher prices, more people with a deposit.

The only middle class which had incomes and was taking mortgages was nurses from Asia and India.
The other middle class was getting 350 PUP against them 1000 home weekly
Some IT as they call middle class from multinationals was enjoy work in Dublin from parents home in Mayo
The situation now tell me that government and builders are trying push consuming any price forward
The government no need unemployment on building sites and problems in a banks again
Government need people out of PUP and VAT collected
For that reason the only things we see in media is communist propaganda Country Moving Economy on Sky High Buy property Now !
I am very well kno what is lobby and how builders buy media trying sell as much is possible.Please Forget about Independent Media because wages there are paid by builders and lobby !
That is all about "property prices " rising from my side .

Hubertj

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Property prices fell almost 1% in Dublin in 2019

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/property-prices-fell-almost-1-in-dublin-in-2019-1.4172611

The first signs of recession
And now we have property prices rising ?
After economy were dead for 2 years ?

1% reduction over 12 months covering multiple transactions sounds fairly stable in my opinion. You can argue prices are stable at too high a level but the objective should be stability, not ridiculous fluctuations.

Amadan Dubh

TheSheriff wrote: »

Were they?

They were on the decline pre-covid in Dublin anyway, particularly south Dublin. Covid has been a dead cat bounce to the market.

Wanderer78

schmittel wrote: »

More from David McWilliams on housing in today's IT:

He sums up the problem with our housing market pretty well:



Hence governments pursue policies that push prices higher because homeowners represent higher numbers, who are more likely to vote:



But this cannot last for ever, no matter how much you might like to talk of supply and demand:



The writing is on the wall. Sooner or later the government will change tack and favour lower prices. It's inevitable.

wont happen with a ffg lead government, theyre committed to their falling now

Hubertj

Hubertj wrote: »

1% reduction over 12 months covering multiple transactions sounds fairly stable in my opinion. You can argue prices are stable at too high a level but the objective should be stability, not ridiculous fluctuations.

My point is the recession started in 2019
People could not afford buy property in Dublin that why prices started falling
Because people could not afford buy property in Dublin they started buy property around (same as in 2007 ) that why prices started rising countrywide
The situation on property market stabilized just because we have bottleneck effect after Covid and we will back to 2019 situation soon
The prices are rising because suppliers and builders has loans which they did not pay during Covid and they have pay now
For example I bought shop and couple lorries but because I did not sell anything I loosing money and have bring prices up to rich my profit plan
More,more,more
But sadly this has nothing to do with reality which we had in 2019 already !
The problem is that you can not sell 100 houses 1 million each
To 80 buyers with 1 million in pocket
And 20 buyers with 500K in pocket
And Central bank does not let banks to give 500K more mortgage to those who has only 500K
So the only thing we have step Back to 2019 and bring price to same level until more people will afford pay price
We are in Buble Right Now
But government no need this buble and those who sell houses try make government borrow and make you and me pay the debt
This not gona work this time because your and my incomes are too low to pay for it and if we will we will never buy house and government will have pay social welfares to the builders .

Hubertj

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

My point is the recession started in 2019
People could not afford buy property in Dublin that why prices started falling
Because people could not afford buy property in Dublin they started buy property around (same as in 2007 ) that why prices started rising countrywide
The situation on property market stabilized just because we have bottleneck effect after Covid and we will back to 2019 situation soon
The prices are rising because suppliers and builders has loans which they did not pay during Covid and they have pay now
For example I bought shop and couple lorries but because I did not sell anything I loosing money and have bring prices up to rich my profit plan
More,more,more
But sadly this has nothing to do with reality which we had in 2019 already !
The problem is that you can not sell 100 houses 1 million each
To 80 buyers with 1 million in pocket
And 20 buyers with 500K in pocket
And Central bank does not let banks to give 500K more mortgage to those who has only 500K
So the only thing we have step Back to 2019 and bring price to same level until more people will afford pay price
We are in Buble Right Now
But government no need this buble and those who sell houses try make government borrow and make you and me pay the debt
This not gona work this time because your and my incomes are too low to pay for it and if we will we will never buy house and government will have pay social welfares to the builders .

Sorry but I have no idea what point you are attempting to make. Was there a recession in 2019? I am saying that a functioning market should not see significant fluctuations in price. Significant increases or decreases are not a good thing, we can argue about the causes. Variables such as Demand, supply, availability of credit, regulation (too much or too little) should be better balanced.

Hubertj

Hubertj wrote: »

Sorry but I have no idea what point you are attempting to make. Was there a recession in 2019? I am saying that a functioning market should not see significant fluctuations in price. Significant increases or decreases are not a good thing, we can argue about the causes. Variables such as Demand, supply, availability of credit, regulation (too much or too little) should be better balanced.

The balance will never be reached because people looking for profit
The smart try get money of stupid
That is the main rule and engine of the market
You have only 2 choices or take side of smart or take side of stupid
Choice is yours

Bubbaclaus

Neutral guy?

cnocbui

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

They were on the decline pre-covid in Dublin anyway, particularly south Dublin. Covid has been a dead cat bounce to the market.

That is not really borne out by data: https://assets.gov.ie/38239/e91b58540d8546c1bf069b8ef73e0b4e.pdf

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/chawke-family-considers-next-steps-as-186m-scheme-rejected-1.4597024


Charlie Chawke and his family have not yet decided whether to proceed with efforts to build a contentious €186 million apartment scheme in south Dublin after An Bord Pleanála turned down permission for the development.

Cant understand what the point of it ? The first they cry that builders has to build more apartments now they cry that is not great

hometruths

cnocbui wrote: »

That is not really borne out by data: https://assets.gov.ie/38239/e91b58540d8546c1bf069b8ef73e0b4e.pdf

Whilst it is hardly a crash, a small decline is borne out by the data (from your own source):



I'd agree with Hubertj that prices were stabilising, which is desirable. The indicators suggest demand was levelling off.

Covid seems to have disrupted this mightily.

Hubertj

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/yankee-cottage-upper-curragh-ardmore-waterford/4509599

The setting of this gaff is amazing but some of the decor, the small kitchen and lack of photos makes me wonder what the rest of it looks like…

cnocbui

schmittel wrote: »

Whilst it is hardly a crash, a small decline is borne out by the data (from your own source):

I'd agree with Hubertj that prices were stabilising, which is desirable. The indicators suggest demand was levelling off.

Covid seems to have disrupted this mightily.

Depends on which bit you choose to snip, I suppose.

cnocbui

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/yankee-cottage-upper-curragh-ardmore-waterford/4509599

The setting of this gaff is amazing but some of the decor, the small kitchen and lack of photos makes me wonder what the rest of it looks like…

I'll take three.

What is this fixation with decor and such trivia? Don't like it, change it - you can't do that with the setting.

schmittel

schmittel wrote: »

Whilst it is hardly a crash, a small decline is borne out by the data (from your own source):



I'd agree with Hubertj that prices were stabilising, which is desirable. The indicators suggest demand was levelling off.

Covid seems to have disrupted this mightily.

I think the Covid simply stopped the crash
We have some movements on property market because people could not buy property but this gona change next year January.
As I said before I think today property market simply alive because is the bottleneck effect.

hometruths

cnocbui wrote: »

Depends on which bit you choose to snip, I suppose.

Absolutely, of course it depends.

You snipped the month on month price change I whereas I snipped the year on year price change. Others can decide which is more likely to be representative of a trend in prices.

It also obviously depends when the data you snip was posted. You were disputing the following post:

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

They were on the decline pre-covid in Dublin anyway, particularly south Dublin. Covid has been a dead cat bounce to the market.

And as such it have been better to quote the latest data available pre Covid, i.e Dec 2019, which the IT reported as:

The latest official figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) show prices in Dublin, which has seen the largest increase in residential construction, actually dropped 1.5 per cent in the 12 months to October. Prices were down 7.1 per cent in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, which is traditionally seen as a bellwether for the market.

That compares to a 1.3 per cent fall in Dublin in the year to September and an almost 7 per cent fall in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown in the same period, an indication that the fall in prices has sharpened.

Reading that it sounds to me like Amadan Dubh was spot on, but yes, as you say, it depends on which bit you choose to snip, I suppose.

Marius34

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

They were on the decline pre-covid in Dublin anyway, particularly south Dublin. Covid has been a dead cat bounce to the market.

They were not. There where some price decrease in Dublin in 2019, my guess it was due to uncertainty around the Brexit, but it was short lived, and got stabilized before Covid.

Balluba

London house prices suffered the biggest monthly fall in a decade as the pandemic mini boom there slows to a halt. The average UK house prices fell by £5,000 month-on-month in April. Perhaps Dublin will follow suit ?

TheSheriff

So now we are saying the fabled property crash was ABOUT to happen in 2019, buts it been stalled because of Covid?

Prices were relatively flat in Dublin in 2019, as someone who was actively bidding on properties at the time.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Absolutely, of course it depends.

You snipped the month on month price change I whereas I snipped the year on year price change. Others can decide which is more likely to be representative of a trend in prices.

It also obviously depends when the data you snip was posted. You were disputing the following post:



And as such it have been better to quote the latest data available pre Covid, i.e Dec 2019, which the IT reported as:



Reading that it sounds to me like Amadan Dubh was spot on, but yes, as you say, it depends on which bit you choose to snip, I suppose.

Why is DLR considered a “bell weather”? I would have thought areas with prices closer to average and/or higher volumes of units would be a better indicator? Would higher prices areas not be subject to greater fluctuations due to lower volumes/higher prices variables?

CRI0ST0IR

Me and our partner finally signed for our first house on the 1st of June 2020, whilst the house won't be built for a while, we decided to go and check the market again as we do every so often, the house we purchased are now being valued for €25,000 more than we signed ours for in over a month or so

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Why is DLR considered a “bell weather”? I would have thought areas with prices closer to average and/or higher volumes of units would be a better indicator? Would higher prices areas not be subject to greater fluctuations due to lower volumes/higher prices variables?

No idea, but apparently price moves and changes in direction show up there first. Possibly it’s a more price sensitive area, and patterns easier to spot for the reasons you mention.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The balance will never be reached because people looking for profit
The smart try get money of stupid
That is the main rule and engine of the market
You have only 2 choices or take side of smart or take side of stupid
Choice is yours

Nobody ever lost money underestimating how stupid people can be.

Ozark707

Balluba wrote: »

London house prices suffered the biggest monthly fall in a decade as the pandemic mini boom there slows to a halt. The average UK house prices fell by £5,000 month-on-month in April. Perhaps Dublin will follow suit ?

Source?

PommieBast

Wanderer78 wrote: »

great point, but to be honest, i somewhat disagree, they truly do believe what theyve been doing will actually work, and the disturbing thing is, its not just the politicians themselves, but also their advisors, its disturbing to see such a large group of well educated and experienced people unable to accept this, theyre causing their own falling

Whether they truely believe it or not amounts to whether they are deluded or dishonest. Personally I've stopped trying to make the distinction.

Cyrus

Amazing location but struggling to see who pays 2m for this.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/derrybeag-35a-coliemore-road-dalkey-co-dublin-a96-xp71/4508395

Balluba

Ozark707 wrote: »

Source?

The UK house price index for April 2021

mcsean2163

Cyrus wrote: »

Amazing location but struggling to see who pays 2m for this.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/derrybeag-35a-coliemore-road-dalkey-co-dublin-a96-xp71/4508395

That has to be peak stupidity....

mcsean2163

https://mobile.twitter.com/cosasiulacha/status/1406224594252582914

If this is true...

Zenify

mcsean2163 wrote: »

That has to be peak stupidity....

Honestly, I don't see that as a bad price... If you put 500k into it it would be worth over 3m.

That property to me is far better value than a 4 bed semi detached houses selling for 1m in a house estate. Like many are in South Dublin.

Cyrus

Zenify wrote: »

Honestly, I don't see that as a bad price... If you put 500k into it it would be worth over 3m.

That property to me is far better value than a 4 bed semi detached houses selling for 1m in a house estate. Like many are in South Dublin.

I'm not sure it would be as easy as that it's not a big site and you won't be able to go up either, I don't think the site lends itself to a much bigger house and if it did 500k wouldn't touch the sides. Also as much as I love coliemore Road I'm not sure I'd want to be quite that close to the sea!

Anyway could well be wrong I'll keep an eye on it.