Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477647#Comment_120477647

Month on month is far too short a scale to make any meaningful analysis. The volume of property for sale means you can get huge variability in asking prices vs sale prices. Need to wait for at least quarterly data if not 6 months+

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477647#Comment_120477647

This is just backward looking.

market in Dublin is buoyant again. Mass viewings, first offers 10% above aks, new record prices in estates.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477819#Comment_120477819

really its backward looking property prices in Dublin have dropped 5 months in a row to date so the last 5 months just gone and that is backward looking?? REALLY, there will be some that go above the on average prices are dropping. Not to mention another interest rate hike this month

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477585#Comment_120477585

In a recession, developers are often amongst the first to suffer, so don’t be surprised if quite a few fold up their tents to avoid creditors.

If the State is employing developers for large scale developments, the State will be the biggest ride in history. See the children’s hospital as an example.

SwimClub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477216#Comment_120477216

"You may have a point if we view this scheme in isolation, but every scheme has the same traits and characteristics."

No idea what you mean by that, my point is specific to the government buying rentals which was your original point.

They have no choice now due to their interference in the rental market which they have completely messed up, that is now being plugged with money that should be spent on building and providing units outside of the rental market.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477819#Comment_120477819

As I have been saying, the FF/FG governments have been doing everything in their power to inflate property prices. So, when the ECB started hiking interest rates, the government said to hell with responsibility, let`s ease borrowing restrictions by reducing deposit requirements and let the bankers have their bonuses for whatever reckless gambling they do. Mark my words, if interest rates continue to rise and if house prices look set to decline again, then you can expect the return of the 110% mortgage. It could happen before the year is out.

When the government is out of ammo and the banks collapse anyway, will they bail them out again? Well, they will try. It all depends on whether or not the EU remains intact. It could disintegrate as Ireland and the other PIGS (Portugal,Italy, Greece, Spain) demand more stimulus while Germany, the Netherlands and Finland refuse to go along with it.

theboringfox

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477943#Comment_120477943

The government did not increase borrowing limits. It was the Central Bank. There will be no return of 110% mortgages. The banks have no reason to take on that risk and the central bank would not allow it. The max has been kept at 90% loan to value. I see no reason why banks would do this. All the talk is of banks actually tightening their criteria for loans in response to any potential downturn

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477943#Comment_120477943

The Government do not set the borrowing restrictions

Return your posts to actual reality - not your reality - or stop posting on the thread. This is a mod instruction and is not to be replied to.

StevenToast

Do banks have a minimum mortgage amount they would lend?

E.g. House cost is 650,000....deposit of 550k.....would the bank give 100k mortgage??

Thank you....

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477383#Comment_120477383

That's what I thought but I don't know anymore. 850k for a three bed bungalow with terrible ber, maybe that's normal now.....🥲

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478185#Comment_120478185

They all have lower limits, it varies per bank. Underneath this limit they want you to take out a normal loan instead of a mortgage (and therefore pay much higher interest rates).

I think AIB's limit is 25k. Not sure about other banks.

100k would definitely be fine for all banks.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477943#Comment_120477943

It’s the cbi.

it’s irrelevant anyway. Cash buyer around everywhere. Some even cash buying their follow on purchase and the listing their old home.

dontmindme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476008#Comment_120476008

Cost rental is just the higher priced social housing for the fleeced middle.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478303#Comment_120478303

The lower the rate / better the deal the higher the minimum usually - there was a mover deal for KBC mortgage holders being offered by... someone, I can't find the news article now, which I failed to qualify for as the minimum was 100k for that deal.

PTSBs general minimum is 40k; the others aren't coming up easily on a search

dontmindme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478185#Comment_120478185

Yes, of course...why wouldn't they, any chance to make a profit is not to be sniffed at.

dontmindme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478305#Comment_120478305

Have you any source for this information?

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478342#Comment_120478342

-Just go to viewings.

-watch sale agreed’s and see how quickly they appear in Land registry.

-barn elms & Hampton grace park new developments all selling out at 2022+x prices etc.

-follow auctioneera, offr.io and sherryfitz bidding on log in

newmember2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478431#Comment_120478431

Where is the cash sale indicated?

Houses for sale in Ireland

- 9577 Results

14k is what's recommended?

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478312#Comment_120478312

What is the actual rate for cost rental determined by?

Cost of what?

Guildenstern

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477507#Comment_120477507

The only way that could be possibly would be to have a Build State Agency which when first mooted the LDA was to be just that. It may yet become a reality. A State has enormous buying power of materials but this would require a monumental rethink of policy, and probably still mean sub contracting to existing building contractors. The middleman developer would be cut out of that.

As various level of housing crises work there way through other jurisdictions, if they opt for such a scenario, except us to do so too.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478305#Comment_120478305

Perhaps it is irrelevant as you say, we will see if that is true as interest rates continue to increase. But will there be as many cash buyers as defaulters? Perhaps so, if Irish passports are advertized to Chinese millionaires. The Irish central bank like all central banks are supposed to be independent of governments yet they seem to be compliant. That said, if things get out of control due to rising interest rates and sticky inflation, the main central bankers like those in the ECB, and the politicians will start blaming each other.

realitykeeper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478102#Comment_120478102

Yes the banks may not want to lend that is something I agree with. But the government, I mean the central bank did losen borrowing requirements. Instead of needing a 20% deposit, you now only need 10%. So banks could lend more if they wanted to. Also, the bankers may take the view that even if they were to fail as institutions, the government would bail them out again. We don`t have a lot of mainstream banks left in this country, they could all take the view that they are systemically important. And, don`t forget the cap has been lifted on banker bonuses and how does a banker make a bonus? By making loans.

theboringfox

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478793#Comment_120478793

The 20% deposit was only for second time buyers. It remains 90% for first time buyers. Mortgages are now way dearer than 6 months ago. Ppl will struggle to borrow 3.5x and meet stress test of +2%.

The banks have just rebuilt their balance sheets and profitable. There is no incentive to take excess risk. In fact if the competition has reduced as you say it means they need to take less risk as there is enough business there.

The cap on bonuses only lifted to allow max bonus of 20k. You think senior management in banks are going to take big risks for less than 10k after tax?

The house price growth has not been credit fuelled like in last crash. You just had very cheap money due to low interest rates and strong economy. Economy remains strong but interest rates have risen and that seems in recent months based on cso data to drive a decline in house prices. That also relates to house prices agreed before rate rises so I suspect the full impact of rate rises is still to be felt.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478793#Comment_120478793

You don't learn. Do not post in this thread again.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478793#Comment_120478793

The Government no longer has a stake in BOI and is reducing its stake in/hold on the other two, AIB/PTSB, so it would be difficult to justify a salary/bonus cap on banks whilst still expecting them to compete with other employers for the skilled personal necessary. I don’t have a problem with our banks competing to hire the best people, I would have a problem with such large, important institutions being hamstrung by having to settle for lesser top people because they can’t offer a competitive remuneration package.

A functioning banking system that lends prudently is always necessary and lending today is very different to the policies that existed during the Celtic tiger years. I’m not aware of any 100% mortgages being given, and the for those that only require 10% deposit, there is still a limit on what can be borrowed so the risks associated with lending today are not the same as they were pre-2007.

The Government doesn’t need to advertise passports for there to be cash buyers, a lot are Irish people with cash on deposit, institutional investors and Local Authorities, will that group outnumber defaulter? Yes, I would think so, unless there is a dramatic increase in mortgage rates (unlikely) and/or a dramatic increase in job losses (equally unlikely). The fact that banks have been so prudent in lending over that last 10 years means that the majority of borrowers, though feeling the pinch, have fixed their rates at a manageable level. If they haven’t, they should have. It is also worth bearing in mind that interest rates today are probably what would be expected had the boom and bust not happened, we exited what was an extended period of exceptionally low interest rates which was never likely to continue indefinitely, it was a very welcome benefit to home buyers that the ECB rate remained so low for so long. So the rise in rates is an inevitable correction from an artificial low.

The insatiable pursuit for higher wages to offset inflation just means inflation will continue for longer. People want lower prices, and higher wages, the two aren’t always compatible.

Right now I don’t want the Government to waste billions on house building, the waste will be outrageous, they have no track record of being able to manage such a project. No doubt developers will lap up the money being offered and this being a small country with only a few players capable of building on that scale, they will carve up the takings. Instead they should drive efficiency and make it appealing for property owners to return derelict property to habitable condition. Vacant property tax, trying to use a stick rather than a carrot is no way to innovate. I saw a headline that said a property developer was able to dodge tax on vacant sites, instead of having to do that, make it more appealing financially to build rather than sit on the sites. That won’t play well with those that want to punish people for not building, but if the possible losses for building are less than the penalties, then there is no incentive for anyone to take the risk.

Thats just my two cents worth, might not even be worth that. But as a sideline from my main business over the past 25 years I’ve bought and done up properties and had a number of rentals, I would neither build now, nor buy rentals as the risks/costs far outweigh the benefits.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120478793#Comment_120478793

You’re talking rubbish again….European banks have had to issue convertible debt that would recapitalise the bank in the event of the bank going under. This was introduced so governments wouldn’t need to bail them out. Stick to facts and not your fairytale land.

Viscount Aggro

Ballyman road Enniskerry. 2000 units being built around this site. Check out Fassaroe SHD.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477231#Comment_120477231

Not really as I suspect Ireland will escape the worst of this one. This presents the opportunity of sourcing labour abroad if needed and provide employment for those that might be affected by a slowdown (commercial property etc).

A worldwide recession would make other countries far more competitive in comparison to Ireland so using the time period to address our major imbalance would be a wise investment. Our quick recovery from the last recession had alot to do with reasnobly priced commercial and residential property.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120480000#Comment_120480000

No, our quick recovery was due to low corporate tax which attracted large multinational corporations like google, pziser, Microsoft etc, who used Dublin as a base for their European activities. These companies transformed the Irish economy, not reasonably priced property, accounting for up to 90% of goods and services exports and bringing in foreign investment.

tesla_newbie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120477428#Comment_120477428

Hopefully the person who had the house repossessed doesn’t act belligerently, I once bought an apartment through Bidx1, goons showed up at my house a week after the auction , I got my deposit back as the same thing happened when the receiver tried to sell it before, someone unwittingly ( or perhaps not ? ) disclosed my personal details so the receivers solicitor didn’t in anyway try and argue with my pulling out, I’d personally have chosen to close out the sale but my wife would have divorced me

that was 2019 , I should add that I bought an apartment through their predecessor Allsops in 2015 and with no problems whatsoever