Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120475312#Comment_120475312

You didn't even read my reply, I see.

I said that you had said property prices had fallen 60% by 2009, which you absolutely did say - and by then they had not fallen that.

You also said that they weren't going to fallen 20% further after 2009; when they very much did

Not one thing you wrote actually ties in with reality. It is a fantasy inside your mind, just like your bonkers tax suggestions that you somehow think wouldn't be Government interference in the market.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473653#Comment_120473653

The insanity began in the years preceeding 2008 and continued afterwards, all facilitated by accomodative monetary policy and fiscal irresponsibility.

The consequences, are just beginning: A housing crisis. An cost of living crisis. And despite the rosy forecasts, this is as good as it gets.

All downhill from here.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120475211#Comment_120475211

Whatever about the general sentiment being true or otherwise, all those figures you’ve quoted are so wrong it’s hard to know where to start. Jump on the CSO and look at the property price index from 2007 to 2012.

ingo1984

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120475320#Comment_120475320

To be fair, he is right on sentiment. The government has done nothing to make houses affordable, but policy has been aimed at enabling people to purchase unaffordable houses and therefore inflating prices. Look at all the policies, first time buyer relief, LA loan, rebuilding Ireland home loan, shared equity scheme, put pressure on central bank to increase loan limit to 4 times salary.

Guildenstern

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473177#Comment_120473177

I'd say a similar level, at a percentage to market rent, that the existing AHB and now LDA schemes are. A continuation of supporting a new tenure for the squeezed middle who may want to aspire to home ownership, but in the absence of government being able, or unwilling, to build to a much greater scale, this is what they get.

For some, assuming they earn enough, they will still be able to save for that deposit but for others, the cost rental option will become their permanent housing 'solution'.

Government are trying to promote this tenure as a long term option, but it ain't cheap. Social housing and its differential rent levels are looking very attractive these days.

Not sure if the wider population comprehend yet what the government are doing re cost rental.

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120475903#Comment_120475903

The government has done nothing to make houses affordable, but policy has been aimed at enabling people to purchase unaffordable houses and therefore inflating prices.

The whole issue increasing affordability means that current property owners need to take a serious haircut. Politically unpalatable and something the banks have no interest in supporting.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476279#Comment_120476279

The other side to this is that house building in large parts of the country is barely viable at current prices so the government need to push up prices to ensure building continues

Granted the incentives just push up land values in Dublin which is a waste of taxpayer money.

If the government somehow could crash house prices by 25% and then 5,000 units got built next year they’d be destroyed for that too. There’s no easy way out of this for them.

In my opinion the government absolutely wants to push up prices at the minute (but offset that increase through subsidy to try maintain affordability). But it’s for the ‘right’ reasons (I.E. we don’t have enough houses and the best way to get more supply of something is to increase demand), it’s not some conspiracy theory to enhance wealth of property owners at detriment of young people.

Rock, hard place.

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476401#Comment_120476401

This is why its difficult to compute the claims that property is overvalued by X%, when it couldn't even be built at the prices people deem reasonable.

ingo1984

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476401#Comment_120476401

Large swathes of state owned land that currently lying empty, they could employ developers to build on this land reducing overall cost price.

They could reduce the 13.5% VAT on building materials to further reduce building costs. A suggestion lobbied by multiple TDs yet was **** down by FF.

We have TDs directly objecting against property developments which will directly impact pricing of development projects they've a direct vested interest in. Conflict much.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476424#Comment_120476424

Yep, crux of issue at the moment seems to be building is just too expensive. But I assume we have little to no impact on materials as they are priced globally. And then on labour, Ireland is expensive, wages are high. Not sure how cheap we can expect construction workers to be.

Government subsidies seem the only option to me at present. People can’t seem to grasp that we have two perceived issues -

1. Prices are too high
2. We aren’t building enough homes for the population growth.

In the short term, fixing one of those is naturally going to make the other worse - getting builders to ramp up their output and then sell at really cheap prices is fantasy. So pick your poison!

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476439#Comment_120476439

This is just a government subsidy disguised in another way to use tax payer money to help making building otherwise unviable developments profitable for the developer.

Its no different to the HTB except the subsidy goes straight to the developer at source rather than via the first time buyer. The benefit of the HTB and other schemes is that they are more targeted to certain cohorts of the market.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476401#Comment_120476401

Where exactly is it unviable to build in Ireland? How come we had that incident in Rural Mayo last week, where new builds originally sold to ftb were pulled and sold to a fund whose business was to sell them on again perhaps to the state or another fund.

If I recall correctly the original price was 220k, the fund buyer has to pay 10% tax on that plus profit in selling on

So I'm calling BS on the narrative that it's unviable to build on large swathes of Ireland.

Thargor

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2023/04/14/house-prices-increased-by-5-in-february-but-rate-of-growth-slowed/

Prices up by 5% in February. No sign of this collapse yet anyway.

Eims5769

Prices in Dublin falling for the last 5 months (only 2 months if you look at national)

I can't post links so...CSO.... Residential Property Prices....February 2023

You need to go into 'Data' to see the month movements FYI

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476553#Comment_120476553

I’d imagine any house over a reasonable size must be in rural areas in particular?

I’ve never built a house but just hearing what people have had to revalue at for insurance purposes - 2500 odd per sqm according to the SCSI or something?

Cant imagine it’s too sensible to build a 200sqm house in Longford at anywhere near those rates.

FernandoTorres

Dreadful headline and most likely deliberate. Prices were not up 5% in February, they were up 5% in the 12 months to February. Prices from the beginning of last year are not that relevant anymore. The key takeaway from this is that actual selling prices have now fallen for two months in a row and annual growth is now at a 22 month low. Just shows people can all take very different things from the same statistic.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476730#Comment_120476730

exactly

"Homes are now being sold for just 1pc over asking price compared with 6pc this time last year.

A Daft.ie report had similar findings of falling asking prices for properties.

MyHome.ie said Dublin house prices had fallen for four consecutive months and were now 2pc below the peak levels they hit in September last year."

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476722#Comment_120476722

Rural Ireland is over supplied in mcmansions from the previous bubble. What it needs is 2/3 bed homes for Workers that keep our traditional economy ticking over such as agriculture/tourism etc

For insurance purposes SCSI is a guide not compulsory. A tradional price gouging industry is gaining from these rates kept as high as possible (nudge, nudge, wink, wink Irish economics)

Jonnyc135

200 m2 house on your own site in rural Ireland to build now, the banks would need you and your partner to show earnings of €2000/ m2 so you would have to have enough for a 400,000 House provided you have a site already.

A couple would need to have a combined income of 100,000 along with the 4x rule.

That is roughly the cost of fully furnishing a 200 m2 house in todays terms with all the bells and whistles and driveway tarred etc.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120473722#Comment_120473722

That is not what was said

These schemes are buying up existing buildings, keeping existing tenants in situ,

This protects the haves at the expense of the have nots. New entrants pay the price who in general are our youth. There are liitle/no homes left so they are far more likely to leave

Our 4 billion a year spent on housing is pissed away buying existing supply rather than adding new. It is stupidity on an epic scale, the only way it could be justified is an expensive vote buying project

SwimClub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476922#Comment_120476922

They have no choice but to do this now. In the big picture they would be better off spending less money to 'lease supply' off rental property owners in the short term while spending most of the budget on building, but that would involve incentives for the owners that are selling up to keep them in, and they have now made the regulatory and rent controlled environment such that no incentive will work for most. The have nots have asked for all of this, including the new entrants.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476957#Comment_120476957

You may have a point if we view this scheme in isolation, but every scheme has the same traits and characteristics.

The first warnings of a supply issue were from Ronan Lyons in 2013, unexpected corporation tax receipts began in 2015. The state was the largest property owner in this period, tax receipts boomed in the years since. Multiple opportunities to make significant progress on the issue.

Buying now at what appears to be the top of the cycle is suicide, all efforts need to be put into new supply with the commercial sector frozen outside the office blocks the state is funding.

Take advantage of what appears to be an incoming worldwide recession. The recession will cool demand so a supply surge would get us to equilibrium quicker than it would in the previous 10 years

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477216#Comment_120477216

You wouldn’t be concerned that a recession would also affect those trying to buy, and the developers would not provide the supply surge you are predicting?

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120475172#Comment_120475172

Enniskerry is lovely but the first house screams of overpriced, delusional asking for 850k.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477231#Comment_120477231

The state does not need to make a profit on providing homes. The state also has access to a far greater pool of finance than any developer, even in recession times.

herbalplants

The daughter of friend of mine just bought on Bidx1.com a house for 100k in Williamston, Co. GALWAY ! The house is good condition, needs a stove and oil burner. 4 bedroom house. Definitely you couldn't build one for that price.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477418#Comment_120477418

Im reminded of the Prime Time episode a few weeks ago when Paul Murphy said the State should be able to build enough houses, at a cost lower than a developer to solve the housing crisis. The developer, think he was one of the Flynns, laughed and told Murphy he was in fantasy land.

If you are waiting for the State to build tens of thousands houses, take a look at their record, think children’s hospital and schools, and also consider how private developers will ride the taxpayer, you included, in the process as it will be them that the State will pay to build those houses.

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476660#Comment_120476660

There is always time. Will probably happen for sure in the next 1 to 15 years.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477428#Comment_120477428

If they bought on auction there is likely some issues - tenants overholding possibly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477507#Comment_120477507

In a recession scenario when building slows down, the taxpayer is much less likely to get rode.

If building slows down developers will be fighting each other for state contracts

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476660#Comment_120476660

"2nd Month on month drop now Jan .5% and Feb a further drop of .4% its not a collapse but if that trajectory continues for the rest of the year we will see 5 to 6% drop.