Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121326415#Comment_121326415

Would they not only compare same sized units?

4 beds with 4 beds etc.

quokula

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121326443#Comment_121326443

It only lists median price for each area, which would presumably include all unit sizes.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121326443#Comment_121326443

Do you really think a newspaper would take into account things that would detract from a nice headline..? 😁

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121326455#Comment_121326455

So a pointless analysis, effectivley.

In the example you gave, house prices have stabilised.

But they would be reported as down 20%, as you say.

Couldnt be more misleading if they tried. :)

Dibus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121304931#Comment_121304931

What I´ve found is that, looking outside of Dublin, prices are still fairly high, though obviously not as high as in Dublin. I would agree interest rates will be slow to reduce but the fact still remains that in Ireland in general, there is so much demand that it has been, still is and seems it will still be a sellers market for a long while.

Dibus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121309493#Comment_121309493

I understand what you are saying but don't fully agree with this. Financial crises happen periodically, and companies go bust, it is inevitable and it will happen at some point again. But there's a lot more control of the banks and also how much the banks are lending which was the main issue back in 2008. With current regulations, it seems to me it would be hard for banks to go belly up. Even if there was a bad economic meltdown, for the sake of discussion, would it affect the property market as bad as you think? I personally don't think so. Simply the current offer-demand balance (or should I say, imbalance) in Ireland won't allow it. I am of the opinion, as many people, that properties in Ireland are not worth what they are asking for and that perhaps a correction would not be so bad and bring down property prices (they are after all, ridiculously high). Back in 2008, money lending criteria was completely different than it is now. There is a lot more control. They only thing that has changed is they've allowed people to borrow 4x as much now which, I think is a mistake, but probably was done to counter the rising interest rates which perhaps may have some effect in the short term.

Sure, there are international problems in other countries which are fueling inflation and prices in general, however, I don't believe they will determine property market outcomes at a global scale.

You mentioned the current situation in the UK. The UK shot themselves in the foot recently with Brexit, yes. Either way, their economic and industrial power is greater than you think. They're in a tough position at the moment but I think they will bounce back, like they always have.

The only way I would see Ireland´s economy in jeoppardy would be if the major tech, IT and financial companies decided to pack up and leave, which is highly unlikely.

Perhaps I'm being too optimistic? I just feel people have been saying what you are saying ´´this is the beginning...´´for such a long time that, yes, it will happen at some point but every year can't be ´´doomsday is coming´´.

Dibus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121319248#Comment_121319248

You make it seem as if kids and/or parents would go mental in an apartment. Go to major cities in Europe, most people, even with kids, live in apartments.

Dibus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121318827#Comment_121318827

Could not agree more. I mean, I get what Dav010 is saying. Of course I would prefer my own private property and garden. But the reality of things is that in Ireland, how people used to live (independent houses, semi-D, end of terrace) is not sustainable anymore in major cities.

A garden would be great for kids to go and play safely but, keeping in mind it rains most of the year, I feel kids are indoors anyway. Plus, communal gardens doesn't mean it's not safe.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121326555#Comment_121326555

Other side of the coin is supply being squished. Leaving aside all the unoccupied apartment blocks that ask for £4k+ a month purely for inventment fund evaluation purposes, very little has been built the last decade.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121326672#Comment_121326672

You missed my point, and I’ve experienced apartment living with kids, in a major European city.

My point was that for many parents with young children, a house with a garden, even a small one, would be preferable to an apartment, hence why there will always be high demand, and prices, for developments of houses.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121324029#Comment_121324029

These are not A rated newbuilds

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121326711#Comment_121326711

There aren’t many “unoccupied apartment blocks”

all these bTR schemes around Sandyford, stillorgan, cherrywood are fully occupied. Event capital dock tower is well lit up at night.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121324053#Comment_121324053

There's also the culture issue. I lived in appts on the continent and rules are very strictly enforced. There was a bi-monthly rota to clean the common areas and if ya failed to do it...u were out. Also strict rules about sub letting or general clutter. Not so here

We are still the wild west here, people do what they like regardless of the rules.

There is far more community spirit and pulling together for the community in rural areas, even if a little overly so.

A case in point would be the Gaa club in Cork that allowed the flooding of their facilities to spare the community

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121326293#Comment_121326293

In Limerick you can buy two bed for 150k it's probably about 50% of build cost. As I said a three bed with decent storage, parking and common external area would require 800k in a decent location. Those apartments you showed are selling for 50-60% of build cost

Our perception of build cost is clouded by our completely dysfunctional system.

We had a discussion recently about the price of new 2 bed apts in Belfast for sale @ 130k, I believe

Are our construction salaries 3 to 4 times greater than NI

Most of our development land changed hands at fire sale prices circa 2012 to 2015.

It is incompetence, greed, cronyism, pandering to vested interests that has build costs where they are

There is no excuse for the build cost of an apartment to be more than twice the price in Limerick compared to Belfast if housing was the number 1 priority of the state.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121327408#Comment_121327408

The comparison of North and South is tiresome, the difference in economies and spec requirements has been done to death. But Belfast is catching up (£2259/€2654m2), so I wouldn’t harp on to much about that difference.

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/belfasts-construction-cost-inflation-highest-in-the-uk-at-11/a813355415.html

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121327560#Comment_121327560

What's your definition of catching up. 11% inflation is less than what's been quoted for the republic for the same period

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121326649#Comment_121326649

As long as we have the FDI jobs in Dublin and an undersupply of accomodation, the prices arent likley to reduce by much at all.

If, as you say, we start to lose those jobs, whether because of a global slowdown or Sinn Fein scaring mobile MNC staff away with punitive income tax rises, then prices will come down.

But so will our standard of living and abiliy to invest in our infrastructure.

We have seen some reduction in tech jobs, but thankfully nothing too significant.

Pharma exports were inflated by covid responses, so they were always going to level set at a lower volume, post pandemic.

We are still seeing good investment in the country in this sector.

I think Sinn Fein themselves pose the greatest risk to a crash in Ireland.

As the previous poster said, we have hitched our wagon to FDI and its worked a treat. But if we tax them into oblivion they will leave and our tax take will go with them.

Everything else will then fall apart, including house prices.

But that will be the least of our worries.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121327788#Comment_121327788

I think Sinn Fein themselves pose the greatest risk to a crash in Ireland.

As the previous poster said, we have hitched our wagon to FDI and its worked a treat. But if we tax them into oblivion they will leave and our tax take will go with them

The greatest crash this economy experienced was from a government pumping property prices.

Stable affordable housing heavily compliments FDI and attracts more.

Homeowners and renters are protected from boom bust policies. This means that the vast majority benefit while land hoarders and developers are not allowed to hold the economy to ransom and can instead participate in a strong economy without 1 sector capturing all the majority of benifits for themselves

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121327942#Comment_121327942

Agreed.

We need to build more homes.

I expect SF will oversee the delivery of fewer new homes than the current govt and will also push FDI jobs away from the country.

At least the current govt has the 2nd part of the equation (strong FDI jobs and investment), although much more needs to be done on the first part - the provsion of housing.

Current govt 1 out of 2.

SF 0 out of 2.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121327993#Comment_121327993

That again is many peoples perception?

Would SF be dumb enough to kill the golden goose?

If the state went on a building program, what would private developers do in response?

Suddenly there would be competition providing supply that have there own land, increased supply may be dis inflationary to existing land (most of it purchased at fire sale prices)

Would developers sit on there hands or perhaps accelerate delivery to get units out and sold before the state thereby offsetting any potential devaluation of their land banks. A second source of supply could lead to a supply surge

Villa05

A story repeated in many towns and villages across the country

Without proper investment in housing, the meeting was repeatedly told, “the local population will diminish to the point that Ardmore will become no more than a notch on a tourist map and a seasonal attraction,” reporter Christy Parker wrote of the gathering in the village......

The chair of the local GAA club Nicky Keating described how difficult it was becoming to field teams and how a detailed strategic plan for the club was all but redundant unless there were new young arrivals coming on stream. In 2008, the St Declan’s club supplied three players to the senior Waterford team which reached the All-Ireland final. Today the club has a junior status.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-41262232.html

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121328184#Comment_121328184

Well SF seem adamant about increasing income tax in the >140k bracket.

That would be a sure fire way to take shots at the golden goose, hopefully without killing it altogether!

It would be great to see the state provide their own housing builds at scale, but do they have the staff? I dont know.

And if they do have the staff, what have they been doing for the past 10 years...

Almost all of the new homes are coming from private developers.

I read that Dun Laoghaire CC built 2 homes in the whole of 2022.

It looks like the target of 30k homes for 2023 will be reached or slightly exceeded and with a slowdown in commercial construction in 2024, we should be able to accelerate residential projects and hopefully hit 35k new homes next year.

If the local councils could start to play their part and deliver homes also, happy days.

But if they are able, I would be imterested to know whats been stopping them building for the previous decade or so.

Dibus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121326812#Comment_121326812

Sorry for the misunderstanding. Yes, I agree they will always be in high demand and most of the time, preferred. At the same time, these properties, unless you're looking at higher end of things, tend to be old, requiring additional repairs and to be honest, even the new build houses do not have that much more space than an apartment (again, unless you're looking into the more expensive ones).

What I was trying to say is that in Ireland, due to the´limited´and fairly expensive land, population growing and on top of all of this, add the current economic conditions (offer-demand, rates, etc), it doesn't seem like a bad idea to me to build more apartments. Land will always be expensive, and financially they should make apartments more affordable than houses. Making more houses won't solve the issue of demand where apartments take up less and accommodate more people.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121328416#Comment_121328416

Apartments should be cheaper, I agree.

But families are always going to prefer own door houses with a garden.

We dont live in a climate where people spend all their time outdoors, in the way families in Spain or Portugal often do.

Ireland is still very under populated outside of Dublin.

There is plenty of space to build, but we need to make the other cities and towns more attractive to people.

Better investment, more jobs etc.

Should we encourage families to live in apartments, absolutley.

But is it going to solve all our accomodation woes and result in a sea change of families choosing apartments over houses?

Not a chance.

Housing capacity is a problem that requires a multipronged approach, there is no single silver bullet.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121328457#Comment_121328457

The idea that since we have greenfield sites that its grand to build 500k more semiDs is stupid in the extreme.

This is why we have chronic traffic and poor transport infrastructure. This is why everyone drives and car ownership is pretty much essential in this country - because all housing is low density sprawling mess.

Thankfully planners recognise this now hence we have guidelines at least for cities to achieve minimum densities (i.e. through apartment blocks).

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121328343#Comment_121328343

Anyone who actually earns north of €140k is probably already using every tax dodge in the book. The real golden goose is corporation tax rather than income tax.

At the end of the day SF's "solutions" may be deluded, but FF/FG who have been in a position to fix problems have shown a clear unwillingness to do so. Meanwhile back on topic as there are enough SF-related threads elsewhere..

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121329362#Comment_121329362

And we should continue with that city planning, I agree.

But there will always be a place for houses, too.

And estates built in rural areas will create density, rather than the 1 house per road you see a lot of down the country.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121329423#Comment_121329423

Yes, sorry a little of topic.

I agree Corporation tax is the real golden goose, but we only have the Corporation tax if we have the jobs here in the first place.

I'd be wary of an exodus of tech or finance employees leaving for London, Lisbon etc because they are suddenly hammered by the tax man. The longer term impact would then be less investment in Dublin, because nobody wants to live there, because they get taxed too much.

The companies then move their hubs outside of ireland because they cant attract the talent and the Corpo tax goes with them.

We have to keep the employees happy-ish, in order to retain the jobs and the tax revenues.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121329714#Comment_121329714

Corporation tax is driven by MNCs booking overseas profits in Ireland so that is really a parallel issue.

Ireland was 52% tax for everything above about €32k when I worked in Dublin but ultimately this is not why I left for London. What people do look at is how much they have left after tax and accomodation, and in my case taxation levels was the final straw rather than the main driver.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121330045#Comment_121330045

Parellel but still linked. They would still likely retain some physical presence, in order to continue to book profits here.

Exactly. You were one of those folks that left because it just didnt make financial sense to stay, as the amount you received after tax and rent probably seemed way out of kilter with what you would get in the UK.

SF are proposing to increase that tax burden for higher earners even further. Those earners are generally more mobile and can up sticks, just as you did.

I am still of the opinion that SF wont make it into govt anyway, as FFG will close ranks on them again.

That said, time will tell and I guess a SF/FF coalition isn't out of the question.