Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121020557#Comment_121020557

I think you’re comparing to the Median full time NI wage which is c.£30,000.

The median full time salary in Ireland is now likely c.€55,000 having been €49,000 in 2019

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/average-full-time-salary-in-republic-nearly-49-000-1.4289348

Anecdotal and sector specific but I know a few people in Financial Services and Legal up there and NI salaries are third world stuff. Newly qualified solicitors/accountants getting salaries of c£35-40k for example.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121021003#Comment_121021003

Those are based on sales not cost of construction.

newmember2

https://raycooke.ie/properties/96-yellow-meadows-grove-clondalkin-dublin-22-d22-k6v0/

Was pitched with a fairly low asking price though...

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121021153#Comment_121021153

Even then may be asking prices, not sales prices so less reliable

The source states: "All prices are average prices per sqm for apartments on offer, regardless of year of construction and floor area"

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121021153#Comment_121021153

I know that's the point I was making. You pointed out that we have one the highest build costs for apartments in Europe and that that was affecting the price of apartments here. I pointed out that the cost of an apartment in Dublin sits in the middle of the table for capital cities in Europe so the build price doesnt necessarily determine the final sale price of apartments. As I indicated before there are many factors that affect the price including demand.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121021438#Comment_121021438

Yes but the point is that build costs in ireland/dublin are far above what they are in several comparable european countries.

Asking/sale prices dont come into it - they are a product of demand. Totally irrelevant. And statista for stats is not exactly the most reputable source

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121021552#Comment_121021552

Who really cares, build cost is irrelevant to everybody with the exception of the developer when the end product is priced competitively with other European countries.

If you have more reliable data than statista feel free to reference it.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121020617#Comment_121020617

More than 2/3 of people working in Dublin live outside it

Dublin has become a collection of socal housing, the uber wealthy and the very senior who purchased before the housing madness really started 25 years ago and an increasing air bnb collection

There are very few Joe and Jane average who are the "community police", this leads to the anti social issues the city is experiencing currently. The transient population are not as invested in the city and won't bother getting imvolved

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121022025#Comment_121022025

More than 2/3 of people working in Dublin live outside it

Of course loads of people who work in Dublin live outside it, considering the Dublin commuter belt includes Wicklow, Kildare and Meath, where house prices are have very little difference to Dublin prices (or, in some cases, are even higher).

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121021018#Comment_121021018

That article is average salary, not median. Big difference. Median is always significantly lower.

Most newly qualified solicitors and accountants in Dublin are still starting on only about €55k-65k, not a million miles off of £35k-£40k (€41k-46k) when you account for the 20%-ish difference in cost of living.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121022223#Comment_121022223

Sorry yes, Median full time earnings in Ireland are likely c.€45k. Gap typically quoted around €10k between mean and median.

30% above NI. Roughly translates across to difference on solicitors and accountants.

Doesn’t explain the full difference in house prices between North and South, but there’s no way to expect them to be equivalent as the thread seemed to be leaning towards earlier. ROI is a considerably wealthier country than NI.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121022406#Comment_121022406

That 20-30% figure is pretty consistent across most cost of living metrics I'm aware of - salaries, pint prices, groceries etc - apart from housing. Which hardly makes the salaries "third world stuff" as you claimed, when the difference in salary is broadly in line with the cost of living difference.

I don't think most posters in this thread would be calling a 20-30% difference in new housing construction costs outrageous. The issue is it appears to be heading towards a 100% difference currently.

wassie

Latest SCSI report issued this morning on commercial construction. No doubt same factors in play in the residential market.

https://scsi.ie/press-release-new-scsi-report-shows-rate-of-commercial-construction-inflation-fell-significantly-in-first-six-months-of-the-year/

The latest Tender Price Index published by the SCSI shows the rate of commercial construction inflation increased by 2.4% in the first half of 2023, down from 3.7% in the second half of last year.

Cost pressures clearly still there but material prices are easing with the exception of concrete.

Acute shortages in mechanical and electrical services - i.e. Plumbers and electricians in particular.

mike_cork

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2023/0825/1401501-mortgage-approvals-fall-in-july-despite-ftb-activity/

"A slowdown in the market meant the number of new mortgages approved in July was down 9.7% on the same month last year and 0.4% on June, despite continued strong first time-buyer activity"

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121022170#Comment_121022170

The Dublin commuter belt is far wider than those 3 counties according to your own observations.

Irish construction sites are full of northern builders! If you drive up the M1 after 5pm it's like a convoy of them heading home!

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023965#Comment_121023965

Don’t get caught out by the poor reporting. The comparison to last year includes remortgages, which was just people racing to change lenders before rates went up. It’s an irrelevant figure unless you’re a mortgage broker on commission as it’s just passing a loan from one bank to another

True new lending to FTBs and Mover Purchasers is up 23% on the same month last year.

Only bright side is it’s marginally lower than May and June 2023 and the average loan value approval to new FTBs has dropped back down slightly after rocketing earlier in the year.

On the concerning side if you’re buying. The 3 biggest months since records began for new lending to house buyers are May, June and July 2023.

wassie

Concerning especially if you want to purchase a second hand house with supply at all time lows in parts.

hometruths

So SBP are reporting that Darragh O'Brien has a genius idea to make apartments more affordable.

1) Buy up all the apartments that developers are unable to sell to investors who currently can rent them out for eye watering rents and yields.

2) Use those apartments for "cost rental housing", though it is still none too clear what "cost rental" actually is but presumably it is less than eye watering.

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/obrien-plans-backstop-for-developers-and-tax-cuts-for-small-landlords/

Hmmm.

How much more is it going to take for people to realise that the government has no real interest in making housing more affordable other than making the subsidies larger.

That realisation would be a good start to solving this problem.

Because at that point people might realise that increased subsidies simply push the prices higher still, at which stage the government needs to further increase the subsidies and so on and so forth.

It's a vicious circle.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121034151#Comment_121034151

This was predicted here earlier in the year, the stupidity barometer has exploded

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121034151#Comment_121034151

So let me get this right. If builders buiold too many apartments and cant sell them the price should come down to a price they can sell them at, right?

But Darragh the dope is going to buy them off them if they cant sell them. Does the idiot not see a major flawe in that plan? Well several actually but the bug one being that if there is a guaranteed buyer where is the price pressure going to come from which should naturally bring the price down for ordinary buyers? The man is a buffoon. He really is clueless and is the enemy of everyone be they renter, buyer or inverstor.

Zenify

Biggest threat to global financial system is currently inflation. Irish government bringing in policies to increase inflation and avoid it from reversing.

Well done lads.

Im getting more cynical every year.

timmyntc

It makes some kind of sense in that it guarantees apartment building is viable so they will keep getting built.

However the Minister for inflation could instead have tried to tackle the build costs and addressed why apartment building was becoming non viable in the first place - instead of curing the disease they are just treating the symptoms.

On the bright side, its better than agreeing to lease the unsellable apartments...

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121035364#Comment_121035364

Supported by the Irish Banks, who are subsidising mortgage rates at the expense of depositors (and then claim how clever they are by making super profits).

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121035890#Comment_121035890

Listening to the business section on TLW last week, it seems we have one of the lowest mortgage rates in the EU, where we used to have amongst the highest. I suspect most mortgage holders would prefer lower mortgage rates than higher deposit rates in the current inflationary climate.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121035775#Comment_121035775

It makes no sense at all.

A large part of the so called viability problem is the land cost.

If the market is not buying at prices based on current land values then land values will fall and apartments will become viable at cheaper prices.

The only thing that will prevent land prices falling is if some muppet with more money than sense decides to pay this deemed "market value", the price point for which there is no market, for every single apartment built.

Normally you'd think that's ridiculous, it would never happen. But who'd have thought it, that muppet is our housing minister.

BlueSkyDreams

The ministers main goal is to reduce the social housing list, but without building any social homes.

Tactic is, by as many apartments as we can (using tax payers money) and then use them to reduce the housing list.

In doing so, we will artifically prop up prices, which makes apartments more expensive for those that can afford them...

Though that doesnt matter, if I get my social housing list down to zero.

Beigepaint

A better solution would be to zero rate the type of building we most need.

Such as zero tax on 6 story or higher buildings inside the canals. Or zero tax on any building 4 story or higher within 2km of a post office.

Taxes can be used as incentives.

Villa05

Germany proposing a 3 year rent freeze

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1695879562750501147?t=HN2beeOFc0cCQDPVwmaBuw&s=09

Villa05

State out bidding the public in the most starved market in the country.

https://twitter.com/killianwoods/status/1695806645488496697?t=vTf4aHuOsajmN5DqjBkB5g&s=09

wassie

This Limerick Chamber are bang on. This nonsense is exactly what is putting the golden goose of FDI at risk in this country.