Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

hometruths

Estae agents are still predicting prices rises:

However, about half (47 per cent) said they believe the market has reached “a mid-upturn phase”, meaning that house prices are still increasing but the rate of growth may be expected to level off soon.

Has anybody else heard the expression “a mid-upturn phase” before? It's a new one on me.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2023/07/21/housing-completions-to-decline-this-year-say-estate-agents/

timmyntc

Prices outside Dublin, Cork, Galway continuing to rise a lot.

Regional towns are seeing big price jumps from people moving away from GDA due to being outpriced.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120880625#Comment_120880625

Soft landing has been retired, I suspect

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120861259#Comment_120861259

Good god, it's revolting.

Villa05

This must be the fastest growing sector of the electorate.

Wonder will the 5 householders vote for a party that implement policies that make housing unaffordable

Ms Ní Chéileachair said she has had to move back in with her parents, who already have a full house.

"There's five adults in a tiny, detached house in Bray at the moment," she said

"My sister just had a baby, so it's really not the best situation for all of us

https://www.newstalk.com/news/who-are-these-aimed-at-teacher-living-with-parents-slams-home-buyer-schemes-1489125

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120885757#Comment_120885757

Perhaps she should consider a house share with someone other than her parents, and it comes as a surprise to no one that a single income buyer struggles to compete against dual income buyers for available stock, I really don’t see anything remarkable about that article other than my sympathy for the parents.

grumpyperson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120885757#Comment_120885757

It seems the state is not providing for a big segment of the population. I wonder what the Irish born birth rate is now... wouldn't surprise me if it was a lot lower than the 1.6 average, especially in Leinster.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp3oy/cp3/assr/

People like her are educated and responsible and want to be in a position to independently provide for children and won't have kids unless they have secure accommodation. People like that are missing the opportunity to start a family. It's sad, time waits for no man.

IMHO, we need to be providing for these people as well as those on hap and new arrivals.

P.S. the affordability stats in the study quoted are from 2019 so much worse now and the average obviously includes very well paid tech workers. The median might be a better indicator.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120885931#Comment_120885931

Well just doing some rough maths here - shes about to start her 8th year of teaching. It takes on average 3 years of teaching before getting a full time contract, so shes probably got about 5 years full time experience. That would put her on 47k gross a year, or 3k a month net.

As of today there are currently 5 total rentals on DAFT for Arklow, the cheapest is for 1600/month. Thats almost 55% of her net income, way too high to be sustainable. There are no individual rooms available to rent. And given shes a teacher she can't just up sticks and move - shes very much tied to her school.

What realistic option does she have in that scenario exactly?

Its worth bearing in mind too that this is someone who has two college degrees, a middle class job, and is in their 30s. Its not a minimum wage worker or someone at the very start of their career. Its also someone in a relatively low cost of living rural area, shes not looking to rent in Ballsbridge.

This demographic of person should not be forced to live with their parents in their 30s in an in any way functional housing market, its a hugely damning illustration of the current utterly broken state of affairs in Ireland. And its failing not just her, but her siblings and her parents too - all 5 of them should be voting for change.

theboringfox

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120885931#Comment_120885931

Agreed. It would be very normal at that age to be renting room in a house. I dont see how it is a realistic expectation to rent your own entire place. I certainly couldnt have. I get these stories when its a couple or family with kids in 30s or 40s and cant get onto housing market and being screwed by rent.

CorkRed93

god forbid somebody in full time employment might be able to find an affordable place of their own to rent.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120886265#Comment_120886265

God doesn’t forbid it, there is no great mathematical talent needed to understand that a renter/buyer with a single income will struggle in a market when competing against others who are willing to share the cost of rental accommodation and the price of a property purchase.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120886085#Comment_120886085

If she is a car owner, single and willing to share, she likely has more options than living in Arklow with her parents.

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120886348#Comment_120886348

oh thats grand so

theboringfox

It would be great but entirely unrealistic world where most could afford their own place 8 years into working. I think the poster is reasonable saying that does not point to a housing crisis. That does not mean there is not a housing crisis but these are not good examples being picked up by media. That is how I picked it up from poster and I think they are being reasonable.

jj880

Thread never ceases to amaze. 1 bed apartments in Athlone could reach 1 million euro and there'd still be people on here saying ah sure tis grand.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120886348#Comment_120886348

Which options? Can you show the thread some if its so easy?

Because there are literally zero rental options in Arklow cheaper than 1600 per month on DAFT.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120886194#Comment_120886194

At no point in time prior to very recently was it normal for a person with a masters degree, a good middle class stable job, and in their 30s, to be renting a room in a houseshare in a rural area in Ireland. Up until very recently a person of that demographic in that sort of area would comfortably own their own house at that stage in their life, nevermind owning an apartment, or even renting an apartment.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120886751#Comment_120886751

Silly, that is not what is being said.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120886907#Comment_120886907

Options which mean if you are willing to drive, there are properties available to rent, and buy within a 20km radius of Arklow. When I mentioned a car, I had assumed you would make the connection.

I would also say that it may not have been as commonplace as you say for single teachers to own their homes 8 years out of college. Certainly I would be interested to see the stats you used to make that assertion.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120886907#Comment_120886907

Different times and different priorities. There is a greater focus on enjoying your 20s/ early 30s now which isn't a bad thing but people can't really moan if they failed to stow away a few bob for a decent deposit after a decade working. There is a housing shortage but there is also a severe issue with fiscal responsibility in this country.

A neighbours son in his mid 30s whos a teacher moved back in home two years ago because he can't afford rent. He is currently on his third holiday abroad so far this year and bought a new premium car this year on fiance. His folks said he had to move home to save a deposit or he would never be able to afford a house, sounds like he is on the right track.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120887005#Comment_120887005

Ok, so can you link to some of these plentiful affordable options to rent within 20km of Arklow that you keep saying exist, as already requested? Or are you just going to keep repeating how easy it is without providing any evidence?

I know large numbers of teachers who're all 50+. Every single one who was based in a rural area owned a property by 30, including plenty by themselves. It would have been incredibly uncommon to be in your 30s renting a room in a houseshare in a rural area - and not just for teachers, for any university educated professional with multiple degrees. Ask anyone actually from a rural area.

There are obviously no specific statistics publicly available for teachers, but for the age group as a whole in Ireland the trend is very well reported on. "The statistics show that over 60pc of those born in the 1960s owned a home by age 30, but this figure fell to 39pc for those born in the 1970s and 32pc for those born in the 1980s.[1]". Home ownership rates were even higher than those overall ones for university educated professionals in rural areas obviously, too - the overall figures include lower earners, Dublin residents etc.

[1]https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/home-ownership-by-the-age-of-30-nearly-halved-in-space-of-a-generation/40411353.html

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120887369#Comment_120887369

Blut2, just search daft, if you increase distance to +20km, there are places advertised to rent. Are they plentiful? No, but if you want to rent alone, then the options are to go live with your parents or accept that you are going to have to commute in order to improve your chances of renting. I also put 200-250k in the buy search and widened it to within a 30 km commute, which is hardly a hardship considering some of the distances people travel to work, again, there are options.

Christ this stuff isn’t difficult, maybe you are a product of our times, everything has to be done for you.

1990s isn’t “very recently”, 2000 isn’t even that when it comes to property ownership, You are comparing a time when it was normal for households to only have one earner, that simply does not apply today. A single person such as the teacher in the article is competing against partners who both work, it is therefore not a huge leap to expect that it has become progressively more difficult for a single earner to outbid a couple.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120887239#Comment_120887239

The statistics don't bear that out at all. Current younger generations spend less money socialising than any before them, "There is a greater focus on enjoying your 20s/ early 30s now" is completely incorrect:

Thats trends in alcohol consumption among young people aged 15–24 years, 2002–2020[1]. They also have less sex, and less fun in general[2].

Which is fairly besides the point - when the median housing price is now €313,000 (€635,000 in Dun Laoghaire!) in Ireland, and the median salary is still only about €41,000 its pretty disingenuous to blame someone's lifestyle for not saving enough to buy a house. Thats not an affordable equation, even if you were saving 30% of your net income for a decade - which would be some going.

[1]https://www.drugsandalcohol.ie/37095/

[2]https://www.economist.com/international/2018/01/10/teenagers-are-better-behaved-and-less-hedonistic-nowadays

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120887431#Comment_120887431

You've claimed repeatedly that there are plenty of options within easy commuting distance of Arklow that this woman could easily be renting for a reasonable portion of her wage if she was bothered. But you can't seem to link to any of them to back up this assertion, which would suggest you have no idea what you're talking about and are just making unsubstantiated claims.

0ph0rce0

I love boards. "I have a house beside my job" so everyone else that works in the city that's not me should move to the aran islands and commute.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120887459#Comment_120887459

Ok, I’m going to start with the simplest rebuttal, where did I say options are plentiful? In fact I said the opposite, what I did say is that there are options if she is willing to commute. If you can show me where I said there are plenty of options, do so.

How do I know there are indeed rental options within commutable distances? Simple, you can confirm it yourself, go to daft, expand the search for rentals + 20km from Arklow and you will get the confirmation you are looking for, if I need to do that for you, then I despair.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120887433#Comment_120887433

Don't know how you came to the conclusion that they are socialising less, the website you linked to shows that alcohol consumption has dropped but indicates that its being replaced with illicit drug use in the age bracket higlighted. There has also been a shift towards the consumption of more expensive drinks go to any pub in the city now and the bar staff are all busy mixing 10-15 euro cocktails instead of pulling pints.

Your second link is just a fluff piece from the states, LA and Ireland are very different places.

31 grand should be an achievable amount to save over 10 years for anybody who is fiscally responsible but there are so many in their mid 30s that don't have it.

shawki

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120887459#Comment_120887459

Things as are bad when you can’t even open an app.

€900 a month, 25 minutes from Arklow

https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/house-3-courtyard-cottages-rosnastraw-tinahely-co-wicklow/5338418

herbalplants

In the news today :ECB interest rates unlikely to decrease before 2025

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120887799#Comment_120887799

The statistics don't agree with you, again.

Illicit drug use in the previous 12 months has increased from 12.2% to 17.7% in the equivalent time. An extra 5.5% of young people taking drugs, all of which bar cocaine are significantly cheaper than alcohol, is not impacting that generation's ability to afford houses meaningfully. Over 82% of young people haven't touched drugs in the past year.

Additionally, 80% of Irish nightclubs have closed in the last 23 years[1]. There has also been a 21% decline in the number of pubs in the country since 2005 [2]. Neither of those real life figures would suggest that young people are out drinking copious amounts of 15 euro cocktails now would they? They'd confirm the exact opposite - young people in Ireland are drinking far, far less than previous generations. They're not blowing their potential mortgage deposits on partying.

The Economist piece presents data on countries all across Europe and in the Anglosphere - England, Wales, Australia, the Netherlands, Germany, Canada, France etc, which Ireland shares trends with. It doesn't use any data from LA. You clearly didn't read past the first paragraph.

[1]https://nialler9.com/four-in-five-irish-nightclubs-have-shut-licencing/

[2]https://www.ibec.ie/drinksireland/news-insights-and-events/insights/2022/08/05/over-21-decline-in-irish-pubs-since-2005

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120887562#Comment_120887562

You've repeatedly tried to suggest how easy it would be for her to rent a property within commuting distance of Arklow if she just tried. But are apparently unable to give any examples of such easy to find properties. Here are the actual facts, since you're clearly desperate to avoid linking to them:

• There are 5 properties to rent total, in Arklow itself currently. 1600/month is the cheapest, not remotely affordable for someone with a net income of 3k
• Assuming she can drive and can afford to run a car there are a grand total of *2* properties (including the one linked to above) under 1000euro a month (ie a sustainable below 33% of her net income) within a 50km round trip commute. The corrugated iron shed might be counted as a third, depending on the renter's masochism.

Trying to claim that the woman should just easily find a property to rent, in an area of 400 square km with a grand total of two properties available to rent within budget, is at best obtuse and at worse deliberately misleading. Thats not a functional housing market.