Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754173#Comment_120754173

Of the 170k less than 1k would be possible impacted and when you take into account farm land already bought by developers waiting to be rezoned it drops to a handful.

you have a hang up with paying tax that yet again you miss the point. When land is CPO’d for motorways it is done at market value of agricultural land plus a bit extra it’s not CPO’d as zoned land. Any land rezoned that a landowner wishes to sell would still get the agricultural price and 50% (if that’s what is being proposed) of the difference between the sale price and agricultural price) that would be a higher price than most land CPO’d for a motorway.

Also let’s not forget that there is loads of land already zoned for residential and if it’s not being built on then the rezoning of new land (after tax) will mean that the value of it drops. This along with a robust vacant land tax means that land hoarding will not be attractive and badly needed housing should be built.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754362#Comment_120754362

I believe it needs to be applied at the time the land is rezoned otherwise you have developers becoming farmers overnight and not selling or developing the land and we are no better than where we are today.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754480#Comment_120754480

Who is to say only 1k would be affected? The other 169k would think their time will come.

So, you want the owner to pay tax on the zoned value, but the CPO value would be the pre-zoned price?

This is silly.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754521#Comment_120754521

If they hoard the land they will still be liable for the tax when they inevitably do sell. So long as the tax is based on "market value - pre-zoned value", as opposed to market value - ag land value, because price of ag land can increase over time too and minimise tax liability.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754566#Comment_120754566

Silly is assuming that farmland in the middle of nowhere would be impacted. Of the 170k you quoted how many are bordering a large town or city?

with regards the tax it is calculated on difference between the market value of Agricultural land and the market value of residential land. How hard is that to understand?

Anyway we will need to see what is in the bill that is brought forward come autumn.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120753504#Comment_120753504

As I understand it if the farmer has no intention of cashing in for development and wishes to carry on farming the land they can appeal the zoning decision and request the land be dezoned.

This would address most of your concerns.

the point is to tax some farmers who do wish to s ell land for development in order to speed that up.

not to drive farmers off their land who have no wish to sell.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754744#Comment_120754744

If it is accompanied by an aggressive vacant land tax on land zoned as residential then yes any windfall tax could be paid at time of sale.

if there is a vacant land tax that is full of loopholes (which will probably be the case) then doing so at time of sale would mean the land would still be hoarded.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754946#Comment_120754946

This I can understand, but timing belt indicated he/she thought that 80% should apply on the land whether or not the farmer decided to sell.

This is what @Timing belt posted:

”Have you missed the point yet again that the tax needs to be paid when land gets rezoned regardless whether the landowner decides to sell”

My point being, no landowner/farmer should be subjected to an 80% tax on the value of zoned land just by virtue of a change in zoning, when they have no intention of doing anything other than farming their land, and no politician would ever introduce such legislation.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120755014#Comment_120755014

Yes that works too.

Council rezones land and farmer has two choices:

1) Appeal the rezoning and request the land is dezoned. Does not have to pay 80% tax.

2) Pay the 80% tax.

Either way no farmer is going to be forced to pay 80% of the residential development value of his land just so he can continue milking cows.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120754744#Comment_120754744

To me the problem with this is everyone would just cling to the land in the hopes that some political party in future would remove the tax. Think it would massively increase the risk of hoarding.

The Student

A question? Surely someone has to apply to have agri land rezoned for residential? Or are the councils deciding to rezone an area at will.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120755350#Comment_120755350

Ya in the majority of cases the LA just decide to rezone land,

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120755350#Comment_120755350

I didn't think one would apply tbh, I thought it was to do with proximity to towns, villages etc whether it's in the county development plan..

Shit if I knew you could apply, I'd buy the cheapest plot I could find in Leitrim and have it rezoned high density residential/commercial and charge appropriately...but I don't know the ins and outs of it

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120757557#Comment_120757557

Then the council are effectively forcing landowners to do something against their will if a tax is imposed. Say for example a farmer who has not intention of using the land for anything other than farming.

By all means impose a tax if the owner requests rezoning and the value goes up but the existing arrangement seems arse about face.

mike_cork

https://www.thejournal.ie/year-on-year-fall-housing-prices-6102138-Jun2023/

I've highlighted some interesting areas of the article below:

"HOUSING PRICES IN the second quarter of 2023 were 0.5% lower than a year ago, according to the latest Daft.ie House Price Report released today.

This marks the first time since mid-2020 that asking prices have fallen in year-on-year terms."

"Cork and Galway cities saw larger falls in year-on-year terms, of 3.3% and 2.1% respectively."

"“But while demand has weakened, the post-Covid recovery in supply also appears to be weakening, in both new and second-hand segments. Thus, while this year is unlikely to bring any substantial increases in housing prices, underlying issues stemming from housing shortages will persist.” "

theboringfox

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120766168#Comment_120766168

Not seeing much cooling in Cork market. Anything in a good location that you can move into as is seems to be going strong. Definitely think there is some softening where it was house that needed full works just to move in. Good to see this.

CorkRed93

yeah 2nd hand do-er uppers seem to be softening here a little. new builds only going up and up mind you. anecdotal but a friend was looking at buying a do-er upper in cork city , listed for 360, estate agent told him the owners would take 310 for it. house needed lots of work infairness but location was unreal. hopefully a trend there .

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120766260#Comment_120766260

Royale with Cheese

I'm sale agreed on a doer upper and there was no other interest in it. Got outbid in a ridiculous bidding war for a property in a similar condition in the same location only 9 months prior. I've been keeping an eye on the market in case something better comes along as we haven't signed any contracts yet but to be honest there is extremely little. Prices being down slightly is all well and good but if there not much coming up for sale it's not of that much use to anyone.

wassie

All the talk of in the media of the flood of BTLs that were meant to come to market with when the eviction ban was overturned certainly has not transpired.

Given that there are very few rentals for people to move into, the reality is its probably a difficult & time consuming process in trying to get vacant possession.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120766667#Comment_120766667

Or they are now in the short let market.

mike_cork

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120766260#Comment_120766260

My own experience in the Cork City market- I bid on a house approx 2 months ago. Really nice area but the house needed a good bit of work. Was told by estate agent i was the highest bidder at 3.5% under asking. Then estate agent called me to say they had received a bid matching mine but it was a cash offer.

Villa05

Real Estate alliance report

Landlords exiting the market were linked to 36pc of sales

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/price-of-three-bed-semi-in-dublin-hits-500000-for-first-time/a1464061244.html

syrgian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120767315#Comment_120767315

How come this report points out to increasing house prices in Dublin, while the CSO reports decreases? I see the statistic in this report is a lot more simplistic: it just looks at 3 bedroom semi-d sales, so it would be imprecise if the kind of houses sold changes (i.e. more modern, or better located) than in the reference period, and they don't mention the CSO report at all. Does RAE and/or independent.ie have interest in misrepresenting the truth?

Edit:

Just looked what they said in June 2007:

It's plain to see, nevertheless, that this opportunity for buyers may not be with us for very long - it may even have run its course by September/October of this year.

https://web.archive.org/web/20071119025347/http://www.realestatealliance.ie/?vec_action=news_detail&id=71

And September 2007:

Real Estate Alliance members are reporting that the signs are good for a busy Autumn period as viewing numbers are up over the last week. Vendors need to bear in mind that house prices are up on average 25% - 30% since January 2005.

https://web.archive.org/web/20071119030741/http://www.realestatealliance.ie/?vec_action=news_detail&id=74

Not surprised this kind of organization would want to pump prices all the time, no matter the environment.

Edit 2:

Just realized the independent is mentioned as a culprit of the bubble in the wiki:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble#Role_of_the_media

wassie

Prices rose in Cork (1.4pc to €360,000), Limerick (2.9pc to €280,000), Waterford (1.8pc to €285,000) and Galway (0.3pc to €335,000). This was largely due to demand for good-quality homes combined with limited supply. Landlords exiting the market were linked to 36pc of sales.

Theres no context to that stat. Is this 36% of sales nartionally or just Cork, Limerick, Waterford & Galway? And what is the actual number. It says above supply is limited.

Either way, without an increase in supply pricing is not dropping anytime soon.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120767574#Comment_120767574

It's an article aimed at first time buyers. FTBs are usually buying 3 bed semi-ds, and the article is pointing out that this segment of the market is still seeing prices go up.

It's not misrepresenting the truth. And it's not more "simplistic". It's just another pivot on the data.

techdiver

I'm a home owner (well mortgage holder)so not directly effected by any of this, but is there ever going to be light at the end of the tunnel for this dysfunctional system. For my entire adult life (I'm in my 40's now) the property market in Ireland has been a complete **** show. It went from complete batshit prices in the mid 00's to a property crash and and now straight back to batshit crazy again. What makes the current situation worse in my opinion is even Dublin the high days of the property bubble it was still relatively easy to obtain rental accommodation (I rented in Dublin during a 10 year window from 2004 - 2014).

I live in the midlands now and even in a town like Mullingar there are "zero" properties listed for the rental market. How/when does this all end? With demand still increasing, homelessness at an all time high, and supply not even close to matching demand from an existing stock point of view and what is currently being developed and planned, how do we ever get out of this? I have family members still renting and at the behest of landlords who sell properties out form under them with a months notice (this has happened twice in the last 12 months).

I can't see in the long term how this doesn't all come crashing down again. The "younger" generation (those in the their 20's and 30's) are in a considerably worse position than I was at their age and I lived though the worst economic disaster since the great depression. We're told the economy is going gang busters but all I see is a younger generation who are shackled with lower wages (relative to cost of living), less/stunted/delayed career opportunities and a housing market that they can never enter.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120767750#Comment_120767750

Very few FTBs in Dublin are buying 3bed semi-ds these days at 500k a pop. Thats beyond the reach of the vast majority of FTBs.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120768875#Comment_120768875

Thats beyond the reach of the vast majority of FTBs.

It really isn't. Two people early in their career, both decent earners, combined with HTB, 500k is well within reach. 450k mortgage, need a combined income of about 130k, or about 65k each. This is not a very high income for professionals in Dublin.

The 3 bed semi D <=500k segment is the poster child of the FTB market.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120768948#Comment_120768948

Don’t forget the change in lending rules! €450k mortgage now ‘only’ requires €112k joint income.

syrgian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120768948#Comment_120768948

There are no new 3BDR under 500k in Dublin City, as far as I can tell. So no HTB/FHS.