Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

fergus1001

Deleted User wrote:

But what if someone just prefers living rurally? I think that's good enough reason.

the new regulations coming in october means that if you want to build a new house in a rural area you will need to own a certain amount of land so your only option is to buy a house in a rural area

cnocbui

Yurt! wrote: »

Well, I'd have a preference to build a Disney Castle and a rollercoaster surrounding it in the middle of a roundabout.
The planning system has always, and should always, take into account and respect the broader social and economic impact of any development - be it residential or commercial. This is particularly acute when it's acknowledged that the cost of provision of services to rural one-offs far outstrips the same provision to urban, suburban and peri-urban residents.

Another example: The An Post has undergone massive and controversial restructuring in recent years. It is a hard economic and social fact worldwide that the most expensive part of delivery and postal services is the last mile. An Post literally can't turn a buck anymore because of dispersed development, prompting the consolidation of post offices countrywide.

Rural Ireland cries: "Where are my post offices gone!"

Rural Ireland is killing rural Ireland. If you demand a god-given right to plonk a house wherever you see fit, please please don't crow when the consequences of you and others like you doing so comes come to roost.

Now if rural dwellers by and large settled in some reasonable proximity to the nearest village, not only are you giving the economic life of the village a shot, but your post office may just survive as it's actually viable.

More nonsense. One off houses are not the problem, it's declining physical mail volumes leading to reduced revenues throughout the country. The only thing that has saved mail services in many countries from completely going under is the simultaneous rise in package volumes due to ebay, amazon and the like.

It actually started in the 80's with the rise of fax machines, then accelerated with email and the internet. I worked for a postal service for a brief time in my youth, delivering telegrams. Technology killed off that lucrative sideline within a few years of my last doing it. With the decline in revenues from formerly vast volumes of physical mail, prices for sending packages have had to go up to compensate.

In my village, There is a Pharmacy with an attached Optometrists. The two urban professionals don't choose to live in the village, they live further out than I do. Everyone, such as myself, is part of the village economy and contributes to it. Last night I popped down the road and bought Chinese takeaway. Last week I was in the chemist for some hayfever stuff, then i went to the hardware store for some things, then I went to the service station for some petrol for the lawnmower. The week before I went to another pharmacy to get some passport photos. I frequent the local supermarkets often.

The sheer cluelesness of urban dwellers as to how rural economies and communities really work is pure comedy.

Yurt2

cnocbui wrote: »

More nonsense. One off houses are not the problem, it's declining physical mail volumes leading to reduced revenues throughout the country. The only thing that has saved mail services in many countries from completely going under is the simultaneous rise in package volumes due to ebay, amazon and the like.

It actually started in the 80's with the rise of fax machines, then accelerated with email and the internet. I worked for a postal service for a brief time in my youth, delivering telegrams. Technology killed off that lucrative sideline within a few years of my last doing it. With the decline in revenues from formerly vast volumes of physical mail, prices for sending packages have had to go up to compensate.

In my village, There is a Pharmacy with an attached Optometrists. The two urban professionals don't choose to live in the village, they live further out than I do. Everyone, such as myself, is part of the village economy and contributes to it. Last night I popped down the road and bought Chinese takeaway. Last week I was in the chemist for some hayfever stuff, then i went to the hardware store for some things, then I went to the service station for some petrol for the lawnmower. The week before I went to another pharmacy to get some passport photos. I frequent the local supermarkets often.

The sheer cluelesness of urban dwellers as to how rural economies and communities really work is pure comedy.

The fax machine is in the mix now. I'm rolling in the aisles here cnoc.

I'm born and bred rural by the way, so shot fired and missed. My people were working the land in this country generations before you landed here as a tourist.

cnocbui

Yurt! wrote: »

The fax machine is in the mix now. I'm rolling in the aisles here cnoc.

I'm born and bred rural by the way, so shot fired and missed. My people were working the land in this country generations before you landed here as a tourist.

My Grandfather was head disitiller at Jameson's and my mother was born in a house attached to the distillery, which was in Smithfield at the time. The property I am currently selling in Connemara was owned by my great grandfather. I'll dig out the old family tree if you want to engage in further willy waving.

Yurt2

wassie wrote: »

I don't disagree with all you are advocating, but I would take exception with a couple of statements you are using in support of you argument:



Is this not essential infrastructure that also contributes to increased productivity within in the economy? Surely the last 12 months (think WFH) has shown we need good broadband wherever we live. Its not all about streaming services. I would be of the view it the job of Government to fund infrastructure when the private sector wont because its not profitable/viable for them to do so.

Do you think the same argument was had with the electricity and telephone networks when they were rolled out?


You are suggesting An Post has been forced to restructure due to the 'last mile' is misleading at best. Its always been this way and An Post are very efficient thanks to decades of experience delivering to the 'last mile'.

Like every other postal service in the developed world, An Post has been forced to restructure its business thanks to the internet. Consumers have been moving for the last two decades from traditional mail to digital communications. This is termed in the industry as “e-substitution”. Online shopping has resulted in more parcels. This is evidenced buy the the closure of the letter sorting facility at Cork 2 years ago and a new automated Dublin Parcels Hub near the airport last year.

An Post have been explicit about this, if there is a community cluster of 500 or more; the post office will not close. Anything else is uneconomical for them. Rural Ireland killing rural Ireland. One-off bliss but no post office for gran to pick up her pension. Only the most deluded would think that one-off housing has not contributed to the decline of Ireland's villages (and the viability of stop and shop businesses in them for that matter). An Post don't just deliver mail, they're also delivering a cold economic reality to people on this. An Post's very existence was and is under strain from these realities, so it's not all fun and games and bouncy castles in your rural arcadia - we all have skin in the game.

You're not turning a dispersed row of one-off houses in the beyonds of Mayo into Silicon Valley by running fibre optic cable to them. Not begrudging them the cable, and I hope everyone enjoys their streaming (Netflix corp will be grateful for the new subscriptions I'm sure), but let's be honest about who's subventing who and the limited economic benefits of the same as urban standard services are rolled out to extremely peripheral areas largely on transfers generated in sustainable communities.

Yurt2

cnocbui wrote: »

My Grandfather was head disitiller at Jameson's and my mother was born in a house attached to the distillery, which was in Smithfield at the time. The property I am currently selling in Connemara was owned by my great grandfather. I'll dig out the old family tree if you want to engage in further willy waving.

Sure thing mate, I'll throw a shrimp on the barbie as you go fetch it.

cnocbui

Yurt! wrote: »

Sure thing mate, I'll throw a shrimp on the barbie as you go fetch it.

Lol.

Yurt2

I can't believe you actually posted that. It's not actually like I or anyone else gives a sh*te really. You're back off to antipodes in a huff in any case if your posting history is to believed, so I still have you filed under tourist.

Graham

Mod Note

Yurt! / cnocbui, knock it off.

MacronvFrugals

Is there anyone left to come out against the shared-equity scheme?


“Department of Housing officials warned shared equity scheme would hike up house prices”


https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/department-of-housing-officials-warned-shared-equity-scheme-would-hike-up-house-prices-6d0440fb?utm_campaign=article&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=web

Villa05

MacronvFrugals wrote:

Is there anyone left to come out against the shared-equity scheme?

Ff were always party before country. Getting more people with skin in the housing market bubble is viewed as good for the party, its impsct on the country is irrelevant to them

Murph85

<SNIP>

hometruths

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Is there anyone left to come out against the shared-equity scheme?


“Department of Housing officials warned shared equity scheme would hike up house prices”


https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/department-of-housing-officials-warned-shared-equity-scheme-would-hike-up-house-prices-6d0440fb?utm_campaign=article&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=web

Interesting piece. More damning comments from Dept of Housing officials:

“It seems quite obvious, although it is not stated, the builders will only increase supply if they can get more for what they build. It is the builders who are receiving the incentive, not the purchasers,” the review said.

and

"How do we believe this won’t lead to house price inflation in a small cohort of the market?” it said. "How can this not lead to inflation?“

It added that “Developers get [the] benefit of increased risk-free profit” and "proposals simply circumnavigate prudential lending rules“.

yagan

You don't have to believe in a developer conspiracy against the public if they all think alike anyway.

The government has to build houses directly as the free market isn't driven by social stability, it's profit driven.

wassie

fergus1001 wrote: »

the new regulations coming in october means that if you want to build a new house in a rural area you will need to own a certain amount of land so your only option is to buy a house in a rural area

What new regulations do you refer to (planning Im assuming)?

Villa05

Rea report ominous with prices rising by up to 1500 per week. Limerick and Drogheda seeing double digit increases in 3 months.
Remember the celtic tiger when your house earned more than u

Reminds me of the hbo mini series on chernobyl where the nuclear physicist was explaining how a nuclear reactor works and how balance is required. When it is lost - diisaster

This is happening without the shared ownership scheme. Imagine what will happen then

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Rea report ominous with prices rising by up to 1500 per week. Limerick and Drogheda seeing double digit increases in 3 months.
Remember the celtic tiger when your house earned more than u

Reminds me of the hbo mini series on chernobyl where the nuclear physicist was explaining how a nuclear reactor works and how balance is required. When it is lost - diisaster

This is happening without the shared ownership scheme. Imagine what will happen then

Why would people want to live in Drogheda?

cruizer101

Hubertj wrote: »

Why would people want to live in Drogheda?

Easy enough access to Dublin via train and even not too bad down the motorway, whilst big enough to have a lot of what you need on your doorstep.
Beside the sea so beaches close, cooley mountains only up the road, Belfast not far for cheap shopping trips up North.
Plenty of reasons to live there, wouldn't be quite my cup of tea but can understand plenty of people wanting to live there.
With people going maybe partial WFH with offices in Dublin its an ideal location for getting more bang for your buck.

Why wouldn't they want to live there?

jill_valentine

Hubertj wrote: »

Why would people want to live in Drogheda?

Low house prices vs other towns with comparable access to Dublin. I've considered it myself tbh, pre covid I was working with people who were renting and commuting from Drogheda. It's a little less grim than Longford too imho, especially if you drive.

Villa05

jill_valentine wrote:

Low house prices compared to comparable access to Dublin elsewhere. I've considered it myself tbh, pre covid I was working with people who were renting and commuting from Drogheda.

The report that stated more Dublin workers lived outside Dublin than inside is quite dated, would be interesting to see how that has regressed over the years since

Balluba

Daft Q2house price report is out this morning.

fliball123

Balluba wrote: »

Daft Q2house price report is out this morning.

prices up 13% so much for the doomsdayers. We could be looking at another 2/3 years of price increases

MacronvFrugals

fliball123 wrote: »

prices up 13% so much for the doomsdayers. We could be looking at another 2/3 years of price increases

Your son will be sweating for your early death :P

fliball123

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Your son will be sweating for your early death :P

Maybe but the doom and gloom and crash talk from 2019 to the end 2020 can now be put to bed in hindsight. God knows what way things will go but one thing is for sure there needs to be less government involvement in the market and their focus should be on building.

SmokyMo

fliball123 wrote: »

Maybe but the doom and gloom and crash talk from 2019 to the end 2020 can now be put to bed in hindsight. God knows what way things will go but one thing is for sure there needs to be less government involvement in the market and their focus should be on building.

What do you would have happened without government massive intervention for the past 1.5 year?
The is no 'free' market, especially in Ireland.

fliball123

SmokyMo wrote: »

What do you would have happened without government massive intervention for the past 1.5 year?
The is no 'free' market, especially in Ireland.

Well the FTB incentives only make sense if there is no supply issue, as this combination has pushed prices up for new builds and has also has the knock on affect of pushing up second hand properties. The money, resources, time and effort should of been on using Nama to start building. I know there are issues with regards to costs of both labour and materials but they need to start somewhere. There also needs to be a more punitive tax burden on Vultures and REITS.

Marius34

SmokyMo wrote: »

What do you would have happened without government massive intervention for the past 1.5 year?
The is no 'free' market, especially in Ireland.

We can't know well what if, less the "experts" on this thread would know.
But that doesn't change the fact that crashers totally failed with their expertise.

woejus

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Your son will be sweating for your early death :P

there's a sitcom plot in that I reckon

where's that head the ball poster who was always going on about his son's "war chest" - wiped out in a single quarter of vertiginous price rises lolz

timmyntc

fliball123 wrote: »

Well the FTB incentives only make sense if there is no supply issue, as this combination has pushed prices up for new builds and has also has the knock on affect of pushing up second hand properties. The money, resources, time and effort should of been on using Nama to start building. I know there are issues with regards to costs of both labour and materials but they need to start somewhere. There also needs to be a more punitive tax burden on Vultures and REITS.

FTB incentives will always push prices up.
If theres not a supply issue, prices will rise miniscule amounts but will still rise.

If the government really wanted to help FTBers, they would build more houses.
Have new builds specific for FTB or something.

Amadan Dubh

fliball123 wrote: »

Maybe but the doom and gloom and crash talk from 2019 to the end 2020 can now be put to bed in hindsight. God knows what way things will go but one thing is for sure there needs to be less government involvement in the market and their focus should be on building.

It was a bubble before covid, for the same conditions that have been at play during covid, except that covid had made it much worse. The simple reason is this; what would happen if the QE tap was turned off?

Commercial property is the canary in the coal mine and just look at the property fund suspensions which occurred in 2019/2020; these had nothing to do with covid. Seems odd that there were runs on property funds if everything was on more stable ground pre-covid. Hopefully politics will kick in before the bubble can pop (ie interest rate rises and significant investment in public housebuilding programmes) but potentially a large pension fund going under is what would indicate the chains have broken and the market is crashing.

As a separate point; with the whole WFH thing becoming stabilised into something that is clearly a long term adoption for most companies, with the Daft report today, will we start to see people moving over the border to N.I. where rents are significantly cheaper than the Republic? From going on propertypal.com and searching for rentals, it's crazy how much cheaper they are over the border.

https://www.propertypal.com/16-queens-square-17-queens-square-belfast/477716/photo-12

£775 for a nice 2 bedroom, in the heart of Belfast City centre. You'd be down in Dublin City centre on public transport in 2 hours. Even if you wanted to just stay for a year or two you'd save good money doing that compared to renting down here.

Marius34

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

It was a bubble before covid, for the same conditions that have been at play during covid, except that covid had made it much worse. The simple reason is this; what would happen if the QE tap was turned off?

Commercial property is the canary in the coal mine and just look at the property fund suspensions which occurred in 2019/2020; these had nothing to do with covid. Seems odd that there were runs on property funds if everything was on more stable ground pre-covid. Hopefully politics will kick in before the bubble can pop (ie interest rate rises and significant investment in public housebuilding programmes) but potentially a large pension fund going under is what would indicate the chains have broken and the market is crashing.

As a separate point; with the whole WFH thing becoming stabilised into something that is clearly a long term adoption for most companies, with the Daft report today, will we start to see people moving over the border to N.I. where rents are significantly cheaper than the Republic? From going on propertypal.com and searching for rentals, it's crazy how much cheaper they are over the border.

https://www.propertypal.com/16-queens-square-17-queens-square-belfast/477716/photo-12

£775 for a nice 2 bedroom, in the heart of Belfast City centre. You'd be down in Dublin City centre on public transport in 2 hours. Even if you wanted to just stay for a year or two you'd save good money doing that compared to renting down here.

If you call 2019 as Bubble, this Bubble may never end.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

If you call 2019 as Bubble, this Bubble may never end.

This bubble is different.

schmittel

schmittel wrote: »

This bubble is different.

Thanks for sharing that paywall.

hometruths

Deleted User wrote: »

Thanks for sharing that paywall.

Timing belt

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

It was a bubble before covid, for the same conditions that have been at play during covid, except that covid had made it much worse. The simple reason is this; what would happen if the QE tap was turned off?

Commercial property is the canary in the coal mine and just look at the property fund suspensions which occurred in 2019/2020; these had nothing to do with covid. Seems odd that there were runs on property funds if everything was on more stable ground pre-covid. Hopefully politics will kick in before the bubble can pop (ie interest rate rises and significant investment in public housebuilding programmes) but potentially a large pension fund going under is what would indicate the chains have broken and the market is crashing.

As a separate point; with the whole WFH thing becoming stabilised into something that is clearly a long term adoption for most companies, with the Daft report today, will we start to see people moving over the border to N.I. where rents are significantly cheaper than the Republic? From going on propertypal.com and searching for rentals, it's crazy how much cheaper they are over the border.

https://www.propertypal.com/16-queens-square-17-queens-square-belfast/477716/photo-12

£775 for a nice 2 bedroom, in the heart of Belfast City centre. You'd be down in Dublin City centre on public transport in 2 hours. Even if you wanted to just stay for a year or two you'd save good money doing that compared to renting down here.

According to the Vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sectors of the EEA countries issued Sept 2019 by the ESRB (European Systemic Risk Board) the Central Bank of Ireland’s own valuation metrics indicate that house prices are now in line with or just above values justified by economic fundamentals (see page 101)

This doesn't sound like a bubble was in existence in 2019.

The same report highlighted the impact of funds/Reits on Irish property prices.
e.g.
The LTV limit was calibrated based on the past experience with losses of loan defaults, and it should currently provide sufficient security against a potential accumulation in house price overvaluation. While the house prices have continued to grow significantly after these limits were introduced, this may be related to the high share of non-mortgage-financed purchases (and to housing supply shortages).

With regards living in NI and working in ROI to save money... I think you would need to look at the tax impact as you would be a UK resident and therefore liable to tax in the UK.

Marius34

Marius34 wrote: »

We can't know well what if, less the "experts" on this thread would know.
But that doesn't change the fact that crashers totally failed with their expertise.

They’ll keep shouting “crash” until there’s a crash. Even if it’s in 3 or 4 years time. And then say they were right.

Timing belt

Deleted User wrote: »

They’ll keep shouting “crash” until there’s a crash. Even if it’s in 3 or 4 years time. And then say they were right.

The infinite monkey theorem

Amadan Dubh

Timing belt wrote: »

According to the Vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sectors of the EEA countries issued Sept 2019 by the ESRB (European Systemic Risk Board) the Central Bank of Ireland’s own valuation metrics indicate that house prices are now in line with or just above values justified by economic fundamentals (see page 101)

This doesn't sound like a bubble was in existence in 2019.

The same report highlighted the impact of funds/Reits on Irish property prices.
e.g.
The LTV limit was calibrated based on the past experience with losses of loan defaults, and it should currently provide sufficient security against a potential accumulation in house price overvaluation. While the house prices have continued to grow significantly after these limits were introduced, this may be related to the high share of non-mortgage-financed purchases (and to housing supply shortages).

With regards living in NI and working in ROI to save money... I think you would need to look at the tax impact as you would be a UK resident and therefore liable to tax in the UK.

Actually, I didn't even think of the tax concern. I mean, whatever about working in Germany or Spain, surely there's a slim to none chance you'd ever fall foul of tax laws living in NI and working in the Republic.

On the 2019 bubble point, I am reading your post but coming to my same conclusion. The bubble is due to stifled supply (when the economy rebounded and demand due to immigration rocketed) mixed with non-mortgage financed purchases with deep pockets hoovering up land and developments.

Supply consistently falling far short of demand, the State supporting 1/3 of all tenancies and likely growing given the increases in rents and house prices is ongoing, rents and house prices close to or hitting Celtic Tiger highs despite LTV limits and muted wage growth. There's nothing economically sound about what has happened.

As I said, remove QE and massive state supports for the property market and look what will happen. It's overdue a significant correction. The real economy won't be allowed to grow while property sucks so much money out of it.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

prices up 13% so much for the doomsdayers. We could be looking at another 2/3 years of price increases

Would it be a case of 3 year price increases in what looks like 3 months. Looks like the pandemic spending had some effect. Imagine spending so much money with the net effect driving up the price of assets you are the primary customer of through inflation linked long term leasing

People say this time it's different because there is no credit splurge. Wonder how "free money" dished out by the very same sector that caused the last crash works out in comparison

Timing belt

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Actually, I didn't even think of the tax concern. I mean, whatever about working in Germany or Spain, surely there's a slim to none chance you'd ever fall foul of tax laws living in NI and working in the Republic.

On the 2019 bubble point, I am reading your post but coming to my same conclusion. The bubble is due to stifled supply (when the economy rebounded and demand due to immigration rocketed) mixed with non-mortgage financed purchases with deep pockets hoovering up land and developments.

Supply consistently falling far short of demand, the State supporting 1/3 of all tenancies and likely growing given the increases in rents and house prices is ongoing, rents and house prices close to or hitting Celtic Tiger highs despite LTV limits and muted wage growth. There's nothing economically sound about what had happened.

As I said, remive QE and massive state supports for the property market and look what will happen. It's overdue a significant correction.

I agree that supply falling short of demand and a high level of immigration around 2019 pushed prices higher but I don't know would I call it a bubble in 2019.

I know you talk about QE being removed but that is a process that will take at least 10-15 years to unwind as the central banks taper QE. They are not going to overnight start selling all the government bonds they hold and instead will rollover a smaller amount as they mature. If inflation is temporary as the central banks are predicting then we will remain in a low rate environment for some time to come and if the economies of the world don't see economic growth start you can be sure that more QE will be undertaken by the central banks. Although its unlikely at present rates could go lower in an effort to kick start the economic engine if it starts to stall.

fliball123

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

It was a bubble before covid, for the same conditions that have been at play during covid, except that covid had made it much worse. The simple reason is this; what would happen if the QE tap was turned off?

Commercial property is the canary in the coal mine and just look at the property fund suspensions which occurred in 2019/2020; these had nothing to do with covid. Seems odd that there were runs on property funds if everything was on more stable ground pre-covid. Hopefully politics will kick in before the bubble can pop (ie interest rate rises and significant investment in public housebuilding programmes) but potentially a large pension fund going under is what would indicate the chains have broken and the market is crashing.

As a separate point; with the whole WFH thing becoming stabilised into something that is clearly a long term adoption for most companies, with the Daft report today, will we start to see people moving over the border to N.I. where rents are significantly cheaper than the Republic? From going on propertypal.com and searching for rentals, it's crazy how much cheaper they are over the border.

https://www.propertypal.com/16-queens-square-17-queens-square-belfast/477716/photo-12

£775 for a nice 2 bedroom, in the heart of Belfast City centre. You'd be down in Dublin City centre on public transport in 2 hours. Even if you wanted to just stay for a year or two you'd save good money doing that compared to renting down here.

turning the tap off does not sort out our over demand and under supply issue

Hubertj

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Actually, I didn't even think of the tax concern. I mean, whatever about working in Germany or Spain, surely there's a slim to none chance you'd ever fall foul of tax laws living in NI and working in the Republic.

On the 2019 bubble point, I am reading your post but coming to my same conclusion. The bubble is due to stifled supply (when the economy rebounded and demand due to immigration rocketed) mixed with non-mortgage financed purchases with deep pockets hoovering up land and developments.

Supply consistently falling far short of demand, the State supporting 1/3 of all tenancies and likely growing given the increases in rents and house prices is ongoing, rents and house prices close to or hitting Celtic Tiger highs despite LTV limits and muted wage growth. There's nothing economically sound about what has happened.

As I said, remove QE and massive state supports for the property market and look what will happen. It's overdue a significant correction. The real economy won't be allowed to grow while property sucks so much money out of it.

Not sure all employers would/could allow you to work from another country, tax wouldn’t be the only consideration. Also, why would someone want to live in the basket case that is Northern Ireland? Political landscape in the republic is bad but when you compare it to the North.

cnocbui

fliball123 wrote: »

prices up 13% so much for the doomsdayers. We could be looking at another 2/3 years of price increases

My take on this thread is that the majority of people's interest lies in the purchase side of the deal, not the selling. I would be one of the very few interested from a sellers perspective.

The doom and gloom was probably just good old observer bias.

Timing belt

fliball123 wrote: »

turning the tap off does not sort out our over demand and under supply issue

The only thing that I can see impacting the supply/demand issue over the next 2-3 years is massive emigration. Even if we see a massive uptick in building of new properties the time line for delivery is more than likely going to be at least 2-3 years out.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

According to the Vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sectors of the EEA countries issued Sept 2019 by the ESRB (European Systemic Risk Board) the Central Bank of Ireland’s own valuation metrics indicate that house prices are now in line with or just above values justified by economic fundamentals (see page 101)

This doesn't sound like a bubble was in existence in 2019.

Are those economic fundamentals the similiar to those they discussed in the 2007 Financial Stability report?:

Regarding future house price developments, factors such as investors’ participation in the property market, the sustainability of current rates of immigration, the cost of borrowing and the performance of the labour market are all important. The underlying fundamentals of the residential market continue to be reasonably strong.

fliball123

Timing belt wrote: »

The only thing that I can see impacting the supply/demand issue over the next 2-3 years is massive emigration. Even if we see a massive uptick in building of new properties the time line for delivery is more than likely going to be at least 2-3 years out.

Well with our time lines dropping from 8 years to a few months for undocumented immigrants to get legal status here I cant see there being a minus nett figure here anytime soon and these people will be gaining from our left learning narrative of housing for all no matter the cost or who picks up the bill.

Why have the government not used Nama for social housing??

Amadan Dubh

Timing belt wrote: »

I agree that supply falling short of demand and a high level of immigration around 2019 pushed prices higher but I don't know would I call it a bubble in 2019.

I know you talk about QE being removed but that is a process that will take at least 10-15 years to unwind as the central banks taper QE. They are not going to overnight start selling all the government bonds they hold and instead will rollover a smaller amount as they mature. If inflation is temporary as the central banks are predicting then we will remain in a low rate environment for some time to come and if the economies of the world don't see economic growth start you can be sure that more QE will be undertaken by the central banks. Although its unlikely at present rates could go lower in an effort to kick start the economic engine if it starts to stall.

Of course in practice QE probably won't be unwound in a meaningful way anytime soon but I am confident that QE has found its way into assets, including property, which has had a big hand in inflating them to these levels. Especially during covid the link between QE and assets has been particularly pronounced. But, like I said, my hope is that politics kicks in before the bubble can burst and political intervention in terms of managing the QE and interest rate rises combined with significant public house building programmes and other supply stimulating measures.

mcsean2163

Villa05 wrote: »

Rea report ominous with prices rising by up to 1500 per week. Limerick and Drogheda seeing double digit increases in 3 months.
Remember the celtic tiger when your house earned more than u

Reminds me of the hbo mini series on chernobyl where the nuclear physicist was explaining how a nuclear reactor works and how balance is required. When it is lost - diisaster

This is happening without the shared ownership scheme. Imagine what will happen then

Isn't it all going to crash in August? Propqueries has been very quiet of late ..

Amadan Dubh

Hubertj wrote: »

Not sure all employers would/could allow you to work from another country, tax wouldn’t be the only consideration. Also, why would someone want to live in the basket case that is Northern Ireland? Political landscape in the republic is bad but when you compare it to the North.

If you could save €1k+ per month on your rent, then I'm sure people would consider it for 6 months/1/2 year(s). I've never actually been to the North myself.

MacronvFrugals

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Isn't it all going to crash in August? Propqueries has been very quiet of late ..

Might be worth reading the first post of this thread...