Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Nobody care about it and nobody will !

The main targets are profit for government support bussiness groups

And votes on next elections for politicians

Couple weeks ago mister Leo and his friend bought house for 800K.Mister Leo as taoiseach earned

Since 2013, the Taoiseach's annual salary is €185,350. It was cut from €214,187 to €200,000 when Enda Kenny took office, before being cut further to €185,350 under the Haddington Road Agreement in 2013.

As minister of enterprise no less includes "bonuses".

You think hi and his friends and collegues from parlament and government worry about the debt ? They does not give a ,...

Money coming from USA investment groups and give job for Paddy "brickie" on site in Ireland ? What the problem ? Paddy has job if somebody cant buy house built by Paddy that is not a Paddy and government problem !

This country need jobs and taxes ! Not houses owners on social welfare !

Now guys some erotic fantasies !

Lets imagine government put ban on foreign investment groups on property market

Cap on renting market as no more 1000 euros for 3 beds in Dublin per month and no more than 3 properties for rent to one landlord

And minimal wage 6 euros per hour with 240 billions debt !

That would be some fun is not ?

I could imagine some of your faces when your property price from 600K could go down to 150K !

And unemployment rate would be the 20 per cent ? We all remember those times with 16 is not ?

So what about that lads ?

Will you still not happy about foreign investment in Ireland ? And what government do ?

TheSheriff

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117631147#Comment_117631147

I still don't see your point.

If there is a house you want & can afford now, why would you hold off 2-5 years as recommended?

Amadan Dubh

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117634806#Comment_117634806

Your big assumption is that there's a house that someone wants which they can afford out there right now - your advice is always applicable "if there's a house you want and can afford now go for it". My point is that there almost certainly is not such a house in the current market with supply at the lowest it's been since 2011! People are in a frenzy with buying that they are compromising on what they actually want and where they want it because of the FOMO they have. I don't know how you could defend the current environment for buyers, it's objectively an absolute sh*tshow. Especially if it involves invoking maximum permitted borrowing and the mortgage rate is only fixed for something like 5 years. A 1% interest rate rise on a 200,000 mortgage would be an extra 2,000 per year to be paid.

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117634806#Comment_117634806

Because waiting you are saving

I work at 20K per year for example and I saved 100K per 5 years

If I will wait 2 years I will save 140K per 7 years and buying house for 80K I will save 3 years of life spending only 2.

Even spending 8K per year for rent I will still saving a year of life.

Do you know how is life on mortgage ? Its even worst then pay rent.

Because if you cant pay rent you simply emigrating

If you cant pay mortgage this will be more difficult

Amadan Dubh

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117634770#Comment_117634770

A stated policy of People Before Profit is to ban corporates from the property market.

After the 2020 GE election when SF ended up with the most votes Irish homebuilders Glenveagh Properties PLC and Cairn Homes PLC saw their shares fall by 11.3% and 8.1%, respectively, Irish Residential Properties REIT PLC's shares dropped by 8.5% and Hibernia REIT PLC fell 7.2%.

These two parties combined have 38.4% and 35.6% of the votes of the 18-24 and 25-34 year olds respectively. It is not crazy to expect that SF could be in government in the next 4 years with a coalition which includes PBP and the scenario with international capital getting spooked could manifest. There won't be any QE to support the economy, like with covid, just because we elect some lefties!

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117634952#Comment_117634952

SF will have some success on market just because people saved some money due Covid

When FG could not run property market from same point with same ammount of savings

Well,how your SF gonna create money flow to building sites when 50 per cent cant afford get mortgage?

Shares been overpriced on very start please dont tell me they worth anything when USA investing funds supporting them value on Irish market

Do you try tell us that politicians as SF worry about housing problem ? Nobody care about it if you still did not understand.

greenfield21

The whole issues around tax, Brexit and the ending of qe and rising interest rates seem to have never materialise to give a fall in prices. So Any significant price decrease will never happen.

Amadan Dubh

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117635136#Comment_117635136

These are all macro factors that are far from being settled.

QE is still in over drive, with a quarter of all dollars printed in 2020 alone, while interest rates are rooted to the floor. See some tapering mixed with interest rate rises and then we will see how stable the economies of the US and Europe are, but to think the current scenario represents stability is to profess that unlimited QE and zero interest rates is a valid way to run economies!

Brexit has only just happened in the last few months, the UK economy is now directly in competition with the EU rather than being a part of it.

OECD and EU digital/corporate tax reforms are only at the initial agreement stages but it's hard to see how it is settled that they will or won't have any impact on us. However, 50% of our corporate tax take and 10% of Revenue's entire tax take comes from 10 companies some of whom somehow pay effective tax rates of 0% notwithstanding this - I'm not sure how this is sustainable; our arguably tax haven status.

Timing belt

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117635246#Comment_117635246

Don’t think anyone thinks QE and negative rates is the ideal way to run an economy but it is no different to cutting base rate which has been done for the past 40 years. The effect of both has the same consequences on the housing market.

MacronvFrugals

5 Mountjoy Square, advertised in May for 295k now up for 390k

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/apartment-5-mountjoy-square-north-dublin-1/3469279

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/georgian-living-in-the-heart-of-dublin-for-295-000-1.4577905

Timing belt

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117636441#Comment_117636441

A 75% price rise 😲

whaccawhacca

It feels like prices are spiralling. Estate agents i've spoken with are reluctant to tell me what the exact sale agreed prices are on particular properties, but they have been in in excess of 15% over asking at least.

whaccawhacca

This was on at 425 earlier in the year, now on at 495

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-9-granite-terrace-inchicore-dublin-8/3466513

Timing belt

Source: BIS (https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/table/h1)

The above table shows the Nominal residential property prices as published on the BIS website. Just said I would share as it shows that Ireland is not an outlier with it's property prices rises.

Marius34

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117636645#Comment_117636645

But it's easy for someone to find outlier for Ireland for one or other direction, if taken extremes of 2007 or 2012.

accensi0n

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117636489#Comment_117636489

How is it 75%?

TheSheriff

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117634885#Comment_117634885

And if prices go up further and don't come down?

You lose out, big time.

Underground

I remember a bit of uproar about Blackrock buying up second hand homes in US at mad prices, between 20% and 50% above asking.

Not long after, that Crazyhouseprices guy on Twitter reported that an unnamed investment fund pulled out of buying two second hand homes in Ballyfermot because of the increase in stamp duty.

It was unverified and it sounded a bit mad to me but has anyone heard of investment funds in the market for second hand homes in Ireland?

I'm all for free market capitalism but this is just not right in my view.

Not really expecting a response since nobody uses Boards anymore because of this dogsh*t new site.

Amadan Dubh

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117639184#Comment_117639184

Yes, just off Merrion Square a fund had been trying to buy up the owner occupier apartments in a pretty old building. Not the Northumberland but around where Mamma Mia Italian is. Gone quiet the last few months however.

In the IT letters today we have Alan Shatter writing about the long term social housing leases being entered into;

Sir,

Observing politics from the outside, there are occasions when Government policy appears to me to be surprising and to make no sense. I then wonder am I missing something as I am no longer on the inside track.

The latest surprise was a relatively recent Irish Times report on local authorities renting for 25 years approximately 1,000 apartments from investment funds to be allocated to local authority tenants. I could not fathom why any local authority would make payments over 25 years for homes in residential blocks it would never own instead of simply borrowing the funds required and building local authority-owned apartments. I also could not fathom the economic sense in a Government facilitating any such arrangement.

So I welcome Patrick Honohan’s article in Saturday’s Irish Times (“Ireland’s foot dragging on tax reform could prove costly”, Opinion & Analysis, July 17th), in which he states that as a result of this “surprising” arrangement “local authorities will be long burdened for lease payments far in excess of the interest rates at which the capital cost of the residential blocks could have been covered”. It is good to learn that there are others beyond the world of political outrage who find surprising and cannot make economic sense of aspects of the Government’s housing policy. – Yours, etc,

ALAN SHATTER,

(Former minister for justice,

equality and defence),

Dublin 16.

There was a good letter from someone who I think acts for a management company of a few small landlord properties as we had a man of the same name from Howth as our agent at one point (excellent relationship with him), writing about the RTB Amárach report published recently;

Sir, – Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien would be well advised to examine closely the findings of the Residential Tenancies Board’s rental sector survey, the results of which were released during this week. This is one of the largest and most comprehensive studies carried out in the rental market, and it puts to bed many of the fallacies regularly put forward on this sector. At last it provides policymakers with hard evidence provided by a very large sample of tenants and landlords.

What does it show? Tenant satisfaction levels are amazingly high, with only 3 per cent dissatisfied with their rental experience.

A total of 94 per cent had no difficulty in paying their rent, while only 25 per cent had had a rent increase during their tenancy.

However, the situation with landlords and the supply side is quite serious. In the past five years, there has been a reduction of 25,000 in the number of properties for rental. And the survey indicates that 26 per cent of landlords with five or less units are likely to sell within the next five years, quoting an unprofitable sector, high taxes, the regulatory environment and closeness to retirement.

Worryingly, these landlords provide 72 per cent of national rented properties. Regrettably, Government policy has been to force out home providers in this sector, which mainly supplies the affordable end of the rental market, while providing tax and other incentives to the large international funds that have tended to generally supply at excessively high rents.

We have a supply problem and basic economics suggests that policy should be designed to attract more suppliers than to force existing suppliers out of the market.

The Minister should be aware that bad policy interventions in a market have bad outcomes. – Yours, etc,

DES GILROY,

Howth,

When the IT letters pages are persistently and unanimously attacking the government's catastrophic failure on housing, something is going to give as there is little to no support for the current road of consistent price and rent increases with muted supply.

jay0109

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117639184#Comment_117639184

I know of one house close to me in Sth Dublin that was bought by a vulture fund (900k region). They have an Eastern European lad managing it and he's around it a lot these days as builders are in modernising it. He told a neighbour there that he is the Fund's concierge/repair man for that post code and that they have several houses bought up in the past 2 years in the area including another one on the same road that the neighbour wasn't aware was owned by them either (neither house had been advertised for sale).

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117639123#Comment_117639123

And if prices will go down ?

SmokyMo

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117639320#Comment_117639320

I know few people who s sole job is to go around Dublin and put together a portfolio of properties for a fund. Whether it is a house or if someone wants to sell a plot of land from their back garden. It is way more common than people realize.

JimmyVik

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117640071#Comment_117640071

I bought a house last year. And before I had even started doing it up to move into the agent who sold it to me contacted me and said an unnamed person was offering way, way more than i paid for it if i then sold it to them.

So I did.

House bought and sold without even moving in and a tidy profit made.

I found out later that it was the council who bought it.

Timing belt

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117640071#Comment_117640071

1.4 houses out of ever 10 sold are purchased by Non-Occupier Which would included government, Institutional investors. I would imagine that this would be higher in Dublin and lower in the rest of the country.

cnocbui

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117639877#Comment_117639877

Where in the developed world are house prices going down? Rising house prices are a near global phenomenon. I get that you are hoping for a global financial crash/recession type event to crush prices, which is ok if you are young and very patient, as in willing to wait decades, but the long term trend for house prices, like stock markets, is one of increase. It's a very poor strategy because you are betting against a clear, near unfaltering trend.

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117640992#Comment_117640992

I bought property in 2007 and lost 60 per cent of price in 2008

Today my property still cost less 30 per cent than in 2007 and if another recession will hit I will lose another 50

If I wouldn't buy it today I could have more money than my property worth in 2007 and buy more property at money spent

I think guys you live in slightly parallel reality or have memory only for 1 day events

By today prices of some property I still see 20/30% lower prices than in 2007 and many people who took mortgages already spent on interest half price of property they own

Jmc25

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117640992#Comment_117640992

Most people borrow to buy a house and their borrowing capacity is linked to their salary. Based on this fundamental factor, prices flatlined from 2018-2020.

Incomes haven't risen since then but people have been able to save significant sums during the lockdowns which are now being spent on property.

Unless people can keep saving at the rate they did during the lockdowns, they won't have this additional money above what they can borrow to throw at property in the future.

It seems to me that 2018 prices are where prices "should" be right now, based on people's incomes. Everything else is down to factors which are unique and won't last forever ie historically limited supply and large amounts of savings.

Agree this might take a number of years to play out.

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117641415#Comment_117641415

You understand that you only realise a loss when you sell? It hasn't gained, nor lost any of its value as long as you continue to own it.

I hope I am not the only one who struggles sometimes to make sense of what you are posting, but you seem to be saying that if you hadn't bought in 2007, you would have more money today, my question to you is, how would you describe the 14 yrs of rent you would have paid up to now, an investment/a loss/savings etc?

random_banter

Worrying about a price crash within the next 10 years is one thing, but what if this is to be your family home for the next three decades? Surely that perspective comes in to it?

We've waited and waited since the start of the pandemic. For the much predicted pandemic dip. All we've seen is prices constantly rising, and bidding getting increasingly competitive, and supply getting worse and worse. I think the only thing that could happen in the next two years is that supply may improve as people move on from pandemic fear. But I don't see a huge drop in prices coming as a result, maybe a moderate one and more choice of housing, that's about it.

In the mean time, we're getting older, living between rental and parents homes, and putting off having children due to not having the space for them, while already in our late 30's. This is a situation faced by many right now. Perhaps paying a premium if you can afford it would be worth it in this case.

It feels like an impossible situation at the moment for people who are just trying to get a family home.

Marius34

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117641654#Comment_117641654

There is an increase in earnings since 2018.

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/earnings/earningsandlabourcosts/

Jmc25

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117641755#Comment_117641755

Yes - meant to say no significant increase.

Amadan Dubh

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117641750#Comment_117641750

I agree but one thing just to add is that the cost of the purchase price is not necessarily the only premium you could be thinking of paying as, whenever the fixed rate period on the mortgage runs, the monthly repayments could be hundreds more per month from very small increases to interest rates (I have only read this and have not done the maths myself (hopefully someone can confirm) but a 1% increase to the interest rate would be something like €3k per year (€250 pm) additional repayments on a €300k mortgage).

drogon.

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117641674#Comment_117641674

If you look back at the post he was replying to, the user said Where in the developed world are house prices going down? Rising house prices are a near global phenomenon. So I am not sure you actually read what people are replying/commenting on.

Amadan Dubh

Almost a 100% increase from 2014 €440k on ppr). Honestly, the market could sustain 20-30% drops in prices without being described as "crashing". Incredible if this tiny, dated property gets anywhere near the asking, it's terribly for €795k.

Check out this property I found using Daft 

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-15-grantham-place-portobello-dublin-8/3471164

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117642509#Comment_117642509

I literally quoted what I answered to. The poster stated he will lose "another 50" if another recession hits. The loss only occurs an a property if you sell. I'm not sure if that can be explained any more simply.

Flinty997

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117615188#Comment_117615188

They wouldn't have needed to make it illegal to refuse HAP and similar if the market was "hooked" on it.

Make it to legal to refuse it and see how "hooked" The market is on it..

drogon.

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117642727#Comment_117642727

I will agree to that, most people that buy property need to realise that it isn't an investment - but rather your home.

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117642669#Comment_117642669

Personal choice, but I would much prefer a place like that than a sterile new apartment. A 3 bed house in that location which could be modernised inside, I don't see your issue with it/the price to be honest.

Amadan Dubh

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117643071#Comment_117643071

It's tiny, has no garden, half a kitchen, BER D1, is in an area not great for having a family. It's €600k at best but that's mainly due to location.

I'm not sure what new apartments are sterile? Most of the rubbish around Grand Canal Dock, IFSC, Sandyford, built in the 00s is sterile and impractical. New build apartments seem to be extremely well built and serviced with amenities.

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117641674#Comment_117641674

I talk not about sell

I talk about I could buy more for same money today

When everybody try tell me that today price is on top high what is not truth

As far I see everybody talk about prices only will go up which is the same truth as prices will falling

Most of you has serious critical thinking shortage and operating lies from media

Also dont forget that building industry are most corrupted industry in a world

The Ireland was heading recession in 2019 and Covid stoped it

The building industry started move forward because printed money from US came to Irish building sites and we have shortage of property due with "bottle neck " effect after Covid because people could not buy property

OK,the property price will rising but this will hit renting market because the more price will rise the less people will afford get mortgage.The less people will afford get mortgage the more people will have renting what will bring price of the rent up

This will seriously affect industries with low paid jobs were we will get labor shortage because high rents .The more wages will have rise the less beef from Ireland will come to Europe market because cheap beef from Poland or Brasil due with good ammount of cheap labor in own countries will push expensive Irish products out.We had this problem in UK,you remeber that ? Same will be in other low paid industries

The bigger salary in Poland and bigger rent in Ireland the more Polish will back home.

The less affordable housing and low wages the more emigration.

Guys,we heading very serious problems.

Also I see builders on mad hurry.I was getting messages from agencies about work about 1 in 4 days.Today I getting 2-3 per day and I started get phone calls from agencies !

Why they hurry if prices will only rise and there is hugh property shortage ?

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117643610#Comment_117643610

Again, had you not bought in 2007, you would have paid rent for 14 yrs up to today, you have no possibility of recovering the amount of rent you have spent during that time.

Over the term of a mortgage, which is typically 20-30 yrs, the cost of buying your property can be expected to fluctuate, that is normal. There is a realistic chance that if you sell your property at the end of the mortgage term, you will recover at least the purchase price, and probably the interest paid on on mortgage, so what is the point of cribbing about the value of your property today if you don't intend to sell today?

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117643447#Comment_117643447

As with all properties, it depends on what you are looking for in the area you want to live. You see a tiny property, I see a 3 bed with character and potential in a location close to the city centre. I used to live not far from there, have to say I loved it. I can see why buyers would be interested, it wouldn't suit you, but then where you live might not suit me.

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117644024#Comment_117644024

Then we speak about different types of the property.

I telling you about sites I bought when you telling me about house.

If you try tell us about rent then tell us about what part of 1300 mortgage montly payment are part of house and part of interest at 3 per cent interest rate for 350 000 price of the house for mortgage for 25 years :)

When 2 beds rent outside Dublin are 750 per month :)

Something tell me that interest I will pay will be the same as rent I will pay for house and the rest lets say 600 are the payment for cost of the house its self

So I dont see the difference pay 750 interest to bank or for rent and continue save 600 for the house.

Also when I pay for rent I getting fridge for free when in house which I have pay mortgage for I have pay for everything,including loans for kitchens,doors,windows .etc.etc,etc

So if I will leave renting property I will simply looking for another

When losing my property which I have pay mortgage I will have continue pay loans for doors,floors,windows,new kitchen,etc,etc

Renting is saving

Paying mortgage is losing because interest is the same wasted money as rent .Plus buying I will waste money for loans getting house better also overpaying for interest.

The only way to save is buy house. for cash or during crash but notmany of us wil have money saved or will get mortgage if they will lose jobs

Disaster for me!

have been renting a great house for the last few years, waiting to find my ideal house. Owner is now moving back in and I am under pressure to move.

nowhere decent to rent and hardly any properties for sale! Now I understand people having to buy in this terrible market!

Hubertj

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117644187#Comment_117644187

2007 was an awful time to buy property. I can see why you’re so bitter about the property market after that. Luckily for me I couldn’t afford to buy back then. I moved to cork in 2007 and might have been able to afford something there but didn’t want to give my money to a langer.

I didn’t buy until 2015/16. Should I give a toss that my home that I’m never going to sell is worth more than when I bought it? Or should I give a toss that my home I’m never going to sell could well be worth less than what I paid for it at some stage?

greenfield21

I think the probability of a collapse like 08 is low. We now have central banks that are proactive rather than reactive. There is ample liquidity in the system now. There will no doubt be ups and downs along the way.

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117644187#Comment_117644187

The rent you pay is saving, paying off the mortgage on your property is losing? Which one of those payments have you a better chance of recovering?

Rough calculation, €350k over 25yrs on a €450k property at 3% works out at an average monthly interest of €480 over the term. The repayment of the principle is around €1100, which is €200 less than the current average rent. Your property would have to rise €145k over the 25 yrs to recover every cent of the interest paid, I'd say there is a reasonable chance of that happening, wouldn't you?

You would also have to consider that your rent would increase significantly during those 25 yrs as your earning potential diminishes. Also, as you approach retirement your home would be paid off, while renting would drain your savings as income comes to a halt.

Underground

Hate to be one of those who speak with erudite certainty but in my view there is no "crash" coming. Housing market is not propped up by cheap credit and an oversupply as it was during the Celtic Tiger.

Right now we have the dual effect of a chronic undersupply and low interest rates which put together are great for increasing house prices.

Not to mention negative interest rates on deposits have been introduced by banks for high net worth customers (ie funds) all over the world meaning those with big money need to find a home for their cash, so we have this ridiculous situation whereby Johnny Wall Street is looking to buy second hand homes in Ballyfermot.

Some think a rise in interest rates will simmer things down a bit. Maybe. In theory it should, according to any economics textbook.

I don't really see any "crash" or substantial cooling off in house prices unless tens of thousands of white collar workers are laid off en masse. That doesn't look like happening either. So we trudge along as we are.

Amadan Dubh

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117644305#Comment_117644305

The big question is whether QE can last forever as it needs to, being the reason the whole financial system has not collapsed - house prices are being propped up by QE. It is directly correlated to house prices increasing, to the point where I would say it has caused price increases. With central banks it seems to be a case of "well we've come this far with QE so we might as well continue" but it is hard to view QE as sustainable - it creates a further divide between home owners and non-home owners which will lead to a situation where wealth is stuck in property with no way of extracting it as the money won't be there for individuals to buy the QE inflated property prices. There might appear to be no ceiling for house prices right now but there is an affordabaility ceiling for individual buyers and it maxes out for even very well paid couples once they need to take on a mortgage of more than €600k, which will continue to squeeze prices from the top down as it started to do in 2019.

I read an article today about the Federal Reserve and an acknowledgement of rising House prices in the US, while at the same time saying that house prices in the future are not known. The quote also spoke of demand remaining high even while mortgage rates would go up, but that they have absolutely no clue about supply of housing. What is scary is that these are the gatekeepers and are seemingly oblivious to the fact that their QE actions are fuelling the demand which is causing the unsustainable rise in house prices. The covid dust really needs to settle fast so we can see what sort of mess economies are in but it is worrying.