Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120907147#Comment_120907147

That doesn't really answer the question I asked whether these properties are irrelevant or not.

The property market is constantly moving indeed, and if 35k vacant rental properties are irrelevant at the point in time of the census, because they were occupied a few weeks later, then logic dictates that the equivalent space in other properties was vacated a few weeks later. The supposed occupants did not appear out of thin air.

I'm not arguing that the market broken, that's clear for all to see. I am arguing that the census data does not support the theory that the market is broken because of lack of existing stock.

These thousands of other properties are hiding in plain sight. If the CSO found them and counted them, they exist. Airbnb is an obvious explanation for a lot of them.

Currently there are 77 properties listed for rent on Daft in Co Galway.

Filtered by entire property (ie removing rooms in peoples houses) there are over a 1000 on airbnb in Co Galway.

markw7

Any chance of creating a vacant houses thread and not clogging this one up with this inane sh!te?

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120907295#Comment_120907295

It shows that rent has got more expensive for sure, but what other data in that report are you seeing that shows the situation has gotten worse by every single metric?

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120907395#Comment_120907395

We're discussing the CSO's release of their profile of the housing stock in Ireland, the most comprehensive and in depth data on property available. If you think that's inane shite in the context of an Irish Property Market chat thread, fair enough, just ignore it.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120905524#Comment_120905524

Over the 20-year period from 1991 to 2011, the number of homes went up by over 70% while the population grew by 30%.

The number of births in the 1980s was quite high. A family of 4 brothers and sisters born in the late 70's or early 80's would probably have been looking for houses before 2011. So even though the population might not have increased by as much, the demand for houses likely did. So 70% vs 30% does not necessarily point to an oversuppy on its own. That family would also have been the first generation not to have mass emigration upon adulthood.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120907395#Comment_120907395

It's complete horse&#@te using census figures on vacant houses.

Fingal done a sample study on census houses vacant with a view to trying to rent them. Only problem was the vast majority were occupied!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/cso-standing-over-census-figures-of-183-000-vacant-dwellings-1.3221521

CSO standing over Census figures of 183,000 vacant dwellings

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120908389#Comment_120908389

What is the criteria for counting a house as "vacant" as per CSO? Is it an explicit declaration or just an assumption because the form wasn't returned?

Could there be people renting houses for cash who simply declare them as vacant or tell their tenants not to fill it in? Or just people on holidays. Old people on the Fair Deal in nursing homes? Holiday homes?

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120908151#Comment_120908151

The average household size from 1991 to 2021 also dropped from from 3.5 to 2.75 as we moved to smaller families and more singe/divorced people.

So even if our population had stayed the same numerically that by itself would have required huge numbers of additional housing units to be built to keep pace.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120908422#Comment_120908422

AFAIK no form returned= house empty.

All of the above n also there'd be a fair proportion of people in fingal now that English wouldn't be there first language n maybe wouldn't understand the half of it. Do they have it translated online or anything? I dunno

herbalplants

48,49 and 51 Upper Gardiner street Dublin 1 all for sale.

Rental business must be going bad for them.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120908554#Comment_120908554

So we are jumping from "form not returned" to "house available for rent".........................

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120908584#Comment_120908584

Not quite. These misconceptions are common and have come up before. THE CSO addresses them comprehensively:

What were the rules that made enumerators determine the dwellings were vacant?

Census enumerators adhered to detailed procedures that have been developed by the CSO in consultation with key experts across several censuses. As part of these procedures, enumerators varied the times of the day, and days of the week, they called to dwellings in order to make contact with householders. For example, when an enumerator called to a home during the day and failed to make contact, they dropped off their contact telephone number on a calling card. The subsequent visits were at different times such as evenings and weekends.

Enumerators also looked for signs of vacancy such as post and junk mail building up, no lights on at night, no cars in driveways, overgrown gardens, or no windows open. If they observed any signs of occupancy, they could not record the home as vacant. Where they could not make contact with a particular household, the enumerator checked with neighbours to enquire about the dwellings. If neighbours told them there were people living in these dwellings, the enumerator could not record them as vacant.

For Census 2022, the CSO introduced a new smartphone application that enabled enumerators to record information about every home in their area. This gave field managers and Census HQ much greater information than in previous censuses about how many dwellings were being categorised as vacant and allowed identification and investigation of any unusual patterns of housing vacancy in real time.

Would it not be easier for an enumerator to record a home as vacant rather than calling back to try to make contact?

All of the work undertaken as part of the census by enumerators is closely scrutinised by their field managers and Census HQ and is subject to detailed quality assurance procedures. This is designed to ensure that enumerators record the correct details about every home in their area, including whether they are vacant or occupied.

The enumerators are paid based on how successful they were in collecting completed census forms from members of the public. Enumerators have an average of 430 dwellings in their area. In 2022, they were paid €4.10 for every completed census form they collected. They were only paid €1.20 for each vacant home in their area, so enumerators were strongly incentivised to persist in attempting to make contact with householders.

https://www.cso.ie/en/census/census2022/census2022andvacantdwellingsfaq/

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120908389#Comment_120908389

I guess whether you believe Fingal Co Co or the Central Statistics Office is the more competent body to count these things is a matter of opinion.

But presumably saying "It's complete horse&#@te using census figures on vacant houses." means you agree with me that nothing in the CSO report published yesterday supports the idea that we don't ahve enough housing stock?

And the only thing we differ on is I believe their figures are accurate and you think they are horsesh*t?

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120908151#Comment_120908151

An increase of 220,000 more houses than people does seem like a lot.

But irrespective of that, one thing that was never disputed at the time was that we were in a period of significant oversupply in 2011.

Are you suggesting that is incorrect as of 2011?

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120908746#Comment_120908746

Yup, horse#£&t it is!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/number-of-vacant-homes-may-be-grossly-overstated-1.3220063

Its study, which involved council officials visiting houses listed as vacant, found that only a very small number of houses in the north county Dublin authority area (perhaps only 50 or 60) were genuinely unoccupied, compared with the 3,000 figure stated for Fingal in the official census returns.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120908830#Comment_120908830

You'd wonder why we bother with the Central Statistics Office when we have Fingal Co Co willing and able to do their job better.

Zenify

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120908858#Comment_120908858

In fairness to Co Co. They do an excellent job at every task they put their minds too. Hahaha

L1011

Is there really a need to discuss a different, non agreeing set of vacancy figures every two weeks?

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120909239#Comment_120909239

The only figures I brought up was the entire set of data from the housing report released by the CSO yesterday.

I made the point that there is nothing in it to suggest the current problems in the property market are due to a lack of housing stock.

Seems odd that this should be in anyway OT given the title of the thread, and the current state of the market.

The nature of "Irish property market" chat is there are an abundance of topics within it that there are in some way repetitive.

I get that this issue doesn't interest everyone, but surely in a wide ranging thread that's to be expected, and people can ignore it and concentrate on what does interest them.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120909494#Comment_120909494

It's the incessant arguments about which figures are right that's the problem. The arguments never change and each point has been laboured to death

They are all so massively different from each other, it is likely that none of them are right.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120909239#Comment_120909239

Can a separate thread be setup and the discussion taken there?

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120909532#Comment_120909532

In this exchange the only alternative figures that have been raised are those of Fingal Co Co, and I deliberately avoided getting into an incessant argument about whose figures were more likely to be correct, the CSO or Fingal Co Co.

Stating that Fingal Co Co have disproved the CSO's data by no means contradicts my point that there is nothing in the CSO data to suggest the current problems in the property market are due to a lack of housing stock. Quite the contrary. It reinforces it. It's no skin off my nose if a poster arrives at the same conclusion I do different reasons.

I take your point about the futility and frustration re previous incessant arguments about vacancy figures but I disagree with this: "They are all so massively different from each other, it is likely that none of them are right."

They are massively different because they are comparing different things. Eg the recent exchange about ESB figures.

The ESB figures attempt to measure exclusively the long term vacancy rate. The census attempts to measure a point in time vacancy rate, including the temporary vacancies. The massive difference is very easily explained.

Hence both can be correct.

But what is happening in this debate is people are citing long term vacancy figures as proof of something that you would normally include the short term vacancies as part of.

Don't take my word for it, take the governments in their Vacant Homes Action Plan 2023 - 2026

 Studies suggest a properly functioning housing market will have a base vacancy rate of around 6%

That 6% includes all the sort of temporary vacancies normally required for liquidity in the market, eg between tenants, owners, probate, renovation etc.

Including all those we have a vacancy rate of 7.8%, in excess of what you'd expect in a properly functioning housing market. Those temporary vacancies are precisely what makes the market function, providing liquid stock for healthy turnover.

Yet clearly we don't have a properly functioning housing market.

And posters are saying ignore the temporary vacancies, and citing the long term vacancy figures - eg ESB at 4.3% - and comparing that to the 6% and saying "See, the vacancy rate is very low, that's why we don't have a properly functioning housing market."

This widely held misconception, IMO, is one of the biggest issues in the property market today. I think it is appropriate to be allowed to discuss it in the property market chat thread.

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/df86c-vacant-homes-action-plan-2023-2026/

Beigepaint

Vancancy is a real niche edge case wedge issue tickering on the edges red herring.

Obviously very few people care about it and the few who do don’t care about it that much as when the government introduced a vancancy tax they telegraphed that they would barely investigate and never enforce it and the public said “meh”.

If you want to do something about it send a letter to the editor and spam your TDs.

dontmindme

I'd say on census night there were literally thousands of airbnbs where the visiting tenants never filled in the census sheet.

Furthermore, the CSO themselves state that "A dwelling being classified as vacant for census purposes does not necessarily imply that it is available for reuse."

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120909747#Comment_120909747

I'd say on census night there were literally thousands of airbnbs where the visiting tenants never filled in the census sheet.

Undoubtedly true.

Furthermore, the CSO themselves state that "A dwelling being classified as vacant for census purposes does not necessarily imply that it is available for reuse."

Undoubtedly also true. If a property owner decides to keep a property vacant and not make it available for sale or rent, it is clearly not currently available for reuse.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120909621#Comment_120909621

Could not agree more pages and pages of the same sh1te over and over again.

The point has been made we have all heard it now move on or discuss in a separate thread.

AlmightyCushion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120909669#Comment_120909669

Ok, so 6% is normal and we are at 7.8% and dropping. We have about 2m residential units in the country, 1.8% of that is only 36k units. While an extra 36k units will help it is not enough to fix things.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120910570#Comment_120910570

A peculiarly Irish problem it would seem - our excess supply over what is considered normal in a functioning market is not sufficient to fix our shortage of supply in our dysfunctional market.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120910286#Comment_120910286

Or alternatively if you're not interested in discussing the cso's profile of housing in Ireland in the Irish property market chat thread you could just put me on ignore.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120910592#Comment_120910592

Maybe there is just such an oversupply of houses that all the daft.ie servers cannot cope with the load and so when people try to run a search, the servers can't load up the massive list and throw and exception, causing only a handful to be displayed and tricking everyone into thinking they don't exist? Like a Kaiser Soze for houses?

That makes as much sense as whatever it is you are otherwise saying.