Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120468839#Comment_120468839

You're getting very good at taking what I say and running with it ;)

No I'm not saying that. I'm merely saying that higher wages don't happen in a vacuum.

SwimClub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120469060#Comment_120469060

I asked you for the figures on the pension benefits versus what was paid in pension deductions that you had very precise claims on?

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120469093#Comment_120469093

Its the nature of these pensions its defined benefit which is very rare now in the private sector as I said the pension levy went some way to cover some of the costs but that has been eradicated over the years. You only have to ask why the IMF made the government impose such a levy if public servants were paying the full cost?. New recruits do cover more of the cost of their pensions but the actual actuarial total costs of funding these pensions is not fully covered by what is paid in and the amount given in each pension goes up with each one of these pay rises to both existing and future public sector pensioners.

SwimClub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120469150#Comment_120469150

If the pension levy is up to 20% of someone's salary and the public private premium is 20% that alone would explain it.

Do other countries have the same levy, the UK, Scandinavian countries?

As for the IMF study there are a tonne of things within a country that might be different, including the above, the paper you linked is not about estimating the public private premium (it just reports them 'as per IMF calculations'). It reports that the premia are cyclical and it shows that for Ireland are more heavily weighted toward unskilled workers in the public sector being paid more, possibly because in the private sector comparable unskilled workers get over 20% of their income paid in cash, tips etc. and it isn't accurately reported.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120469193#Comment_120469193

Will you come on and stop spinning. We have a country renowned for being highly educated record numbers going to third level and of course the high tech, pharma and high paying jobs its the main reason why our immigration numbers inverted back in 2014/15 when foreigners were seeing these jobs and wanted to get in on the act and you think we have more unskilled workers than all other countries. Come on nice try but come on. Every country has some element of paid in cash and tips, etc I mean that would be mainly the hospitality sector and countries like Spain, Portugal ye know countries that actually get a decent summer would be getting paid in cash and tips etc a lot more than in Ireland.. I didn't check on the nature of the other countries pensions with regards to how its paid. Also the pension levy has never been anywhere near 20% of a public servants salary. So your argument fails right there

combat14

trouble in REIT property paradise.?!

Major Ires Reit shareholder demands company be taken private .. after years of poor performance as a listed company.

https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/major-ires-reit-shareholder-demands-company-be-taken-private-42429492.html

SwimClub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120469252#Comment_120469252

My argument is that you can't state that the public sector are 20% better paid than the private sector without a tonne of data to back that comparison up, and you need to make all sorts of adjustments for things like pension levies, unreported income etc.

Posting a non peer reviewed report that has an estimate of a public-private premium for Ireland that just says 'as calculated by the IMF' isn't that.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120469293#Comment_120469293

Have them added to my watch list.

They are below ipo price and purchased alot of their property during the recovery period. 20% internal ownership with only 90 employees. Gearing ratio 43%

Beigepaint

A lot of out of date info in this thread with the grandads out in force.

Public pensions were gutted in 2013.

If we are concerned about wasting money on Irish people having a decent quality of life we should start with raising the pension age to 70.

Better yet let’s discuss property instead.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120469399#Comment_120469399

Will you give over the majority of those working in the private sector cant afford to put anything by for a pension when compared to the public sector not to mention if they do its at the whim of any government to raid when times get tough which happened before and the IMF are after putting the figures together showing the premium and the CSO data backs it up when you look at the average wage across the 2 sectors. I didn't make the figures up if you want to drill into it and come back with a study on the black economy in all other counties and how is skews our private sector wages then do so but I would hazard a guess there is a degree of this in all countries. I gave you a comparison done from 2 independent body the IMF and the CSO and instead of accepting that this is the way it is people will come with all kinds of spin to deflect.

SwimClub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120469554#Comment_120469554

You don't have to look at other countries, you are the one citing IMF reports that compare across countries.

My point is simple and you can just compare within Ireland, if the difference is driven by unskilled workers in both (as per your IMF report), and unskilled workers in the private sector get 20% of their pay unreported in cash, tips etc. or they get bonuses that don't factor in the salary figures, that would explain it.

Show me someone working in IT in the public sector that is getting paid 20% more than someone doing the same job in the private sector (including bonus, share options and any tax free patent schemes etc.) and I'll believe you.

BoxcarWilliam99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120469418#Comment_120469418

What platform are you using . Degiro most likely

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120469754#Comment_120469754

We have more skilled workers in this country as I said we are renowned for our highly educated work force one of the many reasons why a lot MNCs and a lot of foreign workers have come to this country. The figures of corpo tax show the MNCs who have relocated here and set up and the numbers of migration inwards show the workers coming in to take up these jobs.

The countries in the comparison have roughly the same % of unskilled workers and they would also get the same unreported pay in cash and tips unless you can prove otherwise?

Also every other country like the Scandinavian countries and the UK would have IT workers in both sectors yet there is not a 20% pay differential when the average is looked at.

We can only see the data that is present in both the IMF report and the CSO report (2 independent bodies with zero skin in the game) so what does it show.

It shows 20% differential between the 2 sectors in Ireland

It shows Ireland as having the highest differential in all countries.

It has no stat on black market activity. - This is you guessing and believing Ireland is somehow an outlier with regards to money taken in under the table without paying tax. Show me the proof of this vs the other countries outlined in the IMF report.

It has no stat on skilled vs unskilled yet again you are guessing and then forget that the same differential is probably the same in other countries as well. Once again can you show me proof of this?

What I can point to with regards to the skilled vs unskilled is the many multinational companies that have set up here and the fact that our tax system takes in a very high amount of income tax annually and those on the lower end pay little or nothing towards income tax which would skew the numbers that have a skilled job so we have more skilled than unskilled. I can point to our record levels of graduates from third level over the last 2 decades as well.

So prove that Ireland is an outlier with regards to black market activity compared to other countries named in the IMF report and prove that we are awash with unskilled labour in the private sector compared to the other countries outlined in the IMF report. Otherwise your guessing.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120468961#Comment_120468961

Can you drop the public sector pay and pensions ranting - permanently - please. This is far from the first time you've gone down that rabbit hole, and it isn't relevant to the thread to begin with.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120469808#Comment_120469808

Degiro

revolut for currency, might be worthwhile to get the 7euro pm premium plan

J_1980

Anecdotally, housing market crazy again after some lull around late last year.

open days with a dozen parties with already existing offer 10% above ask. This is South Dublin. 700-1.1m range. Grim for any wannabe homeowners or anyone who sold to upgrade.

kippy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120458408#Comment_120458408

In fairness,

With the amount of support they have gained over the past five years, I'd suggest you are wrong.

A lot of the support SF seem to have picked up are younger generations who are generally well educated but cannot see a way to own the own home or have become disillusioned with government policy for the last number of decades.

In relation to housing, supply is the only answer at every level. Build more houses on places where they are in demand.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120470176#Comment_120470176

OK.. perhaps that's true...lets say SFs core vote is young people that can't see any other way to owning their own home than voting for SF

I'd suggest their education wasn't up to much if they think SF will solve the housing crisis but I'll eat humble pie if I'm wrong.

I'd say it would be more likely they'd make an even bigger balls of things than the current pack of sleeveens.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120470200#Comment_120470200

Unfortunately they dont see a way forward with the current political parties in place and you cant blame them they are now the least bad option for a voter or at least they can see the current lot have failed them. SF will get a lot of protest votes

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120470268#Comment_120470268

They are not the least bad option.

They are a different option.

But realistically, SF will tax anyone on mid and upper incomes more heavily than they are being taxed now.

If you are looking to buy a house, you would need to be in those 2 groups.

Therefore, SF arent helping you buy a house.

SF will support the low and no earners, they will not make it easier for people on average or above incomes to buy houses.

ingo1984

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120470268#Comment_120470268

100%. It's not that people believe that SF will do any better than the current crop, but it's the fact that people are so fed up with the current crop, they'll vote SF out of spite.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120470176#Comment_120470176

Young professionals voting SF will be sorely dissapointed.

SF will not help these people. They are not the people SF represent.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120470287#Comment_120470287

Be careful what you wish for.

SF are likley to cause us to lose MNC jobs, if they increase taxes on higher earners and the businesses themselves.

At the moment, young people have fantastic career opportunities in Ireland. An amazing amount of great, well paid jobs for a small country, half the size of london.

If SF drive those MNCs out, the good jobs go with them and we will see ecomonic migration and a brain drain again from the country.

Not to mention lower living standards for all.

kippy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120470325#Comment_120470325

Im not agreeing or disagreeing with the merits of voting SF however it's easy to see why after decades of power and apparantly the decadence of all of the MNC money/tax income from similar party governments, we are worse off in housing accessibility and health than we have ever been.

What do they say - the definition of crazy is doing the same thing over and over again (voting in the same parties) and expecting different results.

The reason younger people are going with SF is fairly straightforward, the current government have had a number of years to sort the issues out and simply haven't.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120470382#Comment_120470382

Yes, the govt have been a victim of their own success in a way.

Fantastic economic growth and job creation for years has generated a population boom that they couldnt keep up with.

Changes in planning laws etc are required, but SF arent suddenly going to magic up 50000 homes per year and we could lose jobs under their leadership that we have taken a long time to create.

The current govt could have done better on the housing front, for sure.

But they have done a lot of good things with regards rhe economy and wealth generation in the country.

We have amazing corporate tax take and so many well paid highly skilled career opps for young people.

The fear is that SF will weaken the economy and job propsects for young people AND not improve the housing situation.

We are not currently living with the worst option.

realitykeeper

How can we fix it so that young people will be able to buy a house? Simple. Just increase property taxes for houses that were build prior to 2023 and exempt houses that get built from this point forward. Also, exempt first time buyers of pre 2023 houses from the property tax for at least 20 years, (provided they did not make the purchase before 2023).

If the tax on pre 2023 houses was high enough, it would have these effects:

1) It would create a real economic demand for new builds (over existing housing stock). Anyone who can afford a new house will buy one and sell their existing house which will be costing them too much to keep. This will make building new houses far more economically viable as they will fetch a higher price.

2) This increase in sales of existing houses will put serious downward pressure on the price of pre 2023 houses., making them more affordable.

3) It would correct the mistake the governments made in enriching and protecting property owners by re-inflating property prices which were trying to correct themselves in 2009. Re-inflating property prices has cost us all 200 billion euro in borrowed money since the crash of 2008. Natural justice dictates that 200 billion should be repaid by the people who benefitted from it and not by young people who were school children back in 2008. And by raising 200 billion (by taxing pre 2023 properties), the government could bring the national debt back to where it was in 2008, before they did their bank bailouts and market manipulations.

kippy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120470433#Comment_120470433

The fear for the 'new' voters of SF is that things will continue to deteriorate on a housing front. Ever increasing amounts of their wages going into rentals or not being able to move out from their parents houses or indeed ending up in the street. The 'strong economy' is not good if you cannot afford a roof over your head.

These are the things that people in their twenties and thirties are concerned about no matter what their income.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120470469#Comment_120470469

Would that not mean Institutional investors/LAs would be getting an even better deal than they already are, by buying new homes which are exempt from LPTs?

kippy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120470469#Comment_120470469

What kind of numbers are you talking about here?

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120470514#Comment_120470514

Maybe but it will increase the supply which seems to be an ongoing issue. Also, the big institutions would have stiff competion because a lot of mature property owners (not first time buyers) would be buying the new builds to extricate themselves from the pre 2023 property taxes on their existing properties. I absolutely agree tax exemptions for institutional investors should never have been given and need to stop (I mean the properties they bought before 2023).