Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

L1011

Something to note is that a BTR apartment scheme of ~200 apartments will probably have five (or less) apartment types and hence five (max) Daft listings. These will persist until the scheme is fully rented; if not forever due to turnover.

BtxKiddo

Would you guys recommend First Home Scheme to a couple in their 30’s that otherwise won’t have a chance to buy without using this scheme?

anyone that bought recently using this scheme?

thank you

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121651215#Comment_121651215

Anything is better than renting. If that is the only option then they should probably chance it.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121651215#Comment_121651215

In a normal market you wouldn't touch with a barge pole as it brings forward demand and once it's satisfied price will fall as there is no further demand unless we go 50% shared ownership.

However we are not in a normal market and if I were you I'd be very tempted to pull the trigger as the minister was warned from every independent voice of the high risks of this scheme. If such a scheme failed there would be a strong argument from participants that the Scheme was flawed and forced upon them by a government that were advised against it.

As with every construction industry failure the negative effects will then be laid on the backs of the taxpayer

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121651215#Comment_121651215

We'll all be paying through the nose for this scheme, if you qualify to take advantage of it you might as well get some benefit from it.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121653414#Comment_121653414

What exactly are the tax payers paying through the nose on this scheme? Much better deal for society than social housing.

Villa05

More sauce

The Cabinet will consider a new initiative which would enable medical card holders to avail of income through the "rent a room scheme" - without any impact on their eligibility for the card.

Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly is seeking ministerial approval for the plan which provides a disregard for rental income of up to €14,000 a year from medical card assessment

https://www.rte.ie/news/2024/0123/1428068-cabinet-ireland/

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121657659#Comment_121657659

Whatever about the benefits for individuals who qualify today, it's emphatically not a much better deal for society as a whole.

It's simply designed to circumvent the CB lending rules, and as such will have two effects - push up prices and bring forward demand. Exactly the same effects as when the Celtic Tiger banks got carefree with their lending. And we've seen what happens when that carefree lending gets withdrawn.

So the taxpayer will ultimately have 100s of millions in equity stakes in private housing. Money that could have been spent elsewhere.

The only way this can be spun as a positive for taxpayers as a whole is if house prices keep on rising, and there is a profitable return on the disposal of those stakes.

But if the effect of the policy is to push prices higher and bring forward demand, it takes ever larger inputs of capital from the state to keep the merry-go-round going. The larger these inputs of capital become the more obvious the burden on other competing services becomes.

With a strong economy and favourable public opinion this can be kept going for a while, but the longer it goes on the bigger the problem the government is creating for itself and society as a whole. The longer it goes on the more money required to keep it going and maintain the value of the previous spend, but simultaneously the longer it goes on the bigger the impact and loss to the taxpayer will be if they withdraw the scheme.

Essentially in the long term there are only two possible outcomes to this - ever increasing house prices supported by ever increasing sums of taxpayers money, or the loss of 100s of millions in taxpayers money due to writing off the equity stakes owned by the taxpayer.

Neither is an ideal scenario for society as a whole. Either way we'll be paying through the nose for it.

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121658007#Comment_121658007

honestly, what the hell are they doing?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121658330#Comment_121658330

Can you imagine paying rent out of income that may be taxed at 50% plus to a landlord with state subsidised A rated housing paid for by tenants taxes.

The landlord pays no tax and rental income does not affect their medical card while the tenants health insurance is sky rocketing.

What are we teaching our youth. I've said it so many times but we are an ongoing experiment in reverse evolution

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121658504#Comment_121658504

Its going to create some morally terrible scenarios. Someone living in social housing, on welfare/public pension, with a medial card, renting out their room to a young person on a low enough salary.

The 'landlord' will be getting circa 1000e a month tax free from welfare, plus say 1000e tax free from renting the room if its in Dublin, plus the free medical care - worth say 100e a month. Thats 2100e net.

If the worker is earning 45k or less a year they'll come out with less than that per month in disposable income (45k p.a. gives a net income of 3k p/m, minus the 1k rent..). As their reward for working 40 hours a week, while their landlord sits at home doing nothing.

All because the government is now absolutely desperate to get any room in the country rented, at any cost.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121658810#Comment_121658810

Can that actually happen? I really hope it cant.

I see a few of these popping up the last few months.

https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-the-apartment-castleview-drive-swords-co-dublin/5557204

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121658504#Comment_121658504

The young are voting for left parties, so they are happy with it and want more of this.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121658839#Comment_121658839

Yes. That exact scenario is what the government is hoping to have happen - thats why they've made it so renting out a room doesn't effect either your medical card or means tested welfare entitlements, recently. Because of the desperation to find new rooms anywhere, at any cost. Because not enough were built over the last 10 years...

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121658997#Comment_121658997

This.

Ireland has consistently voted in parties of neo-liberals, lefties and (in some cases) out right communists and done nothing when they inevitably behave in appalling ways. After decades of this, the civil service and state bureaucracy itself is riddled with such people to the point that if, hypothetically, a centrist or even moderately right-leaning party were to be elected, it would cause near psychotic meltdowns.

Honestly, I think modern Ireland is what happens when a society has lived on easy-mode for such a long time. Unfortunately, things are starting to change, and the realities of living on a finite planet are starting to bite.

Anyways, never let it be said that turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121658997#Comment_121658997

I don't know anyone that calls themselves left or right. Most just work away and wonder despite their best efforts the basics of life get further away from being achieved.

Most people understand that for average/median workers, current housing policy is at fault for that so they want them out.

It's not a left or right thing. It's common sense and there is none in the current government

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121659160#Comment_121659160

That explains why one house I we looked at late last year had an asking price over €100k above the exact same other houses in the estate. When asked the EA said that there was rental income of €12k a year on the shed in the back garden. We made our excuses and left.

Murt2024

I don’t know what I’m working for in all honesty and what I’m saving for. That rent a room scheme boils my blood with anger. On Okay income on 60k a year and saving 1000 a month. Gonna take me 8 years to get the deposit together of 100k.

its just absolutely depressing and am seeing a lot of people in their 30s developing anxiety and depression with regards the housing crisis.

What **** rewards do I get for working. I’d love a house, be on welfare and be able to rent out a room tax free. I could live on that easily.

Just pissed off the situation and at my wits end to be honest.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121659204#Comment_121659204

if things continue all it will take is a few good viral sound bites about the current housing crisis, immigration etc and young voters and not so young could switch to a new party (perhaps a little bit to the so called right than we are used) over night

at present there is no real proper party for voters to switch even sinn fein seem not too bothered with housing crisis and immigration so people will probably vote for independents next time especially at the upcoming local elections

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121659160#Comment_121659160

The Government abolished bedsits, created mayhem in the rental sector and is now effectively encouraging homeowners to rent out their sheds and outhouses as bedsits. We have come full circle. What a joke.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121659386#Comment_121659386

Yes...we don't even have a fake conservative party like the Tories or Mrs Melons over in Italy!

MacronvFrugals

With all that's going on this is fairly mental

https://www.thejournal.ie/plans-to-build-852-homes-in-dundrum-halted-by-one-objection-committee-to-hear-6279112-Jan2024/

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121659571#Comment_121659571

Someone looking to be paid off.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121659209#Comment_121659209

If you are young in Ireland, you are probably asset poor but with a lifetime of earning potential ahead of you to accumulate wealth. You should therefore, if voting in self interest, be supportive of massively increasing taxes on existing wealth (property taxes being the most effective), and lower income taxes to better enable you to build your own wealth.

If you are old, you are likely asset rich but with your earning days largely behind you. You should want higher income taxes on the generation coming after you but the abolition of any wealth taxes which would impact you.

Sinn Fein are in the latter camp. Their main policies are to eliminate the only wealth tax we have. To increase income taxes. They want to decrease the amount people can put into pensions going forward (this doesn’t impact older people who already have their pensions, only young people who still need to build theirs).

Their policies on the key issues are remarkably pro - older established wealth and anti young people striving to earn a better future.

Yet all our young people are voting for them. It is quite bizarre.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121659840#Comment_121659840

Could it be that people will vote for them because they're seen as the alternative? In the next UK election, Labor will almost certainly win through the "virtue" of not being the Tory party. Most who will vote for them are probably not Labor supporters, whatever that entails in the modern world. In other words, it's a case of voting someone out rather than voting someone in because they're perhaps better.

As it happens, I agree with your summary of SF. Ireland is run like an investment fund for the benefit of those who bought into it decades ago. Keeping it going is destroying the country's future.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121659934#Comment_121659934

Absolutely. There seems to be this sense of ‘it can’t possibly be worse’ so I’ll just vote for someone else irrespective of what that alternative actually proposes to do.

It tends to be the case, across the world, that it’s easier to build support in opposition and the sitting government loses support over time.

Either all governments we elect are bad. Or people are easily swayed by big promises from those who don’t need to deliver anything (€300k houses in Dublin for all!). My guess is it’s the latter!

combat14

sounds like appetite for longer term fixed mortgages is increasing after last couple of years of rising rates hitting certainty and pockets

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-wants-25-year-fixed-rate-mortgages-to-become-common-in-the-uk-is-that-realistic-13053914

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121660013#Comment_121660013

I don't suppose anyone is going to get elected by promising a balanced budget (and all that that entails) and personal responsibility anytime soon.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121659840#Comment_121659840

SF in their defense have promised to massively increase house building, which is a key issue for most young people. They'll also increase spending on things like teachers, gardai and nurses - which is also a priority for a lot of people, both young and old.

Their anti-property tax policy is totally bonkers/populist nonsense though yeah, they're the only in theory "left wing" party in Europe thats against the idea as far as I'm aware.

The main reason they're doing so well is people look at the current mess in housing, in education, healthcare, in policing, and blame it (quite reasonably) on FG for having been in government from 2011 to 2024. We're living in a time of massive government surplus to the tune of billions a year, but declining quality of life in many key areas. Its incredibly hard to justify voting for the status quo because of that. SF are the beneficiaries as a result of being the only main party in the Dail not already in government.

SF will almost certainly turn out to be very similar to FF of 30-50 years ago when in office - just slightly economically left of center populists. They're unlikely to actually make much of a difference or rock the boat too much, despite the hopes of left-wing voters and fears of right-wing ones. But they may make things slightly better in their key areas of focus at least.

And governmental change does a democracy good in general. No party should be in goverment for 15+ years straight - competence decreases and corruption increases over extended periods of time in power.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121660109#Comment_121660109

There are building sites up and down the country as it is. The surplus budget is just meaningless funny money. It doesn't translate into resources, and even if it did, we're not going to go from building 35k houses in one year to 100k next year.

Look, everyone know it's just just a case of building more houses, and pretending that it is is simply dishonest.