Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Amadan Dubh

yagan wrote: »

If I can find it I'll post it later but a while back I saw a very interesting discussion online about how in the USA bailout money was propping up a lot of retail units owned by banks and investment groups. They kept unsustainable units open in order to keep rents up in their performing assets.

They described it as financial facadism but I'm not sure how it can be unwound if the government continues to prop them up. At some stage something has to give, I've just no idea what that something is.

That's exactly it; everything is being underwritten by the Fed. The markets cannot seem to stomach even slight decreases and the risk warning "past performance is no gudie to future performance" is actually proving to be false. I am wondering whether the jokes about "stocks only go up" is actually true. A significant correction isn't being allowed to happen in assets (stocks and property), it is just being blocked. It's so bizarre and the whole thing is like a jenga block getting thinner or a house of cards.

yagan

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

That's exactly it; everything is being underwritten by the Fed. The markets cannot seem to stomach even slight decreases and the risk warning "past performance is no gudie to future performance" is actually proving to be false. I am wondering whether the jokes about "stocks only go up" is actually true. A significant correction isn't being allowed to happen in assets (stocks and property), it is just being blocked. It's so bizarre and the whole thing is like a jenga block getting thinner or a house of cards.

There just seems to be an aura of hypernormalisation about it all. In that discussion I mentioned an estimated 30% of commercial real estate owned by Fed supported banks and funds remain open at a loss.

Politically I can see why they'd want to support semblances of economic activity, but if wages remain flat while rents increase then the correction may be on the streets and not in the markets.

timmyntc

yagan wrote: »

There just seems to be an aura of hypernormalisation about it all. In that discussion I mentioned an estimated 30% of commercial real estate owned by Fed supported banks and funds remain open at a loss.

Politically I can see why they'd want to support semblances of economic activity, but if wages remain flat while rents increase then the correction may be on the streets and not in the markets.

If the ass falls out of commercial rents, surely that would make things worse for residential property?

If funds are denied earnings from one sector, they will try make up the shortfall through the only profitable sector left (residential rents)

wassie

Hibernia REITs CEO take on Govt response to housing in the Independent today.

Earlier this month the government introduced measures aimed at tackling the housing crisis. Stamp duty on the purchase of 10 or more houses has increased to 10pc, however, apartments will not be subject to the higher tax rate. The tax increase won’t make much difference to Hibernia, Mr Nowlan said.

“We own about 350 apartments, we don’t have any houses, it’s not really relevant for Hibernia."

"The big issue is we have a massive housing crisis, and the reality is we need delivery from all angles of the market,” he said.

“Ireland is a pretty small market, we don’t have enough capital in Ireland to solve this problem and the government doesn’t have access to the type of capital that is required. This is going to need to be a blended resolution to this problem and I think international capital is part of the solution, probably focusing more on apartment construction,” he added.

Can anyone enlighten me as to what is meant by 'the Govt doesn't have access to the right type of capital'?

My first take on this was that Nowlan as CEO is simply supporting his own agenda, but as he said, Hibernia don't have a lot of skin in the game so I find the comment curious.

DMcW also been pretty vocal on the idea that the state can fund a large scale housing programme if it wanted. Naomi O’Leary on Housing Europe blog last month published an article that also clearly suggests otherwise.

yagan

timmyntc wrote: »

If the ass falls out of commercial rents, surely that would make things worse for residential property?

If funds are denied earnings from one sector, they will try make up the shortfall through the only profitable sector left (residential rents)

This of course can lead to societal revolt.

I've an elderly relation who's gone from being a life long Fianna Failer to a Sinn Feiner solely on the issue of housing for younger generations. She acknowledges that she benefitted massively from investment in social housing, she bought out her own house from the council.

I'm sure this heave is happening in all markets affected by Fed backed hot money.

Amadan Dubh

wassie wrote: »

Hibernia REITs CEO take on Govt response to housing in the Independent today.

Earlier this month the government introduced measures aimed at tackling the housing crisis. Stamp duty on the purchase of 10 or more houses has increased to 10pc, however, apartments will not be subject to the higher tax rate. The tax increase won’t make much difference to Hibernia, Mr Nowlan said.

“We own about 350 apartments, we don’t have any houses, it’s not really relevant for Hibernia."

"The big issue is we have a massive housing crisis, and the reality is we need delivery from all angles of the market,” he said.

“Ireland is a pretty small market, we don’t have enough capital in Ireland to solve this problem and the government doesn’t have access to the type of capital that is required. This is going to need to be a blended resolution to this problem and I think international capital is part of the solution, probably focusing more on apartment construction,” he added.

Can anyone enlighten me as to what is meant by 'the Govt doesn't have access to the right type of capital'?

My first take on this was that Nowlan as CEO is simply supporting his own agenda, but as he said, Hibernia don't have a lot of skin in the game so I find the comment curious.

DMcW also been pretty vocal on the idea that the state can fund a large scale housing programme if it wanted. Naomi O’Leary on Housing Europe blog last month published an article that also clearly suggests otherwise.

I would have more time for the REIT representatives than the US vultures like Kennedy Wilson, Greystar, Round Hill. REITs are not really the enemy as it is not in their interest to keep properties vacant - they are publicly listed vehicles that are answerable to their shareholders and need cashflow to pay dividends each year. You and I can go and buy shares in a REIT if we wanted to. As far as I can see, the only issue with REITs is their tax treatment makes the playing field uneven with small landlords and that needs to be corrected.

With the likes of Kennedy Wilson, they make their investment through private funds (typically structured as Irefs) and, while they are answerable to their shareholders, we don't know who these shareholders are as there is little public information which can be obtained about the funds. These are the investors quite clearly happy to leave properties vacant and hoover up new builds (Round Hill for example are the crowd that took over the Maynooth estate that kicked off the media furore a few weeks ago).

yagan

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

I would have more time for the REIT representatives than the US vultures like Kennedy Wilson, Greystar, Round Hill. REITs are not really the enemy as it is not in their interest to keep properties vacant - they are publicly listed vehicles that are answerable to their shareholders and need cashflow to pay dividends each year. As far as I can see, the only issue with REITs is their tax treatment makes the playing field uneven with small landlords and that needs to be corrected.

With the likes of Kennedy Wilson, they make their investment through private funds (typically structured as Irefs) and, while they are answerable to their shareholders, we don't know who these shareholders are as there is little public information which can be obtained about the funds. These are the investors quite clearly happy to leave properties vacant and hoover up new builds (Round Hill is another one of these non-public US vultures - the crowd that took over the Maynooth estate that kicked off the media furore a few weeks ago).

Kennedy Wilson really are the intermediary, developing assets to sell to the likes of pension funds.

As more boomers retire the stain on these already underfunded pension schemes will increase as more draw down while less contribute and rental yields fail to cover the shortfall.

Once one major pension fund collapses the rush will be out of illiquid assets like property and into cash.
(edit to add, I'm merely musing hypertheticals)

rob316

Reading about this Housing for All 12bn plan, are they finally acknowledging its a supply issue? You can't make houses affordable unless their is plentiful supply, all the schemes created so far have just driven demand and prices up.

Hubertj

wassie wrote: »

Hibernia REITs CEO take on Govt response to housing in the Independent today.

Earlier this month the government introduced measures aimed at tackling the housing crisis. Stamp duty on the purchase of 10 or more houses has increased to 10pc, however, apartments will not be subject to the higher tax rate. The tax increase won’t make much difference to Hibernia, Mr Nowlan said.

“We own about 350 apartments, we don’t have any houses, it’s not really relevant for Hibernia."

"The big issue is we have a massive housing crisis, and the reality is we need delivery from all angles of the market,” he said.

“Ireland is a pretty small market, we don’t have enough capital in Ireland to solve this problem and the government doesn’t have access to the type of capital that is required. This is going to need to be a blended resolution to this problem and I think international capital is part of the solution, probably focusing more on apartment construction,” he added.

Can anyone enlighten me as to what is meant by 'the Govt doesn't have access to the right type of capital'?

My first take on this was that Nowlan as CEO is simply supporting his own agenda, but as he said, Hibernia don't have a lot of skin in the game so I find the comment curious.

DMcW also been pretty vocal on the idea that the state can fund a large scale housing programme if it wanted. Naomi O’Leary on Housing Europe blog last month published an article that also clearly suggests otherwise.

I expect it is reference to government challenges in EU Capex rules. The argument is if you spend more on housing cut backs will be required on other capital projects due to whatever limits are in place at EU level. Is there a way around this without impacting other projects?

Amadan Dubh

yagan wrote: »

Kennedy Wilson really are the intermediary, developing assets to sell to the likes of pension funds.

As more boomers retire the stain on these already underfunded pension schemes will increase as more draw down while less contribute and rental yields fail to cover the shortfall.

Once one major pension fund collapses the rush will be out of illiquid assets like property and into cash.
(edit to add, I'm merely musing hypertheticals)

Of course it's all hypothetical, speculative, opinion-based etc. but this is why we're on Boards.ie to thrash these things out. The more Boomers retiring and the more the next generations take over the management, executive, political etc. positions they occupy the more we will see a trend away from boom/bust housing markets and the commoditization of housing.

I would love to see data on the trends for home ownership in 5, 10, 15, 20 years among the various demographics as I would be curious as to whether we are trending towards the majority of the working age population being non-home owners. I won't even start on how this would affect property prices in the long term!

Timing belt

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Of course it's all hypothetical, speculative, opinion-based etc. but this is why we're on Boards.ie to thrash these things out. The more Boomers retiring and the more the next generations take over the management, executive, political etc. positions they occupy the more we will see a trend away from boom/bust housing markets and the commoditization of housing.

I would love to see data on the trends for home ownership in 5, 10, 15, 20 years among the various demographics as I would be curious as to whether we are trending towards the majority of the working age population being non-home owners. I won't even start on how this would affect property prices in the long term!

you will need to wait till the results of the next census for updated info.

Here is the data from the 2016 census
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/tr/

MacronvFrugals

Statement from the NTMA regarding the ESRI's report two weeks ago -


State can fund more more housing despite growing debt – NTMA

The Government can borrow billions more to build houses for years to come without risking the State’s finances, according to the CEO of Ireland’s debt agency.

National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) chief executive Conor O'Kelly said that fears over Ireland’s growing debt load had been “overstated” the State still had “some room” to take on more debt even after extraordinary levels of borrowing during the pandemic.

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/state-can-fund-more-more-housing-despite-growing-debt-ntma-40563576.html

Jmc25

rob316 wrote: »

Reading about this Housing for All 12bn plan, are they finally acknowledging its a supply issue? You can't make houses affordable unless their is plentiful supply, all the schemes created so far have just driven demand and prices up.

There was mention in the examiner yesterday of the plan actually targeting average prices in the 300k range in Dublin. Could be kite flying but if that actually forms part of the plan it would be the first acknowledgement by the Government that prices need to fall.

The report from the ESRI, the statement from the NTMA, Varadkar' Ars Fheis speech - the wheels seem to be in motion to finally deal with the issue by methods other than a press release.

Amadan Dubh

In the same way we are not immune with our housing market to what happens in other countries, their house prices like ours have soared the past year as well! Are we on a roller-coaster and have just completed our climb to the top of the drop? It's a bubble, undeniably but can it be deflated in an orderly manner?

https://www.ft.com/content/3082fe00-cdb7-4eb9-ab2d-2309b9848114

House prices climb to record levels in US and Europe

US existing home prices jumped 23.6% year-on-year in May to an average of $350,300

Some economists said the drop in sales volumes could be a sign that the US housing market has peaked, after activity last year hit the highest level since 2006.

“The decline in sales and rise in inventory means that the extreme upward pressure on prices should soon start to fade,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Others see further rises to come, fuelled by central bank policies. “Loose monetary conditions could push asset prices even higher, risking an eventual sharp correction,” said Adam Slater, economist at Oxford Economics. “For central banks, neither this outcome nor persistently higher inflation are attractive prospects.”

Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Fed, recently warned prices were at “historically elevated” levels and highlighted purchases of large amounts of residential property by financial investors.

The European Central Bank said in a report this week that in the fourth quarter of last year eurozone house prices were up 5.8 per cent on the previous year — the highest growth rate since mid-2007.

Rising prices and a shortage of affordable homes have sparked public anger at large commercial landlords in several European countries. Ireland imposed a 10 per cent stamp duty on anyone buying 10 or more houses over a 12-month period to stop financial investors buying large numbers of properties.

The most liked comment under the article says;

"“no strong signs of [a] credit-fuelled housing bubble in the euro area as a whole” - unbelievable. ECB seems to be living in an alternate reality. I thought it was common knowledge by now that loose monetary policies have driven asset prices through the roof. In some parts of Ireland housing prices have increased in excess of 50% in the last 1 year! A global pandemic, record number of people on unemployment benefits and yet prices increased in excess of 50%! This will not end well."

Amadan Dubh

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

In the same way we are not immune with our housing market to what happens in other countries, their house prices like ours have soared the past year as well! Are we on a roller-coaster and have just completed our climb to the top of the drop? It's a bubble, undeniably but can it be deflated in an orderly manner?

https://www.ft.com/content/3082fe00-cdb7-4eb9-ab2d-2309b9848114



The most liked comment under the article says;

"“no strong signs of [a] credit-fuelled housing bubble in the euro area as a whole” - unbelievable. ECB seems to be living in an alternate reality. I thought it was common knowledge by now that loose monetary policies have driven asset prices through the roof. In some parts of Ireland housing prices have increased in excess of 50% in the last 1 year! A global pandemic, record number of people on unemployment benefits and yet prices increased in excess of 50%! This will not end well."

I can't see how it ends well.

yagan

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

"“no strong signs of [a] credit-fuelled housing bubble in the euro area as a whole” - unbelievable.

It does seem that it is institutional investors pouring pension cash on their own bonfire. So in that respect it may be accurate to say it's not mortgages driving up prices.

Governments have allowed pension funds price workers out of home ownership so I can't see there being much sympathy for a boomer bailout when their funds implode.

Amadan Dubh

yagan wrote: »

It does seem that it is institutional investors pouring pension cash on their own bonfire. So in that respect it may be accurate to say it's not mortgages driving up prices.

Governments have allowed pension funds price workers out of home ownership so I can't see there being much sympathy for a boomer bailout when their funds implode.

*another boomer bailout after their bank shares crashed

flexcon

This is ****ing ridiculous now.

The other half just sent this to me to give them a ring. 25mins after the ad went live.

Called and they said there is Nothing really left and that the house s were already on sale 2 months.

I said - how is that? You just posted the listing just now.

She said : Facebook. I ****ing kid you not. This is a legit tale.

I am so disillusioned now.
https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/the-cedars-lackenroe-glounthaune-co-cork/3421123

Amadan Dubh

New homes being sold off the plans via Facebook? Jaysus.

How did that work; "like, comment and tag your bank to be in with a chance of owning a house like you see in these pictures. "

flexcon

Brantley Ambitious Sunburn wrote: »

any idea what the 3 bed semis are going for here?

Didn’t ask unfortunately.

rob316

rob316 wrote: »

We dont build 100% social housing developments anymore.

I think we do.I was visiting couple freshly built locations were all houses was social.

Was listen Newstalk radio on way to work today morning.The top guy from KBC (sadly forgot his name ) was saying that postpandemic recovery will be hard for government when property prices crash will happen.What will make government borrow more.The more and more top guys telling about property buble is here.

stampydmonkey

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Was listen Newstalk radio on way to work today morning.The top guy from KBC (sadly forgot his name ) was saying that postpandemic recovery will be hard for government when property prices crash will happen.What will make government borrow more.The more and more top guys telling about property buble is here.

Didnt hear it. So when did he say it would crash?

yagan

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

Was listen Newstalk radio on way to work today morning.The top guy from KBC (sadly forgot his name ) was saying that postpandemic recovery will be hard for government when property prices crash will happen.What will make government borrow more.The more and more top guys telling about property buble is here.

With KBC leaving Ireland I can see why he wouldn't pull punches.

The Irish banks are already backstopped by the taxpayer so they can still piss down our backs and tell us it's raining.

tobsey

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Was listen Newstalk radio on way to work today morning.The top guy from KBC (sadly forgot his name ) was saying that postpandemic recovery will be hard for government when property prices crash will happen.What will make government borrow more.The more and more top guys telling about property buble is here.

What time was that at?

wassie

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

New homes being sold off the plans via Facebook? Jaysus.

How did that work; "like, comment and tag your bank to be in with a chance of owning a house like you see in these pictures. "

I don't find this surprising at all. Facebook is just another marketing channel for many businesses.

It wasnt that long ago advertising real estate on the internet was completely unheard of.

Amadan Dubh

wassie wrote: »

I don't find this surprising at all. Facebook is just another marketing channel for many businesses.

It wasnt that long ago advertising real estate on the internet was completely unheard of.

I would agree if it wasn't Facebook we are talking about. The same Facebook that is associated with conspiracy theorists, Trump supporters, Cambridge Analytical, "fake news" etc. It's not some groundbreaking new tech there claiming to disrupt anything. Arguably, it is dying a death by a thousand million profile deletions. As well, the homes were advertised solely on Facebook, not even on more mainstream, property specific platforms.

Hubertj

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

Was listen Newstalk radio on way to work today morning.The top guy from KBC (sadly forgot his name ) was saying that postpandemic recovery will be hard for government when property prices crash will happen.What will make government borrow more.The more and more top guys telling about property buble is here.

Interesting you say that. I listened to Austin Hughes and he never referred to a property crash. Reference was made to sentiment regarding housing costs, government spending and concerns around the pandemic. Consumer sentiment is at a 2 year high. Perhaps you were listening to another channels or are you a liar?

stampydmonkey

stampydmonkey wrote: »

Didnt hear it. So when did he say it would crash?

He did not say when but he said If property prices crash will happen at same time with postpandemic recovery this gona be very hard.So I would say 4-6 months
The another sign from US.There been emergency meeting this week in USA were Biden was asking Janet Yellen and other officials about warning signs in US economy and buble on stock market.

Hubertj

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

He did not say when but he said If property prices crash will happen at same time with postpandemic recovery this gona be very hard.So I would say 4-6 months
The another sign from US.There been emergency meeting this week in USA were Biden was asking Janet Yellen and other officials about warning signs in US economy and buble on stock market.

Again you are lying.

Hubertj

This is a very interesting read and provides insights and comparisons with other countries. I was surprised by the data considering the discussions here

Hubertj

[Deleted User] wrote: »

He did not say when but he said If property prices crash will happen at same time with postpandemic recovery this gona be very hard.So I would say 4-6 months
The another sign from US.There been emergency meeting this week in USA were Biden was asking Janet Yellen and other officials about warning signs in US economy and buble on stock market.

Is this the meeting you are referring to or was it another meeting we don’t know about?

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/climate-agenda-biden-prepares-meet-with-top-financial-regulators-2021-06-21/

Lies don’t really support your argument when there are plenty of actual issues with the current situation.

Bass Reeves

Hubertj wrote: »

This is a very interesting read and provides insights and comparisons with other countries. I was surprised by the data considering the discussions here

I wouldn't be really. As there is a large section of posters with an attitude that housing should be so cheap.that it should be like going on a foreign holiday or as easily available as a latte.

While I was not surprised about the income v cost I taught our overall house costs would be higher. I was surprised we were substantially behind other Northern European countries.

The housing crisis is a supply issue not a price issue and this shows it. If we manage to sort supply in Urban area we will solve the issue. Too many think it a matter of someone clicking there fingers and by magic 100 k houses will appear in 2-3 years.

We have bottlenecks with planning, labour, finance and regulations it will take a while to reach 30 k+ houses/ year which is the demand at present

It mainly a Dublin based issue but other large urban area need to be kept on track as well

Madeoface

Hubertj wrote: »

This is a very interesting read and provides insights and comparisons with other countries. I was surprised by the data considering the discussions here

Thanks. It is an interesting read. Ireland showing its low income families are well below the norm in terms of 'burden' of housing cost relative to income. HAP is too generous is my take and the nominal rent in local authority houses too low.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

This is a very interesting read and provides insights and comparisons with other countries. I was surprised by the data considering the discussions here

I wouldn't be really. As there is a large section of posters with an attitude that I'm alright Jack.

The data includes all households, including all those who own their house with no mortgage, those with very low mortgage payments, as well as those receiving HAP etc paying a token amount. Add all these people up and you'll have a majority of the population.

If you look at table HC1.2.2. Housing cost burden of low- and middle income households as share of disposable income you'll notice that Ireland stands out as the only country where middle income renters have a higher housing cost burden than the lowest income renters. This is the problem.

These middle income renters are the ones who are suffering because they have to pay full market rents. They earn too much to receive housing assistance and too little to buy a house.

Nothing surprising about the data, nor the I'm alright Jack attitude.

Government to sell part of its Bank of Ireland stake on rte news today

The things getting mad interesting.

Cyrus

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

Government to sell part of its Bank of Ireland stake on rte news today

The things getting mad interesting.

why is the govt selling their stake in BOI mad interesting in the context of the property market? given that this was their intention from the very outset?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I wouldn't be really. As there is a large section of posters with an attitude that I'm alright Jack.

The data includes all households, including all those who own their house with no mortgage, those with very low mortgage payments, as well as those receiving HAP etc paying a token amount. Add all these people up and you'll have a majority of the population.

If you look at table HC1.2.2. Housing cost burden of low- and middle income households as share of disposable income you'll notice that Ireland stands out as the only country where middle income renters have a higher housing cost burden than the lowest income renters. This is the problem.

These middle income renters are the ones who are suffering because they have to pay full market rents. They earn too much to receive housing assistance and too little to buy a house.

Nothing surprising about the data, nor the I'm alright Jack attitude.

I agree with you and that is partly my point. I found the comparisons with other countries interesting as some posters have commented about how much better it is in other countries. The data doesn’t seem to support that assertion.

Marius34

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I wouldn't be really. As there is a large section of posters with an attitude that housing should be so cheap.that it should be like going on a foreign holiday or as easily available as a latte.

While I was not surprised about the income v cost I taught our overall house costs would be higher. I was surprised we were substantially behind other Northern European countries.

The housing crisis is a supply issue not a price issue and this shows it. If we manage to sort supply in Urban area we will solve the issue. Too many think it a matter of someone clicking there fingers and by magic 100 k houses will appear in 2-3 years.

We have bottlenecks with planning, labour, finance and regulations it will take a while to reach 30 k+ houses/ year which is the demand at present

It mainly a Dublin based issue but other large urban area need to be kept on track as well

I'm abit surprised here as well. In general what i see Ireland Rents to Income is higher than other Western Europe countries, whereas sale price are lower. For the Rents Ireland likely has higher subsidy for lower income rents.

MacronvFrugals

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I wouldn't be really. As there is a large section of posters with an attitude that housing should be so cheap.that it should be like going on a foreign holiday or as easily available as a latte.

While I was not surprised about the income v cost I taught our overall house costs would be higher. I was surprised we were substantially behind other Northern European countries.

The housing crisis is a supply issue not a price issue and this shows it. If we manage to sort supply in Urban area we will solve the issue. Too many think it a matter of someone clicking there fingers and by magic 100 k houses will appear in 2-3 years.

We have bottlenecks with planning, labour, finance and regulations it will take a while to reach 30 k+ houses/ year which is the demand at present

It mainly a Dublin based issue but other large urban area need to be kept on track as well

For all the GDP talk we're also worse off in living standard terms than many of those countries its worth noting


https://twitter.com/Aidan_Regan/status/1406977145226903552?s=20

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I agree with you and that is partly my point. I found the comparisons with other countries interesting as some posters have commented about how much better it is in other countries. The data doesn’t seem to support that assertion.

I guess it depends what exactly we're comparing with other countries.

Our overall housing costs burden does not seem so bad in comparison because a lot of it is shared by all of us through various means.

But we don't often see posts like "Look at Sweden, they're doing a much better job than us stinging Sven Taxpayer for social housing costs"

Most comparisons on here comparing us with other countries are about affordability of buying a house should you wish to do so as well as the impact of high rents.

To make that comparison meaningfully we'd need to only look at those renters in full time employment not in receipt of housing supports, and measure that burden.

Whilst interesting, this is not the data to make that comparison.

Browney7

schmittel wrote: »

I wouldn't be really. As there is a large section of posters with an attitude that I'm alright Jack.

The data includes all households, including all those who own their house with no mortgage, those with very low mortgage payments, as well as those receiving HAP etc paying a token amount. Add all these people up and you'll have a majority of the population.

If you look at table HC1.2.2. Housing cost burden of low- and middle income households as share of disposable income you'll notice that Ireland stands out as the only country where middle income renters have a higher housing cost burden than the lowest income renters. This is the problem.

These middle income renters are the ones who are suffering because they have to pay full market rents. They earn too much to receive housing assistance and too little to buy a house.

Nothing surprising about the data, nor the I'm alright Jack attitude.

What's also interesting is that countries with the lowest average household size have the highest cost burdens. Ireland has one of the higher %s of adults living at home. If the parents are still working or even drawing down a pension, there are more than 3 incomes coming into that house which would contribute to a low "burden" especially if the mortgage is paid off or very small. The three Nordics for example have a household size of approx 2 whereas Ireland is one of the highest at 2.6.

Whether other countries have the same model of housing provision for young professionals whereby 3 or four teachers/accountants/nurses share a house in their 20s instead of getting a city centre apartment I don't know. Again, these households would have a high income and low burden.

Whether Eurostat have gone down the HAP rabbit hole and classifying it as an income and expenditure or just offsetting it against the cost burden I don't know

hometruths

Browney7 wrote: »

What's also interesting is that countries with the lowest average household size have the highest cost burdens. Ireland has one of the higher %s of adults living at home. If the parents are still working or even drawing down a pension, there are more than 3 incomes coming into that house which would contribute to a low "burden" especially if the mortgage is paid off or very small. The three Nordics for example have a household size of approx 2 whereas Ireland is one of the highest at 2.6.

Whether other countries have the same model of housing provision for young professionals whereby 3 or four teachers/accountants/nurses share a house in their 20s instead of getting a city centre apartment I don't know. Again, these households would have a high income and low burden.

Whether Eurostat have gone down the HAP rabbit hole and classifying it as an income and expenditure or just offsetting it against the cost burden I don't know

Good points.

And the causes behind adults living at home and four professionals sharing a house are precisely because we have a high housing cost burden for these categories, but it seems the effects are being interpreted as us having a low cost burden.

Browney7

Browney7 wrote: »

Whether other countries have the same model of housing provision for young professionals whereby 3 or four teachers/accountants/nurses share a house in their 20s instead of getting a city centre apartment I don't know.

Great point, one I was going to try and make here yesterday but said to my self why bother.

I dunno where it is now, but someone was giving yards about the developers building apartments because they are not suitable for families and Irish people dont want to live like that.

Well some do, I lived in one for years.

Marius34

Browney7 wrote: »

What's also interesting is that countries with the lowest average household size have the highest cost burdens. Ireland has one of the higher %s of adults living at home. If the parents are still working or even drawing down a pension, there are more than 3 incomes coming into that house which would contribute to a low "burden" especially if the mortgage is paid off or very small. The three Nordics for example have a household size of approx 2 whereas Ireland is one of the highest at 2.6.

Whether other countries have the same model of housing provision for young professionals whereby 3 or four teachers/accountants/nurses share a house in their 20s instead of getting a city centre apartment I don't know. Again, these households would have a high income and low burden.

Whether Eurostat have gone down the HAP rabbit hole and classifying it as an income and expenditure or just offsetting it against the cost burden I don't know

It's sound like we have lack of residential property stocks if we compare with Nordics?

Browney7

Marius34 wrote: »

It's sound like we have lack of residential property stocks if we compare with Nordics?

I would assume so.

Latest stats I see on % of 25-34 year olds living with parents is approx 27% in Ireland whereas the Nordics is down near 5%.

Despite their high housing burden cost as outlined in the paper, it doesn't seem to be a hurdle to accessing housing there.

Marius34

Browney7 wrote: »

I would assume so.

Latest stats I see on % of 25-34 year olds living with parents is approx 27% in Ireland whereas the Nordics is down near 5%.

Despite their high housing burden cost as outlined in the paper, it doesn't seem to be a hurdle to accessing housing there.

I was pointing this few times before, but many argue with me that this metric is not important, but rather that Ireland has property utilization issue.
For some it's important metric only when it suits the argument.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I was pointing this few times before, but many argue with me that this metric is not important, but rather that Ireland has property utilization issue.
For some it's important metric only when it suits the argument.

This metric is not important. Ireland has a utilization issue.

Around 17% of the EU population live in an overcrowded home.

In Ireland 3.2% of people live in an overcrowded home.

Around 33% of the EU population live in an under-occupied home.

In Ireland 69.6% of people live in an under-occupied home.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/digpub/housing/images/pdf/Housing-DigitalPublication-2020_en.pdf?lang=en

Browney7

Marius34 wrote: »

I was pointing this few times before, but many argue with me that this metric is not important, but rather that Ireland has property utilization issue.
For some it's important metric only when it suits the argument.

It's likely more nuanced than what you outline in relation to Ireland.

People may choose to live at home for longer because they are able to and because the alternative isn't very palatable or attractive.

Your choice is (for Dublin), pay 1600 per month for a one bed apartment, shack up with a significant other and pay over 2 grand for a two bed or pay 800 or 900 for a room in a house share with strangers and hope they turn out to be sound or stay at home for free in mammy and daddy's spacious 4 bed semi D and save up your deposit to buy a place.

I'd agree that we need more units but also agree that utilisation of existing property in Ireland is probably inefficient also. Empty expensive rental apartments, large suburban homes with only 2 retirees that have no option in their existing communities to downsize to and so stay put.

I'd doubt that we are building enough of the right stock to better utilise existing stock.

SmokyMo

schmittel wrote: »

This metric is not important. Ireland has a utilization issue.

Around 17% of the EU population live in an overcrowded home.

In Ireland 3.2% of people live in an overcrowded home.

Around 33% of the EU population live in an under-occupied home.

In Ireland 69.6% of people live in an under-occupied home.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/digpub/housing/images/pdf/Housing-DigitalPublication-2020_en.pdf?lang=en

Does EU metric above excludes Ireland? Would need to look at distributions in those figures.