Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

growleaves

FG would give away all state assets to their associates for nothing if they thought they could get away with it.

They overpaid for the Children's Hospital. They would pay €50,000 for a milkshake if they knew the owner of the diner.

The name for that is graft btw, not 'incompetence' (the usual defence, some defence!)

Cal4567

SmokyMo wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EOBroin/status/1408334355194339329

The IT trying to get away with it with a misleading headline, knowing exactly that many readers will not look beyond the headline.

The IT are fast becoming as much a comic as the Indo has been for years.

The anti SF rhetoric has been ramped up coupled with Varadkar coming out heavy on the populist stuff. Is there a bye election on?

Marius34

Wanderer78 wrote: »

jesus christ, what utter bullsh1t, sf realises the ffg model of a fire sector lead economy will continually fail, and it will, particularly in relation to property, as this approach is ultimately about maintaining a trend of continual property and land price inflation

No objective minded person would be able to explain how this is true.

Wanderer78

Marius34 wrote: »

No objective minded person would be able to explain what that mean.

id say you d be surprised, theres a lot of well respected commentators writing about this now, you d also be surprised of the amount of young people that understand it, even far better than me

Marius34

Wanderer78 wrote: »

id say you d be surprised, theres a lot of well respected commentators writing about this now, you d also be surprised of the amount of young people that understand it, even far better than me

I'm updated abit my statement, not to confuse.
Yes, I'm aware that many bloggers/commenters could write the same.

I'm looking forward to seeing these 18-24 year olds show up in force for the next general election.

Slacktivism always translates to votes.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm looking forward to seeing these 18-24 year olds show up in force for the next general election.

Slacktivism always translates to votes.

oh they ll turn up, and so to will their parents, grandparents, uncles and aunts, this is going deep now!

yagan

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm looking forward to seeing these 18-24 year olds show up in force for the next general election.

Slacktivism always translates to votes.

The repeal ref certainly say a massive increase in voter registration in the younger cohorts that traditionally vote less.

This is certainly a more engaged younger population than during the Bertie bubble. People in their 20 and 30s can't ignore that the system is stacked against them, and the equality and repeal refs have shown that the old social settings are changeable.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

They object to planning and block development for political gain. They “care†about the “people†just as much as all other parties.

I'm comfortable with the reasons for objection, that state owned land is key to resolving the supply issue, handing it over to a sector that openly controls supply to maximize profit will not resolve the issue

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

oh they ll turn up!

Well they've failed to show up in force for every general election in memory...

Wanderer78

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm comfortable with the reasons for objection, that state owned land is key to resolving the supply issue, handing it over to a sector that openly controls supply to maximize profit will not resolve the issue

yup, speculation is killing us

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

Well they've failed to show up in force for every general election in memory...

patience, this is now traveling into people heading into their 40's, you can be damn sure they ll vote, and again, along side their older loved ones!

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm comfortable with the reasons for objection, that state owned land is key to resolving the supply issue, handing it over to a sector that openly controls supply to maximize profit will not resolve the issue

Yes for political purposes.

Villa05

Amadan Dubh wrote:

ESRI bubble warning in the property market. It's all so familiar at this stage.

That firmly blows FF argument that the advise against shared ownership was obsolete and that control measures added, they claim will tackle inflation, is in fact BS

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

patience, this is now traveling into people heading into their 40's, you can be damn sure they ll vote, and again, along side their older loved ones!

Utter waffle, as usual.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

Utter waffle, as usual.

oh the arrogance! conservatism is dying death!

tobsey

Bass Reeves wrote: »

SF do not want this to happen as it reduces there longterm potential voter base. It's a cynical play on housing. They want to create more Ballymun's, Moyross's and Knocknaheenie's so they can continue to harvest votes out of these types of getto's

This is 100% correct.

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The DBS odds have taken a very interesting shift, SF have gone from being 6/1 3 weeks ago to 7/4 today


Geoghan - 5/4
Boylan -7/4


The populist rhetoric from Leo over the last two weeks makes sense now

The only reason Boylan was 6/1 three weeks ago was she wasn't confirmed. SF could have put forward a different candidate. It was always going to be FG and SF top of the betting

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

oh the arrogance! conservatism is dying death!

People like you have been saying this for a century, at least. Any day now, lads.

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The DBS odds have taken a very interesting shift, SF have gone from being 6/1 3 weeks ago to 7/4 today


Geoghan - 5/4
Boylan -7/4


The populist rhetoric from Leo over the last two weeks makes sense now

Speaking of populist rhetoric the Sinn Fein motion in the pension and retirement age is worse than any of the bol*ox coming out of Leo. “Demographics Will loos after themselves” fills me with confidence.
It’s all about politics, not what’s best for the people.

Graham

Mod Note

enough with the snarky swipes please folks.

Feel free to take the politics debate to the appropriate forum.

Do not reply to this post.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

People like you have been saying this for a century, at least. Any day now, lads.

look around the world, and see whats happening, the political and economic ideologies of the last few decades are starting to collapse, we re experiencing this here in ireland in the slow collapse of ffg and the rise of sf, the ffg era of governance is coming to an end, so be ready for it

Graham

Mod Note

Wanderer78, threadbanned for a week.

Wanderer78

Graham wrote: »

Mod Note

Wanderer78, threadbanned for a week.

yippee!

yagan

History doesn't repeat itself but it can rhyme, and it is interesting to see how SF gaining on issues like housing that FF first rose to power on.

Fine Gael hands off free marketing coupled with Fianna Fail's bidding against FTBers is counteractive governance and this is actually even alienating secure home owners.

If the byelection goes SFs way I won't be surprised if a few FFers jump ship.

Amadan Dubh

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

ESRI bubble warning in the property market. It's all so familiar at this stage.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-in-ireland-could-be-reaching-tipping-point-1.4602628

Except it's not so much driven by consumer credit this time. It's harder to know how this one plays out.

yagan

Deleted User wrote: »

Except it's not so much driven by consumer credit this time. It's harder to know how this one plays out.

Both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are terrified of imposing limits on international funds buying up the housing stock as globalisation has delivered jobs and even reversed emigration.

But the fact that people now consider emigrating because of housing nullifies their decades old economic model.

So until there's a change in government we're going to be waiting on a hot money implosion before we see a retreat and even sell off by the international pension funds.

Amadan Dubh

Deleted User wrote: »

Except it's not so much driven by consumer credit this time. It's harder to know how this one plays out.

It's clear that there is something at play in the market which feels artifical and which is begging for a significant correction to rents and prices.

I would like to say that the taxpayer is insulated this time but unfortunately that is unlikely to be the case, for example, with the State via councils taking on 20/25 year leases at 85/90% market rents while being fully responsible for maintaining the properties the taxpayer (income taxpayer or property tax payer) will need to fund these leases. Although, what might happen in that scenario is that the State will just sub-let the properties to private renters but I'd imagine they will still have to take a hit on the rent they have committed to.

As you say it's hard to see how it will play out. Steady and gradual declines to house prices but significant and quicker rent drops, with significantly increased supply over the next 10 years would be the best outcome. The level of QE being flooded into the world's financial system is astronomical though and it seems like the whole economic system would crash if this was halted so I don't know if it is possible to avoid anything other than a hard crash as the economy is on life support, demanding significant QE.

yagan

yagan wrote: »

Both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are terrified of imposing limits on international funds buying up the housing stock as globalisation has delivered jobs and even reversed emigration.

But the fact that people now consider emigrating because of housing nullifies their decades old economic model.

So until there's a change in government we're going to be waiting on a hot money implosion before we see a retreat and even sell off by the international pension funds.

I'm not going to engage in politics type conversation after the above warning.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Except it's not so much driven by consumer credit this time. It's harder to know how this one plays out.

It's driven by social housing

bubblypop

bubblypop wrote: »

It's driven by social housing

Not institutional investors too?

yagan

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm not going to engage in politics type conversation after the above warning.

I only rejoined the conversation now so have missed whatever that warning is about.

But I'm sure we're on safe ground to discuss vectors like international funds being let bid on the national housing stock. They can only do as they're let.

NZ in 2018 intervened to restrict buying to legal residents so government housing policy is very much tangible to the discussion. But for the reasons I've stated above I don't see this government seriously challenging offshore buyers anytime soon.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not institutional investors too?

Oh yes, but they are also renting to people on HAP

Timing belt

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

It's clear that there is something at play in the market which feels artifical and which is begging for a significant correction to rents and prices.

I would like to say that the taxpayer is insulated this time but unfortunately that is unlikely to be the case, for example, with the State via councils taking on 20/25 year leases at 85/90% market rents while being fully responsible for maintaining the properties the taxpayer (income taxpayer or property tax payer) will need to fund these leases. Although, what might happen in that scenario is that the State will just sub-let the properties to private renters but I'd imagine they will still have to take a hit on the rent they have committed to.

As you say it's hard to see how it will play out. Steady and gradual declines to house prices but significant and quicker rent drops, with significantly increased supply over the next 10 years would be the best outcome. The level of QE being flooded into the world's financial system is astronomical though and it seems like the whole economic system would crash if this was halted so I don't know if it is possible to avoid anything other than a hard crash as the economy is on life support, demanding significant QE.

The taxpayer will not be insulated this time around. Instead of the banks lending to public to buy houses they are lending to Funds to buy houses... If property goes bang like before the banks are still exposed. .. In the UK Retail banks are not allowed to lend to Funds under the bank ringfencing legislation. No such legislation exists in Ireland so the banks are free to lend. The big question is which banks are undertaking this lending? I am sure that the likes of BOI and AIB will have exposure but the question is how much and has the regulator his finger on the pulse this time.

Add on top of this the fact that a large portion of the worlds securitization is undertaken via SPV's in Ireland. It would indicate that if something does go bang it will be felt heavily in this market.


It's very hard to know how it will play out... We do know that investors are taking more risks in order to get a return. The last time the trigger was a lack of liquidity in the market this time there is to much liquidity that it is causing issues for the banks.

The big questions will be where do rates go? Personally I don't see them going up for quite a while until there is strong economic growth.

A rate rise or tapering QE has historically been the tool that has been used to combat inflation. But will central banks do something new that would enable them to keep rates low that would allow them to undertake more QE and at the same time manage inflation (e.g. pull excess liquidity out of the system).

cnocbui

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm comfortable with the reasons for objection, that state owned land is key to resolving the supply issue, handing it over to a sector that openly controls supply to maximize profit will not resolve the issue

There is a super simple solution to this, break away from what to me is a weird model - the mass developer build - and sell off individual blocks to individuals - one per customer.

Actually don't seel them, reserve them in such a way so that the buyer pays a deposit, then if they build a house within 4 years, the land sale goes through and they get full title. Put a 30% stamp duty caveat on it if it's on-sold within 5 years

In Australia, housing used to be an individual sport. You would buy a 1/4 acre block and engage a builder to build you a house. I think the turning of housing into a commoditized team sport for flash harrys and money men out for multi million deals and a nice rakeoff for themselves is part of the price driver.

Every house I have ever owned or lived in was indivdually built, same for my parents and grandparents. Even my Irish grandmother bought a block in the countryside ouside of dublin in Castlenock, overlooking the Liffy and built her dream house on it in the 60's.

Return housing to the province of the individual and squeeze big business back out of it.

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

There is a super simple solution to this, break away from what to me is a weird model - the mass developer build - and sell off individual blocks to individuals - one per customer.

Actually don't seel them, reserve them in such a way so that the buyer pays a deposit, then if they build a house within 4 years, the land sale goes through and they get full title. Put a 30% stamp duty caveat on it if it's on-sold within 5 years

In Australia, housing used to be an individual sport. You would buy a 1/4 acre block and engage a builder to build you a house. I think the turning of housing into a commoditized team sport for flash harrys and money men out for multi million deals and a nice rakeoff for themselves is part of the price driver.

Every house I have ever owned or lived in was indivdually built, same for my parents and grandparents. Even my Irish grandmother bought a block in the countryside ouside of dublin in Castlenock, overlooking the Liffy and built her dream house on it in the 60's.

Return housing to the province of the individual and squeeze big business back out of it.

Wouldn't that have an inflationary impact on cost, since each build is bespoke?

am_zarathustra

Deleted User wrote: »

Wouldn't that have an inflationary impact on cost, since each build is bespoke?

One off housing is a disaster environmentally, it doesn't really work for utilities and cost effectiveness. it's basically on the way to being banned here as a result. If you removed institutional buyers (who are renting to HAP) by the government building social housing itself the heat would come out and the price would stabilise to what's in actual peoples bank accounts.

One thing won't fix this but as above, I'd love to know the main banks exposure.

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

Wouldn't that have an inflationary impact on cost, since each build is bespoke?

I doubt it, it hasn't in the past. It's the developer mass build, land banking big finance, big deal model that I believe is inflationary.

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

I doubt it, it hasn't in the past. It's the developer mass build, land banking big finance, big deal model that I believe is inflationary.

It's just logically, when I think about it, what costs more? Ten copies of something or ten individual bespoke items?

Just on a cost basis. Labour, materials, etc.

SmokyMo

Fed already hinted that they intent to raise rates sooner than expected. Markets responded positive to that. US benchmark mortgage rates for fixed 15 and 30 years are already up to 3.2%

hometruths

Deleted User wrote: »

It's just logically, when I think about it, what costs more? Ten copies of something or ten individual bespoke items?

Just on a cost basis. Labour, materials, etc.

Or logically remove the developers margin and compare.

But I take your point on economies of scale.

cnocbui

am_zarathustra wrote: »

One off housing is a disaster environmentally, it doesn't really work for utilities and cost effectiveness. it's basically on the way to being banned here as a result. If you removed institutional buyers (who are renting to HAP) by the government building social housing itself the heat would come out and the price would stabilise to what's in actual peoples bank accounts.

One thing won't fix this but as above, I'd love to know the main banks exposure.

I live in a one off house. I didn't build it, because that's a priveledge reserved for the land owning classes in Ireland, and only locals at that, but I bought it semi-finished.

How is it an environmental diaster? There were electricity and phone lines running down the road for half a century before it was built. There is no wtaer main along the road. So the impact of this house to society is nill. I paid for a phone connection to line that was already there. I paid for a well to be drilled, the builder paid for the electricity to be connected to lines already there.

What I have done is help amortize the cost of provisioning utilities to the farms that are along the road and for which the utilities were originally provided for.

I see varadkar is calling for the mortgage lending rules to be "reviewed" asap.

That'll fix price inflation. My assumption is that the CBI will loosen them. The question is how and by how much?

SmokyMo

Deleted User wrote: »

I see varadkar is calling for the mortgage lending rules to be "reviewed" asap.

That'll fix price inflation. My assumption is that the CBI will loosen them. The question is how and by how much?

How does one begin to argue that it is a good idea in current market regime?

Hubertj

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/redbarn-youghal-cork/4510589

This could be stunning when fully refurbished.

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

It's just logically, when I think about it, what costs more? Ten copies of something or ten individual bespoke items?

Just on a cost basis. Labour, materials, etc.

schmittel wrote: »

Or logically remove the developers margin and compare.

But I take your point on economies of scale.

Any benefits to economies of scale, which I believe are very marginal with housing - are eaten as profit by the developer, not passed on to the buyer out of the goodness of their blcak rotten hearts.

My son knows someone in Japan who bought a factory made house built by Toyota. These are built in a factory, the finished components are shipped to the site and the house is erected and complete inside two days.

Economies of scale should make such a thing cheap; It wasn't, it was incredibly expensive.

I have been looking into another factory built modular home system here in Europe. Latest pricing I got on request turned out to be €2677 per square metre, before vat. Then there's the transport costs and crane hire on top of that, etc.

Marius34

Deleted User wrote: »

I see varadkar is calling for the mortgage lending rules to be "reviewed" asap.

That'll fix price inflation. My assumption is that the CBI will loosen them. The question is how and by how much?

I don't think CBI will loosen it. It doesn't make to much sense to loosen at this point. Demands and the price are growing fast, so there is no need to loosen now. It's more likely that they will loosen in few years time, if supplies picks up, and price stabilize/fall.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/redbarn-youghal-cork/4510589

This could be stunning when fully refurbished.

I was looking at that just this morning, thinking exactly the same thing.

Then I suddenly found myself checking out schools in Youghal!

Unfortunately I think Youghal is a bit of a kip.

awec

This is for rent, not for sale, and I would say this is more Kilpedder than Greystones or Delgany, but mmmmmhmmmm. I think I'd even tolerate that kitchen for it.

https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/house-school-house-woodlands-glen-of-the-downs-greystones-co-wicklow/2555820

cnocbui

schmittel wrote: »

I was looking at that just this morning, thinking exactly the same thing.

Then I suddenly found myself checking out schools in Youghal!

Unfortunately I think Youghal is a bit of a kip.

Both my children had their schooling in a smallish semi-rural village. No complaints from a parent's perspective, quite the reverse - highly recommended!. The schools were great and both kids did very well in the LC.

Would you be looking to camp out on the streets of Youghal or would you be spending 99% of your time in your non-kip nicely renovated house?

It's the far sighted individulas who pioneer the gentrification of places who gain the most.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I was looking at that just this morning, thinking exactly the same thing.

Then I suddenly found myself checking out schools in Youghal!

Unfortunately I think Youghal is a bit of a kip.

I don’t think I ever visited Youghal when I lived in cork so can’t comment on it. Waking up to that view every morning, walk, run swim on the beach and all that. BUT you’re surrounded by langers.